What will happen first? Geelong finishing bottom 4, or Carlton finishing top 4?

Which is more likely to happen first?


  • Total voters
    216

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VineyToClark

Senior List
Jan 16, 2013
170
156
AFL Club
Melbourne
Same as the Geelong vs Melbourne thread, only rebooted.

Carlton have not finished above Geelong on the ladder since 2001. That is an amazing stat in the era of equalisation.

Geelong do not look like sliding down the ladder anytime soon, nor do Carlton look like rising up the ladder anytime soon either.

What do you think is more likely to happen first out of Geelong finishing bottom 4 and Carlton finishing top 4, and why?
 

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Tom_Thumb

Club Legend
Feb 1, 2016
2,149
1,855
AFL Club
West Coast
As much as I want to see Geelong finish last their list and organisation is good enough to finish middle of the pack.
 

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LongPause

Team Captain
Jul 23, 2017
402
348
AFL Club
Adelaide
Parallel lines, two paths that will never meet. But seriously you could make a case for both to happen in the next 5 years, but its too difficult to accurately predict the make up of these teams in the long term future.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,400
6,874
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Though I have a great amount of respect for Geelong, with the likes of Dangerfield, Ablett, Selwood and Hawkins not getting any younger, I fear they may have one down season in 3 to 4 years before resetting for another period of contending.

That is certainly a more probable scenario than Carlton finding themselves in the top 4 any time soon.

I wouldn't be surprised if neither event occurred in the next decade though....
 

Len Nicodemo

Cancelled
Jan 2, 2019
1,225
614
AFL Club
Melbourne
Same as the Geelong vs Melbourne thread, only rebooted.

Carlton have not finished above Geelong on the ladder since 2001. That is an amazing stat in the era of equalisation.

Geelong do not look like sliding down the ladder anytime soon, nor do Carlton look like rising up the ladder anytime soon either.

What do you think is more likely to happen first out of Geelong finishing bottom 4 and Carlton finishing top 4, and why?
Your third paragraph answered your thread question.
 

lockheed

Club Legend
Oct 22, 2005
1,411
2,434
Night Vale
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
North Melbourne
Blues have some decent young talent... Geelong have inbuilt advantages (re: homeground advantage) that over inflates their ladder standing.

Ergo Carlton to finish top 4 first.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
The Cats' home game advantage woule generally mean that they finish higher up the ladder than they otherwise would, but one outcome is that they get lower quality draft picks. So wouldn't a strong home game advantage, everything else being equal, tend to weaken the list over time?
 

blitzer

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 27, 2006
7,207
8,208
House
AFL Club
Essendon
The Cats' home game advantage woule generally mean that they finish higher up the ladder than they otherwise would, but one outcome is that they get lower quality draft picks. So wouldn't a strong home game advantage, everything else being equal, tend to weaken the list over time?

Its quite an open debate how much you even need the draft as long as you remain competitive and can keep bringing in players via trade/free agency. I think its only once you fall to the bottom that you truly need the draft picks to rebuild. With more player movement than previously there is a few ways to build a list now as clubs like Hawks are trying to demonstrate.