Prediction What deals don't get done?

[Chaisa]

Idea based on this thread last year, but in any case will be interested to see who this years Tim Kelly is.

With that said I think most deals are kind of straightforward as a lot of players linked to the exit are OOC this year (unlike last year where lots of contracted players wanted out) so I think most deals won't fall over as clubs would want at least something.

If I had to pick something to watch, it's Daniher and Papley. I get the feeling Essendon might want too much for Daniher which nixes the deal and for Papley to be any chance of happening the former deal has to happen (furthermore Papley has four more years left on his deal which means that the Swans and Carlton's valuations could be way off)

As for those linked to the exit but choose to stay, these are probably smaller fish. If you asked me a few days ago I would've said Elliott, but I think he's gone now. Crouch could go either way. Don't think Wines and Grundy are any realistic chance of leaving this season either.

 

[Scotland]

I reckon one of the teams with a top 10 pick that has identified targets will try and be too clever and end up missing out. So St Kilda with pick 6 and Hill or Carlton with pick 9 and Papley/Martin. Carlton in the harder position wanting a couple of different players and not having the currency for all at hand. If St Kilda downgrade 6 and miss Hill they are nuts.

 

[theyellowsash]

Fantasia because port won't hand over 2 first round picks and the dodo won't do any deal he doesn't 'win'

 

[Chaisa]

I reckon one of the teams with a top 10 pick that has identified targets will try and be too clever and end up missing out. So St Kilda with pick 6 and Hill or Carlton with pick 9 and Papley/Martin. Carlton in the harder position wanting a couple of different players and not having the currency for all at hand. If St Kilda downgrade 6 and miss Hill they are nuts.

Yeah fair point, I'll be interested to see how Carlton balance both Papley and Martin, especially given there's little leverage for Sydney to sell Papley (they probably have the picks for Daniher anyway, just a matter of trading back into the first round/trying to slightly fleece Essendon). Martin being OOC helps a bit though in that the Suns can't hold him to his contract and Carlton finished low enough they could get lucky in the PSD.

St Kilda would be very dumb if they tried to downgrade 6. Sure it might be overs for Hill, but you're paying the big bucks to get a guy with two years left on his deal, expect to cough up high picks. So I imagine they don't try to be that clever, especially given their other targets probably aren't that expensive (Jones, Ryder)

 

[Chaisa]

Fantasia because port won't hand over 2 first round picks and the dodo won't do any deal he doesn't 'win'

It'll be an interesting test as a lot of Essendon player negotiations for them leaving (Carlisle, Ryder) haven't gone smoothly even if they did work in the end. Reckon as things stand it has to be a player swap, as Port's first is probably too much but their second too little.

 

[Northernsoul74]

I reckon one of the teams with a top 10 pick that has identified targets will try and be too clever and end up missing out. So St Kilda with pick 6 and Hill or Carlton with pick 9 and Papley/Martin. Carlton in the harder position wanting a couple of different players and not having the currency for all at hand. If St Kilda downgrade 6 and miss Hill they are nuts.

Saints need to do the Hill deal. Not often a big fish wants to get to them, and he is a big fish.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Can't see the Blues handing over pick 9 for a forward pocket....And that's what it'll take to get him.

Combine that with Dodo's obstinance in over-valuing everything Essendon's way beyond reason, then I agree fully with your O/P

 

[Loken]

Fantasia because port won't hand over 2 first round picks and the dodo won't do any deal he doesn't 'win'

Not even Dodoro would ask for that.

 

[MadMundy]

Langdon to Melbourne

 

[Northernsoul74]

Langdon to Melbourne

Interesting, why? You think he stays or ends up somewhere else?

 

[jessie.dee]

Langdon to Melbourne

Why???

 

[TerryWallet]

Neither Jeremy Cameron or Lachie Whitfield are worth talking about this year or next year. Not leaving.

 

[MadMundy]

Interesting, why? You think he stays or ends up somewhere else?

Why???

I could be completely wrong on it but the fact that there has been barely any news on Langdon's move in weeks makes me feel it's possible that maybe he's staying. Heard he may head to Essendon too. I have no idea just a guess on my part.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Neither Jeremy Cameron or Lachie Whitfield are worth talking about this year or next year. Not leaving.

Take a look at the Hawks board, they think Whitfield is a real chance. Even suggesting Whitfield has told GWS he’s happy to go now. Some very interesting chat over there around pick 2 and Anderson as well.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Fantasia because port won't hand over 2 first round picks and the dodo won't do any deal he doesn't 'win'

+1 Fantasia
He's not bad but I feel most of the perception of his trade value is based on hype generated exclusively by BT comically mispronouncing his name. Port will see through it but Dodoro won't budge.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Take a look at the Hawks board, they think Whitfield is a real chance. Even suggesting Whitfield has told GWS he’s happy to go now. Some very interesting chat over there around pick 2 and Anderson as well.

There's a fair bit of spit-balling going on in that thread though....Nothing solid other than rumours.

The Cogs F/A falling through means we can definitely get creative.

 

[Northernsoul74]

There's a fair bit of spit-balling going on in that thread though....Nothing solid other than rumours.

The Cogs F/A falling through means we can definitely get creative.

I’m expecting some something big/shock from the Hawks. It’s all too quiet.

 

[owen87]

typical weirdly obsessed people with Dodoro.

The only reason Daniher / Fantasia won’t get done (if they actually request a trade) is that they’re both contracted and the club chasing them isn’t willing to put a worthwhile offer out there for them.

Doubt it’ll be an incoming Essendon trade this year, no one we’re mentioned as being in to would involve a complex trade.

 

[Procrastinator35]

I’m expecting some something big/shock from the Hawks. It’s all too quiet.

Kennett did say in his final newsletter to be prepared to lose a senior player or 2....A fair amount of the speculation is happening because of that.

typical weirdly obsessed people with Dodoro.

The only reason Daniher / Fantasia won’t get done (if they actually request a trade) is that they’re both contracted and the club chasing them isn’t willing to put a worthwhile offer out there for them.

Dodoro has 'form' as they say….Fantasia is in Adelaide & DanIher has met with Sydney.

Talk of a first for Orazio is fanciful at best.....2 firsts for an injury-plagued Daniher is Noddy-land stuff.

Bombers posters are the most deluded in the rating of players on their own list....Likely a flow-on effect from Dodoro himself.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Papley is not worth pick 9. Worth around 20

 

[HBF]

Can't see the Blues handing over pick 9 for a forward pocket....And that's what it'll take to get him.

Combine that with Dodo's obstinance in over-valuing everything Essendon's way beyond reason, then I agree fully with your O/P

From an in the know poster on the Carlton board, pick 9 is very much in play for Papley.

 

[ADL9798]

Brad Crouch won’t be going anywhere. His manager is shopping him around to squeeze maximum value out of the Crows contract offer.

 

[HBF]

Papley is not worth pick 9. Worth around 20

He's contracted, so Carlton will have to pay overs

 

[Blues_Man]

Papley is not worth pick 9. Worth around 20

You must be on drugs

 

[kaiserchief13]

He's contracted, so Carlton will have to pay overs

True but that's a dumb trade by Carlton if they give that. Small forwards are not worth top picks. You can have Petracelli for 20