What's gone wrong with Melbourne in 2019?

[PetterdHoisted]

Agree with everything said in this thread. Comment last page about lack of nuance is spot on for me. Brayshaw a good example of a blunt instrument in terms of playing style: get ball, put hoof through ball.

But on a positive note, how good is Salem going this year? Has really impressed me the few times I've seen Melb play, shining light driving off halfback...thoughts, dees fans?

 

[Toump Ass]

But on a positive note, how good is Salem going this year? Has really impressed me the few times I've seen Melb play, shining light driving off halfback...thoughts, dees fans?

Our most consistent player this year, and easily our most skilled. He's been great.

 

[Big_Birdy]

16 and 17 premiers finished 13th the season before as did 18 runners up

That's how i could pick them to win the flag this season, when they looked better than all three of those grand finalists

It's not like it was a wild prediction a lot of people had them winning it this year, yet here they are sitting one win above bottom of the ladder after 15 rounds, they have been extrememly poor

I know it's off topic but seriously, the Dogs did not finish 13th in 2015. They lost an Elimination Final to Adelaide at the G. Mind boggling that people keep trotting this out.

 

[Final Siren]

Stopped reading here.

Champion Data's model has always been highly questionable, hasn't it?

Yes, in the sense that although it's probably the best model around at rating players, it's really, really difficult to rate players properly from statistics alone.

Anyway, the point is that models like CDs weren't reading any media stories or buying into hype - they made an objective assessment that Melbourne were likely to be a top team in 2019.

 

[Final Siren]

Something I also didn't understand as a fan of these type of models - maybe it's not that something went badly wrong from them over the off season but more that absolutely everything went right for them in the back end of last year?

Similarly a bunch have now catapulted North up the rankings as one of the top 4 sides in the league which I don't buy.

That's very possible. Models have a kind of inbuilt "stickiness" factor, which determines how quickly a team's rating will change in response to a burst of good or bad form. In the end, these things are historical, so if history shows that teams with a sudden North-like change in fortune do tend to sustain it more often than not, rather than fall back, then that's what the model will predict will happen this time, too. But that's no guarantee, and there will certainly be times when it turns out to be a flash in the pan.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Throughout the 00s and 10s, Melbourne and WCE have a knack of repeatedly yo-yo ing up and down the ladder. A top 4 finish can be backed up with a bottom 2 finish and then the next year they are back.

I can't explain it but by no means are they a bottom 3 side. Id be very surprised if they dont make finals in 2020. Too much talent across all lines. Only weakness is KPF.

 

[Juddernaut08]

wasn’t there a kaffafle in the pre season on training regime that caused a lot of angst?

kaffafle? the fk man that's not even close

 

[Cotchins Hair Piece]

Day god ahed ov demselvs

 

[Seadog]

Their frenetic game plan is rubbish, they spend all day flat out going nowhere. Flicking it around at a million mph is all good when it comes off but their strike rate is very poor.
Sometimes you are better off slowing down.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

kaffafle? the fk man that's not even close

No, he was asking if there was a kaftan made out of waffles and if you ask me, that would bring about a lot of angst.

 

[Juddernaut08]

No, he was asking if there was a kaftan made out of waffles and if you ask me, that would bring about a lot of angst.

sounds kinky

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

sounds kinky

It is once you start eating and exposing gaps one waffle at a time.

 

[footyfan1978]

They are perplexing. I got no real answer but I suspect their pre-season just mentally did not have them prepared for a big season.
All I care about though, is can we beat them this week.? Bloody hope so, two wins in a row from where we been would be a nice change of fortune.
Annoying we still going to have our two young gun key forwards out but hopefully others can pick up the slack. They managed to last week so here is hoping can do the same.

 

[situationz]

Well they're still racking up the inside 50s, but for some reason when they do go inside 50 they just cannot hit the broad side of a barn. Like in round 2 against Geelong they went inside fifty 72 times and kicked 6.11 (47). Seventeen scoring shots from 72 entries.
And another case in point, round 11 against Adelaide where they kicked 1.11 (?) in the last quarter from memory.


Edit: 1.8 in the last quarter, but 1.11 from their last 12 scoring shots

 

[Back One Out]

Melbourne won't be a serious premiership contender until they fix their defence. That means all over the ground - not just the backline. They've been a pretty good attacking team who can move the ball quickly and directly when they get their tails up and kick multiple goals in bursts. But they haven't been adept at shutting down opposition attacks.

Last year, the Demons ranked 9th best for points conceded. This year, they rank dead last.

Every premiership team has good defence.
Here's the 'points against' stats from the past 15 premiers

2018
West Coast ranked 5th in H&A (avg 75.3, AFL avg 83.5)
Finals (against): 10.10 (70), 7.13 (55), 11.8 (74)

2017
Richmond ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 76.5, AFL avg 89.5)
Finals (against): 5.10 (40), 9.13 (67), 8.12 (60)

2016
W Bulldogs ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 73.1, AFL avg 88.8)
Finals (against): 7.10 (52), 12.12 (84), 12.11 (83), 10.7 (67)

2015
Hawthorn ranked 1st in H&A (avg 70.4, AFL avg 86.6)
Finals (against): 14.12 (96), 8.13 (61), 10.7 (67), 8.13 (61)

2014
Hawthorn ranked 6th in H&A (avg 79.4, AFL avg 86.5)
Finals (against): 10.10 (70), 7.13 (55), 11.8 (74)

2013
Hawthorn ranked 5th in H&A (avg 84.5, AFL avg 92.8)
Finals (against): 7.9 (51), 15.7 (97), 11.8 (74)

2012
Sydney ranked 1st in H&A (avg 74.0, AFL avg 92.1)
Finals (against): 5.12 (42), 10.10 (70), 11.15 (81)

2011
Geelong ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 73.6, AFL avg 93.0)
Finals (against): 9.13 (67), 10.9 (69), 12.9 (81)

2010
Collingwood ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 75.4, AFL avg 90.5)
Finals (against): 8.14 (62), 11.13 (79), 10.8 (68), 7.10 (52)

2009
Geelong ranked 4th in H&A (avg 82.5, AFL avg 91.4)
Finals (against): 12.10 (82), 6.11 (47), 9.14 (68)

2008
Hawthorn ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 83.9, AFL avg 97.7)
Finals (against): 11.10 (76), 9.10 (64), 11.23 (89)

2007
Geelong ranked 1st in H&A (avg 75.6, AFL avg 95.6)
Finals (against): 8.2 (50), 13.9 (87), 6.8 (44)

2006
West Coast ranked 4th in H&A (avg 85.2, AFL avg 92.9)
Finals (against): 13.7 (85), 5.9 (39), 11.9 (75), 12.12 (84)

2005
Sydney ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 77.1, AFL avg 95.5)
Finals (against): 10.9 (69), 7.11 (53), 9.11 (65), 7.12 (54)

2004
Port Adelaide ranked 4th in H&A (avg 82.9, AFL avg 93.2)
Finals (against): 9.8 (62), 13.10 (88), 10.13 (73)

 

[Juddernaut08]

Melbourne won't be a serious premiership contender until they fix their defence. That means all over the ground - not just the backline. They've been a pretty good attacking team who can move the ball quickly and directly when they get their tails up and kick multiple goals in bursts. But they haven't been adept at shutting down opposition attacks.

Last year, the Demons ranked 9th best for points conceded. This year, they rank dead last.

Every premiership team has good defence.
Here's the 'points against' stats from the past 15 premiers

2018
West Coast ranked 5th in H&A (avg 75.3, AFL avg 83.5)
Finals (against): 10.10 (70), 7.13 (55), 11.8 (74)

2017
Richmond ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 76.5, AFL avg 89.5)
Finals (against): 5.10 (40), 9.13 (67), 8.12 (60)

2016
W Bulldogs ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 73.1, AFL avg 88.8)
Finals (against): 7.10 (52), 12.12 (84), 12.11 (83), 10.7 (67)

2015
Hawthorn ranked 1st in H&A (avg 70.4, AFL avg 86.6)
Finals (against): 14.12 (96), 8.13 (61), 10.7 (67), 8.13 (61)

2014
Hawthorn ranked 6th in H&A (avg 79.4, AFL avg 86.5)
Finals (against): 10.10 (70), 7.13 (55), 11.8 (74)

2013
Hawthorn ranked 5th in H&A (avg 84.5, AFL avg 92.8)
Finals (against): 7.9 (51), 15.7 (97), 11.8 (74)

2012
Sydney ranked 1st in H&A (avg 74.0, AFL avg 92.1)
Finals (against): 5.12 (42), 10.10 (70), 11.15 (81)

2011
Geelong ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 73.6, AFL avg 93.0)
Finals (against): 9.13 (67), 10.9 (69), 12.9 (81)

2010
Collingwood ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 75.4, AFL avg 90.5)
Finals (against): 8.14 (62), 11.13 (79), 10.8 (68), 7.10 (52)

2009
Geelong ranked 4th in H&A (avg 82.5, AFL avg 91.4)
Finals (against): 12.10 (82), 6.11 (47), 9.14 (68)

2008
Hawthorn ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 83.9, AFL avg 97.7)
Finals (against): 11.10 (76), 9.10 (64), 11.23 (89)

2007
Geelong ranked 1st in H&A (avg 75.6, AFL avg 95.6)
Finals (against): 8.2 (50), 13.9 (87), 6.8 (44)

2006
West Coast ranked 4th in H&A (avg 85.2, AFL avg 92.9)
Finals (against): 13.7 (85), 5.9 (39), 11.9 (75), 12.12 (84)

2005
Sydney ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 77.1, AFL avg 95.5)
Finals (against): 10.9 (69), 7.11 (53), 9.11 (65), 7.12 (54)

2004
Port Adelaide ranked 4th in H&A (avg 82.9, AFL avg 93.2)
Finals (against): 9.8 (62), 13.10 (88), 10.13 (73)

good post research. funmy most see their issue as hogsn gone and tmcdonald spudding it up. but theyre still scoring decently.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

good post research. funmy most see their issue as hogsn gone and tmcdonald spudding it up. but theyre still scoring decently.

We are very poorly coached.

 

[Topkent]

Melbourne won't be a serious premiership contender until they fix their defence. That means all over the ground - not just the backline. They've been a pretty good attacking team who can move the ball quickly and directly when they get their tails up and kick multiple goals in bursts. But they haven't been adept at shutting down opposition attacks.

Last year, the Demons ranked 9th best for points conceded. This year, they rank dead last.

Every premiership team has good defence.
Here's the 'points against' stats from the past 15 premiers

2018
West Coast ranked 5th in H&A (avg 75.3, AFL avg 83.5)
Finals (against): 10.10 (70), 7.13 (55), 11.8 (74)

2017
Richmond ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 76.5, AFL avg 89.5)
Finals (against): 5.10 (40), 9.13 (67), 8.12 (60)

2016
W Bulldogs ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 73.1, AFL avg 88.8)
Finals (against): 7.10 (52), 12.12 (84), 12.11 (83), 10.7 (67)

2015
Hawthorn ranked 1st in H&A (avg 70.4, AFL avg 86.6)
Finals (against): 14.12 (96), 8.13 (61), 10.7 (67), 8.13 (61)

2014
Hawthorn ranked 6th in H&A (avg 79.4, AFL avg 86.5)
Finals (against): 10.10 (70), 7.13 (55), 11.8 (74)

2013
Hawthorn ranked 5th in H&A (avg 84.5, AFL avg 92.8)
Finals (against): 7.9 (51), 15.7 (97), 11.8 (74)

2012
Sydney ranked 1st in H&A (avg 74.0, AFL avg 92.1)
Finals (against): 5.12 (42), 10.10 (70), 11.15 (81)

2011
Geelong ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 73.6, AFL avg 93.0)
Finals (against): 9.13 (67), 10.9 (69), 12.9 (81)

2010
Collingwood ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 75.4, AFL avg 90.5)
Finals (against): 8.14 (62), 11.13 (79), 10.8 (68), 7.10 (52)

2009
Geelong ranked 4th in H&A (avg 82.5, AFL avg 91.4)
Finals (against): 12.10 (82), 6.11 (47), 9.14 (68)

2008
Hawthorn ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 83.9, AFL avg 97.7)
Finals (against): 11.10 (76), 9.10 (64), 11.23 (89)

2007
Geelong ranked 1st in H&A (avg 75.6, AFL avg 95.6)
Finals (against): 8.2 (50), 13.9 (87), 6.8 (44)

2006
West Coast ranked 4th in H&A (avg 85.2, AFL avg 92.9)
Finals (against): 13.7 (85), 5.9 (39), 11.9 (75), 12.12 (84)

2005
Sydney ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 77.1, AFL avg 95.5)
Finals (against): 10.9 (69), 7.11 (53), 9.11 (65), 7.12 (54)

2004
Port Adelaide ranked 4th in H&A (avg 82.9, AFL avg 93.2)
Finals (against): 9.8 (62), 13.10 (88), 10.13 (73)

Whilst I completely agree with your post we have missed May, Lever, Jetta, Hibberd for almost all of the season which has impacted our defence big time and Oscar McDonald has forgotten how to play footy.

The issue isn't the defence though it's the midfield, they are too focused on winning the ball and lose their opponent often in traffic. They often swarm together in 5m radius and over handball to the point of a turnover that the opposition is waiting for. Opposition then springboard the attack by moving the ball wide and then have a free run up field. Oliver Brayshaw Harmes and Viney aren't super quick to begin with and we have had Jones, Fritsch, Stretch, Kolodjashni and a couple others rotating on the wing who are also slow and don't offer defensive protection. It's a whole in our list we need to fix
However

 

[situationz]

but theyre still scoring decently.

"Decently" as in 71 points a game?

For comparison they scored 104 points/game last year.

 

[Dazb86]

Whilst I completely agree with your post we have missed May, Lever, Jetta, Hibberd for almost all of the season which has impacted our defence big time and Oscar McDonald has forgotten how to play footy.

The issue isn't the defence though it's the midfield, they are too focused on winning the ball and lose their opponent often in traffic. They often swarm together in 5m radius and over handball to the point of a turnover that the opposition is waiting for. Opposition then springboard the attack by moving the ball wide and then have a free run up field. Oliver Brayshaw Harmes and Viney aren't super quick to begin with and we have had Jones, Fritsch, Stretch, Kolodjashni and a couple others rotating on the wing who are also slow and don't offer defensive protection. It's a whole in our list we need to fix
However

Sounds like a McCartney game plan

 

[Cudi_420]

They remind me of the Tigers in 2016.
They will bounce back in 2020

sure but we've played worse footy all year than richmond did at any point in 2016.

our 2019 is probably more like Richmond's rounds 1-13 in 2015 when you started 3-10. You were awful. Difference is you changed things and turned it around. We won't.

 

[Cudi_420]

good post research. funmy most see their issue as hogsn gone and tmcdonald spudding it up. but theyre still scoring decently.

I think you'll find that we are most heavily scored against in the transition out of our forward line. So our inability to score has undoubtedly impacted how defense. However, a standard F50 isn't normally of concern and broadly, we defend okay. However our lack of leg speed hurts us because teams are looping the back from our forward to their forward. Few teams can stop a fast and efficient transition, let alone the amount of times it happens to melbourne.

May, Lever, Jetta, Hibberd, Salem would probably all get a game in a top 4 side, maybe not Hibberd but definitely top 8. Marty Hore now is another one who would easily slot into a Geelong or Collingwood backline. We have the players there but it is a combination of time played together but also how teams are actually going forward that is killing us. More than anything our midfield is badly let us down. They play unaccountable and defensively inept football.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I think you'll find that we are most heavily scored against in the transition out of our forward line. So our inability to score has undoubtedly impacted how defense. However, a standard F50 isn't normally of concern and broadly, we defend okay. However our lack of leg speed hurts us because teams are looping the back from our forward to their forward. Few teams can stop a fast and efficient transition, let alone the amount of times it happens to melbourne.

May, Lever, Jetta, Hibberd, Salem would probably all get a game in a top 4 side, maybe not Hibberd but definitely top 8. Marty Hore now is another one who would easily slot into a Geelong or Collingwood backline. We have the players there but it is a combination of time played together but also how teams are actually going forward that is killing us. More than anything our midfield is badly let us down. They play unaccountable and defensively inept football.

We don't really have any rebounders except Simpson. Wonder if we can exploit it.

 

[nineteen eighty]

sure but we've played worse footy all year than richmond did at any point in 2016.

our 2019 is probably more like Richmond's rounds 1-13 in 2015 when you started 3-10. You were awful. Difference is you changed things and turned it around. We won't.

You are mistaken on this point. We were terrible in 2016 with some serious losses. Off the top of my head I don't know Melbourne's I50 numbers and where they rank but imagine they would be in the top half. Their issue is lack of defensive intensity (all across the ground...not just in defense) and a game plan to capitalise on so many I50's. It's either the forwards not getting to the right position or the mids not delivering it properly (ie bombing it forward).

The Tiges in 16 were totally and utterly sh1te!!! We had a number of huge losses where we didn't even show up.

 

[Demon bhoy]

Melbourne won't be a serious premiership contender until they fix their defence. That means all over the ground - not just the backline. They've been a pretty good attacking team who can move the ball quickly and directly when they get their tails up and kick multiple goals in bursts. But they haven't been adept at shutting down opposition attacks.

Last year, the Demons ranked 9th best for points conceded. This year, they rank dead last.

Every premiership team has good defence.
Here's the 'points against' stats from the past 15 premiers

2018
West Coast ranked 5th in H&A (avg 75.3, AFL avg 83.5)
Finals (against): 10.10 (70), 7.13 (55), 11.8 (74)

2017
Richmond ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 76.5, AFL avg 89.5)
Finals (against): 5.10 (40), 9.13 (67), 8.12 (60)

2016
W Bulldogs ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 73.1, AFL avg 88.8)
Finals (against): 7.10 (52), 12.12 (84), 12.11 (83), 10.7 (67)

2015
Hawthorn ranked 1st in H&A (avg 70.4, AFL avg 86.6)
Finals (against): 14.12 (96), 8.13 (61), 10.7 (67), 8.13 (61)

2014
Hawthorn ranked 6th in H&A (avg 79.4, AFL avg 86.5)
Finals (against): 10.10 (70), 7.13 (55), 11.8 (74)

2013
Hawthorn ranked 5th in H&A (avg 84.5, AFL avg 92.8)
Finals (against): 7.9 (51), 15.7 (97), 11.8 (74)

2012
Sydney ranked 1st in H&A (avg 74.0, AFL avg 92.1)
Finals (against): 5.12 (42), 10.10 (70), 11.15 (81)

2011
Geelong ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 73.6, AFL avg 93.0)
Finals (against): 9.13 (67), 10.9 (69), 12.9 (81)

2010
Collingwood ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 75.4, AFL avg 90.5)
Finals (against): 8.14 (62), 11.13 (79), 10.8 (68), 7.10 (52)

2009
Geelong ranked 4th in H&A (avg 82.5, AFL avg 91.4)
Finals (against): 12.10 (82), 6.11 (47), 9.14 (68)

2008
Hawthorn ranked 3rd in H&A (avg 83.9, AFL avg 97.7)
Finals (against): 11.10 (76), 9.10 (64), 11.23 (89)

2007
Geelong ranked 1st in H&A (avg 75.6, AFL avg 95.6)
Finals (against): 8.2 (50), 13.9 (87), 6.8 (44)

2006
West Coast ranked 4th in H&A (avg 85.2, AFL avg 92.9)
Finals (against): 13.7 (85), 5.9 (39), 11.9 (75), 12.12 (84)

2005
Sydney ranked 2nd in H&A (avg 77.1, AFL avg 95.5)
Finals (against): 10.9 (69), 7.11 (53), 9.11 (65), 7.12 (54)

2004
Port Adelaide ranked 4th in H&A (avg 82.9, AFL avg 93.2)
Finals (against): 9.8 (62), 13.10 (88), 10.13 (73)

Unfortunately I think it runs much deeper than just the guys backwards of centre, the teams ability to defend all over the ground is nonexistent particularly from stoppages and when it gets turned over at halfback, having said that massive amounts of draft capital has been thrown at the backline in the last three years but until the antiquated game plan is sent back to 2008 they will continue to struggle.