Analysis When a draw is as good as a win

[davos44]

The draw was a far bigger positive than a close loss. Geelongs draw negated our percentage as an extra win put them 2 points ahead.

Our draw effectively gives us a 2 game lead over Geelong. 1 win + %.

A win over a draw has almost no effect.

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[VKCrow]

A draw is never as good as a win, never.

Haha, this is good. Pretty simple isn't it.

 

[Golumless]

We need 1 win minimum in the last 4 games, 2 or 3 would be better. As long as we get the double chance, anything can happen in the finals.

It's not a top 4 and anything can happen year with our side, for us to get to the grand final, we need both the QF and PF at home.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

If we won, geelong would need to win 2 more games than us. The draw was good but not as good as the win

They do need to win 2 more, our percentage kills theirs.

 

[TGFC]

They do need to win 2 more, our percentage kills theirs.

If you take % into it, a yesterday win and they need 3 wins. Op said draw was as good as a win and he is wrong

 

[Miss Vanessa]

The equation is pretty simple re: the draw. When thinking about our position relative to Geelong (who is closest to us on the ladder) it's a win. Compared to other teams it's a loss.

In terms of the rest of the season, we're almost a lock for top 4. If we can just get one more win, then only four sides can possibly catch up, Geelong, GWS, Richmond and Port. And Geelong play GWS and Richmond in the next few rounds. If we drop a couple of games, and Geelong then drops one of those games, today's draw will be extremely telling.

On the other hand, if we win next week, top four is mathematically guaranteed.

Yep. As far as I can see, given the other top teams play one another in the run in: 1 win guarantees top four, 2 wins guarantees top 2, and 3 wins guarantees top spot.

 

[kirky]

Yep. As far as I can see, given the other top teams play one another in the run in: 1 win guarantees top four, 2 wins guarantees top 2, and 3 wins guarantees top spot.

It is interesting that effectively we are the only top 8 side that only needs to win one of its remaining games to finish top 4. Do it against Port and it's guaranteed.

 

[Peter Doherty]

If you take % into it, a yesterday win and they need 3 wins. Op said draw was as good as a win and he is wrong

If we won yesterday, we would now be on 56 points. The ladder below shows Geelong are on 50 points. So if we had won we would have been 2 games ahead of Geelong. We drew and are still 2 games ahead of Geelong.

 

[dogs105]

If we won yesterday, we would now be on 56 points. The ladder below shows Geelong are on 50 points. So if we had won we would have been 2 games ahead of Geelong. We drew and are still 2 games ahead of Geelong.
View attachment 397938

Rather be 2 games and percentage clear of gws than 6 points.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Rather be 2 games and percentage clear of gws than 6 points.

My post is in relation to TGFC's post.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

this forces Geelong to win 1 more game than us out of the remaining 4 matches

Well 2 actually effectively because they are very unlikely to catch up with our %.

 

[Bovo]

The only reason this draw is okay....

We were 50 points down and drew the game.

If we were 50 points up and drew the game we would be dirty.

As for the finals, I don't care about top spot unless it advantages us. I care about top 2. Finishing 2nd also means little chance of a showdown.....not that is should bother me.....but it does....

I would hate to finish so high and then for the Power to use their home form to beat us.....but anyway....

 

[baldandbroke]

I'll summarise what the OP meant here a different way ...

How can the teams below us go past us after that draw?

Geelong - need 2 more wins than us
Giants - need 2 more wins than us
Richmond - need 2 more wins than us
Power - need 3 more wins than us

If we had won yesterday instead of a draw...

Geelong - need 2 more wins than us
Giants - need 3 more wins than us
Richmond - need 3 more wins than us
Power - need 4 more wins than us

So all we have done is made it easier for the other 3 teams behind Geelong to catch us - as far as Geelong are concerned, the draw was the same as a win.

If you look at the run home for the remaining 4 weeks for all these clubs, it's gonna be a bugger of a finish if we don't win next week.

 

[Simmo28]

If you take % into it, a yesterday win and they need 3 wins. Op said draw was as good as a win and he is wrong

Are you referring to Geelong needing 3? If so you are wrong. The draw or win yesterday still requires two wins to overtake us assuming we lose. Geelong are 50 to our 54, they need two to overtake due to % or if we had won it is Geelong 50 to our 56 and they still need two to overtake us assuming we lose.


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[John Who]

I'll summarise what the OP meant here a different way ...

How can the teams below us go past us after that draw?

Geelong - need 2 more wins than us
Giants - need 2 more wins than us
Richmond - need 2 more wins than us
Power - need 3 more wins than us

If we had won yesterday instead of a draw...

Geelong - need 2 more wins than us
Giants - need 3 more wins than us
Richmond - need 3 more wins than us
Power - need 4 more wins than us

So all we have done is made it easier for the other 3 teams behind Geelong to catch us - as far as Geelong are concerned, the draw was the same as a win.

If you look at the run home for the remaining 4 weeks for all these clubs, it's gonna be a bugger of a finish if we don't win next week.

Yes, your summary is a lot more easier to take in!
After a good sleep, my head is now more clearer. Tthe situation is pretty much basic equation:
The teams below us need 2 or more wins to overtake us. Since the other top 4 teams all to play each other in the remaining 4 rounds, there is likely only one other team in the top 4 who can win 4 games in a row. So if we were to aim for a top 2 finish, winning 2 out of the 4 games should be enough to get either top or second spot end of the Minor rounds.
Remember also Richmond/GWS may still overtake us, and that might mean we might be vying for second spot against the Cats, so a 2 game advantage over the Cats is still VERY important.

 

[JPetro83]

Geelong are lucky that their 3 tougher games are in Siberia

But the game at the G against the Pies..... the Pies have the wood on them. Let's hope that continues and that they drop 1 of their home games (not that i think they will)

All that really matters is we're effectively 2 games ahead of Geelong and a game ahead of 3rd. just keep winning and we'll finish top. Simples

With some luck lets hope Danger gets a game. Swans play well down there.

 

[Scorpus]

It'd be a pretty big fail to miss top 2 from here. Our best is good enough to win every remaining game. Only reason we don't is if we don't show up. And not showing up will cost us finals anyway

 

[Vhaluus]

The draw was a far bigger positive than a close loss. Geelongs draw negated our percentage as an extra win put them 2 points ahead.

Our draw effectively gives us a 2 game lead over Geelong. 1 win + %.

A win over a draw has almost no effect.

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Except its not geelong we have to worry about kicking us out of top 2 its gws

 

[davos44]

Except its not geelong we have to worry about kicking us out of top 2 its gws

Those 2 teams do play each other and were effectively 2 wins and % ahead of GWS.

Win 3 or 4- 1st (Port or Richmond at home)
Win 2- 2nd (GWS at home)
Win 1- 3rd (Geelong at the G or GWS at Skoda)
Win 0- 5th (Essendon at home?)

This is all based on other teams winning.

No way we drop 4 games in a row to end the year though.

 

[Simmo28]

Those 2 teams do play each other and were effectively 2 wins and % ahead of GWS.

Win 3 or 4- 1st (Port or Richmond at home)
Win 2- 2nd (GWS at home)
Win 1- 3rd (Geelong at the G or GWS at Skoda)
Win 0- 5th (Essendon at home?)

This is all based on other teams winning.

No way we drop 4 games in a row to end the year though.

Play like we did first half y/day and we will drop all four


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[davos44]

Play like we did first half y/day and we will drop all four


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Haha, of course. At worst i think we will go 2-2.

 

[AmericanCrow]

This threads name needs changed to the:

E.Gordon Gee "this tie is one of our greatest wins ever" honorary thread

 

[Simmo28]

Haha, of course. At worst i think we will go 2-2.

I think we can win them all

Edit: with top 22 on the park


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[hey shorty]

I'd have been livid if you told me we would have drawn our game yesterday.

Still am to an extent bit we did maintain our game break and %.

If Sydney do us a favour Friday that would be swell

 

[Rear Admiral]

- come back from 50 points down in the third quarter to claim a draw; our biggest ever comeback in a quarter and a half?
- likely go down in folklore as one of the biggest marks in a clench situation - McGovern stood up when it mattered; Barry Leo-esque clutch mark.

Nope (not confused). It's a very BIG positive in the bigger scheme of things (ie. better than a loss).

those 2 points were very valuable.

But more just for us to reassess the situation that a draw was definitely better than a loss.

Getting 2 points was better than 0. All mental.

Just need to keep winning. Simple as that

A draw is never as good as a win and today showed 2 quarters will not get it done. Today instilled belief though that we are not far off. We are a much better team with Betts, Bcrouch and Lever in it. Jacobs, Atkins, Jenkins, Cameron, Laird, Brown and Walker must lift if we are to go all the way.

The draw was a far bigger positive than a close loss.

A win over a draw has almost no effect.

They do need to win 2 more, our percentage kills theirs.

Well 2 actually effectively because they are very unlikely to catch up with our %.

I've highlighted what I thought were some relevant comments above. There are probably more, but I highlighted those.

Let's be clear - a win is definitely better than a draw....but a draw is definitely better than a loss. But what most Crows supporters fail to realise is that being around 50pts down, we had no right to even think about winning that game, but we clawed our way back into it. Fought tooth and nail. And this is something we've rarely seen the Crows do in recent years. We've either set the tone from the outset and dominated on the scoreboard (or only been a smidge behind at Quarter Time), then gone onto win, and typically by a big margin - pretty much all downhill skiing. Or we've been beaten from the outset, dropped our bundle and gone onto lose quite badly - really ugly and demoralising. Rarely has an opposition team thrown down the gauntlet, established a big lead, where we've wrested back the momentum from the opposition and fought our way back into the game. That's the sorta sh*t that requires putting in the hard yards....all uphill. And I can't recall that happening in a helluvalong time. Not for years.

Sure, we didn't get the 4pts, and that's not to be ignored. And Pyke and the playing group need to seriously scrutinise our First Half. But from a point of view of morale/confidence....I'm damn confident in saying that the Collingwood players (and supporters) were a helluva lot more demoralised and down-in-the-dumps than the Crows camp. From the reaction amongst the Crows players after Gov slotted that goal, their mood and demeanour was massively positive and upbeat. It was something like an emotional win, but without the 4pts. And considering where we sit on the Ladder, it's our morale and frame of mind (going forwards) that I'm most concerned about, and that come-from-behind draw will do us no end of good. And when considering the Final Score, just look at the players we had missing.