Autopsy What wins flags ? Attack or defence?

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Just from observation it's clearly attack.

Defending is too labour intensive.

The 2015 prelim is the perfect example.

The 2012 gf which is the counter example relies on the Hawks missing and the Swans averaged 110 pints that year anyway.
In 2015 Hawthorn conceded the fewest points against. They were the best defensive team in the comp.
 

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Dominant defensive teams have had trouble getting over the line in the last 15 years. Swans are the only ones to pull it off in 2005 and 2012 but fell short in the last two. Crows in 2005 & 2009, the Lyon Saints and Freo teams and C'wood in 2011 all missed. Sometimes they hit a better, more rounded team, sometimes they just couldn't finish. Generally the dominant offensive teams (Geelong 2011, Hawks 3peat) have had a better return.

TL,DR: Have both offence and defence if you want to win unless you're the Swans.
 
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Goals wins Premierships....you must have a good defence, but you need a great midfield and a very good forward line. It can all fall together over a period of weeks and as we saw last year that's all it takes. The Roos - Lyon method of coaching has how many flags? 23 years coaching between them and 1 flag by less than a kick in the worst two years of football history " The great flood".
Attack is the answer!
The coaching manual of your average AFL team is more complicated than repealing Obamacare, with every possible scenario covered in excruciating detail, but there is always a spanner in the works someplace! Why over complicate things?
Like Tom Hafey used to say "Kick it to Royce"! Why? Because he always got the bloody ball and he kicked the bloody goals! Carey the same in the 90's, Dunstall in the 80's. These days you need a s**t hot midfield and maybe you will get away with an okay forward line, but no matter what you think, you still have to kick enough goals to win!
The Swans have Franklin and going into this year's finals series this makes them favourites, even if they do only finish 5th at the end of the season.
Roos - Lyon method will have you being forever the bridesmaid more often than not!
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The averages of attack/defence is only an indicator at the start of the finals. Then, its a clean slate

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Edit
Geelong 2 finals matches, not 3
 
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Clearly it's a function of both. It's not cricket where you can genuinely state that bowlers win matches and batters save them since you have to bowl a side out to beat them. In footy both can win you matches and both can lose you matches. Having a superb defence means your attack doesn't have to do as much (since they have a lower winning score to kick) and vice versa.
 
Defence only works if it works at the G. West coast got torn apart in 2015 because Hawthorn could spread the web. Ross Lyon couldn't win a flag because his game plans just didn't suit the G as well as Subi or Etihad (although that's based on dodgy memory by me). Sydney 2005 won one because they got it working on the G. Offence is a fairly straight forward one I reckon, the better your offence, the better your chances are.
 
Porque non los dos?

Final Siren has written some very comprehensive and insightful posts about this in the thread 'Race for the Flag - in Squiggly Lines'.

In my personal opinion, winning a flag with a mediocre attack and a great defence is quite rare (Sydney 2005 and Bulldogs 2016 are exceptions, not the rule). On the other side of the coin, it's a matter of terminology. Winning a flag with a great attack and MEDIOCRE defence is hard. But there have been so many premiers with great attacks and mere 'okay' defences.

So overall, attack is worth a lot more than defence but there's no way you'll win a flag in this day and age if you are 'easy' to score against.
 

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Um, attack wins you goals, and defence wins when you counter attack the goals of the opposition.

Lesson learnt when you learn to drive your players to get from the defence to the attack. Successfully, with no dead points.
 
Midfield?

Think this question is unsuitable for AFL. I don't think any outweigh the importance of getting first use of the footy.

If the question is which is more important, I'd go defence as defence can neutralise midfield dominance to a certain extent. Ones offence in AFL is only as good as one's midfield dominance.

Adelaide has by far the best offence and their defence is also incredibly well rounded. But they won't win the flag unless Sloane, Crouch bros all average 30+ touches over the finals series
 
But an AFL forward like Buddy is always going to be most valuable. When he is on his game, no one right now stops Buddy. No one. Some defenders can keep him from taking contested marks, and might be able to keep up with him on the lead(see Frawley and Rance). But Buddy always has periods in games when he takes over for a few minutes. It's happened in every game he's played in his career, 2016 GF, 2014 GF, 2013 GF, even 2008 GF.

The best "defenders" right now are more like playmakers who play in the defensive fifty. But that doesn't really mean great defence. Steph Curry gets a lot of steals, but he's not a good defender for sure. John Stockton is the leader of all time steals but he could never really shut down Isiah Thomas when they played 1 on 1

Continuing the NBA comparisons, Rance is the AFL's Draymond Green, great playmaker/user of the footy, best help defender, good closing speed when defending someone on the lead and good one on one although any great contested marking forward will get his share ofchances when opposed to Rance. Rance is the most well rounded defender which means he's the best overall defender. There's a better intercept mark, better defender on the lead, better kick in the AFL but no one combines everything at such a standard like Rance does.

If Rance played for Hawthorn during the three peat, he'd average 15 touches and 5 marks a game. His stats are good in a team that's always struggled to consistently win the midfield battle. Draymond Green's stats would be more impressive on a weaker team like the Blazers for sure. Just like how Rance's stats are more impressive on Richmond as opposed to how they would be at Adelaide right now.
 
Midfield is the most important. It's the midfield that creates pressure in the middle that contributes them to defense, and it's them kicking the ball to forwards. Has there been a side in decades that won the flag that didn't have an amazing midfield? I just feel like teams can get by with a just a decent forward line if the midfield is great
 
Have a strong midfield that can obtain possession and efficiently convey the ball to a decent kick <50m from goal.

Let's not overcomplicate things.
Win the ball.
Hit the target.
Kick straight.

Do this 20-25 times a game and that's a hard score to chase down.

Defence are your backup for when your mids aren't dominating and your forwards are inefficient and creating no defensive pressure inside your attacking 50.

Where it gets tough is finding the right mix of players who can win the footy, use it and convert. Most teams have 1-2 of the 3 but not the lot.
 
Realistically you need both (though the best sides tend to have better offence than defence). However there are more cases of sides winning it with mediocre attacks but great defences than the other way around.
 

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