Strategy What is your teams ideal draft and trade period in 2020?

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longdonkey

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Current list size: 38/6. 2021 AFL List numbers: 40/2
Picks: 1, 8, 20, 30, 44, 48, 60, 74

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B. Crouch - band 1, pick 2
Rory Atkins - band 3, pick 22
Kyle Hartigan - band 5, pick 39

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Picks: 1, 2, 9, 21, 22, 30, 39, 44, 48, 60, 74

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Here's a few notes - In general I reckon you're in the ballpark but a bit over-optimistic in some of the trades.

1. I think you're right that Crows will be looking to bring in 20-24 yo mids with some experience. My List not in order of preference : Sparrow, Dunstan, Valente, Hateley. Although I can't work out if list size goes down you will need to trade out more players. Personally giving Murphy and Stengle long contracts was a bad move.

2. I'd add Gallucci to the delistings.

3. Not sure what Atkins will be paid by his new club but if you get Pick 22 you'll be very fortunate.

4. I don't see Kelly or Seedsman leaving although if you bring in mids you might have to trade someone else out.

5. I see you getting Fantasia next year as a Free Agent no way you'll get him for Pick 44 this year.

6. I could see a deal with Western Bulldogs to potentially not bid pick 1, that would get say Lewis Young to Adelaide for not much to replace Hartigan. Picking up Sam Durdin as a delisted player or Scharenberg also another option.

7. You might need to trade for some later picks if you trade for Hateley and Sparrow because you don't want to get into points deficit with the Academy players because you'll probably have a high first round pick next year too and you wouldn't want to slip backwards.
 
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longdonkey

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For Port its easy

Wines stays

Jones and Schoefield are both sliders and we bid on Borlase and the Crows do not match the bid.
 

Mego Red

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Here's a few notes - In general I reckon you're in the ballpark but a bit over-optimistic in some of the trades.

1. I think you're right that Crows will be looking to bring in 20-24 yo mids with some experience. My List not in order of preference : Sparrow, Dunstan, Valente, Hateley. Although I can't work out if list size goes down you will need to trade out more players. Personally giving Murphy and Stengle long contracts was a bad move.

2. I'd add Gallucci to the delistings.

3. Not sure what Atkins will be paid by his new club but if you get Pick 22 you'll be very fortunate.

4. I don't see Kelly or Seedsman leaving although if you bring in mids you might have to trade someone else out.

5. I see you getting Fantasia next year as a Free Agent no way you'll get him for Pick 44 this year.

6. I could see a deal with Western Bulldogs to potentially not bid pick 1, that would get say Lewis Young to Adelaide for not much to replace Hartigan. Picking up Sam Durdin as a delisted player or Scharenberg also another option.

7. You might need to trade for some later picks if you trade for Hateley and Sparrow because you don't want to get into points deficit with the Academy players because you'll probably have a high first round pick next year too and you wouldn't want to slip backwards.
These are really good thoughts.

Murphy is only signed for next year. He's fine to keep for another year as depth. Stengle was excellent over the last six to eight weeks.

We'd need to go harder at our list if the numbers go less than 42. I had us keeping Mackay and Gallucci for another year, but either could go. Gallucci I'd like to see with another coaching group, but only on a single year deal.

Atkins is VERY hopeful, but every media report suggests band 3?

Seedsman is gone if another club wants him. Kelly might be wishful thinking. Coaches love him, supporters less so.

There's very little interest in Fantasia and he has almost no value. Port seem more likely, but it sounds like he's burnt that bridge. Sharenberg from Collingwood is similar - just not players we can really afford to give game time to.

I think the deal to not bid comes from trading our seconds for the WB first. That works on multiple levels for WB. Maybe we get Young as well, but I don't think we want list cloggers? Certainly not Durdin.

Later picks in interesting - remember, though, a bid in the second round that makes you only go into deficit affects your SECOND round pick in the following year. Same for bids in the third, etc. Doesn't affect earlier picks.
 
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doggy_dog

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Tom Green has no outstanding qualities and is definitely not a Buddy Franklin clone!!
Tom Green has plenty of outstanding qualities and many have called him a Patrick Cripps clone.

He may not have been as hyped as Jamarra but my point is that there is a trend of high-end academy picks slipping further than they should
 

Tbonefreo

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Wanna make a bet? I guarantee he won't be bid on by the Crows. No strings. Yes or no.
I think that if Adelaide's recruiting team have him as the best player then they will. We don't know what their draft board looks like. Adelaide have that bit of savage about them.

They don't need to sell hope. They are established.
 

Tbonefreo

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They don't need him, trust me plenty of GC players have been familiar with Caville avenue haha, I've spotted a few myself when up there in the past!
I recall seeing Karmichael Hunt jogging to a cab carrying a pizza pissed as. That was his broncos days but. Just a lad at that stage and not the coke dealing psycho he was at the suns
 

longdonkey

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These are really good thoughts.

Murphy is only signed for next year. He's fine to keep for another year as depth. Stengle was excellent over the last six to eight weeks.

We'd need to go harder at our list if the numbers go less than 42. I had us keeping Mackay and Gallucci for another year, but either could go. Gallucci I'd like to see with another coaching group, but only on a single year deal.

Atkins is VERY hopeful, but every media report suggests band 3?

Seedsman is gone if another club wants him. Kelly might be wishful thinking. Coaches love him, supporters less so.

There's very little interest in Fantasia and he has almost no value. Port seem more likely, but it sounds like he's burnt that bridge. Sharenberg from Collingwood is similar - just not players we can really afford to give game time to.

I think the deal to not bid comes from trading our seconds for the WB first. That works on multiple levels for WB. Maybe we get Young as well, but I don't think we want list cloggers? Certainly not Durdin.

Later picks in interesting - remember, though, a bid in the second round that makes you only go into deficit affects your SECOND round pick in the following year. Same for bids in the third, etc. Doesn't affect earlier picks.
I've put something like this on a Port board too. I think Durdin is interesting because he ticks a few boxes. He's 198cm key position back age 24 who has been held back behind Tarrant and Thompson and then they played Majak back as well. So there's a lack of opportunity. He was a high draft choice so he should have some quality. The question is why have they delisted him - injury, lazy, character? I don't know anything about him and haven't seen him play.

Fantasia won't end up at Port I wouldn't think not after last year which I thought was all about getting Adelaide to make a contract offer.
 

Mego Red

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I've put something like this on a Port board too. I think Durdin is interesting because he ticks a few boxes. He's 198cm key position back age 24 who has been held back behind Tarrant and Thompson and then they played Majak back as well. So there's a lack of opportunity. He was a high draft choice so he should have some quality. The question is why have they delisted him - injury, lazy, character? I don't know anything about him and haven't seen him play.

Fantasia won't end up at Port I wouldn't think not after last year which I thought was all about getting Adelaide to make a contract offer.
Durdin just doesn't seem to like the level of physical contest you need to be a key back.
 

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It's been a couple of weeks since I posted and things are no clearer at the bombers. Realistically danihar, fantasia and saad remain the main keys and seem likely to go. I can't see much happening with our other contracted or out of contract players despite the speculation.... unless we are offered wild overs, which we won't be.

Reckon Brisbane will offer Danihar enough for first round compo, which will be pick 7 (or 8 depending on whether crows score the same compo for crouch).

Our position on fantasia is not strong, both Adelaide clubs will keep their picks to match father-son/NGA bids. A late second round pick or early 3rd is around the mark in terms of trade value, that's if we cover most of his 2021 contract, ports future second round or Adelaide's should be the goal.

Saad's will be tricky... most his potential suitors picks come a little early (north, carl, hawks) or late (melb) and would take swapping of other picks. North and hawks will take this years picks to the draft and all suitors first rounder next year will land too early (none of them should be overly confident about a top 6 finish). Perhaps saad and our future second (likely pick 22-25) for their first round pick this year and their future 3rd (likely 44-48) would be fair.

out - danihar, fantasia, saad, future second
in - 7,8, future pick in mid to late 30's, carlton's future 3rd.

Ignoring other FA compo current 2020 picks are 6,7,8,41,61,67,70

We should split 1 or 2 of those early picks for multiple later 1st rounders.... Approach Geelong and offer pick 6 and 41 for their pick 13 (tied to the eagles finishing position) and then their own a few picks later.

Now we've established some good will with Brisbane trade pick 8 and carlton's future 3rd rounder from the saad trade and grab their 2 x late picks in the first round.

Ignoring other free agency compo we now hold 7,13, 3 picks between 14-19, 61 67, 70.

While it's totally unlikely they will bite approach Dunkley and try to pry them out of the bulldogs. They have an excess in the midfielders, he would be exactly what we need and they need draft points for JUH... would pick 13 get it done? Then get off to GC and offer them the fantasia compensation for wright.

Out - pick 6, pick 41 Danihar, fantasia, saad, future second
In - dunkley, wright, pick 7 and 3 picks between 14-19

We would then take 6 kids in the draft. Our 4 x 1st rounders. Use 61,67,70 to match for brand, eyre won't cost a pick as he will come later enough in the draft that the points won't be required.

Not accounting for injuries our best 22 going into 2021 could be

B guelfi, hurley, francis
HB ridley, ambrose, heppell
C smith, dunkley, merrett
HF parish, stewart, langford
F Tippa, wright, stringer
C Draper, shiel, mcgrath
Int hooker, laverde, redmond, clarke

I'd be more than happy to take that with gleeson, snelling, zaharakis, townsend, cutler and phillips providing depth while our 2020 draftees develop alongside our other youngsters like BTZ, ham, mosquito, jones, bryan, cahill and johnson.

yeah.... i'm dreaming. But one can only hope!
 

Virgin Dog

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It's been a couple of weeks since I posted and things are no clearer at the bombers. Realistically danihar, fantasia and saad remain the main keys and seem likely to go. I can't see much happening with our other contracted or out of contract players despite the speculation.... unless we are offered wild overs, which we won't be.

Reckon Brisbane will offer Danihar enough for first round compo, which will be pick 7 (or 8 depending on whether crows score the same compo for crouch).

Our position on fantasia is not strong, both Adelaide clubs will keep their picks to match father-son/NGA bids. A late second round pick or early 3rd is around the mark in terms of trade value, that's if we cover most of his 2021 contract, ports future second round or Adelaide's should be the goal.

Saad's will be tricky... most his potential suitors picks come a little early (north, carl, hawks) or late (melb) and would take swapping of other picks. North and hawks will take this years picks to the draft and all suitors first rounder next year will land too early (none of them should be overly confident about a top 6 finish). Perhaps saad and our future second (likely pick 22-25) for their first round pick this year and their future 3rd (likely 44-48) would be fair.

out - danihar, fantasia, saad, future second
in - 7,8, future pick in mid to late 30's, carlton's future 3rd.

Ignoring other FA compo current 2020 picks are 6,7,8,41,61,67,70

We should split 1 or 2 of those early picks for multiple later 1st rounders.... Approach Geelong and offer pick 6 and 41 for their pick 13 (tied to the eagles finishing position) and then their own a few picks later.

Now we've established some good will with Brisbane trade pick 8 and carlton's future 3rd rounder from the saad trade and grab their 2 x late picks in the first round.

Ignoring other free agency compo we now hold 7,13, 3 picks between 14-19, 61 67, 70.

While it's totally unlikely they will bite approach Dunkley and try to pry them out of the bulldogs. They have an excess in the midfielders, he would be exactly what we need and they need draft points for JUH... would pick 13 get it done? Then get off to GC and offer them the fantasia compensation for wright.

Out - pick 6, pick 41 Danihar, fantasia, saad, future second
In - dunkley, wright, pick 7 and 3 picks between 14-19

We would then take 6 kids in the draft. Our 4 x 1st rounders. Use 61,67,70 to match for brand, eyre won't cost a pick as he will come later enough in the draft that the points won't be required.

Not accounting for injuries our best 22 going into 2021 could be

B guelfi, hurley, francis
HB ridley, ambrose, heppell
C smith, dunkley, merrett
HF parish, stewart, langford
F Tippa, wright, stringer
C Draper, shiel, mcgrath
Int hooker, laverde, redmond, clarke

I'd be more than happy to take that with gleeson, snelling, zaharakis, townsend, cutler and phillips providing depth while our 2020 draftees develop alongside our other youngsters like BTZ, ham, mosquito, jones, bryan, cahill and johnson.

yeah.... i'm dreaming. But one can only hope!
Dunkley would be basically untouchable, but if he did leave, we'd be demanding that Pick 7 at minimum rather than the pick in the teens. Or Merrett.

Don't think any of our big 3 would be gettable, but if they were, Macrae is easily the first who'd be poached
 

Kane McGoodwin

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Tom Green was a top 3 talent last year and clubs let him slip to pick 10. It happens
Because the Crows would have bidded, if GWS didn't swap pick 6 & this year's pick 8 for pick 4.

Crows have placed more bids than any other club & will do so at pick 1 if they believe they are the best player... unless a GWS like deal is done prior.
 
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Tbonefreo

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Because the Crows would have bidded, if GWS didn't swap pick 6 & this year's pick 8 for pick 4.

Crows have placed more bids than any other club & will do so at pick 1 if they believe they are the best player... unless a GWS like deal is done prior.
Draft tampering is rife at the moment
 

Blackhawk42

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No huge stars, just cover some holes with astute trades (much like when we nabbed Jarman Impey).

Narkle adds midfield X-Factor which we definitely need. Won't cost us a huge amount either. Geelong arguably need another big body in the midfield so they aren't left with Atkins and Dollhouse running through there when Danger is forward. I'd let Daniel Howe go. Maybe a pick swap as well to flush the trade out completely.

Oscar McDonald isn't a world beater, but we are currently low on key position stocks in defence. We have an ageing Frawley and untried Kosi to go along with recycled Hartley and injured Sicily. OMAC would at least coverage for Frawley or, at best, be a dependable option if Hartley isn't played more next season.
Again, I don't believe it could cost a lot to get him and i've heard his name has been placed on the table as gettable. Maybe even just for picks somewhere.

After that I want us to really nail this draft. Ideally we would focus on speed, class and finishing skills. Tanner Bruhn with our first pick, Bailey Laurie with our second and academy selection Connor Downie with our third. Might require some pick swapping to get 3 picks inside the top 30 to nab these 3 guys, but i'd be doing my best to make it happen. Bruhn has the midfield class and can kick goals, Laurie is a bit more speculative as a high pick but has Petracca like qualities with his agility and disposal. Downie is a big bodied, quick winger who can kick like Isaac Smith but has more ability on both sides of his body.

If this is all we did this off-season plus re-signed the impressive Damon Greaves and late season bloomer Dylan Moore then i'd be stoked. Our best side next season with that youth injection probably wouldn't result in finals, but i'd feel instantly better about our future that's for sure.
 

LoBu

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If you honestly believe that you're delusional.

The number 1 draft pick is mostly used to sell hope for the future. Why would anyone use the first draft pick on a player that won't be there in 2021?

Every club knows this. That's why it won't happen
Winning games sells hope, not the number 1 draft pick - that's actually a little depressing.

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Dunkley would be basically untouchable, but if he did leave, we'd be demanding that Pick 7 at minimum rather than the pick in the teens. Or Merrett.

Don't think any of our big 3 would be gettable, but if they were, Macrae is easily the first who'd be poached
I agree..... it would be a stretch. I just figure dogs are a good club to target this year given you're needing to find around 350-600 points come draft night depending on whether or not JUH goes 1 or 2. Schache has some trade appeal for perhaps a 3rd round pick. Lipinski might net you something around 30-35 as well. Can't see who else they'd be prepared to give up that has trade value. Surely they don't want to take a large first round deficit into 2021 draft!
 

juss

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I think a big bodied clearance midfielder remains on the cards, someone like Sier is a player I've said wouldn't cost a fortune but could quickly improve.

With Bolton now a midfielder, we actually need a classy small forward. Castagna and Aarts are honest battlers, but they aren't dangerous enough to worry the opposition as a scoring threat. Rioli is classy enough, but just too often invisible.

A cheap mature age ruck would help too, even if just for a one year back up deal. Soldo's career is in trouble given he will miss all of 2020 and we don't know what will happen with list sizes. If CCJ comes on and forms a good tandem with Nankervis, that's a good sign, but if one of them gets traded this off season then another ruck is essential.

Id also say there is a succession plan needed for Riewoldt, so either a trade for a young promising KPF could also be a target, but the good ones usually cost a heap so probably better off to try and take one in the draft with our first rounder.

If we believe we can contend again in 2021, then I'd be happy to throw the first rounder at an A grade mid target, and then try and pry a classy small/mid-sized forward from somewhere too.

Obviously we can't go trade crazy and make them all, but I would be exploring all of those options and see what deal opportunities come up that are good.
 

Prochard123

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I think a big bodied clearance midfielder remains on the cards, someone like Sier is a player I've said wouldn't cost a fortune but could quickly improve.

With Bolton now a midfielder, we actually need a classy small forward. Castagna and Aarts are honest battlers, but they aren't dangerous enough to worry the opposition as a scoring threat. Rioli is classy enough, but just too often invisible.

A cheap mature age ruck would help too, even if just for a one year back up deal. Soldo's career is in trouble given he will miss all of 2020 and we don't know what will happen with list sizes. If CCJ comes on and forms a good tandem with Nankervis, that's a good sign, but if one of them gets traded this off season then another ruck is essential.

Id also say there is a succession plan needed for Riewoldt, so either a trade for a young promising KPF could also be a target, but the good ones usually cost a heap so probably better off to try and take one in the draft with our first rounder.

If we believe we can contend again in 2021, then I'd be happy to throw the first rounder at an A grade mid target, and then try and pry a classy small/mid-sized forward from somewhere too.

Obviously we can't go trade crazy and make them all, but I would be exploring all of those options and see what deal opportunities come up that are good.
Don't you have RCD?

If you dont want him we will have him, you can take phil in instead
 

Flags_In_The_Bag

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Jack Gunston, would be a great pick up for the Saints, hope Roughy is having the chat. 3 or 4 years of service, until Ben King arrives. Don't think Gunston will move, but the question must be asked. I would hope Ben comes in two years time, 2022\3
Neither will Ben King
 

telsor

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I think Broad will go to the GC for a pick in the 30’s
Markov will be a pick in the 50’s or 60’s to the blues.
Stack and CCJ will be interesting to watch. I hope they stay as they have heaps of potential.
Maurice Rioli Jnr will be coming as a late pick/rookie
I think we need another key forward to take over from Jack in 1-2 years
Caddy is one to watch imo. He could be on the way out
A few fringe players look like moving on for more opportunity (Broad, Markov...others?), tight salary cap, reduced list size and a lot more question marks going into this draft than usual due to the lack of junior football....While there will be some questions about from who and where a bit will come for Rioli, and doubtless numerous rumours, I'm not really expecting much this off season for Richmond.

No huge needs, but clearly a few things we'd like a goalkicking small forward, inside mid (preferably big bodied), and succession planning for a few players, especially Jack, trouble all of them wants them, so for a pre existing player, it's likely to be pricey, so unless there are players looking to join us 'cheap' in the hope of ongoing success, we're probably better off rolling the dice in the draft, or even loading up for next years draft.

So trade out fringe players for whatever value we can get in pick upgrades or next years picks. Pick up MJ as one of the presumably minimum number of picks we use (usually 3 IIRC, but reducing list size might have that smaller).

I will be interested in how the dynamics change (how much will doubts over potential draftees and reduced list sizes make recycled and traded players more attractive?).
 

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