What to expect in 2017

[Soapy V]

I don't want to harsh the thread's buzz, but...

I see you (and others) assessing our list and factoring in Fisher, Polson, Le Bois etc making the team. And early. I'm much more sceptical.

I expect our first rounders to make it at afl level most of the time (~75%), especially early first rounders and/or first-round mids.

Sliding scale from there.

Second round ~50%
Third round ~33%
Fourth round ~20%
Fifth through rookies = 10%

I'd rather assume a player won't make it and be pleasantly surprised when they do....than expect a player to make it (especially a late pick) and be disappointed when they don't.

So I think SPS makes it, Fisher is a maybe, the rest is pot luck.

Maybe I'm a draft half empty kind of guy.

Or maybe Carlton has burnt me too many times. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 58 times, shame on me....

Good post. People have every right to be skeptical. Last 15 plus years have been a disgrace. Some people like me are putting a lot of faith in a bunch of untried kids so it's certainly no sure thing. I have been so frustrated with the Club for nearly 20 years.

I am no football guru, just a suburban player and a follower of the Blues for more than 50 years and enjoyed the heights of the late 60's, 70's & 80's.

What I do know is that the club is finally in the right hands and heading in the right direction. Turing over the list and building from the ground up is the right decision and I believe the way SOS has gone about it has been fanastic.

What gets me excited is I watch these young kids and they are easily the best group on young kids come to the club in any one period. They all have good skills, are winners and importantly quality and committed kids. The GWS kids are 2-3 years into their careers and ready to make an impact.

I have real hope for Weitering Cripps Charlie McKay Marchbank Pickett LeBois Polson Fisher SPS Silvagni Plowman Williamson Macreadie Sumner Cuningham & G-Mac. Each player alone gives hope but as a group, WOW. Even if 2/3rds step up we do very well. All seem to have their own very special talents. You then add Murphy Gibbs Curnow Docherty Byrne Simpson Kruezer to that and we cover most bases. Rowe Armfield Palmer Wright Kerridge etc. are now handy foot soldiers as opposed to players we rely on. It's also why I want to move past Thomas, Casboult, Jones etc. Their time has past or they aren't up to it and they are filling a hole best used for the future. If a Buckley Phillips, Jaksch, Korcheck, Boekhurst, Graham, Lamb, Smedts step up we are even better. This year I'll be going to the Northern Blues purely to watch these kids. We are now starting to have some real depth.

If we want to get to No.17 we need these kids playing and we still have enough experience to support them. Every draft up until SOS took over I felt deflated wondering what we were doing. No real guns and nothing to get excited about. We would make 4-5 changes to a list that was poor. A bit like the path Richmond are currently on. Caught somehwere in the middle and going backwards.

At the end of this year we could easily add another 8-10 top level young players plus a gun FA. Try picking a best 22 then!!!

In my opinion this is no false hope. This talent is real and deep and I think they will step up quicker than most think. There is an energy around the club I haven't felt in 30 years. I see us pushing Top 4 in 2019.

The other reason is Bolton. He is a top line modern day coach. The players play for him and he will constantly develop a game plan to stay ahead of the pack.

Am I excited? Damn right, but I don't believe it's blind faith. I really believe we are now on the right path. The next 1-2 years will be bumpy but we will get there.

Anyway, Just my opinion!

 

[Soapy V]

Going to try and rate all these guys, taking into account ability, need, character, possible opportunity etc.
This is silly I know and likely wrong on many fronts but just for the fun of it.....I'll rate 1-10 factoring in all of the above......I did say that it's silly. OK?

10: Weitering...Cripps...Petrevski-Seton
9. CCurnow...Marchbank...Fisher
8. Plowman...Silvagni
7. McKay
6. Cuningham...LeBois
5. Pickett...Macreadie
4. Sumner...Boekhorst...Polson...Buckley
3. Glass-McCasker...Williamson...Graham
2. Kerr
1. Korchek

I look at it this way

Certainties:

Weitering - Team of the Century Key Position Player. Elite
Cripps - Elite
Charlie - Could be anything
Silvagni - Exquisite skills and ability.
Marchbank - Another Gun KPP
Plowman - Underrated but Gun who will hold defence together
SPS - Has it all and will step straight in

Near Certainties:

LeBois - i see something very special
Fisher - Pure football ball winner
Cuningham - Inside & Outside w speed.
McKay - Certainly looks the goods. Has all the skills and toughness
Polson - Another ball winner with good ball use. Leader
Macreadie - Another KPP with unlimited talent. My only question mark is why GWS passed?

Possibles:

Sumner - Skilful but need to see him fit
Pickett - Same as Sumner
Williamson - Very young but has attributes to like
G-Mac - Athlete but question ball use

Doubtful but not given up, YET

Buckely, Boekhurst, Graham, Kerr, Korcheck

 

[1981]

I'll believe it when I see it

 

[RedFury]

I look at it this way

Certainties:

Weitering - Team of the Century Key Position Player. Elite
Cripps - Elite
Charlie - Could be anything
Silvagni - Exquisite skills and ability.
Marchbank - Another Gun KPP
Plowman - Underrated but Gun who will hold defence together
SPS - Has it all and will step straight in

Near Certainties:

LeBois - i see something very special
Fisher - Pure football ball winner
Cuningham - Inside & Outside w speed.
McKay - Certainly looks the goods. Has all the skills and toughness
Polson - Another ball winner with good ball use. Leader
Macreadie - Another KPP with unlimited talent. My only question mark is why GWS passed?

Possibles:

Sumner - Skilful but need to see him fit
Pickett - Same as Sumner
Williamson - Very young but has attributes to like
G-Mac - Athlete but question ball use

Doubtful but not given up, YET

Buckely, Boekhurst, Graham, Kerr, Korcheck

I would have many players a section lower than you.

In particular I would have Charlie, Silvagni, Marchbank, Plowman and SPS as "Near Certainty". How can a player that hasn't played a game possibly be a certainty?

Almost everyone in "Near Certainty" I would move to "Possibles".

Agree with most of your lower assessments.

Think people have got a bit ahead of themselves with Polson. A bit of swagger and some good school footy highlights - great. Let's wait and see hey.
Love your optimism though

 

[Funk]

Aah yes, I stand corrected!

Will be fun listening if our boys get over the line!!

 

[Funk]

I helps when you have a combination of Dementia and a low IQ but thanks anyway.



ps. What do mean you don't agree with my projections.

Projectors are so 90's.

Get one of Davey Warners OLED's.....

 

[StandByyourMan]

I look at it this way

Certainties:

Weitering - Team of the Century Key Position Player. Elite
Cripps - Elite
Charlie - Could be anything
Silvagni - Exquisite skills and ability.
Marchbank - Another Gun KPP
Plowman - Underrated but Gun who will hold defence together
SPS - Has it all and will step straight in

Near Certainties:

LeBois - i see something very special
Fisher - Pure football ball winner
Cuningham - Inside & Outside w speed.
McKay - Certainly looks the goods. Has all the skills and toughness
Polson - Another ball winner with good ball use. Leader
Macreadie - Another KPP with unlimited talent. My only question mark is why GWS passed?

Possibles:

Sumner - Skilful but need to see him fit
Pickett - Same as Sumner
Williamson - Very young but has attributes to like
G-Mac - Athlete but question ball use

Doubtful but not given up, YET

Buckely, Boekhurst, Graham, Kerr, Korcheck

I join in all the optimism.

- SPS will poll brownlow votes this year.

- I think Zac Fisher has potential to be one of the better players from the draft - and i don't think his size is a big issue at all (see WAFL) - he will obviously become a stronger/fitter unit throughout the pre-season and the year - i expect him to start round one and talking to Cameron Ling post game in the middle.

- I put question marks on Polson - apart from the school footy clips - and that SOS drafted him and he now plays for carlton - why are we so bullish about him? seems unrealistic expectation.. He seems to get better every post without having played a game..I'm not saying he wont be good just query where the momentum for him is coming from (other than blind Carlton optimism - which I respect). Also might apply to LeBois. I may be ignorant and uneducated on their pedigree too..can anyone shed any light?

- Also i will not be surprised if Dylan Buckley steps up. I thought he was a bit unlucky last year with being dropped early in the year and then the suspension basically cooked his year.

- Sumner hopefully to take a step forward.

 

[MightyMighties]

I join in all the optimism.

- SPS will poll brownlow votes this year.

- I think Zac Fisher has potential to be one of the better players from the draft - and i don't think his size is a big issue at all (see WAFL) - he will obviously become a stronger/fitter unit throughout the pre-season and the year - i expect him to start round one and talking to Cameron Ling post game in the middle.

- I put question marks on Polson - apart from the school footy clips - and that SOS drafted him and he now plays for carlton - why are we so bullish about him? seems unrealistic expectation.. He seems to get better every post without having played a game..I'm not saying he wont be good just query where the momentum for him is coming from (other than blind Carlton optimism - which I respect). Also might apply to LeBois. I may be ignorant and uneducated on their pedigree too..can anyone shed any light?

- Also i will not be surprised if Dylan Buckley steps up. I thought he was a bit unlucky last year with being dropped early in the year and then the suspension basically cooked his year.

- Sumner hopefully to take a step forward.

Making a lot of sense ... in spite of that mullet!

 

[therubbernub]

Also i will not be surprised if Dylan Buckley steps up

I have heard him mentioned in a very positive light about 3 times during preseason- latest was by Mr Cripps in his video today

 

[StandByyourMan]

Also, when i heard we were getting Smedts and Palmer I was very disappointed (vomited on self).

We must understand that Smedts will continue to be a wreck and he shouldn't be getting games unless we have injuries. I would be playing LeBois, Pickett and Polson ahead of Smedts every single day of the week. He should be there for cover only.

On the other hand I am now, after due consideration, very bullish about Palmer - this could well turn out to be very astute recruiting by moneyball SOS. He provides a great deal of depth, multi-positional and knows where the goals are. (He could yet be a success story and better his output than that at GWS)

Alex Silvagni makes a great deal of sense too - the intellectual property he has on defending AFL forwards will be very helpful to M'Bank and The Weiternator et al and he is a piece of meat you can chuck down back to plug a gap. PLUS he loves Carlton so massive intangible there.

Dale Thomas is a serviceable wreck and we will have to wring every last cent out of him until the end of the year, like a dry towel. He may get demoted to the two's early if he doesn't put up 'cause "being one of the cool kids" isn't enough to get a game anymore under Bolton.

All the kids will continue to be drilled "you are entitled to nothing" including Marchbank and McKay - this is not cause for any concern - Bolts will drill them until they get it and then some more.

Bolts was a school teacher at one of the rougher lower socio economic demographic schools in Hobart, and he would have his kids (high school kids mind you) marching in single file behind him on excursions. He will not tolerate one iota of poor discipline. This is where the kids will get blasted hard - "pull your ******* scone in Marchbank" etc..

Bolts is also hard as nails. Georgetown breed them tough. He won't cop any arrogant young kids getting ahead of themselves.

 

[Funk]

I join in all the optimism.

- SPS will poll brownlow votes this year.

- I think Zac Fisher has potential to be one of the better players from the draft - and i don't think his size is a big issue at all (see WAFL) - he will obviously become a stronger/fitter unit throughout the pre-season and the year - i expect him to start round one and talking to Cameron Ling post game in the middle.

- I put question marks on Polson - apart from the school footy clips - and that SOS drafted him and he now plays for carlton - why are we so bullish about him? seems unrealistic expectation.. He seems to get better every post without having played a game..I'm not saying he wont be good just query where the momentum for him is coming from (other than blind Carlton optimism - which I respect). Also might apply to LeBois. I may be ignorant and uneducated on their pedigree too..can anyone shed any light?

- Also i will not be surprised if Dylan Buckley steps up. I thought he was a bit unlucky last year with being dropped early in the year and then the suspension basically cooked his year.

- Sumner hopefully to take a step forward.

Re Polson

The "big fat hairy man" said SOS was into him early in the year and then Polson "did a shoulder".

History repeating?

Same story as Jack last year and he turned out OK!!

 

[Coona Blues]

Bolts was a school teacher at one of the rougher lower socio economic demographic schools in Hobart, and he would have his kids (high school kids mind you) marching in single file behind him on excursions. He will not tolerate one iota of poor discipline. This is where the kids will get blasted hard - "pull your ******* scone in Marchbank" etc..

Bolts is also hard as nails. Georgetown breed them tough. He won't cop any arrogant young kids getting ahead of themselves.

You are correct despite not knowing that George Town is two words. Bit before Bolts' time but unlikely it was any easier. Over achieving was
not encouraged in that school yard...............

 

[Jetf35c]

Jack to kick 30 goals

 

[Blue For Life]

What 'credit' has Palmer received? I am not sure too many are buoyant about his recruitment on the back of what he achieved 9 years ago.

Palmer alone will not turn our fortunes around but there is no reason he can't be a valuable contributor for a couple of years.

Rhys started out as a mid at Freo but he was never going to be a permanent fixture in the GWS midfield - not because he'd be 'exposed' in the middle, but rather because of the almost unprecedented level of talent they had available in his time there.

To his credit - and this is where he does deserve credit - he completely reinvented himself as a footballer over the 5 years he was in Western Sydney. In that time frame he moved from being a pure mid to almost exclusively a half forward, and he did so with reasonable success.

Despite that transformation Rhys is not unfamiliar with the midfield and I expect to see him get plenty of midfield minutes in 2017, as well as spending time closer to goals. To say it is a "huge gamble" to put him in the midfield is a gross over-exaggeration.

We paid a pittance for a capable multi-positional footballer. Seems a good safe piece of business to me, with the same thought process which saw us recruit Wright a year prior.

Great post Jeramias, that's probably the best way to sum up Palmer.
He may not be elite and flashy but he won't die wondering.
Palmer will be rotated through the midfield and add much needed depth and hold his own, and let's not forget he's added another string to his bow and that's the ability to go forward and impact the scoreboard.
Don't write him off as he has come to the CFC, and he's raring to go and this has been highlighted by the fact he has worked his backside off before arriving.
Palmer has also put in a really solid preseason and is out to earn the respect of his new team mates.
I back him in to be a really valuable contributor and prove the naysayers wrong.

 

[COBALT BLUE]

What 'credit' has Palmer received? I am not sure too many are buoyant about his recruitment on the back of what he achieved 9 years ago.

Palmer alone will not turn our fortunes around but there is no reason he can't be a valuable contributor for a couple of years.

Rhys started out as a mid at Freo but he was never going to be a permanent fixture in the GWS midfield - not because he'd be 'exposed' in the middle, but rather because of the almost unprecedented level of talent they had available in his time there.

To his credit - and this is where he does deserve credit - he completely reinvented himself as a footballer over the 5 years he was in Western Sydney. In that time frame he moved from being a pure mid to almost exclusively a half forward, and he did so with reasonable success.

Despite that transformation Rhys is not unfamiliar with the midfield and I expect to see him get plenty of midfield minutes in 2017, as well as spending time closer to goals. To say it is a "huge gamble" to put him in the midfield is a gross over-exaggeration.

We paid a pittance for a capable multi-positional footballer. Seems a good safe piece of business to me, with the same thought process which saw us recruit Wright a year prior.

Palmer would never turn the tide fir us...buying some time.
That is what he is about..
Until we can keep drafting winners and begin attracting some Elites to the club,which has to some extent already begun to happen.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Spot on.

 

[Jetf35c]

Spot on.

Rhys is a better version of kerridge

 

[StandByyourMan]

Sheehan starts the season in the 2s

 

[Metalcrusher]

Nor can I ... but that goes against popular opinion.

 

[deadoralive]

A Giants flag, Josh Kennedy Coleman and Charlie Curnow for the Rising Star. (Well at least I hope as I put money on that multi to happen!!)

Really expect Charlie (injury free of course) to have a big year. Roughly 5-8 wins for the year and continued improvement from youth. That's realistic.

 

[StandByyourMan]

Me to continue bleeding navy blue blood

My 2 yo daughter to nail down all the words to the club song, rather than bluffing her way through some of the words

The list to just get deeper and better through bolts' coaching (existing players growing) and SOS's recruiting (new good players coming in)

Big call.....but we are a big sleeper in this comp and we will start to see the green shoots thicken and grow and start to give serious headaches to the more fancied teams of previous years. I'm not putting a figure on it but ANYTHING is possible - you only need look at the dogs to see this (i know i know different circs etc)

The technical and other shortcomings of certain players are valid points BUT if they start to play within their ability,buy in,play a role well, and train hard on system and their own weaknesses then our list gets deeper and deeper - good coaching and leadership

That game against Port, in the last quarter when the faithful were up on their feet and seriously watching a resurgence before their eyes...the hair is standing up as i speak...serious optimism for the first time since in a very long time...ROUND ONE COME ON!!!!

 

[Stefchook]

3 wins and last place, according to Chris McDermott.

I too think we'll probably finish pretty low down as well, as we pour lots of gametime into our exciting youngsters. But I'd be surprised if we only managed to salute on 3 occasions.

 

[ParapMarkets]

3 wins and last place, according to Chris McDermott.

I too think we'll probably finish pretty low down as well, as we pour lots of gametime into our exciting youngsters. But I'd be surprised if we only managed to salute on 3 occasions.

When someone suggests that Jamison and Walker are going to be big holes to fill from last year you know they really haven't watched / studied the team at all. Not disrespecting those 2 as they were good servants for our club but their bodies had taken a beating. I agree with you, not anticipating to finish outside the bottom 6, but we will win more than 3 easily.

 

[Soapy V]

Touhy's the only real loss from last year. Inclusions are Murphy Palmer Marchbank Smedts & Pickett. Expect major improvement from Silvagni Cuningham Weitering Plowman & Charlie. SPS will step straight in as will Fisher.

Last place isn't even a consideration

PS Haven't even mentioned McKay Polson Lebois Sheehan

 

[P_Crippy]

8-9 wins. No thrashings and a win against Hawks.