Analysis What list is in the worst state?

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Shadow89

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 20, 2018
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Short memory

Dominance comes in waves. Brisbane dominated, then were terrible, now better again. Port a pretty similar pattern. Richmond from 2002 to 2012 were as bad as anyone can be and look at them now.

Hawthorn have built one team that contended for multiple flags. For the 5 years from 2002 to 2006 Hawthorn's performance was as bad a 5 years as anyone else in the modern era. Then 10 years of success built off the down-period draft.

Hawthorn will be out of the finals for the second year in a row and looking at their list, at least the next 3 years so another down patch period. They might do well enough with draft picks to have another dominant era, or they might end up like Essendon/Saints/Melbourne/Freo/Adelaide and not quite get to the mark with that crop.

Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn had sustained success, but Sydney's and Hawthorn's is over, Geelong won't be far behind.
Been hearing this about Geelong since 2010.

Since 2016 (the year after we missed finals narrowly by finishing 9th and the start of our 'rebuild on the run'), these players have come from the draft that have been in consideration for our best side this year and last - Henry, Stewart, Parfitt, Clark, Miers, Ratugolea, O'Connor, Close, Fogarty, Constable, Narkle, Atkins

We also have Nathan Kreuger - a player that Andrew McLeod mentored and said was one of the most talented young prospects he'd worked with - and Sam De Koning - who was drafted as a key defender last year, but was trialled as a key forward last weekend and kicked 4 goals.

That's not to mention the fact that we drafted Tim Kelly who we got a big return on, we now have three first round draft picks, and then another one next year. We also have our first rounder from last year in Cooper Stephens. That's before even considering free agency or trade (we will have had 7 first rounders from 2018-2021).

Bews, Rohan, Dahlhaus, Kolo, Guthrie and Menegola are all still in the 'prime' age bracket, and Duncan and Blicavs still have 3/+ years if they play their cards right.

Selwood, Henderson, Jenkins, Steven, Taylor, Stanley, Tuohy, and Ablett will all retire in the next two years, but I reckon Hawk and Danger have probably got 3 or more in them (which will give us time to trade/develop/draft a key forward and mid/s)- so this will be our proposed Best 22 in 2022:

B: Bews, Blics, O'Connor
HB: Clark, Kolo, Stewart
C: Duncan, Parfitt, Menegola
FO: Ratugolea/Fort, Danger, Guthrie
HF: Dahl, Rohan, Miers
F: Close, Hawkins, Atkins
INT: Fogarty, Henry, Constable, Narkle

We will still then have one out of Ratugolea and Fort, Simpson, De Koning, Kreuger, Cooper Stephens, 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, all as possible decent talent, waiting on the sidelines. As mentioned before, this is all before even considering FA and Trade - I think we'll be fine thanks 🙂

Send me a message in another 5 years. I'm sure one day you guys will get it right about our 'inevitable drop off', lol
 

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FairKouta

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2016
2,555
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Carlton
Been hearing this about Geelong since 2010.

Since 2016 (the year after we missed finals narrowly by finishing 9th and the start of our 'rebuild on the run'), these players have come from the draft that have been in consideration for our best side this year and last - Henry, Stewart, Parfitt, Clark, Miers, Ratugolea, O'Connor, Close, Fogarty, Constable, Narkle, Atkins

We also have Nathan Kreuger - a player that Andrew McLeod mentored and said was one of the most talented young prospects he'd worked with - and Sam De Koning - who was drafted as a key defender last year, but was trialled as a key forward last weekend and kicked 4 goals.

That's not to mention the fact that we drafted Tim Kelly who we got a big return on, we now have three first round draft picks, and then another one next year. We also have our first rounder from last year in Cooper Stephens. That's before even considering free agency or trade (we will have had 7 first rounders from 2018-2021).

Bews, Rohan, Dahlhaus, Kolo, Guthrie and Menegola are all still in the 'prime' age bracket, and Duncan and Blicavs still have 3/+ years if they play their cards right.

Selwood, Henderson, Jenkins, Steven, Taylor, Stanley, Tuohy, and Ablett will all retire in the next two years, but I reckon Hawk and Danger have probably got 3 or more in them (which will give us time to trade/develop/draft a key forward and mid/s)- so this will be our proposed Best 22 in 2022:

B: Bews, Blics, O'Connor
HB: Clark, Kolo, Stewart
C: Duncan, Parfitt, Menegola
FO: Ratugolea/Fort, Danger, Guthrie
HF: Dahl, Rohan, Miers
F: Close, Hawkins, Atkins
INT: Fogarty, Henry, Constable, Narkle

We will still then have one out of Ratugolea and Fort, Simpson, De Koning, Kreuger, Cooper Stephens, 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, all as possible decent talent, waiting on the sidelines. As mentioned before, this is all before even considering FA and Trade - I think we'll be fine thanks 🙂

Send me a message in another 5 years. I'm sure one day you guys will get it right about our 'inevitable drop off', lol
Geelong got the balance right in transitioning the list. Always have. A very professionally run footy club. 3 first round draft picks this year and with the likes of duncan guthrie stewart and menengola as senior players they may have a dip but will come back up as long as they nail the draft and FA targets. I’m going with North. Adelaide have picks this year and a bunch of promising youngsters.
 

Saint

Club Legend
Feb 1, 2006
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Essendon
You've quoted a few exceptions, whereas I referenced 'rules'.

I like my theory better, but appreciate your thoughts.

To put it another way, I'd be willing to offer the following bet to any of my acquaintances:
1. You pick for me any team from West Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney or Geelong.
2. You pick any team from Melbourne, Essendon, Carlton and I'll throw in North Melbourne.

And I'll bet you as much as you like that the team you pick for me will will a flag before the team you pick for yourself.
West Coast and Geelong finished top 4 this year (near enough). Of the teams outside the 8 listed there, you can have Hawthorn and Sydney, I'll take Carlton and Melbourne. We'll see which of those 4 finishes better over the next 3 years (I think swans might have another good year in them if Buddy can get on the park). But across the next 3 years, Carlton and Melbourne will comfortably finish higher than Hawthorn every year (barring injury).
 

ItsAllAboutMe

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 22, 2006
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It can all turn very quickly and I remember thinking similar things 12 months before teh Dogs won a flag... But North list looks to be the most ordinary list I can remember..

Probably the most concerning thing is for a club with few supporters to have basically no players with any spunk... If you are a 12yo kid who supports North, whos number do you put on your back.. Ben Brown is the only one and there is talk he will leave.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
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West Coast and Geelong finished top 4 this year (near enough). Of the teams outside the 8 listed there, you can have Hawthorn and Sydney, I'll take Carlton and Melbourne. We'll see which of those 4 finishes better over the next 3 years (I think swans might have another good year in them if Buddy can get on the park). But across the next 3 years, Carlton and Melbourne will comfortably finish higher than Hawthorn every year (barring injury).
Na mate, my comment wasn't about 'who finishes higher in the short term', it was about who has the ability to build a team to win a premiership?

You're probably right in that Melbourne and Carlton may finish above Hawthorn and Sydney for the next couple of years. But do you honestly think Carlton or Melbourne have a flag in them within that timeframe?

Highly unlikely.

My rationale is that (either) Hawthorn and Sydney will win their next flag before (either) Carlton and Melbourne.
 

JPetro83

Premiership Player
Sep 25, 2014
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Adelaide, North Melb, Hawthorn and Essendon. But, the past month of footy tells me the crows wont be in the bottom 4 for too much longer.

2022 will be the year we get back into the 8
 

Meteoric Rise

Club Legend
Feb 4, 2008
1,511
4,730
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Richmond
Wtf is this post? We've won our last 3 games on the back of good performances from our youngsters and we're absolutely loaded with draft picks. I'd rather be a Crows fan than barrack for North or Hawthorn right now. I can tell you don't know what you're talking about too because you rate Fogarty when out of all our younger guys, he's probably had the weakest performances. The best youngsters at Adelaide are Schoenberg and Sholl. Fogarty would be close to the trade/delist pile if he doesn't pull his finger out soon.
I still think the Crows are in for a difficult run for a number of years, but they do have some really good options to play with, given all their draft picks, and looming free cap space. What I like about the Crows is your coach, he seems to have done a really good job this season. The huge improvement in the last handful of performances shows they have been focussing on the right things as the season has progressed.

You have now obviously washed Gibbs through the system, and Atkins is on his bike. But before your list can really flourish you are going to need to unload the following and then get new players to a point where they are above the level of these guys:

Reasonably prominent players I think you definitely need to unload

Walker
Knight
Atkins(already gone)
Mckay(going alright but obviously getting close to retirement)
Gibbs(already retired)

You probably look like holding onto the Crouch’s to retain a competitive midfield in the short term, but that probably comes at the cost of not being able to really go places with them as your leading mids, so this is an area of concern with your list.

Apart from the above, most of the following players/roles I think you need to improve upon before your list will be good:

Jake Kelly
Matt Crouch
Hartigan
Brown
Lynch
Fogarty(could yet see a lot of natural improvement from him)

Against that, you have some really nice players if they get/stay fit:

O’Brien
Sloane
Talia
Laird(loving him in the midfield)
Milera(one of my favourite players)
Smith
Doedee
B Crouch

and the following who are showing decent promise:

Stengle
McAdam
Hamill
Schoenberg
Worrell
Keays
Himmelberg
McAsey
Sholl
McPherson

Young players I am not too sure will make it from what I have seen of them:

Poholke
Jones
Gallucci
Davis

From where I sit you are 10 good AFL footballers/role players off having a strongish list. The next 2-3 drafts and free agency/trace periods could just about correct that if you get it right, then allow another 2-3 years development after that before you can actually contend I think.
 

Virgin Dog

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 29, 2017
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It can all turn very quickly and I remember thinking similar things 12 months before teh Dogs won a flag... But North list looks to be the most ordinary list I can remember..

Probably the most concerning thing is for a club with few supporters to have basically no players with any spunk... If you are a 12yo kid who supports North, whos number do you put on your back.. Ben Brown is the only one and there is talk he will leave.
Zurhaar could be that player. North has some really exciting youth; their problem is they have possibly the worst group of 24-27 year olds in the competition
 

FairKouta

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2016
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Na mate, my comment wasn't about 'who finishes higher in the short term', it was about who has the ability to build a team to win a premiership?

You're probably right in that Melbourne and Carlton may finish above Hawthorn and Sydney for the next couple of years. But do you honestly think Carlton or Melbourne have a flag in them within that timeframe?

Highly unlikely.

My rationale is that (either) Hawthorn and Sydney will win their next flag before (either) Carlton and Melbourne.
That’s y not rationale then is it. There is no logic. You are guessing/assuming based on past performances.
 

FairKouta

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2016
2,555
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MELBOURNE
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Carlton
Adelaide, North Melb, Hawthorn and Essendon. But, the past month of footy tells me the crows wont be in the bottom 4 for too much longer.

2022 will be the year we get back into the 8
Big call but can’t see why not.
Slone crouchs laird dodee smith lynch that’s really good senior players paving the way but the young guns need to step up looks promising though. Millera i really rate i know he is injured, if he starts playing good football could give you a chance. Most rebuilds will take 4-5 years to get into the finals though you would need to buck this trend.
 

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Coaster2012

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 10, 2012
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Wtf is this post? We've won our last 3 games on the back of good performances from our youngsters and we're absolutely loaded with draft picks. I'd rather be a Crows fan than barrack for North or Hawthorn right now. I can tell you don't know what you're talking about too because you rate Fogarty when out of all our younger guys, he's probably had the weakest performances. The best youngsters at Adelaide are Schoenberg and Sholl. Fogarty would be close to the trade/delist pile if he doesn't pull his finger out soon.
lol, calm down sunshine. That post was before you went and won 3 games.

No one even knew who Sholl was till this week.

Hit a nerve much? :tearsofjoy:
 

BarbieITFC

Senior List
May 11, 2015
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I think there are a few categories of lists. It doesn't quite marry up to where teams sit on the ladder because it doesn't factor in coaching and injuries.

Group 1: In the window, make hay for the next 2-3 years but the cliff is coming.
- West Coast
- GWS
- Collingwood

Group 2: Strong list that is younger than I imagined, which frustratingly (for oppo fans) means they're likely to stay at the top for a while.
- Richmond
- Geelong
- Doggies

Group 3: A rebuilt list that is now entering it's prime - watch out comp these guys are set for a prolonged stay in the eight.
- Port
- Lions

Group 4: A rebuilt list that is older than you would imagine - need to capitalise now - and sadly probably doesn't have the foundations for a tilt at the flag before that next rebuild in 4-5 years
- Blues
- Demons
- Saints

Group 5: Coming out of rebuild, loads of potential, too soon to tell if it will be making up the numbers or destined for a flag, but I would be quietly optimistic if I was a fan
- Suns
- Swans
- Freo

Group 6: Accept that you're in for a rebuild - or spend the next couple of years 'rewiring' and then come to terms that you need to rebuild (also known as the Ross Lyon Freo years from 2016)
- Hawks
- Crows
- Bombers
- North
 

vozzon

All Australian
Feb 1, 2016
710
372
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Port Adelaide
I think there are a few categories of lists. It doesn't quite marry up to where teams sit on the ladder because it doesn't factor in coaching and injuries.

Group 1: In the window, make hay for the next 2-3 years but the cliff is coming.
- West Coast
- GWS
- Collingwood

Group 2: Strong list that is younger than I imagined, which frustratingly (for oppo fans) means they're likely to stay at the top for a while.
- Richmond
- Geelong
- Doggies

Group 3: A rebuilt list that is now entering it's prime - watch out comp these guys are set for a prolonged stay in the eight.
- Port
- Lions

Group 4: A rebuilt list that is older than you would imagine - need to capitalise now - and sadly probably doesn't have the foundations for a tilt at the flag before that next rebuild in 4-5 years
- Blues
- Demons
- Saints

Group 5: Coming out of rebuild, loads of potential, too soon to tell if it will be making up the numbers or destined for a flag, but I would be quietly optimistic if I was a fan
- Suns
- Swans
- Freo

Group 6: Accept that you're in for a rebuild - or spend the next couple of years 'rewiring' and then come to terms that you need to rebuild (also known as the Ross Lyon Freo years from 2016)
- Hawks
- Crows
- Bombers
- North
Port while doing well has a balance of older and younger players. We should expect a minor dip when boak/rocky/gray/hartlett/dixon all start to decline, hope its short term and we transition the team quicker.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
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Port while doing well has a balance of older and younger players. We should expect a minor dip when boak/rocky/gray/hartlett/dixon all start to decline, hope its short term and we transition the team quicker.
Reckon you've got the most balanced list in the comp right now.

I'm all over you for this year's flag.

Make that hay whilst the sun is shining!
 

Saint

Club Legend
Feb 1, 2006
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Na mate, my comment wasn't about 'who finishes higher in the short term', it was about who has the ability to build a team to win a premiership?

You're probably right in that Melbourne and Carlton may finish above Hawthorn and Sydney for the next couple of years. But do you honestly think Carlton or Melbourne have a flag in them within that timeframe?

Highly unlikely.

My rationale is that (either) Hawthorn and Sydney will win their next flag before (either) Carlton and Melbourne.
It's an 18 team competition. The odds of any of those 4 winning a flag in the next 5 years is very remote. More-so when you consider the likelihood that next year's flag is statistically more likely to come from somebody who finishes in the finals this year.

You're quite right about dynasties, we're seeing Richmond in mid-dynasty, Port or Brisbane might be starting one and WCE and Geelong potentially too.

But I see no reason why Hawthorn and Sydney are organisationally stronger than Carlton. Hawthorn are going to spend all their time and effort on Dingley, which, from experience, isn't likely to change the world but will certainly cost plenty.

Not sure why Carlton or Melbourne don't have "a flag in them".

Interesting a Hawthorn person would take a swipe at the organisation of Melbourne and being unable to win a flag when last time Hawthorn had a down period they tried to merge with them.
 

Saint

Club Legend
Feb 1, 2006
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Reckon you've got the most balanced list in the comp right now.

I'm all over you for this year's flag.

Make that hay whilst the sun is shining!
I bet on Geelong when the season and matches were shortened because of their balance and the long seasons combined with age had been their problem. They were $14-1 the year after finishing top of the ladder in an 18 team competition. It was outrageous. Still think so.
 

vozzon

All Australian
Feb 1, 2016
710
372
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Port Adelaide
Reckon you've got the most balanced list in the comp right now.

I'm all over you for this year's flag.

Make that hay whilst the sun is shining!
I personally think richmond/geelong at full strength are the best 2 with brisbane/WC/pies and us as that next group.

more just the state of our list, credit to our recruiters etc to hit the last 2 drafts hard to when the older guys do drop off, hoping it wont have to much of an effect.
 

Mr_Moogle

Brownlow Medallist
May 29, 2011
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lol, calm down sunshine. That post was before you went and won 3 games.

No one even knew who Sholl was till this week.

Hit a nerve much? :tearsofjoy:
Bigfooty says your post was on Saturday and we'd won 2 games at that point.

I don't expect you to know who Sholl is either. I was just pointing out that you must not watch much of the Crows if you think Fog is the best of our young guys. I'm going to assume the last time you saw a Crows game was back in 2019 when Fog booted 5 goals against the Eagles and you're running with outdated information.
 

Shadow89

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 20, 2018
5,425
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Geelong
I think there are a few categories of lists. It doesn't quite marry up to where teams sit on the ladder because it doesn't factor in coaching and injuries.

Group 1: In the window, make hay for the next 2-3 years but the cliff is coming.
- West Coast
- GWS
- Collingwood

Group 2: Strong list that is younger than I imagined, which frustratingly (for oppo fans) means they're likely to stay at the top for a while.
- Richmond
- Geelong
- Doggies

Group 3: A rebuilt list that is now entering it's prime - watch out comp these guys are set for a prolonged stay in the eight.
- Port
- Lions

Group 4: A rebuilt list that is older than you would imagine - need to capitalise now - and sadly probably doesn't have the foundations for a tilt at the flag before that next rebuild in 4-5 years
- Blues
- Demons
- Saints

Group 5: Coming out of rebuild, loads of potential, too soon to tell if it will be making up the numbers or destined for a flag, but I would be quietly optimistic if I was a fan
- Suns
- Swans
- Freo

Group 6: Accept that you're in for a rebuild - or spend the next couple of years 'rewiring' and then come to terms that you need to rebuild (also known as the Ross Lyon Freo years from 2016)
- Hawks
- Crows
- Bombers
- North
This. But I'd also include West Coast in Group 2, as they have a fair few players that are still a decent age, and a lot of good young talent waiting in the wings
 

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