Analysis What's the pattern of our losses in 2017?

[CrowBloke]

The North Melbourne game had a couple of other factors. Firstly we didn't know how to play the ground (even the commentators were repeatedly pointing it out). We kept kicking the ball out to the scoring side of the ground, which made it easier for the Kangaroos to score. On top of that we repeatedly kicked it out of bounds, which gave the ball back to them.
Secondly, we didn't know how to set-up when kicking into a strong wind.

Yep, agree totally, which made the coaches' or the players' ineptitude on the day even worse. It's a schoolboy mistake and should be part of an AFL player's instinctive make-up to have and enact a game plan for a 6-7 goal breeze like that. Maybe Pyke assumed that since they were AFL players they knew what to do and such simple things as keeping the ball low and short into the wind, having our smalls set-up behind the pack with the wind (and vice versa), and kicking out to the sheltered side (for better distance) didn't need to be said. Epic fail, that.

 

[Bob Neil]

So I thought the idea of examining our losses needed a more forensic review so I've gone back over all our matches from 2016 and 2017 (35 in total) and analysed ~50 different statistics (per FootyWire) to see what is significantly different (both for us and for our opposition) in matches that we win versus those we lose.

The following is my assessment but for the concentration-challenged (TL; DR) our game breaks down because we don't get and retain enough chains of uncontested possession to get our flowing and highly efficient scoring style happening. It confirms the suspicions over whether our game plan is really built to withstand finals type football.

The more detailed analysis is that when we lose...

The matches are more congested and less free-flowing...

• Total disposals are down a bit (758 per match when we lose vs. 772 when we win)
• There are more stoppages (using clearances as a proxy: 81 vs. 75)
• Meaning a greater proportion of contested possessions in the match (CP% 41% vs. 39%)
• Less running bounces per match (10 vs. 15)
• More tackles per match (146 vs. 135)

...meaning we face greater pressure from the opposition.

• They tackle us more (77 vs. 66 or one tackle for every 4.6 of our disposals vs. 6.2)
• They do more one-percenters (55 vs. 50)

So even though we win more hit-outs (!)...

• Hit-out differential actually improves (+3 vs. -3)

...we now lose the clearances and don't get first possession.

• Bu our clearance differential drops (-5 vs. +2)

Despite the fact that we don't drop off and continue to apply our 'normal' amount of pressure...

• Tackles steady (69 vs. 69)
• One-percenters down only very slightly (48 vs. 49)

We struggle to get our hands on the ball...

• Disposals plummet (356 vs. 411)
• One-percenters down only very slightly (48 vs. 49)
• We lose the contested possession count (CP differential -13 vs. +12)
• And get caned in outside ball (UCP differential -37 vs. +42)

...and when we do find it we're scrappy, inefficient and struggle to retain possession.

• Our possession is more contested (CP% 42% vs. 38%)
• Our disposal efficiency falls (DE% 69% vs. 74%)
• We panic (Clangers 56 vs. 51 or 16% of our disposals vs. 12%)
• And can't keep possession (Marks 75 vs. 98; Kicks per mark 2.7 vs. 2.3)

On the occasions we actually hold onto the ball we can still move forward effectively...

• Effective disposals per I50 stay steady (5.0 vs. 4.9) and indeed our ball movement between the arcs measured this way is still a match for the opposition even in our defeats

...but we break down badly going inside 50...

• Marks Inside 50 plummet (10 vs. 17); Marks Inside 50 per I50 entry (20% vs. 27%)
• and we don't help each other (% Goals Assisted 64% vs. 71%)
• so the opposition rebounds more often (R50 on 66% of our entries vs. 60%)

...which of course means we struggle to kick a winning score.

• I50s per scoring shot rise (2.3 vs. 1.8)
• Our scoring power is stymied (Total Score 80 v 125)

On the other hand the opposition now controls the pill...

• Disposal differential in favour of opposition swells (+40 vs. -49)

...and they move the ball more easily into forward 50...

• They need less disposals per I50 (5.0 vs. 5.4)

...and score more easily when they're in there sending us home as losers.

• I50s per goal (3.7 vs. 4.6)
• Total score balloons (107 vs. 73)

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

So I thought the idea of examining our losses needed a more forensic review so I've gone back over all our matches from 2016 and 2017 (35 in total) and analysed ~50 different statistics (per FootyWire) to see what is significantly different (both for us and for our opposition) in matches that we win versus those we lose.

The following is my assessment but for the concentration-challenged (TL; DR) our game breaks down because we don't get and retain enough chains of uncontested possession to get our flowing and highly efficient scoring style happening. It confirms the suspicions over whether our game plan is really built to withstand finals type football.

The more detailed analysis is that when we lose...

The matches are more congested and less free-flowing...

• Total disposals are down a bit (758 per match when we lose vs. 772 when we win)
• There are more stoppages (using clearances as a proxy: 81 vs. 75)
• Meaning a greater proportion of contested possessions in the match (CP% 41% vs. 39%)
• Less running bounces per match (10 vs. 15)
• More tackles per match (146 vs. 135)

...meaning we face greater pressure from the opposition.

• They tackle us more (77 vs. 66 or one tackle for every 4.6 of our disposals vs. 6.2)
• They do more one-percenters (55 vs. 50)

So even though we win more hit-outs (!)...

• Hit-out differential actually improves (+3 vs. -3)

...we now lose the clearances and don't get first possession.

• Bu our clearance differential drops (-5 vs. +2)

Despite the fact that we don't drop off and continue to apply our 'normal' amount of pressure...

• Tackles steady (69 vs. 69)
• One-percenters down only very slightly (48 vs. 49)

We struggle to get our hands on the ball...

• Disposals plummet (356 vs. 411)
• One-percenters down only very slightly (48 vs. 49)
• We lose the contested possession count (CP differential -13 vs. +12)
• And get caned in outside ball (UCP differential -37 vs. +42)

...and when we do find it we're scrappy, inefficient and struggle to retain possession.

• Our possession is more contested (CP% 42% vs. 38%)
• Our disposal efficiency falls (DE% 69% vs. 74%)
• We panic (Clangers 56 vs. 51 or 16% of our disposals vs. 12%)
• And can't keep possession (Marks 75 vs. 98; Kicks per mark 2.7 vs. 2.3)

On the occasions we actually hold onto the ball we can still move forward effectively...

• Effective disposals per I50 stay steady (5.0 vs. 4.9) and indeed our ball movement between the arcs measured this way is still a match for the opposition even in our defeats

...but we break down badly going inside 50...

• Marks Inside 50 plummet (10 vs. 17); Marks Inside 50 per I50 entry (20% vs. 27%)
• and we don't help each other (% Goals Assisted 64% vs. 71%)
• so the opposition rebounds more often (R50 on 66% of our entries vs. 60%)

...which of course means we struggle to kick a winning score.

• I50s per scoring shot rise (2.3 vs. 1.8)
• Our scoring power is stymied (Total Score 80 v 125)

On the other hand the opposition now controls the pill...

• Disposal differential in favour of opposition swells (+40 vs. -49)

...and they move the ball more easily into forward 50...

• They need less disposals per I50 (5.0 vs. 5.4)

...and score more easily when they're in there sending us home as losers.

• I50s per goal (3.7 vs. 4.6)
• Total score balloons (107 vs. 73)

Really liked reading this because it confirms all of my theories. But, who is responsible?

The club needs to look at who drops off drastically in these games. Who can't handle the heat. If there are 2 or 3 players who consistently underperform in pressure games then these will be the same ones letting us down in finals.

I'd like to see the club play chess more. Opposition makes move, we make a counter move. I think smith is a perfect example of a player who is damaging when the cards fallhis way, and average when the opposition put plans in place to stop him. Make a countermove put him on the wing. In the centre.

If only 17 players turn up for the tough games, the 22 will find it hard to win.

 

[marty36]

As much as I hate to say it,. it's blaringly obvious the pattern:

When Rory Sloane doesn't play very well,.. we seem to lose.

His round one game aginst GWS is the only game this season where we won and he wasn't in our top 2-3 players for the day.

Our midfield group is definitely improving, I do believe they are trying hard and M.Crouch for one,. is a beast BUT,. against the Cats, Demons and Kangaroos,. he has been tagged heavily,. got much less ball and as a result,.. We've lost.

I'd love to see someone protect Sloaney a bit,. even if it means getting reported,. lay down the law.. if you tag,. expect some attention back.
And when was the last time the crows tagged anyone? 2014?

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We cant rely on sloane its quite obvious he is not capable of taking a tag, forget protection; the best players get tagged weekly does the name Judd ring any bells or GAJ they played well in good and bad teams very well as they were elite, sloane needs to lift to those elite standards thats why he is getting the elite pay packet

Saying that having another top quality mid could have changed everything, Crouches arent there yet, but Gibbs was, it was a huge mistake getting spooked by a couple of firsts

Whilst Sloanes input would have been down Gibbs would have picked up the slack

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

We cant rely on sloane its quite obvious he is not capable of taking a tag, forget protection; the best players get tagged weekly does the name Judd ring any bells or GAJ they played well in good and bad teams very well as they were elite, sloane needs to lift to those elite standards thats why he is getting the elite pay packet

Saying that having another top quality mid could have changed everything, Crouches arent there yet, but Gibbs was, it was a huge mistake getting spooked by a couple of firsts

Whilst Sloanes input would have been down Gibbs would have picked up the slack

GAJ is a once in a generation player. Judd always had players like Kerr, Cousins, Murphy, Gibbs around him. They would all be Adelaides 2nd best mid. Judd had support. Sloane's Support crew are coming along but arent there yet, but we lack that other A grade mid that most teams have.