What is the problem with Kaiden Brand?

[MrPremiership]

This is his biggest issue, and a large part of it is above the shoulders because he panics when in that situation which exacerbates his problems with ground balls.

When he's comfortable and confident and playing to his strengths he's a decent option, his biggest issue has always been what happens when he's out of his comfort zone and panics

Wonder where he sits for next year. Would have minimal currency elsewhere but isn't getting past Frawley in a hurry

 

[Gralin]

Wonder where he sits for next year. Would have minimal currency elsewhere but isn't getting past Frawley in a hurry

Mohr and Schoey's situations might keep him on the list, if we think we can bring someone else in though....

 

[hawkermitch]

Kaiden Brand being a delisted player came as a shock to me today.

Surely the club could keep him around as depth as the club is still light on for KPP.

Coaches not selecting him to play when they could have when players were out.

I feel sorry for him and worry another club will grab him, I just wish we had more depth.

 

[Big Hotdog]

Kaiden Brand being a delisted player came as a shock to me today.

Surely the club could keep him around as depth as the club is still light on for KPP.

Coaches not selecting him to play when they could have when players were out.

I feel sorry for him and worry another club will grab him, I just wish we had more depth.

I didn't think we would delist either. Was that missed goal against the Kanga's in the VFL Kaidens "Croad" moment?

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Kaiden Brand being a delisted player came as a shock to me today.

Surely the club could keep him around as depth as the club is still light on for KPP.

Coaches not selecting him to play when they could have when players were out.

I feel sorry for him and worry another club will grab him, I just wish we had more depth.

Agreed. Thought with Mohr and Mirra being chopped, Kaiden would be given another year.

 

[Alite]

When Frost came to the club, Brand‘s papers were stamped.

Brand is an excellent VFL player...it is clear that the Hawks could not mould into an AFL player.

I hope he gets picked up as a free agent.

 

[Alite]

Mohr and Schoey's situations might keep him on the list, if we think we can bring someone else in though....

Schoey still on the list... Gralin. Any thoughts!

 

[Hawkboy62]

Sorry to see him delisted. Never quite on the right side of Clarko, and with Frost coming, and the possibility of Big Boy playing back he is not required as a back up.

Played some very good games as a key back, but was a bit of a liability when the ball hit the ground. Pity he couldn't improve that part of his game as he has the size and closing speed to play on the gorillas. Wish him all the best in the future.

 

[eldorado]

I'm fairly certain someone could use him as a DFA

 

[Hawker55]

I'm fairly certain someone could use him as a DFA

He'd be perfect for North as a straight Scott Thompson replacement. Play him Full Back and don't let him leave the defensive 50.

 

[Sirlemsip]

Schoey still on the list... Gralin. Any thoughts!

This is what happens when you post at 4am

 

[The Ghost Of Glenferrie]

I didn't think we would delist either. Was that missed goal against the Kanga's in the VFL Kaidens "Croad" moment?

It's funny, I was at that North game and thought the very same thing - just made mistakes that a senior VFL/AFL player shouldn't make. What was more intriguing for me was the following week at Werribee. At one stage Kaiden went to the interchange and totally lost his cool with the bench and the coaching group. "This place is a f__cking joke, no one here has any f__cking idea, you blokes are f__cking useless." It went on for a good minute or two. At the 3/4 time break he was quite isolated from the playing group standing back from the players and coaches. At the end of game one of the coaches was really trying to get him together. It really didn't look great, but at the time i just put it down to passion.

Anyway, it's a shame its come to this - i always hoped that he would get it together and make it. I really hope he gets another chance at another club.

 

[Birdofprey]

Wouldn’t be easy playing footy for Hawthorn. A lot of expectation and pressure. A lot of spoiled supporters putting you down if youre not a world beater from day one. Playing down back and being one out against the highest quality forwards would be tough. Especially when the ball flying down on your head.

I really like this guy and his fiery nature. I hope he does well at another AFL club and whatever else he does in life.

 

[crazywildhorse]

I guess we’ll never really know what his issue was.
Any chance he could get rookied?

 

[Mercy Seat]

It's funny, I was at that North game and thought the very same thing - just made mistakes that a senior VFL/AFL player shouldn't make. What was more intriguing for me was the following week at Werribee. At one stage Kaiden went to the interchange and totally lost his cool with the bench and the coaching group. "This place is a f__cking joke, no one here has any f__cking idea, you blokes are f__cking useless." It went on for a good minute or two. At the 3/4 time break he was quite isolated from the playing group standing back from the players and coaches. At the end of game one of the coaches was really trying to get him together. It really didn't look great, but at the time i just put it down to passion.

Anyway, it's a shame its come to this - i always hoped that he would get it together and make it. I really hope he gets another chance at another club.

That's fascinating if true. Jesus.

 

[Brishawk]

I guess we’ll never really know what his issue was.

I think I covered it here last year

A lot of people seem to struggle with why Frawley, who has played more bad games than good this year, is picked ahead of Brand. I think part of this anxiety over Brand's absence stems from the dark years from 2009-2012 where the best KPP we had was a young shoey and we had become accustomed to KPF taking contested marks against us. I think this causes us to take a little blind eye to Brand's short comings because 'at least we don't feel like we did back in the dark days of no KPDs'.

However, I have put together a series of graphs which I hope visualises the decision Clarko is making by choosing Frawley over Brand.

View attachment 499409
The figure above represents a quick and dirty microeconomic analysis of Clarko's preference for Frawley over Brand. The x axis is zone defending and the y axis is one v one defending. The red line shows that Brand is a 10 for one v one defending but only a 4 for zone defending. The green line shows that Frawley is only a 4 for one v one defending and an 8 for zone defending. Based on the area under the red line and the green line (20 for Brand, 16 for Frawley), Brand is represented as the superior player over all (in microeconomics these lines represent budget lines so we can view them as potential output...I did mention this was quick and dirty!). IF the only criteria was overall defending ability, Brand would be playing ahead of Frawley. However, this ignores Clarko's preference. The blue represents Clarko's indifference curve or, in other words, Clarko prefers all points along that blue line equally. Clarko's happiness is maximised when the blue line is positioned as far right and as high as it can (but it has to touch one of the lines).

View attachment 499655
Now imagine that you can put that blue line anywhere on the chart however it still must be touching either the green line or the red line. If you move the blue line down and to the left so it is touching Brand's line (see the purple line), you can find a way for Clarko's indifference curve to touch Brand's line, however, the purple line would make Clarko less happy than than the blue. The key to this is the rate at which Clarko will trade out one v one defence for zone defence.

View attachment 499653
In this figure I have increased Brand's one v one defence to 21 in order for it to touch Clarko's indifference curve. Clarko would be equally happy to play Brand or Frawley in this situation as both the red and the green line touch the same indifference curve and Clarko is equally happy with all points along the blue line. However, we had to more than double Brand's one v one defence so that he is now more than 5 times better in one v one and the area under his line is now 42 compared to Frawley who is still 16. So Clarko is equally happy with either player even though on potential, as described in this figure, Brand is roughly a 2.5 times better player! I don't think Brand is that much better than Frawley but even if he was exactly 5 times better (score of 20) than Frawley at one v one defending, he still would not be picked ahead of Frawley as only a lower indifference curve will touch the red line and a lower indifference curve makes Clarko less happy than a higher indifference curve.

View attachment 499654
In this figure I return Brand's one v one defence to 10 but adjust his zone defence to 6.25. At this level Brand's line touches the Clarko's blue indifference curve again. In this case the red line touches at approximately 5 zone defence and 2 one v one defence. Contrast that with the previous graph in which the red line touches the blue line at approximately 2 zone defence and 12 one v one. Remember, all these combinations (including Frawley's point) make Clarko equally happy. In this case, the area under Brand's red line is 31.25 which is almost double Frawley's 16 however it only places them on EQUAL terms in Clarko's eyes. What it highlights is that you can be a lessor player but so long as you are good at what Clarko prefers more, it will be easier to get a game than if you are really good at less preferred skills and poorer at the most preferred skills (i.e. being good at zone defence makes it easier to get a game than being good at one v one defence).

I know what you are thinking, 'Bris', you could have just said that Clarko picks Frawley because he is better at zoning than Brand'. The thing is, I have said it and so have others but people just don't want to believe that Clarko is making a rational choice and instead believe he is just playing favourites. What I have tried to highlight (without going overboard) is that a perfectly rational person could pick Frawley ahead of Brand across a range of potential circumstances even where Brand is more than twice the player as Frawley because of where Frawley is strong compared to Brand and because of Clarko's strong preference for zone defence over one v one defence right up until the extreme right end of his indifference curve. The numbers I have used are not real, I have simply created a set of numbers that reflect what we are seeing on the team sheet every week. Choosing Frawley over Brand is what economists call a revealed preference. Clarko has never picked Brand ahead of Frawley except where Frawley is injured. If it helps you digest it, this is the kind of moneyball analysis which would cause a list manager to recruit the lessor player over the better player because he gives more of what the team needs for less. This analysis could potentially be used to explain a whole bunch of players big footy punters have labeled 'Clarko's favourites' but I'm not going to attempt to analyse anyone else. Use you imaginations

I'd suggest Mira playing this week is a way of offsetting the lose of Frawley to the structure - and I mean both his physical presence and his voice at directing players around him to be in the right spot at the right time (Brand, I'm looking at you). Anyway, I have glossed over a lot of assumptions built into the model above but I hope I have provided enough of an insight to understand why Brand plays at Box Hill and Frawley plays for Hawthorn. If Brand does get good enough at zone defence (or whatever it is that Clarko judges these players on) then he will get games and in time I'd hope he would become a better player.

 

[The Ghost Of Glenferrie]

That's fascinating if true. Jesus.

At the time, I just put it down to game stress and passion, but after he was delisted today my son came to me and said, “Do you reckon it’s because of that game at Werribee, where he went a bit crazy?”.

Whilst in no way would it have been ‘the reason’, it just got me thinking that perhaps it may have been a contributing factor. After Michael Sodamaco and Mark Williams made their speeches after the game he seemed to have calmed down.

When it occurred, my son and I were no more than a meter away, so we heard it all pretty clearly. He just kept walking (back and forth) along the boundary line toward the old grandstand end with one of the Runners/Physio’s calming him down.

I really hoped he’d make it and earlier in the year hoped he would be tried in the forward line.

After the North game I think my idea should have been filed in the bin under s**t ideas.

 

[WillowSF]

At the time, I just put it down to game stress and passion, but after he was delisted today my son came to me and said, “Do you reckon it’s because of that game at Werribee, where he went a bit crazy?”.

Whilst in no way would it have been ‘the reason’, it just got me thinking that perhaps it may have been a contributing factor. After Michael Sodamaco and Mark Williams made their speeches after the game he seemed to have calmed down.

When it occurred, my son and I were no more than a meter away, so we heard it all pretty clearly. He just kept walking (back and forth) along the boundary line toward the old grandstand end with one of the Runners/Physio’s calming him down.

I really hoped he’d make it and earlier in the year hoped he would be tried in the forward line.

After the North game I think my idea should have been filed in the bin under s**t ideas.

Stop...Come on...I really really doubt it! Clubs give players chances to make mistakes. They’re human. I can’t imagine a single melt down in the heat of a game had anything to do with this decision to not offer him a new contract.

For the record I was hoping he was retained.

 

[Rioli2Gunstall]

Surely will join another club could really be a player, just didnt click in the seniors unfortunately. A solid run in another team and I can see him becoming a regular AFL player.

 

[The Chad and I]

I can't accept that anybody could be watching the same two players and conclude that Brand is anywhere near the calibre of defender as Frawley.

Frawley is only a 4 for one v one defending and an 8 for zone defending

Goodness me...

 

[crazywildhorse]

Surely will join another club could really be a player, just didnt click in the seniors unfortunately. A solid run in another team and I can see him becoming a regular AFL player.

If Ross Lyon was still getting around, he’d be a massive chance to land at the Dockers

 

[Brishawk]

I can't accept that anybody could be watching the same two players and conclude that Brand is anywhere near the calibre of defender as Frawley.


Goodness me...

They were hypothetical numbers to prove a point to show that even if brand was way better than Frawley at one v one clarko still wouldn’t pick him. Frawley > brand every day of the week.

 

[PT Bar None]

Can we assume that there was no trade interest, even for junk picks?

I wish him well for whatever's next

 

[MrPremiership]

Brand was contracted for 2020.

Intriguing we've since delisted him

 

[Hawkas1988]

Maybe I'm seeing things differently to others but Brand was not an AFL standard footballer. Panic panic panic.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk