What will happen first? Geelong finishing bottom 4, or Carlton finishing top 4?

[VineyToClark]

Same as the Geelong vs Melbourne thread, only rebooted.

Carlton have not finished above Geelong on the ladder since 2001. That is an amazing stat in the era of equalisation.

Geelong do not look like sliding down the ladder anytime soon, nor do Carlton look like rising up the ladder anytime soon either.

What do you think is more likely to happen first out of Geelong finishing bottom 4 and Carlton finishing top 4, and why?

 

[ThatsjustDappa]

Damn you off season.....

 

[FISTO]

We may not live long enough to see either event take place

 

[BIRDBRAIN]

Why can't we have them both bottom 4?

 

[Tom_Thumb]

As much as I want to see Geelong finish last their list and organisation is good enough to finish middle of the pack.

 

[Power Raid]

when was the last time that happened?

 

[dylan93]

Cats bottom 4. Them, Sydney and Hawks are due to bottom out.

 

[HTT]

The cats are looking weaker than they have for a reaallllyyy long time. The blues are still probably at least 5 years from finishing top 4. I’m going with the cats on this race.

 

[threesixpio]

Blues will fold before Geelong are bottom four I recon

 

[beema limapep]

Geelong will be bottom 4 within 2-3 seasons

 

[Blues177]

when was the last time that happened?

Blues top 4 - 2000
Cats bottom 4 - 1986

 

[Vintage]

Blues top 4 - 2000
Cats bottom 4 - 1986

Wow.

No wonder it was hard to pick a winner in this poll

 

[Dustin Credible]

Blues have some decent young talent... Geelong have inbuilt advantages (re: homeground advantage) that over inflates their ladder standing.

Ergo Carlton to finish top 4 first.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Catman]

Blues have some decent young talent... Geelong have inbuilt advantages (re: homeground advantage) that over inflates their ladder standing.

If only we got 13 games at our home ground like some clubs do.

 

[LongPause]

Parallel lines, two paths that will never meet. But seriously you could make a case for both to happen in the next 5 years, but its too difficult to accurately predict the make up of these teams in the long term future.

 

[weetert]

Geelong won't be bottom 4 any time soon. They're simply too good at home.

 

[Benny78]

Geelong will be bottom 4 within 2-3 seasons

Lol Geelong haven't been bottom 4 since 1986. Maybe in another 30 years

 

[VineyToClark]

Lol Geelong haven't been bottom 4 since 1986. Maybe in another 30 years

No wooden spoon since 1958 either which is impressive.

 

[Fadge]

Though I have a great amount of respect for Geelong, with the likes of Dangerfield, Ablett, Selwood and Hawkins not getting any younger, I fear they may have one down season in 3 to 4 years before resetting for another period of contending.

That is certainly a more probable scenario than Carlton finding themselves in the top 4 any time soon.

I wouldn't be surprised if neither event occurred in the next decade though....

 

[BIRDBRAIN]

Geelong will remain dominant. They have assembled the holy trinity, the greatest midfield ever to grace a football field. Who can possibly stop them?

 

[Benny78]

No wooden spoon since 1958 either which is impressive.

The thread on that topic is also really impressive

 

[Len Nicodemo]

Same as the Geelong vs Melbourne thread, only rebooted.

Carlton have not finished above Geelong on the ladder since 2001. That is an amazing stat in the era of equalisation.

Geelong do not look like sliding down the ladder anytime soon, nor do Carlton look like rising up the ladder anytime soon either.

What do you think is more likely to happen first out of Geelong finishing bottom 4 and Carlton finishing top 4, and why?

Your third paragraph answered your thread question.

 

[lockheed]

Blues have some decent young talent... Geelong have inbuilt advantages (re: homeground advantage) that over inflates their ladder standing.

Ergo Carlton to finish top 4 first.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

The Cats' home game advantage woule generally mean that they finish higher up the ladder than they otherwise would, but one outcome is that they get lower quality draft picks. So wouldn't a strong home game advantage, everything else being equal, tend to weaken the list over time?

 

[blitzer]

The Cats' home game advantage woule generally mean that they finish higher up the ladder than they otherwise would, but one outcome is that they get lower quality draft picks. So wouldn't a strong home game advantage, everything else being equal, tend to weaken the list over time?

Its quite an open debate how much you even need the draft as long as you remain competitive and can keep bringing in players via trade/free agency. I think its only once you fall to the bottom that you truly need the draft picks to rebuild. With more player movement than previously there is a few ways to build a list now as clubs like Hawks are trying to demonstrate.

 

[VineyToClark]

Your third paragraph answered your thread question.

Nope