What do we really need from this season?

[StonesThrow]

Competitive in all games, grow in confidence, and end up with a top 5 pick. That’s the dream for mine.

Of course I’d rather more wins than losses, but this is a year we can afford to not make Finals (low expectations) and meanwhile assuring us a strong draft pick with high end potential. Finishing 9-12 isn’t in our best interest this particular year.

If we grow in confidence week by week, we can aspire to be like Sydney this year, with 2 previous years of consecutive bottom four positions. Now they are potential serious contenders.

It's not possible to be competitive in all games, grow in confidence and get a top 5 pick. If the first two happen we will finish mid table and end up with a mid teens pick.

This is the whole point of the post. It's great that we're playing decent football atm, but if we continue, we'll likely miss out on what I think is a key draft for us.

In 5 years time I don't want to be sitting there thinking yes we're competitive, but we lack that real top end talent (esp in the midfield) that nearly always comes from the top end of the draft.

 

[Geoffa32]

Let's hope we don't try playing our poker face again

And hope we have a better understanding of our players worth in the market.

Like Brad, Matt won't be worth what he is getting paid now to other clubs.



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[CharlieCrow]

One key aspect of being a young improving side with an obvious culture build, is that players from other teams watch and may want to buy in.
I'm thinking Lukocius here! He's playing on the wing which is almost a midfielder!!
This is what Port have sold and they seem to have had plenty knocking at their door! I'd be more discriminating than them though!

 

[John Who]

It's not possible to be competitive in all games, grow in confidence and get a top 5 pick. If the first two happen we will finish mid table and end up with a mid teens pick.

This is the whole point of the post. It's great that we're playing decent football atm, but if we continue, we'll likely miss out on what I think is a key draft for us.

In 5 years time I don't want to be sitting there thinking yes we're competitive, but we lack that real top end talent (esp in the midfield) that nearly always comes from the top end of the draft.

I entirely get the point of this thread. I’ve been having same cognitive dissonance since they beat Geelong in round 1 - “is winning a good thing or a bad thing for us this particular year?”

It’s very much possible for us to be competitive, grow in confidence and still get a top 5 pick. I mentioned Sydney as the blueprint for us. I think some of our kids will also tire by the half way mark so results would naturally decline. Then we also have the opportunities to try out various newbies and players in various roles, this allows us the gauge on the players’ versatility, but at the same time, can also favour us having some worse results for a higher draft pick.

 

[ftmch]

Great thread. I've been grappling with this exact question in my own head - it really is a conundrum.

As things stand right now, it's hard to mount any other argument other than 'more of the same, please', regardless of where that leaves us in the draft.

Really, really keen to see what Pedlar brings. There's a few people in the know (not numpties like me) who reckon he's genuine quality, and will emerge as our number 1 mid before too long.

If that plays out, Fog can somehow evolve into a big bodied, highly skilled mid, and Shoey and Berry maintain their current trajectory, then a Jason Horne type pick this year may just be enough to round us out (which there's no reason we couldn't trade up to if we have the intent).

Would be kind of nice if Chayce gets his shit together also. I still reckon there's something there, though I'm losing confidence with every week that passes.


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[Apsaalooke]

I’m hoping that gun midfielder that we need may come from within in the form of Fogarty. He’s been a square peg in a round hole for far too long.

 

[Tex Danger]

It's not possible to be competitive in all games, grow in confidence and get a top 5 pick. If the first two happen we will finish mid table and end up with a mid teens pick.

This is the whole point of the post. It's great that we're playing decent football atm, but if we continue, we'll likely miss out on what I think is a key draft for us.

In 5 years time I don't want to be sitting there thinking yes we're competitive, but we lack that real top end talent (esp in the midfield) that nearly always comes from the top end of the draft.

Brisbane 2018

finished 15th with a percentage of 89% from only 5 wins. Next best in bottom 6 was 77% and most well below that.

That’s a strong percentage for such a low % of wins. the commentary on them was they weeent winning but were always competitive

(next season they’re top 4)

now we won’t be top 4 next season, but their 2018 is exactly what we need

Gold Coast 2019...

also it’s worth remembering our early draw is a lot easier than our remainder of season (it’s the AFL way now, low teams get good early draws soat the half way Mark more teams are appearing to contend for top 8 and struggling clubs can sell hope)

2019 after Rd 4 GC had 3 wins and a 1pt rd 1 loss.

they went on to finish last with...3 wins

this could still be us.

hopefully not that bad but after rd 8we have a lot less games youd expect a win in

 

[CharlieCrow]

Choosing an elite player is a very fine art. Just look at all the clubs that didn't choose Dangerfield. Or almost every number one pick Carlton has had. Or Melbourne. There's lots of luck involved but there had to be some science.
Looking at our recent đrafting, Id say we have some of the science, we have had some luck but we worry about the go-home factor, which may or may not be real, and is also dependent on luck and science!
The answer? Finding us the new Rendell, either to take charge or to consult.

 

[Sanders]

I entirely get the point of this thread. I’ve been having same cognitive dissonance since they beat Geelong in round 1 - “is winning a good thing or a bad thing for us this particular year?”

that is not what cognitive dissonance means

 

[StonesThrow]

Brisbane 2018

finished 15th with a percentage of 89% from only 5 wins. Next best in bottom 6 was 77% and most well below that.

That’s a strong percentage for such a low % of wins. the commentary on them was they weeent winning but were always competitive

(next season they’re top 4)

now we won’t be top 4 next season, but their 2018 is exactly what we need

Gold Coast 2019...

also it’s worth remembering our early draw is a lot easier than our remainder of season (it’s the AFL way now, low teams get good early draws soat the half way Mark more teams are appearing to contend for top 8 and struggling clubs can sell hope)

2019 after Rd 4 GC had 3 wins and a 1pt rd 1 loss.

they went on to finish last with...3 wins

this could still be us.

hopefully not that bad but after rd 8we have a lot less games youd expect a win in

I'll give you Brisbane as they were young and did show some good signs that year despite being inconsistent. Had some tight losses. Probably the best example of looking bright and finishing low. Only difference there is that they were already stacked. The young talent was there on all lines and it showed with flashes of high quality football.

 

[Mego Red]

Keep playing the rookies as we have been.
Get Thilthorpe in as the second tall for minimum 6-8 games.
Offload Crouch for 1st Round compo.
Work out a way to land Horne.
Actively pursue Lukosius.

Crouch is the trickiest part of this.

He will probably get a $600k offer but wouldn't get more than that. That's maybe only a tier 3 compo.

We'd be better off signing him now and still looking for a trade at season's end - but that almost never happens in the AFL.

 

[Thetrader15]

Competitive in all games, grow in confidence, and end up with a top 5 pick. That’s the dream for mine.

Of course I’d rather more wins than losses, but this is a year we can afford to not make Finals (low expectations) and meanwhile assuring us a strong draft pick with high end potential. Finishing 9-12 isn’t in our best interest this particular year.

If we grow in confidence week by week, we can aspire to be like Sydney this year, with 2 previous years of consecutive bottom four positions. Now they are potential serious contenders.

If we can secure 3 first round academy players via the draft to go with the other 2 top 3 academy picks that would also help.

Seriously, Mills, Heeney, Blakely, Goulden and Campbell all via academy picks!

 

[dogs105]

How good would it be to make finals with Berry, Hamill, Sholl, Thilthorpe, Schoenberg, Murphy, McHenry, Jones, etc in the side??

Very long way off, and still not a likely occurrence, but could you imagine if the kids:
(a) get rewards for the pressure game style.
(b) experience finals football.

 

[Golumless]

Choosing an elite player is a very fine art. Just look at all the clubs that didn't choose Dangerfield. Or almost every number one pick Carlton has had. Or Melbourne. There's lots of luck involved but there had to be some science.
Looking at our recent đrafting, Id say we have some of the science, we have had some luck but we worry about the go-home factor, which may or may not be real, and is also dependent on luck and science!
The answer? Finding us the new Rendell, either to take charge or to consult.

Then you think about what everyone who was drafted to Melbourne and Carlton in those periods could have been if they didn't end up at those shitshows. Does Dangerfield even make it to 150 games if he ended up being drafted to the Dees (noting we took a pretty careful route with Danger)?

It seems like the most important thing about drafting has nothing directly to do with scouting/talent id. It's just having your shit sorted out off field.

 

[adelaidecrows]

What we need this season is to pump as many games into our kids as possible. That means the club has to forget about finals. Because what will happen is if we have a good run with injuries and we win enough games to perhaps think about finals we will be tempted to just change on form. Then the same arguments about players playing poor in sanfl and not deserving a spot so players don't get omitted and the golden tickets syndrome starts.

With Talia and Crouch to come back in there is a real chance we can make an impact this season. But what for. We aren't going to do anything in finals, all we would do is cost ourselves higher draft picks to clubs who are engaging in building their youth.

Im not saying we should tank, but the club needs to be finding ways to bring in guys like Thilthorpe, Hately and others. Dmac selection last week was not justified and wasted an opportunity to expose another youngster.



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[arsene wenger1]

I wanna preface this by saying that I love winning and hate losing no matter how it happens.

In saying that, since the end of last year I've been pretty staunch in my opinion that we require 1 more high draft haul in 2021 from a rebuild/list management point of view, considering the high end mids that appear available. We need to round out our midfield with 1 or 2 elite talents. Even with a positive start, you can't convince me that a blue collar midfield can win a premiership. I like Schoenberg, Pedlar and Berry, but I would fall off my chair if any of them turned into a blue chip mid.

I feel like the list is at a really important stage. We've got a profile that is much different from anything in the last 20 years. We've drafted lots of young players since 2017 and cleared out many old ones. It's looking a bit hairy with our 1st round selections from 2016-19, but we've picked up what look to be some pretty good players past that 1st round (e.g. Sholl, Hamill, Schoenberg, Butts, McPherson, Worrell). There's not much you can say yet on 2020's draft, but I rate TT highly and Berry, Pedlar and Rowe all look AFL capable even at this early stage.

Add captain in waiting and one of my favourite players, Doedee, and we have a nucleus with some positive signs. However, even if nicks and co. manage to get our game plan together, I'm still highly dubious whether we have the right players going forward. Will we once again be competitive without having the list to go all the way?

After all this rambling, my point is that I think we're missing 1 or 2 elite mids going forward and that imo this is the year to get them. Finishing 10th isn't going to make this happen. But, looking at how we've started, finishing lower than 10th would probably result in us going backwards from what we've shown so far.

Is it possible to still be happy with our progression in 2021 and still have access to a top 3 pick? I don't think so. What a conundrum.

I was literally about to post something like this until I seen this

we may shoot ourselves in the foot here as we’re potentially looking at a mid table kinda year

this is the year for the gun mids in the draft. Sometimes it’s all about luck and timing

 

[John Who]

that is not what cognitive dissonance means

Cute you're doing your best to stir me for the past few years.
I wasn't trying to define the cognitive dissonance, but merely to summarise the dilemma:
“is winning a good thing or a bad thing for us this particular year?”
Winning - builds positive mindset, winning culture, players more incline to buy-in on the coaches gameplan when they see results etc.
Losing - we get the better deal in the draft picks, better chance of picking an elite player, better long-term outlook if more elite players in the team.

Which way do we wish to go? I would have thought this is the point of this thread.

 

[Dewy006]

I think a mid table finish would be the worst possible outcome for where we are in our rebuild. Fwiw I don’t think we’ll finish mid table, I can see us tapering off as our kids tire and our game plan seems very demanding for a young team to maintain all year.

I still see us Bottom 4. We must make our midfield a priority. Get one of Horne, Sonsie, Sinn. Move heaven and earth to get another first rounder. If McAsey decides to go then so be it, extract maximum value. Otherwise make a tough call on a Laird, Crouch, Smith type player similar to what Port did with Wingard.

Target Luko the year after with a godfather offer as Walker and some others will likely fall off our books. I reckon it would take 2 of our firsts in 22 and 23 to get it done though.

 

[Southerntakeover]

We aren't winning a premiership without elite midfield talent, and so there is a risk in our coming up the ladder now into the territory where its unlikely we'll be able to draft them.

Having said that there was a real risk that we would fall into a 'rebuild loop', where you have to draft to replace failures of your drafting. Once you get into that bubble it is very hard to get out. There is some value in not having our young players mentally broken and building some club spirit. The likelihood is that we're going to have some top 5 picks in the next few years, even if its not this year.

 

[Scorpus]

It depends on the year, but you can have as many as 6 to 9 wins in the year and still get a top 5 pick.

With GWS and Gold Coast out of their expansion period I'd say we could probably get a top 5 pick this year despite ending with 8 wins or so

 

[Mego Red]

My ideal is probably eight wins, and a finish around 12th to (hopefully) 14th.

If we can get a pick in the top 5 or 6 picks, we'll still get a very good midfielder. Plus our kids have had a reasonably positive year to develop in.

Then I hope we really give Nicks and his team the keys to the car. It's no problem to trade aggressively, because I trust that Nicks always keeps an eye on the team unit, and how they're growing together.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I want us to play youngsters but also win as many games possible. I don’t was us to be that team to lose games for the sake of getting a better draft pick. I want us to establish a winning culture not be Melbourne or Carlton

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

*If* we do the business against the Kangaroos and find ourselves sitting 3-1, it will be difficult for us to ignore the possibility of finishing in 8th spot.

Make the 8 and anything can happen is our mantra.

Will we forget that we're rebuilding if we sneak a couple more wins?

What will be telling is when an injury crops up, who comes in?

Also currently we have Talia and M Crouch out of the team. When they return who goes out?

Those questions have different answers if we're rebuilding or if we're gunning for 8th spot.

Our club's over-arching goals will drive the decisions.

 

[UcantCme]

*If* we do the business against the Kangaroos and find ourselves sitting 3-1, it will be difficult for us to ignore the possibility of finishing in 8th spot.

Make the 8 and anything can happen is our mantra.

Will we forget that we're rebuilding if we sneak a couple more wins?

What will be telling is when an injury crops up, who comes in?

Also currently we have Talia and M Crouch out of the team. When they return who goes out?

Those questions have different answers if we're rebuilding or if we're gunning for 8th spot.

Our club's over-arching goals will drive the decisions.

Freo (home), Hawks (away), GWS (home) to follow the Kangaroos game

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[Golumless]

I thought this might happen. I'm not downplaying anyone. If you go back to Schoenberg's draft year, I was probably one of his biggest advocates and I still am. Do I think he or Berry will likely reach the same level as Pendlebury or bontempelli? No. It's okay if you do but I just don't think it's realistic.

Ah right, how we define terms is the issue here, seeing I'd have blue chip as those midfielders who are a step below the out and out superstars. The Steele, Macrae, Brayshaw, Mitchell etc group. Very good mids, and all in and around the mark for an AA spot, without being an almost automatic selection. I'd be very disappointed if Berry and Schoenberg do not end up in this group when all is said and done seeing how they've started their career.