Moved Thread When Betting Agencies Get It Wrong…

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Sep 30, 2011
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I was astounded last week when I heard that Richmond were out to $4 against Geelong. Dangerfield going out in an already thin midfield along with the following outs: Rohan, Stanley, C.Guthrie, Stengle, Close, SDK, J.Henry.
To have the opposition at $4 at their home ground is insane.

This week, with Mitch Duncan, going out, Geelong’s midfield is paper thin.
Sports bet currently has Geelong @ $1.66 and Fremantle @ $2.18 in Perth.
Not as crazy money as last week, but I cannot possibly see how these odds resemble reality.

At the moment, people could make some good money betting against Geelong. Clearly it’s the name that has the odds so short. The lineup itself, particular with the midfield, does not warrant that.
I got $3.20 straight after the Sydney v Freo win. I should be paying off my house later today.
 

maskmcgee

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When Betting Agencies Get It Wrong…

No actually this is when Betting Agencies get it wrong.

N. Daicos didn't kick 3 goals. Both of them kicked 2, the betting company apparently can't tell the difference.

screenshot-www.bet365.com.au-2023.03.25-16_21_26 (1).png
 

btdg

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Sports betting agencies don't predict the likelihood of a team winning.

They aim to offer odds so that they get an even spread of bets on either side. If they anticipate more bets on one team than another then they will drop the odds far further than expected.

Hawthorn vs West Coast is a good example. The game might not be that far from 50/50 on paper, but would anyone in their right mind put real money on West Coast travelling at the moment? The odds on West Coast are big to try and get half the bets on their side of the ledger.

My observation is that generally the big Victorian teams (Carlton in particular, but also Essendon and Collingwood) have slightly worse odds than form would predict most weeks, simply because they have the most supporters and therefore pick up a few extra bets that way. Most years across the last 20, if you just bet against Carlton every week you would have done extremely well, because the odds were favourable and Carlton have further underperformed (even relative to ladder position).
 

Fadge

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Sports betting agencies don't predict the likelihood of a team winning.

They aim to offer odds so that they get an even spread of bets on either side. If they anticipate more bets on one team than another then they will drop the odds far further than expected.

Hawthorn vs West Coast is a good example. The game might not be that far from 50/50 on paper, but would anyone in their right mind put real money on West Coast travelling at the moment? The odds on West Coast are big to try and get half the bets on their side of the ledger.

My observation is that generally the big Victorian teams (Carlton in particular, but also Essendon and Collingwood) have slightly worse odds than form would predict most weeks, simply because they have the most supporters and therefore pick up a few extra bets that way. Most years across the last 20, if you just bet against Carlton every week you would have done extremely well, because the odds were favourable and Carlton have further underperformed (even relative to ladder position).
This old Chestnut again...
 
Sep 30, 2011
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Did the Sportsbet social media person create this thread over company-wide panic of the amount of money they're going to lose from people betting on Freo?
Other way round, they want you to bet on Freo so they are worried about bets on Geelong.

Freo on the improve is easy money as sportsbet does not rate us and the media is always 2-4 weeks behind. It just hasn’t come around that often.
 

janty

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When you see games decided like Sydney/North how can you ever put your hard earned on a sporting event?

Also, I fear for the youth of this country since it seems like people actually must think those Sportsbet ads are humorous since they keep producing them.
 

ourgameplandoesntwork

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I haven't checked the punting thread for this round, but I'm wiulling to bet the truth is nobody cares about the result because there's no value in H2H bets. Go look, people will be winning $51 goalscorer and disposal bets. That's where the value is.
Fremantle were certainties against a depleted Cats missing their entire midfield. Plenty of opportunity, with much more certainty than Hail Mary bets.
 
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