Analysis Whatever you do, don't finish top of the ladder

[Rotayjay]

Winning the minor premiership doesn't necessarily mean you've peaked too early or are destined not to win the flag. But it pays to remember what happened to the last 20 minor premiers:

Essendon 1999: Lost PF

Essendon 2000: Won premiership

Essendon 2001: Lost GF

Port Adelaide 2002: Lost PF

Port Adelaide 2003: Lost PF

Port Adelaide 2004: Won premiership

Adelaide 2005: Lost PF

West Coast 2006: Won premiership

Geelong 2007: Won premiership

Geelong 2008: Lost GF

St Kilda 2009: Lost GF

Collingwood 2010: Won premiership

Collingwood 2011: Lost GF

Hawthorn 2012: Lost GF

Hawthorn 2013: Won premiership

Sydney 2014: Lost GF

Fremantle 2015: Lost PF

Sydney 2016: Lost GF

Adelaide 2017: Lost GF

Richmond 2018: Lost PF

That's just 6 flags out of 20 and 14 failures - 6 preliminary final losses and 8 grand final losses. Even if you look at the last 50 minor premiers from Collingwood 1969 to Richmond 2018 inclusive, it's 20 premierships and 30 failures - not as 'bad' as recently but you'd think that the best team all year would usually win the flag.

This is no longer just minor premiers getting bad luck over and over - it is a pattern at the highest level of Australian rules football. Sides that finish top tend to be finals losers rather than flag winners.

Is it that sides finishing 2nd-7th have a bit more petrol in the tank, while the minor premiers spend all theirs finishing on top of the table? Are there other factors at play? I don't think this is a bad thing at all personally - the uncertainty of finals is part of the greatness of our game.

Thoughts?

 

[LoungeLizard]

Do a stat for the rest, i would bet 1st wins more.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Not a problem we have experienced.

 

[BotsMaster]

Looks like it's due for a change

 

[Tectonic]

So first place has a 30% chance to win and 2nd to 7th is 70%.
Fractionally seems like it's better to finish 1st, unless one of the other 7 places has a better win rate?

 

[Duskfire]

Considering that 8 possible teams can win the flag, 6 out if 20 seems like decent odds. And even if you remove 16 as the odd one out, that’s still 6 out of 19 or almost a third. Still good odds.

There is no difference between finishing 1st or 2nd and more often then not the differences between these two teams are marginal. In certain years that can extend to the reminder if the top 4.

 

[Underarm]

2nd place gets the slightly easier PF, so it's not surprising to see so many of those failures at the PF stage.

 

[Power Raid]

it's interesting that the minor premiership historically translated statistically into almost 50% of flags. yet only one out of eight in recent times.

perhaps the more even draft has played a role

 

[falcons2]

Untrue.
The final 8 system started in 1994.
Of the 25 flags, 1 went to 7th Bulldogs, 5th Crows, 4th crows.
Of the remaining 22 its a pretty even spread between, 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
So it's not "don't finish top"
Just don't miss the top 3.

 

[M Malice]

Whatever you do don't finish 9th to 18th or your chances of winning a flag are minuscule.

 

[GROTTO]

Untrue.
The final 8 system started in 1994.
Of the 25 flags, 1 went to 7th Bulldogs, 5th Crows, 4th crows.
Of the remaining 22 its a pretty even spread between, 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
So it's not "don't finish top"
Just don't miss the top 3.

Finishing 1,2,3 or 4 only has relevance depending on who the opponent is. As an example, it is better if Freo finish 4th if the Eagles are 1st, and so on and so on.

The Dogs in 2016 had the luxury of not having to travel consecutive weeks.

Crows in 1998 are the only team ever to win the flag having played 5 consecutive away interstate games in a row.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

How does that show finishing first is bad?
Instead of a 1 in 8 chance of winning the flag (from the 8 teams competing in finals) you have a 2.4 in 8 chance. That's a pretty big advantage.

 

[Rotayjay]

Do a stat for the rest, i would bet 1st wins more.

So first place has a 30% chance to win and 2nd to 7th is 70%.
Fractionally seems like it's better to finish 1st, unless one of the other 7 places has a better win rate?

Considering that 8 possible teams can win the flag, 6 out if 20 seems like decent odds. And even if you remove 16 as the odd one out, that’s still 6 out of 19 or almost a third. Still good odds.

There is no difference between finishing 1st or 2nd and more often then not the differences between these two teams are marginal. In certain years that can extend to the reminder if the top 4.

The finals series isn't meant to be a random lotto where you have a 1 out of 8 chance of winning. The team that finished first is supposed to be the best, most consistent side.

 

[Dr Awkward]

The team that finished first is supposed to be the best, most consistent side.

And isn't that pretty much what the stats show?

 

[nahnah]

That’s why pies are getting players banned until finals, as the golden state warriors would call it ‘light years’ ahead

 

[HTT]

it's interesting that the minor premiership historically translated statistically into almost 50% of flags. yet only one out of eight in recent times.

perhaps the more even draft has played a role

Current final 8 system means first has little advantage over 2nd. Without actually looking at results I’d guess that patterns like this would emerge in other periods where first didn’t have an exclusive advantage.

 

[Rotayjay]

And isn't that pretty much what the stats show?

Technically perhaps. But think of a hypothetical sporting competition where each side plays 22 games in a season, then the final ladder is used to determne entry to the finals series. The team that showed itself to be the best over 22 matches only wins the finals series 6 times out of 20. Doesn't seem right because it's a sporting competition, not dice throws.

 

[John Who]

The finals series isn't meant to be a random lotto where you have a 1 out of 8 chance of winning. The team that finished first is supposed to be the best, most consistent side.

The issue though is you’re comparing 1 team’s chances (top spot) versus a group of teams’ chances (2nd to 8th).
That’s arbitrarily misleading the percentages.

A fairer comparison is if you do individual percentages for each team and see what that shows. Or perhaps group percentages comparisons eg. Top 2 teams’ chance of winning GF vs 7th and 8th teams’ chances, or top 4 versus 5th to 8th teams’ chances of winning GF.

 

[John Who]

Really what the OP’s stats show is that it doesn’t matter as much where you end up in the Minor round, but probably more HOW you end up in the minor round and your momentum leading towards the Major rounds.

I tend to think of it something like this:
Minor rounds - high school years (setting yourself up to qualify for what you want ie. job/cup)

Major rounds - university (setting yourself up to give yourself the chance to land the job/cup)

Grand Final - job/work (you reached your aim! But will you be any good and will you succeed?)

Much like the transition from high school to Uni to job, success in stage 1 does not predict success for stage 2 or 3. It just sets you up better for a higher chance to reach the end target.

 

[Rotayjay]

The issue though is you’re comparing 1 team’s chances (top spot) versus a group of teams’ chances (2nd to 8th).
That’s arbitrarily misleading the percentages.

A fairer comparison is if you do individual percentages for each team and see what that shows. Or perhaps group percentages comparisons eg. Top 2 teams’ chance of winning GF vs 7th and 8th teams’ chances, or top 4 versus 5th to 8th teams’ chances of winning GF.

I made this thread in response to all the threads we've seen over the years about the top side being unbeatable or having the flag in the bag on the eve of finals.

I'm guilty of this thinking - I'm on record saying the Swans had the 2016 flag in the bag. In 2017 people were saying the Crows were unbeatable early on, and I was feeling very optimistic on the eve of finals. Richmond 'couldn't be beaten on the MCG' in 2018 - 'monties' for back-to-back.

But when I went back into the records, the minor premiers have actually done a lot worse than I remembered. 6 out of 20 is crap, and that includes the Crows twice.

 

[barmy44]

very few teams would enter finals with a 50+% chance at the premiership overall. a 79% chance in each of the three finals (which is ridiculously generous when youre playing 3 other good teams) = just over a 49% chance of winning all three.

out of eight teams in finals, the top team - usually the 'best team' - has the best chance of all 8 teams individually. taken together, teams 2nd-8th have a higher combined chance of winning the premiership than the team finishing 1st.

so youd expect teams 2nd-8th to win more premierships than the team finishing 1st.

think the 6 in 20 probably checks out in terms of probability - at a guess, id say even a very dominant team would enter finals with a 30-35% chance, and very dominant teams arent that common.

even if you are the clear best team, you have to win at least 3 consecutive games against good teams, and only need to lose one not to win it.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Untrue.
The final 8 system started in 1994.
Of the 25 flags, 1 went to 7th Bulldogs, 5th Crows, 4th crows.
Of the remaining 22 its a pretty even spread between, 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
So it's not "don't finish top"
Just don't miss the top 3.

Because I was curious.

Looks like it's definitely better to be 2nd (occasionally 3rd) playing 4th in a prelim than 1st playing 3rd (occasionally 2nd).

 

[Dr Awkward]

Technically perhaps. But think of a hypothetical sporting competition where each side plays 22 games in a season, then the final ladder is used to determne entry to the finals series. The team that showed itself to be the best over 22 matches only wins the finals series 6 times out of 20. Doesn't seem right because it's a sporting competition, not dice throws.

I dunno, seems about right to me. Maybe slightly low but not much. Would be interesting to compare it to other competitions like NRL, NBL etc to see what is normal.

 

[The King!]

glad we are avoiding that nightmare

 

[BotsMaster]

Do a stat for the rest, i would bet 1st wins more.

Stats for second place:

• Kangaroos 1999: won GF
• Blues 2000: lost PF
• Lions 2001: won GF
• Lions 2002: won GF
• Pies 2003: lost GF
• Lions 2004: lost GF
• Eagles 2005: lost GF
• Crows 2006: lost PF
• Port 2007: lost GF
• Hawks 2008: won GF
• Cats 2009: won GF
• Cats 2010: lost PF
• Cats 2011: won GF
• Crows 2012: lost PF
• Cats 2013: lost PF
• Hawks 2014: won GF
• Eagles 2015: lost GF
• Cats 2016: lost PF
• Cats 2017: lost PF
• Eagles 2018: won GF

So second place has won the flag a total of 8 times of the last 20 seasons.