What if history scenarios

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Happy Mastenator

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I have got my own theories on this, but what if in the situation that Operation Sealion succeeded in 1940 and Yugoslavia joined the Axis like they were originally planning too, without a later coup (which occurred in 1941) would have Operation Barbarossa succeeded, especially considering that it would have kicked off a bit earlier in late April/early May 1941 instead of late June?
What needed to happen for Barbarossa to succeed though? How much of Russia did they need to get? Did they need to get all the way to the Volga, or would have taking Moscow been enough?
 

Kangaroos4eva

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What needed to happen for Barbarossa to succeed though? How much of Russia did they need to get? Did they need to get all the way to the Volga, or would have taking Moscow been enough?
We never truly know. I know they at least wanted the Grozny oil fields near Georgia, so the bulk of European Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine.
 

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pugsville

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I have got my own theories on this, but what if in the situation that Operation Sealion succeeded in 1940 and Yugoslavia joined the Axis like they were originally planning too, without a later coup (which occurred in 1941) would have Operation Barbarossa succeeded, especially considering that it would have kicked off a bit earlier in late April/early May 1941 instead of late June?
The Russia Thaw was late in 1941. If the Germans invade before June the roads would still be pretty ordinary conditions, and as weird as it sounds, the crops would not be ripe enough in the fields for the Germans horses to forage , the German army still relied on an awful lot of horses. Napoleon and Hitler invaded at the same time for good reasons.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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The Russia Thaw was late in 1941. If the Germans invade before June the roads would still be pretty ordinary conditions, and as weird as it sounds, the crops would not be ripe enough in the fields for the Germans horses to forage , the German army still relied on an awful lot of horses. Napoleon and Hitler invaded at the same time for good reasons.
True, he diverted a number of forces away from the Leningrad and Army Group Centre (Northern section of the army) to the capture of Kiev for that purpose of seizing the grain fields of the Ukraine and finish off the 600K+ men trapped there.

The roads were always crap in the interior of European Russia and adding in large pockets of partisans, made supply very difficult.
 

pugsville

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True, he diverted a number of forces away from the Leningrad and Army Group Centre (Northern section of the army) to the capture of Kiev for that purpose of seizing the grain fields of the Ukraine and finish off the 600K+ men trapped there.

The roads were always crap in the interior of European Russia and adding in large pockets of partisans, made supply very difficult.
The Russian roads in general were a special hell in spring thaw. It was late in 1941.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa

The german army was not stopped by the weather in 1941. It was a factor but It was beyond the limit of adequate logistical support, it had suffered large casualties in it's fighting formations, (the 1941 campaign was not a cakewalk, the Russians suffered huge losses, but the Germans suffered very significant losses and of their best most high combat value troops ) it's machines, tanks, trucks were bad shape. (the German army was desperate for trucks and had pressed a lot of captured French and British trucks, and civilian trucks into service which often were not built for Russian conditions and there were problems with spares, which was made worse by the vast number of different trucks models in service with the German army)

The German army was exhausted man, machine, animals. To some extent starting earlier may not have helped, the Germans army would still have been bad shape.

there is some debate that pushing on to Moscow rather than the Kiev hook would have been better. But all those troops into hKiev pocket might have been saved from the Russian point of view.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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The Russian roads in general were a special hell in spring thaw. It was late in 1941.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa

The german army was not stopped by the weather in 1941. It was a factor but It was beyond the limit of adequate logistical support, it had suffered large casualties in it's fighting formations, (the 1941 campaign was not a cakewalk, the Russians suffered huge losses, but the Germans suffered very significant losses and of their best most high combat value troops ) it's machines, tanks, trucks were bad shape. (the German army was desperate for trucks and had pressed a lot of captured French and British trucks, and civilian trucks into service which often were not built for Russian conditions and there were problems with spares, which was made worse by the vast number of different trucks models in service with the German army)

The German army was exhausted man, machine, animals. To some extent starting earlier may not have helped, the Germans army would still have been bad shape.

there is some debate that pushing on to Moscow rather than the Kiev hook would have been better. But all those troops into hKiev pocket might have been saved from the Russian point of view.
Outside these good points, Hitler's decision to treat the Ukrainians poorly, instead of harnessing their hatred of Stalin and using the Ukrainians as local support would have helped the Germans immensely and reduced partisan numbers in the country.
 

pugsville

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Outside these good points, Hitler's decision to treat the Ukrainians poorly, instead of harnessing their hatred of Stalin and using the Ukrainians as local support would have helped the Germans immensely and reduced partisan numbers in the country.
You have to remember for Hitler racial policy wasn't some sideline but core. Hitler simply would not have been Hitler or the Nazi's Nazi.

Well the Germans treated the ukrainian poorly in 1917-1918 and relations quickly soured despite a common foe. They were many tensions and troubles that would have been problematic in German occupation of Russia and the Ukraine even if orders had been to treat the people better. In 1812 the French with their logistical system failing, their foraging was a matter of life and death for both the French and the Russian peasants, there simply wanst enough food for everybody. 1941 was different but the Germans were beyond proper logistical support late in the campaign. Once a bitter struggle for meagre food begins between occupiers and occupied begins it can become bitter pretty quickly.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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You have to remember for Hitler racial policy wasn't some sideline but core. Hitler simply would not have been Hitler or the Nazi's Nazi.

Well the Germans treated the ukrainian poorly in 1917-1918 and relations quickly soured despite a common foe. They were many tensions and troubles that would have been problematic in German occupation of Russia and the Ukraine even if orders had been to treat the people better. In 1812 the French with their logistical system failing, their foraging was a matter of life and death for both the French and the Russian peasants, there simply wanst enough food for everybody. 1941 was different but the Germans were beyond proper logistical support late in the campaign. Once a bitter struggle for meagre food begins between occupiers and occupied begins it can become bitter pretty quickly.
True, but the Holdomor made the Russians more hated than the Germans by the onset of Operation Barbarossa. There was the food and foraging issues, but even slightly better treatment might have gone a long way, I.e. Cossack groups, Georgians, etc, although those groups supported due to other reasons.
 

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You have to remember for Hitler racial policy wasn't some sideline but core. Hitler simply would not have been Hitler or the Nazi's Nazi.

Well the Germans treated the ukrainian poorly in 1917-1918 and relations quickly soured despite a common foe. They were many tensions and troubles that would have been problematic in German occupation of Russia and the Ukraine even if orders had been to treat the people better. In 1812 the French with their logistical system failing, their foraging was a matter of life and death for both the French and the Russian peasants, there simply wanst enough food for everybody. 1941 was different but the Germans were beyond proper logistical support late in the campaign. Once a bitter struggle for meagre food begins between occupiers and occupied begins it can become bitter pretty quickly.
Just on the Wermacht being in a brittle state 1941 - while that appears true they backed up pretty quickly again once the winter was over. German advancements were significant up until Stalingrad in early 42
 

pugsville

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Just on the Wermacht being in a brittle state 1941 - while that appears true they backed up pretty quickly again once the winter was over. German advancements were significant up until Stalingrad in early 42
What I am was saying that the German army was pretty much shot it's bolt in 1941 and needed time to reorganise , re-equip, overhaul fill in replacements, that more time a earlier start might not have helped much. That it's exhaustion and end of progress in late 1941 was due to whole mix of factors and people tend to put a lot of emphasis on the weather when they had run their men and machines in to the ground beyond good logistical support.

In 1942 much of that reorganisation, resupply, logistical lines had been moved up and the German army was ready to go again. Though the 1941 campaign losses to the German army were non tribal and they had lost many of their better combat troops.
 

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Kangaroos4eva

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What I am was saying that the German army was pretty much shot it's bolt in 1941 and needed time to reorganise , re-equip, overhaul fill in replacements, that more time a earlier start might not have helped much. That it's exhaustion and end of progress in late 1941 was due to whole mix of factors and people tend to put a lot of emphasis on the weather when they had run their men and machines in to the ground beyond good logistical support.

In 1942 much of that reorganisation, resupply, logistical lines had been moved up and the German army was ready to go again. Though the 1941 campaign losses to the German army were non tribal and they had lost many of their better combat troops.
The Rzhev meat grinder had a fair impact over the late 1941 to mid 1942 period.
 

Run n Spread

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What if..........

September 11 never happened? What if the culprits had of been stopped at check in? as has happened since.

Or if you are of the Conspiracy variety, someone blabbed too often, the plan got leaked, a civilian acted quicker and the jets were shot down earlier etc etc.

The question is would Islamic Terror had such a Global Starting point and would the impetus for the movement ever been created. Granted Islam has always had problems with its extremist element but it is possible they would've just remained as fractious as ever.
 

Run n Spread

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What if (a more difficult one but hear me out)

Australia had cut ties with the British earlier rather than in our early years seeing ourselves British.

Let's say on Jan 1 we ditched the Union Jack from the flag or just became a Republic.

Would we have opened our immigration up earlier? Could we have settled our Indigenous problems earlier and made a go of Reconciliation? Would we have joined the WWs? Would having not been scene as Fresh Meat instead for a conquering army? Was any of this even possible given attitudes of the day?
 

Happy Mastenator

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What if..........

September 11 never happened? What if the culprits had of been stopped at check in? as has happened since.

Or if you are of the Conspiracy variety, someone blabbed too often, the plan got leaked, a civilian acted quicker and the jets were shot down earlier etc etc.

The question is would Islamic Terror had such a Global Starting point and would the impetus for the movement ever been created. Granted Islam has always had problems with its extremist element but it is possible they would've just remained as fractious as ever.
Probably see Bush lose re election and no obama as a result and then no Trump
 

Run n Spread

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An unusual one........

What if the Pill had never been invented? Would have that led to the Feminist movement and the changes we see today? Would we in the West still be a more traditional society?

As a spanner at the time the creators were looking at a Male Pill (but was too hard to invent/too many side effects) what if that became mainstream instead? Would that have changed things?
 

Happy Mastenator

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What if (a more difficult one but hear me out)

Australia had cut ties with the British earlier rather than in our early years seeing ourselves British.

Let's say on Jan 1 we ditched the Union Jack from the flag or just became a Republic.

Would we have opened our immigration up earlier? Could we have settled our Indigenous problems earlier and made a go of Reconciliation? Would we have joined the WWs? Would having not been scene as Fresh Meat instead for a conquering army? Was any of this even possible given attitudes of the day?
No chance. The Brits basically has to kick us into federating and going independent as it was.
 

Hank Scorpion

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What if..........

September 11 never happened? What if the culprits had of been stopped at check in? as has happened since.

Or if you are of the Conspiracy variety, someone blabbed too often, the plan got leaked, a civilian acted quicker and the jets were shot down earlier etc etc.

The question is would Islamic Terror had such a Global Starting point and would the impetus for the movement ever been created. Granted Islam has always had problems with its extremist element but it is possible they would've just remained as fractious as ever.
9/11 was an almighty beat of the butterfly's wings.

Bush defeated in '04. Kerry potentially defeated due to the crash in '08. McCain presumably still runs as the Republican and wins, although in this new environment, probably without Palin on the ticket. US Politics a lot less hysterical, Trump never would've happened. Each president's election/defeat in itself serves as a big what-if.

John Howard may have lost in 2001 without the poll boost it gave him.

Iraq would be a very different place, re-jigging the entire state of affairs in the Middle East

A lot less angst in the Western world regarding terrorism/immigration, and the subsequent policy shifts.


What if (a more difficult one but hear me out)

Australia had cut ties with the British earlier rather than in our early years seeing ourselves British.

Let's say on Jan 1 we ditched the Union Jack from the flag or just became a Republic.

Would we have opened our immigration up earlier? Could we have settled our Indigenous problems earlier and made a go of Reconciliation? Would we have joined the WWs? Would having not been scene as Fresh Meat instead for a conquering army? Was any of this even possible given attitudes of the day?
Assuming an apathetic, although not hostile attitude. It would have changed the make-up of the nation. Instead of being 95% (rough guess) British immigrants for the earlier half of the century, we'd probably have been a lot more mixed-European, more Irish, although overall population a lot lower.

White Australia/Indigenous reconciliation no change.

Probably the same attitude as the Americans had to both WWs. Although aforementioned reduced population might have made Allied defence a lot more challenging.
 

Run n Spread

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9/11 was an almighty beat of the butterfly's wings.

Bush defeated in '04. Kerry potentially defeated due to the crash in '08. McCain presumably still runs as the Republican and wins, although in this new environment, probably without Palin on the ticket. US Politics a lot less hysterical, Trump never would've happened. Each president's election/defeat in itself serves as a big what-if.

John Howard may have lost in 2001 without the poll boost it gave him.

Iraq would be a very different place, re-jigging the entire state of affairs in the Middle East

A lot less angst in the Western world regarding terrorism/immigration, and the subsequent policy shifts.




Assuming an apathetic, although not hostile attitude. It would have changed the make-up of the nation. Instead of being 95% (rough guess) British immigrants for the earlier half of the century, we'd probably have been a lot more mixed-European, more Irish, although overall population a lot lower.

White Australia/Indigenous reconciliation no change.

Probably the same attitude as the Americans had to both WWs. Although aforementioned reduced population might have made Allied defence a lot more challenging.
Where does Obama fit if at all? Possibly runs 2012 or if the GFC stabilises and the Republican candidate who beats Kerry gets a second term he probably wins now instead of Trump and is just starting.

I think this would be better as the times now would suit, he'd be more experienced and wouldn't be stuck with the enormous amount of sh*t he had to shovel early days.

Middle East. Arab Spring or something like it still happens imo.
 

sydney eagle

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I have got my own theories on this, but what if in the situation that Operation Sealion succeeded in 1940 and Yugoslavia joined the Axis like they were originally planning too, without a later coup (which occurred in 1941) would have Operation Barbarossa succeeded, especially considering that it would have kicked off a bit earlier in late April/early May 1941 instead of late June?
How was Sealion going to succeed ? Getting a significant number of troops over to Britain in the river barges that the Germans were assembling would have been close to impossible in anything other than a dead flat calm, and they didn't have enough of them anyway.
 

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