NO TROLLS What is the actual case against COVID Vaccination?

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PurpleEyes

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AusVax state "AusVaxSafety does not specifically ask participants the reason why they accessed medical care in the days following vaccination. Therefore medical attendance reported may or may not be related to any adverse events reported.".....
Its wrong therefore for you to assume that by saying "1.1% of Covid-19 doses (vs Influenza 0.3%) results in the person seeking a GP or ER/Hospital/medical attention"

In general, I encourage people to critically analyse statistics.
I don't believe the AusVaxSafety data to be 100% accurate.
In fact, I have strong evidence to indicate they manipulate some of the data they present.
But like any statistics regarding Covid-19, I look at the numbers presented and try to see if they can be supported by other evidence.
The Switzerland 0.06% does not pass the sniff test as well as the AusVaxSafety data does.

Regarding the AusVaxSafety seeking medical attendance statistics, there is a significant difference in these numbers being reported to indicate that they are closely correlated to the vaccine and dose. The table below is a summary of the AusVaxSafety data for the Covid-19 vaccines;

1643248446869.png


And again, if you search the AusVaxSafety website you will find other vaccines monitored are generally around the 0.2-0.4% mark for requiring medical attendance.
(NB: Pfizer's Dose 3 for required medical attendance was 1.3% prior to AusVaxSafety taking a month off over Christmas. When they returned, that number had dropped to 0.8%)

I doubt most of the Covid-19 statistics I see. None of it is perfect and we can all pick faults in the data if we look for it.
Australia's official Covid-19 death statistics are obviously inaccurate when I see the likes of a 15year old Sydney boy who dies from pneumococcal meningitis but because he was Covid-19 positive he gets recorded and reported as a Covid-19 death.
 

PurpleEyes

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Hmmm... I wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that ~94% of the population there are double dosed?

Also... I'm still curious, have you ever reported a sore vaccination site for a flu vaccine in the past?

Australia's population is currently about 78% double dosed (over 16% have had 0 Covid-19 jabs).
So no, that does not account for numbers of 159,127 vs 779.
 

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Gruffles

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I doubt most of the Covid-19 statistics I see. None of it is perfect and we can all pick faults in the data if we look for it.
Australia's official Covid-19 death statistics are obviously inaccurate when I see the likes of a 15year old Sydney boy who dies from pneumococcal meningitis but because he was Covid-19 positive he gets recorded and reported as a Covid-19 death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-16/boy-15-years-old-dies-with-covid-19-osama-subuh/100379396

Seems the hospital stated that this unfortunate death was WITH covid, not OF covid. Can you show where this death has been recorded in the official covid statistics?

Also... still interested in whether you've ever reported a sore injection site from a flu vaccine?
 

Gruffles

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Australia's population is currently about 78% double dosed (over 16% have had 0 Covid-19 jabs).
So no, that does not account for numbers of 159,127 vs 779.
The table and numbers you quoted were for NSW NOT Australia. How about you refer to the NSW Vaccination percentages? That's what I did, BTW.
 

PurpleEyes

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The table and numbers you quoted were for NSW NOT Australia. How about you refer to the NSW Vaccination percentages? That's what I did, BTW.

Good point ... so let's analyse that thought ...

The NSW vaccination rates for 12+ are currently 94.7% first dosed and 93.1% fully dosed.
At the time of the reporting period for the week ending 8/1/22 it was about 92.8% fully dosed.

So we can say about 5.5%-6% of 12+ had no jabs as at 8/1/22.

Now if we look at those 159,127 vs 779 numbers in isolation we get;
Double dosed: 159,127 = (159,127/(159,127+779)) = 99.5%
*No effective dose: 779 = (779/(159,127+779)) = 0.5%.
(*NB: No effective dose actually includes 1st dose 0-13 days.)

So when you dig deeper and include your consideration of the vaccination percentages, it further shows those case numbers indicate the double dose vaccinations have a negative effect on protection against infection.
 

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Gruffles

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Good point ... so let's analyse that thought ...

The NSW vaccination rates for 12+ are currently 94.7% first dosed and 93.1% fully dosed.
At the time of the reporting period for the week ending 8/1/22 it was about 92.8% fully dosed.

So we can say about 5.5%-6% of 12+ had no jabs as at 8/1/22.

Now if we look at those 159,127 vs 779 numbers in isolation we get;
Double dosed: 159,127 = (159,127/(159,127+779)) = 99.5%
*No effective dose: 779 = (779/(159,127+779)) = 0.5%.
(*NB: No effective dose actually includes 1st dose 0-13 days.)

So when you dig deeper and include your consideration of the vaccination percentages, it further shows those case numbers indicate the double dose vaccinations have a negative effect on protection against infection.
You do realise you are excluding 46,955 cases where they haven't determined the vaccination status (we have no way of telling what the spread is here) as well as 18,343 cases who are unvaccinated due to ineligibility? At the bare minimum you should be including the 18,343 as they currently have received no effective dose.

I'm curious... have you reviewed Table 5 on page 7 of the document you originally linked to start this off? The one that shows hospitalisation and death statistics based on vaccination status?
Screen Shot 2022-01-27 at 1.57.11 pm.png


Seems being vaccinated is having a positive impact on hospitalisation and death.

Also... you seem to be ignoring my question on whether you've ever reported a sore injection site for a flu vaccination so I'll assume that your answer is "no".
 

PurpleEyes

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-16/boy-15-years-old-dies-with-covid-19-osama-subuh/100379396

Seems the hospital stated that this unfortunate death was WITH covid, not OF covid. Can you show where this death has been recorded in the official covid statistics?

Also... still interested in whether you've ever reported a sore injection site from a flu vaccine?

I can.
I have been documenting and recording the TGA table that breaks down Covid-19 deaths by age.
Below is my accounting for the 5 deaths under 20 years of age as at 13/1/22;

From the Australian Health department website as at 13/1/22;
( source: https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19/case-numbers-and-statistics )
1643251878747.png

My account of each of the 5 deaths aged 0 to 19 (ordered newest to oldest) with quotes from news articles reporting their deaths;

#5
0-9 Year old Male; Jan ‘22, NSW 3 year old, Sebastian Moroney,
“Born with a rare genetic condition known as Niemann-Pick, Sebastian was not expected to live beyond a few years, his mother Jordana said.
‘He was palliative with the existing condition so we knew we were on borrowed time,’ “


1643252202981.png


#4
0-9 Year old Female; Dec ’21, SA 13months old, Dakota Conry.
"She was COVID-positive but it remains unclear whether coronavirus was the cause of the 13-month-old's death, and a report is being prepared for the SA coroner."
“A COVID-positive child under the age of two has, sadly, passed away,” Mr Marshall said.
“This is still being determined as to the cause of death. Obviously, we will refer this to the coroner.”
Mr Marshall said if a person died while infected with COVID-19 it did not necessarily mean that was the cause of death.
“We will need to do that investigation. Obviously, it’s a tragic circumstance for the family,” he said.


#3
0-9 Year old Female; Nov ’21, VIC, <10 year old.
"A Victorian child under 10 with "serious comorbidities" has died after contracting COVID-19, becoming the nation's youngest person to die with the virus."

#2
10-19 Year old Female; Oct ‘21, VIC, 15 year old girl.
"A 15-year-old girl has died with Covid in Victoria, making her the state’s youngest victim of the pandemic so far.
Testing commander Jeroen Weimar said he would not comment on the circumstances but that she had a number of conditions, and contracted the virus."


#1
10-19 Year old Male; Aug ‘21, NSW, 15 year old, Osama Suduh.
"The teenager from southwest Sydney died in August after contracting pneumococcal meningitis, and while he was also COVID-positive it was not the reason for his hospitalisation or death."

Australia has a population (0-19 years old) of about 6.4million children and these 5 listed above are our only reported Covid-19 deaths in almost 2 years of the pandemic.
 

PurpleEyes

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You do realise you are excluding 46,955 cases where they haven't determined the vaccination status (we have no way of telling what the spread is here) as well as 18,343 cases who are unvaccinated due to ineligibility? At the bare minimum you should be including the 18,343 as they currently have received no effective dose.

I'm curious... have you reviewed Table 5 on page 7 of the document you originally linked to start this off? The one that shows hospitalisation and death statistics based on vaccination status?
View attachment 1317018

Seems being vaccinated is having a positive impact on hospitalisation and death.

Also... you seem to be ignoring my question on whether you've ever reported a sore injection site for a flu vaccination so I'll assume that your answer is "no".

Why are you referencing a table that shows data back to the 26/11/21?
That is the past with completely different vaccination rates and considerations.
Why don't you want to continue to discuss the most recent data reported that relates more to our current environment?
 

PurpleEyes

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Also... you seem to be ignoring my question on whether you've ever reported a sore injection site for a flu vaccination so I'll assume that your answer is "no".

On this occasion your assumption would be correct.

It would be difficult for me to report a sore injection site for a flu vaccination when I have never had a flu vaccination.
(and for that matter, never had influenza either ... as far as I'm aware).
 

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The 747

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In general, I encourage people to critically analyse statistics.

You have pretty clearly demonstrated over the past few pages that you have no idea what this concept means or how to apply it. Like all of your ilk, when people point out where you are clearly wrong, you ignore it and spew out some more tables/stats/long posts.
 

PurpleEyes

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You have pretty clearly demonstrated over the past few pages that you have no idea what this concept means or how to apply it. Like all of your ilk, when people point out where you are clearly wrong, you ignore it and spew out some more tables/stats/long posts.

Please feel free to summarise these points where I have been clearly wrong and I will address them.
 

Gruffles

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Why are you referencing a table that shows data back to the 26/11/21?
That is the past with completely different vaccination rates and considerations.
Why don't you want to continue to discuss the most recent data reported that relates more to our current environment?
Not going to comment on the first part of my post pointing out the folly of not including 18,343 cases in your numbers where I am discussing the most recent data that you're presenting? Excluding these cases completely invalidates your analysis. Also... it's a bit odd that you are accusing me of not wanting to discuss the data while we are discussing the data.

I would interpret the current case numbers as a pointer to the importance to have a booster shot rather than anything else. If you refer to the breakdown of cases around August last year then the unvaccinated are way over represented compared to those that had 2 doses. Avoiding that in the current environment is important, wouldn't you think? I'd imagine a significant proportion of the "2 doses" group have not had a third dose and we have quite a bit of variance in the levels of protection within this group.
 
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Gruffles

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#1
10-19 Year old Male; Aug ‘21, NSW, 15 year old, Osama Suduh.
"The teenager from southwest Sydney died in August after contracting pneumococcal meningitis, and while he was also COVID-positive it was not the reason for his hospitalisation or death."

Potentially the coroner investigation post Osama's death revealed more information that lead to it being recorded as a covid death? kingswood71 may be able to comment more on this? This could be a case of Primary COD vs contributing factors?

Potentially the death within that 10-19 male range wasn't reported in the media at the parents behest?

This is outside of my knowledge so can only speculate here.
 

PurpleEyes

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Potentially the coroner investigation post Osama's death revealed more information that lead to it being recorded as a covid death? kingswood71 may be able to comment more on this? This could be a case of Primary COD vs contributing factors?

Potentially the death within that 10-19 male range wasn't reported in the media at the parents behest?

This is outside of my knowledge so can only speculate here.
Deaths typically get reported in those Health department tables very quickly.
I see them in there the day of or after the relevant state Health officers talk about the deaths.
That is, I do not believe they wait for coroners reports.
And certainly my experience is I have been able to match up the dates with the changes in the tables to the dates of those news articles about the 0-19 year olds.
I would believe that if a coroners reports shows it wasn't a Covid-19 death then they may remove them from the table, but I've seen no evidence of that during my monitoring.
 

PurpleEyes

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Not going to comment on the first part of my post pointing out the folly of not including 18,343 cases in your numbers where I am discussing the most recent data that you're presenting? Excluding these cases completely invalidates your analysis. Also... it's a bit odd that you are accusing me of not wanting to discuss the data while we are discussing the data.

I would interpret the current case numbers as a pointer to the importance to have a booster shot rather than anything else. If you refer to the breakdown of cases around August last year then the unvaccinated are way over represented compared to those that had 2 doses. Avoiding that in the current environment is important, wouldn't you think? I'd imagine a significant proportion of the "2 doses" group have not had a third dose and we have quite a bit of variance in the levels of protection within this group.

I didn't exclude those groups you focus on. I actually even mentioned they existed in my initial post about the case numbers.
If I was cherry picking and trying to exaggerate my argument I would have added the 1st dosed numbers 14+ days in to the equation making it look even worse. And also remember those 779 no effective dose numbers include 1st dosed 0-13 days.

I find the fact that there are 46,955 Under Investigation very dodgy and remarkable that this far in to the pandemic they fail to know who is and isn't vaccinated. Another reason why I don't trust these NSW Health reported statistics. I don't blame you for questioning it. You should.

How can I include those 18,343 for <12 year olds unless that is broken down in to the same vaccination classifications (ie. 2 dosed, 1 dosed 14+ days, no effective dose, unidentified ...) and then you need to also consider the changes to the vaccination rates. That is, as at 8/1/22 NSW population (0+) had about 21%+ unvaxxed.
 

Gruffles

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I didn't exclude those groups you focus on. I actually even mentioned they existed in my initial post about the case numbers.
If I was cherry picking and trying to exaggerate my argument I would have added the 1st dosed numbers 14+ days in to the equation making it look even worse. And also remember those 779 no effective dose numbers include 1st dosed 0-13 days.

I find the fact that there are 46,955 Under Investigation very dodgy and remarkable that this far in to the pandemic they fail to know who is and isn't vaccinated. Another reason why I don't trust these NSW Health reported statistics. I don't blame you for questioning it. You should.

How can I include those 18,343 for <12 year olds unless that is broken down in to the same vaccination classifications (ie. 2 dosed, 1 dosed 14+ days, no effective dose, unidentified ...) and then you need to also consider the changes to the vaccination rates. That is, as at 8/1/22 NSW population (0+) had about 21%+ unvaxxed.
Look, I think you are trying to use some rather flawed mathematical equations to prove some sort of point about vaccine hesitancy which I just can't see any link/relevance.

You can't exclude cases who are not vaccinated. You can't exclude the "under investigation" cases (which, in my opinion, would be mainly made up of unvaccinated people withholding/unable to communicate their status). You are using raw data without knowing any information about that data (e.g. how long ago was their second dose, are any of them 3rd dosed, etc). There are way too many holes in the data to do the calculations you are trying to do.

In any case, I haven't been a part of this discussion for a loooooooong time and have only recently been curious to see what is going on here because, at this point in time, I don't really believe there are any true "vaccine hesitant" individuals any more. Those that were going to be vaccinated, or were hesitant and flipped are now vaccinated, those that aren't vaccinated at this point are never going to be vaccinated.

Given you have never had a flu vaccine, I'm going to also assume you fall into the second category (correct me if I'm wrong). So at this point, why are we still trying to argue/prove anything about the vaccine? There are plenty of stats that support the vaccine's ability to prevent hospitalisation and death over the course of the pandemic. It is undeniable that it has saved lives.
 

Bloods86

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Look, I think you are trying to use some rather flawed mathematical equations to prove some sort of point about vaccine hesitancy which I just can't see any link/relevance.

You can't exclude cases who are not vaccinated. You can't exclude the "under investigation" cases (which, in my opinion, would be mainly made up of unvaccinated people withholding/unable to communicate their status). You are using raw data without knowing any information about that data (e.g. how long ago was their second dose, are any of them 3rd dosed, etc). There are way too many holes in the data to do the calculations you are trying to do.

In any case, I haven't been a part of this discussion for a loooooooong time and have only recently been curious to see what is going on here because, at this point in time, I don't really believe there are any true "vaccine hesitant" individuals any more. Those that were going to be vaccinated, or were hesitant and flipped are now vaccinated, those that aren't vaccinated at this point are never going to be vaccinated.

Given you have never had a flu vaccine, I'm going to also assume you fall into the second category (correct me if I'm wrong). So at this point, why are we still trying to argue/prove anything about the vaccine? There are plenty of stats that support the vaccine's ability to prevent hospitalisation and death over the course of the pandemic. It is undeniable that it has saved lives.
Takes me back to the other day in the Mandatory Vacc / Medical Exemptions thread, where someone brought up recent UK data (mid Dec to mid Jan) and tried to spin anti vaccination efficacy. Interestingly the unlinked cases (to vaccination status) were only between 6-9% of cases (depending on which age bracket), so a more defined picture than the NSW figures mentioned, and that data showed disproportionately more infections among the unvaccinated (I didn't get a response). Posting an excerpt below - note: I only looked at 18+ since that anti-vax poster favoured looking at those age brackets (and 18+ vaccination rates were easy enough to find).

So, in 18 y.o. +, between mid Dec (2021) and mid Jan (2022).

Totals
2,417,051 cases linked to any vaccination status (none, single, double, boosted)
2,030,143 cases where 2 or more vaccine doses
386,908 cases where < 2 vaccine doses (incl unvaccinated)
285,948 cases where not vaccinated at all

Rates
11.8% of cases in 18 y.o +. are not vaccinated at all, for 8% of the 18 y.o. + population (that are not vaccinated at all).
16% of cases in 18 y.o +. are not fully vaccinated, for 12% of the 18 y.o. + population (that are unvaccinated, or only 1 dose).

That's fairly disproportionate to me. And that's with Omicron being the dominant strain (which we know has a large impact on vaccine efficacy vs infection). And that's with all the (logical) caveats and footnotes that authorities place, that often get dismissed, some of which would suggest it's very likely more disproportionate.

Case data (Table 9): https://assets.publishing.service.g...0/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-3-2022.pdf
Vaccination rates: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...stimated-coverage-for-people-aged-18-and-over

Not to mention the other links between vaccination and:
  • reduction in severe illness, hospitalisation and death
  • reduction in infections among the vulnerable in hospitals (if less people with Covid are there)
  • capacity for other health issues
  • reduction in time with Covid (less spread)
  • reduction in time/severity with Covid (better outcomes for business, particularly small business with small workforces)
 
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I like the spirit of this thread so thought I'd put some of my own personal thoughts, props to the OP. Grateful to anyone that takes the time to think through this if it isn't a perspective they've considered. Please don't be too dismissive or feel this is inconsequential in relation to the medical aspect of this question - if you are it will only entrench this view further.

I won't claim to speak on the merits or otherwise of the vaccine itself from a medical point of view, apart from to say that they have been oversold and failed to deliver on their initial claims of reduced infection and transmission - a significant rationale behind the related restrictions and segregation. The main 'pro' as I can see it, is the reduced severity of disease - leading to reduced hospitalisations and deaths (nothing to scoff at).

However, alongside various failures of the public health profession when it comes to the damage caused by lockdowns, ignoring natural immunity, masks, mandates, job loss, and the inability to consider and weigh broader social / political / economic impacts, the distrust of public health authorities is (sadly) justified and has probably done more to fuel anti-vax sentiment than the antivaxxers.

Unfortunately, these issues are tied together in my mind, particularly as vaccines were politically framed as the only way out of the pandemic. But a one size fits all approach to vaccines (and lockdowns / other restrictions) fails to take into account individuals risk factors, i.e. age, BMI, Vitamin D for starters. I'd be very comfortable without a vaccine myself, as I'm sure many people my age and health would be. It just isn't a compelling need, and I don't see the point of taking medicine that you don't, in all likelihood, need at all. As infectiousness of new variants goes up and severity goes down, that equation continues to swing in the "why bother vaccinating" way.

My political philosophy is that individual choice in this matter should be paramount, that consent and persuasion are much better than coercion, and that coercive policies such as mandates, exclusion from society, and threat of job loss are a far greater evil and harm than the virus itself. I know others that have much firmer views than me about the safety of the vaccine itself and, whether justified or not, this causes them tremendous anxiety and mental distress. Even to take something reluctantly under coercion - job loss, social shaming, bullying, segregation - if contrary to one's conscience and convictions, is itself incredibly damaging to their sense of agency and integrity. I think we have lost our sense of humanity through the pandemic and that is incredibly damaging to our communities and society.

I could easily imagine some people would refuse to take it out of solidarity with those who are concerned about it or the other political / social / conscience reasons I've mentioned. I hate the authoritarian measures, the gaslighting by politicians, the panic-porn in the media, and the precedent this has set to dispense with democratic norms, civil liberties, personal freedoms, and the invasion of people's privacy and personal medical decisions. And I think these measures are politically much more difficult to maintain when you have 20-30% of people partially / unvaccinated rather than 2-3% - if you like, their presence in a society is something of a bulwark that acts as a check against the worst excesses of Covid-related policies. For that reason, I commend those who have chosen not to get vaccinated on conscience / political grounds, however small their individual contribution is at such significant cost to themselves.
 

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