Analysis What's the cause of our second half (3rd quarter) fade outs?

[My Hat]

For me the issue is not so much about which quarters are good or bad, it's about momentum. In round 1 the momentum swung back and forth several times: the Tigers had it, then we had it, then them again, then us again. Since that game, we've struggled to get the momentum back our way once we've lost it.

Put it another way, poor 3rd quarters wouldn't bother me if we could turn it around and play dominant 4th quarters. But aside from round 1, we haven't been able to turn a game around to get it back on our terms. At best we've pulled it back to a stalemate and managed to hold on just long enough for a win.

My feeling is that this is a coaching issue, but not in the sense that it's anyone's fault. Voss has said on multiple occasions that we're not the finished product, that there are layers to our game that we still need to add, and I think that's what we're seeing. Our preferred game style -- call it plan A if you like -- is as good as anyone's. That seems to have been the initial coaching focus, which makes sense because you need a clear understanding of your own brand of football as your foundation. The next step is to add an equally strong method for not just weathering the opposition's momentum but pulling it back our way.

 

[Blue1980]

For me the issue is not so much about which quarters are good or bad, it's about momentum. In round 1 the momentum swung back and forth several times: the Tigers had it, then we had it, then them again, then us again. Since that game, we've struggled to get the momentum back our way once we've lost it.

Put it another way, poor 3rd quarters wouldn't bother me if we could turn it around and play dominant 4th quarters. But aside from round 1, we haven't been able to turn a game around to get it back on our terms. At best we've pulled it back to a stalemate and managed to hold on just long enough for a win.

My feeling is that this is a coaching issue, but not in the sense that it's anyone's fault. Voss has said on multiple occasions that we're not the finished product, that there are layers to our game that we still need to add, and I think that's what we're seeing. Our preferred game style -- call it plan A if you like -- is as good as anyone's. That seems to have been the initial coaching focus, which makes sense because you need a clear understanding of your own brand of football as your foundation. The next step is to add an equally strong method for not just weathering the opposition's momentum but pulling it back our way.

Nail on head, sides will always get periods of dominance against us, issue has been we haven’t been able to wrestle it back in any game since R1.

We just sorta did enough to hold on and neutralise in the last 5-10 mins to grind out wins.

 

[WalshYouLegend]

It's pretty simple...

The whole team needs a power-up right before the third quarter: A Quarter Pounder. Then we will dominate.

This post is not sponsored by McDonalds

 

[Blue since 72]

View attachment 1378330
Literally moments later. Turnover in the same part of the ground on our HFF, kick comes inside to the player near the umpire but look at all the lose options in the middle. This is an extremely ugly image for our coaching group. This means more hard running for Carlton. To defend this play we need to get ahead of footy at lightning speed. This is when the damage was getting done. We are burning some serious petrol allowing this kind of ball movement.

If you're going to defend like this, you are going to have to run your guts out. If you let the opposition play like this, you are going to burn a phenomenal amount of energy defending. This is where our energy is going and why we are having fadeouts.

It sure is.

Surely this is not coached and would have to be lapses by players, I mean Powell-pepper that far out on his own is junior footy (and it happens twice just in the images you posted).

Agree HF is an issue in that if we are forced into shallow F50 entries where either a stoppage occurs or the opposition win the contest we're getting opened up quite easily so logically how we set up behind the ball is crucial to slowing that quick transition (ie stop leaving opposition players out the back).

Maybe our HF line is underperforming and maybe personnel change might help but realistically we're never going to win all of those scenarios anyway, so it
just seems surprising to me that we would push that far up on a hope we win the contest.

Who was playing right wing in that game? (not that they're the only guilty party in those images, reckon I can see Saad completely caught out in the above scene and where is Williams)

If we've gone deep into the F50 then sure push up further but if it's a shorter entry hold back some more.

 

[gbatman]

It sure is.

Surely this is not coached and would have to be lapses by players, I mean Powell-pepper that far out on his own is junior footy (and it happens twice just in the images you posted).

Agree HF is an issue in that if we are forced into shallow F50 entries where either a stoppage occurs or the opposition win the contest we're getting opened up quite easily so logically how we set up behind the ball is crucial to slowing that quick transition (ie stop leaving opposition players out the back).

Maybe our HF line is underperforming and maybe personnel change might help but realistically we're never going to win all of those scenarios anyway, so it
just seems surprising to me that we would push that far up on a hope we win the contest.

Who was playing right wing in that game? (not that they're the only guilty party in those images, reckon I can see Saad completely caught out in the above scene and where is Williams)

If we've gone deep into the F50 then sure push up further but if it's a shorter entry hold back some more.

Defence in general is a major issue.

Our ability to attack and score is extremely good, this kind of covers up our lack of defensive ability.

You can't look away from a few things.

It's easy to move the ball against us and move it fast.

When we are losing stoppages we don't have a great way of moving the ball and attacking from defence / behind the play.

When we are not dominating stoppages we look second rate.

Defensive qualities are about closing speed, playing at a high intensity, pressure at contests. Still a big problem.

When things aren't going our way, happens to all teams, we don't have high pressure, good defending and attacking from defence to fall back on, we just get dominated and hope we have an even better dominating period.

Other things I've seen. Do our forwards push up and play as midfielders much or just stay at home? Saw Walsh play half forward flank against Hawthorn and thought "great, he will play high, extra outside mid", nope he stayed at home and didn't do a lot. Fisher, Martin, Durdin, are rarely high up outside the contests. This would add pressure and defence and open space up forward of the ball. Not sure we use that "plus 1" we'll. Get more players around the outside of the contests in the midfield, could add more pressure at contests which is what modern defence is all about.

We have a lot to learn. Defence is a big one. Pressure based defence, team defence. It's not good with us. Our talent and offence has got us a few wins but take that away, we have nothing else.

 

[Blue since 72]

Defence in general is a major issue.

Our ability to attack and score is extremely good, this kind of covers up our lack of defensive ability.

You can't look away from a few things.

It's easy to move the ball against us and move it fast.

When we are losing stoppages we don't have a great way of moving the ball and attacking from defence / behind the play.

When we are not dominating stoppages we look second rate.

Defensive qualities are about closing speed, playing at a high intensity, pressure at contests. Still a big problem.

When things aren't going our way, happens to all teams, we don't have high pressure, good defending and attacking from defence to fall back on, we just get dominated and hope we have an even better dominating period.

Other things I've seen. Do our forwards push up and play as midfielders much or just stay at home? Saw Walsh play half forward flank against Hawthorn and thought "great, he will play high, extra outside mid", nope he stayed at home and didn't do a lot. Fisher, Martin, Durdin, are rarely high up outside the contests. This would add pressure and defence and open space up forward of the ball. Not sure we use that "plus 1" we'll. Get more players around the outside of the contests in the midfield, could add more pressure at contests which is what modern defence is all about.

We have a lot to learn. Defence is a big one. Pressure based defence, team defence. It's not good with us. Our talent and offence has got us a few wins but take that away, we have nothing else.

Yeah it's interesting in that it's sort of a hangover from Teague but with better contested work by the mids, obviously in large part to Hewett and Cera coming into the side.

I guess at this point we have to take Vossy at his word in that how the team is playing now will look different by the end of the season. Really he's still finding out what his best 22 looks like and I think we all agree we haven't seen it on the park yet. Hopefully tweaking of the game plan and personel being available later in the year will yield positive change and a more rounded game style.

 

[gbatman]

Yeah it's interesting in that it's sort of a hangover from Teague but with better contested work by the mids, obviously in large part to Hewett and Cera coming into the side.

I guess at this point we have to take Vossy at his word in that how the team is playing now will look different by the end of the season. Really he's still finding out what his best 22 looks like and I think we all agree we haven't seen it on the park yet. Hopefully tweaking of the game plan and personel being available later in the year will yield positive change and a more rounded game style.

That's it, the players and coaches need time to figure it out. I think this is where other teams have also benefited from a senior assistant. Someone who has done it before, knows when to make changes to things, knows how to build a defence based around controlling the opposition ball movement and pressure around the contests and knows when to make those defensive changes. Time to put an extra one up around the midfield contests, tell the half forwards they need to push up the corridor when they are on the rebound, time to drop a wingman back and push the forwards up etc.

We have a young coaching group who are new or newish to their roles. The more eyes to cast over our games, our tactics and our structures the better. Definitely needs some tweaking and we need to keep building on what we have. A lot of it's good, offensively we are good but defensively I don't think we have much going for us at this stage.