whaT If we’re good now? *nods head*

Kiss from a Rozee

Club Legend
Nov 23, 2018
2,219
3,680
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
On the Couch just did a profile on us. Gerard Healy said “Forget the Lions, it’s Port who should be saying “Why not us?””

1st in time in forward half
1st in forward half intercepts
3rd in forward half stoppages
3rd in contested possession differential
1st in clearance differential
With Gray, Rockliff and Boak at their best we really do seem to have the best midfield around.
 

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El_Scorcho

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 21, 2007
25,124
56,622
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Aston Villa, San Antonio Spurs
On the Couch just did a profile on us. Gerard Healy said “Forget the Lions, it’s Port who should be saying “Why not us?””

1st in time in forward half
1st in forward half intercepts
3rd in forward half stoppages
3rd in contested possession differential
1st in clearance differential
This has been true all year, and we're still 8-7 and don't show up every second week.
 

ozph1870

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 3, 2014
11,029
17,890
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
dallas cowboys ferrari f1
Our utilisation and conversion has been poor, which is not reflected by the stats.
Inside 50 is the greatest hoax stat going around in relation to ports.. It's the way we set up. We quite often trap the ball around the half forward line given us plenty of trivial shallow entries to a clogged mess of players while sides carve us up on the rebound with fast quick movement to an open forward line...
 

davo999

Team Captain
Nov 5, 2009
314
302
Aldinga Beach
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
We need to develop multiple options in the forward line to maximise our forward 50 dominance , too many times we get defensive marks taken against us because of a poor option or kick . I think we should look to spot up options in the forward 50 more rather than on top of Dixon most times even when he’s outnumbered, Howard helped to split the defenders though so that was a good sign
 

shewho

Club Legend
Oct 7, 2005
2,109
3,947
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Are there other teams?
This is the case for us actually being good-

1. Pre round 14 form is irrelevant because we had so many injuries to key players
2. You ignore the WB game because of the atrocious conditions
3. You are left with magnificent wins v Geelong and Adelaide

Therefore we are good.
 

tribey

5 Wins In-A-Row Certificate Recipients '13/'14/'18
Mar 9, 2003
57,786
131,340
Queen St & Peter Rd
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
NUFC, YES.
8% chance of scoring a goal from a shot on goal.

2 goals from 21 shots.

Does that mean Fremantle could have smashed West Coast if it was the other way round?

What is this sport?
There’s certainly been some paradoxical numbers thrown up this year.

The old maxim of ‘bad kicking is bad football’ has never been more relevant.
 

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Andre

Premium Platinum
Sep 3, 2002
23,418
25,590
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Inside 50 is the greatest hoax stat going around in relation to ports.. It's the way we set up. We quite often trap the ball around the half forward line given us plenty of trivial shallow entries to a clogged mess of players while sides carve us up on the rebound with fast quick movement to an open forward line...
Two stats that should be included are score versus expected score (from where shots are taken from) and expected vs score differential. E.g. If we averaged -10 versus expected score and our opponents were +5 it’d be 15. This would give a stat to back up what our eyes show us. The shallow 50’s would also be shown up by shots on goal per inside 50.
 

Pappagallo

Co(m)poster
Jun 12, 2012
16,213
49,195
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
In 3 out of 6 years, we’ve won 5 games in a row. We won those games based on the belief of the team and the effort that the players put in. It’s not a random coin toss where a win or a loss is determined by statistical probability - there is actual method and effort taking place.

That’s why bookmakers don’t use pure probability when setting markets. They take into account prior form, historical precedents, expert opinion, weather etc. There is a historical precedent that this team, under this coach, and when it backs itself in, has gone on a run of form. That’s why the market for this game is set for us being favourites, even though Brisbane is higher on the ladder. That’s where my concept of us having a 50% chance of going on a run comes from - which I stated in my first post by referencing the seasons we did it.

You’re the one bringing up abstract probability as if it has any meaning to sport. It’s not a casino and it’s not a game of chance. If it was, each game market would be framed as 2 to 1 odds without any line and both teams could just flip a coin to see who wins and loses instead of actually taking the field.

Now let’s consider historical probability, which is exactly what I was referencing, since no one can actually predict the future and it’s all we have to go on.

The historical probability of beating Brisbane is around 64% because we’ve won 11 of 17 games at home. It’s 100% at AO - 4 from 4.

The historical probability of beating Richmond is 60% because they’ve only won 4 and drawn 1 game out of 10 games when they play us at home. And we historically play the MCG well - won 20, lost 25 (that includes those rubbish games against Geelong in 2007 and Carlton in 2015).

The historical probability of beating GWS is exactly 50% because we’ve won 2 and lost 2 games against them at home. If you want to go by AO, we’ve won 1 game and lost 2, so it’s around 33%.

The historical probability of beating Essendon is around 43% because we’ve only beaten them 7 times out of 16 away from home. At Marvel, we’ve won 6 and lost 8, so it’s about the same - around 43%,

Hence - 50% chance of winning 5 in a row. It’s actually 59% based on the actual venues we are playing at but I wouldn’t want to nitpick.
Lol carn be honest. The 50% stat was simply 3 divided by 6 times 100.
 

LilyC

Club Legend
Oct 8, 2012
1,732
4,232
Western Suburbs
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
On the Couch just did a profile on us. Gerard Healy said “Forget the Lions, it’s Port who should be saying “Why not us?””

1st in time in forward half
1st in forward half intercepts
3rd in forward half stoppages
3rd in contested possession differential
1st in clearance differential
Great. 8 W 7 L, barely over 50%. We are average. Why is that?
 
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