When will the Carlton FC Arrive?

[Chief]

Part 2 of this thread is here:

When will the Carlton FC Arrive? Part 2

PART 1 of this thread is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/when-will-the-carlton-fc-arrive.1259822/ ============= We're all thinking it. We're watching this story play out for the 4th time in the last 20 years and it's the same story every time. They have a great list of exciting...

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[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Not getting much from SPP or Dow.

SPS looks like simply being a role player now. He does need to be tried as a HF to see if he is more but his lack of run probably rules him out of being a mid considering what we already have in there.
Dow, well it might click but is a liability atm.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

SPS looks like simply being a role player now. He does need to be tried as a HF to see if he is more but his lack of run probably rules him out of being a mid considering what we already have in there.
Dow, well it might click but is a liability atm.

It's hard to rebuild quickly if you don't nail first-rounders.

 

[La Dispute]

Do you actually have a number of key pieces in place, though?

I think that's still an open question. Among the younger players, there are ticks for Weitering and Walsh, and probably Fisher. There are high hopes for McKay. But then what?

I wonder if Carlton have tried to skip a step in the rebuild to contend while they've still got Cripps, topping up with mature players without necessarily getting the drafting sufficiently correct to really get there.

Do they have the list to exceed the three straight finals series under Ratten? I'm not sure.

Depends on Curnow, TDK’s development.

Williams, Saad and Martin are all solid B-graders at worst, and some of the best players in their positions at best.

IMO that list sticks up, provided Cripps returns to form and McKay and Weitering continue on their trajectories. It’s the next layer which has been the issue. Unless players come over from other clubs they rarely develop into quality footballers in Carlton.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

It's hard to rebuild quickly if you don't nail first-rounders.

I said this on our board but if Dow and Setterfield (or SPS) were the A graders we were hoping for when we drafted/recruited them then we would be looking fantastic atm. Every team has depth players who are just along for the ride and yes we have them but our potential success was supposed to be driven by the youth. They aren’t much good atm and that’s why our side isn’t.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Depends on Curnow, TDK’s development.

Williams, Saad and Martin are all solid B-graders at worst, and some of the best players in their positions at best.

Yeah, but they're mature additions. That's great if you know you've got the youth coming through but if the youth is questionable it may be premature to go and add those readymades. That will be the question for Carlton in the next 2-3 years and probably the key factor in whether you play finals.

In 2019, Carlton finished 16th but you didn't have a pick until #17 after the pick swap in 2018 with Adelaide to get Stocker. That seems like a gamble that suggested you thought you had enough young talent?

I said this on our board but if Dow and Setterfield (or SPS) were the A graders we were hoping for when we drafted/recruited them then we would be looking fantastic atm. Every team has depth players who are just along for the ride and yes we have them but our potential success was supposed to be driven by the youth. They aren’t much good atm and that’s why our side isn’t.

So in light of that, was it premature to add the mature top-ups? I think clubs generally wait until they think they're close before going down that path.

On the other hand, I guess it didn't cost you much in trade terms to add Saad, Williams and Martin.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

In 2019, Carlton finished 16th but you didn't have a pick until #17 after the pick swap in 2018 with Adelaide to get Stocker. That seems like a gamble that suggested you thought you had enough young talent?

Worth noting they had Adelaide's first round pick that they live-traded to GC.

GC grabbed Sam Flanders, and Carlton grabbed Kemp and Philp.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Worth noting they had Adelaide's first round pick that they live-traded to GC.

GC grabbed Sam Flanders, and Carlton grabbed Kemp and Philp.

Yeah so they traded down twice from what would have been pick 4.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

Yeah so they traded down twice from what would have been pick 4.

Yeah. Hard to see the permutations after Adelaide traded that off to GWS, but depending on who you think Carlton rated traded Ash/Serong/Young/Stephens for Stocker, Kemp, and Philp. Who between them have played 7 games.

In hindsight not looking like the greatest trade, but maybe they come right?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Yeah. Hard to see the permutations after Adelaide traded that off to GWS, but depending on who you think Carlton rated traded Ash/Serong/Young/Stephens for Stocker, Kemp, and Philp. Who between them have played 7 games.

In hindsight not looking like the greatest trade, but maybe they come right?

It's more about what it suggests about Carlton's self-assessment. I guess they thought they'd drafted enough elite kids.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

It's more about what it suggests about Carlton's self-assessment. I guess they thought they'd drafted enough elite kids.

Doesn't suggest that at all. Suggests either:

1. They were willing to gamble they'd finish higher than Adelaide in 2019.

2. They rated Stocker as draft prospect and was worth the price in the pick-swap. Then that they rated Kemp and Philp (or some other late first round kids) highly enough that they were worth trading down for (rather than grabbing Flanders.)

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Doesn't suggest that at all. Suggests either:

1. They were willing to gamble they'd finish higher than Adelaide in 2019.

I'd say that is also a reflection of their self-assessment.

They finished 16th in 2019 when they were expecting to improve.

2. They rated Stocker as draft prospect and was worth the price in the pick-swap. Then that they rated Kemp and Philp (or some other late first round kids) highly enough that they were worth trading down for (rather than grabbing Flanders.)

Well, I guess time will tell whether they judged those players astutely.

If the knock on Carlton becomes that they didn't actually get enough quality kids into the club when they had those early picks, I think you could look back at that as an opportunity missed. Same goes for Dow at #3 if it doesn't click for him.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

Well, I guess time will tell whether they judged those players astutely.

If the knock on Carlton becomes that they didn't actually get enough quality kids into the club when they had those early picks, I think you could look back at that as an opportunity missed. Same goes for Dow at #3 if it doesn't click for him.

Early days but happy to out on a limb and say that if they took pick 4 to the 2019 draft and grabbed Caleb Serong they'd be better off. Also note that Adelaide traded the pick 4 to GWS and got GWS's first round, which became Luke Pedlar. (Pick 9 in the 2020 draft.) I think Carlton ****ed up.


Anyway as for Carlton it's only a small number of drafted players that are becoming solid contributors at AFL level, which suggests their talent identification or development of these players when they get to the club is bad. Don't see Carlton getting out of midtable unless that changes.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Yeah, but they're mature additions. That's great if you know you've got the youth coming through but if the youth is questionable it may be premature to go and add those readymades. That will be the question for Carlton in the next 2-3 years and probably the key factor in whether you play finals.

In 2019, Carlton finished 16th but you didn't have a pick until #17 after the pick swap in 2018 with Adelaide to get Stocker. That seems like a gamble that suggested you thought you had enough young talent?

So in light of that, was it premature to add the mature top-ups? I think clubs generally wait until they think they're close before going down that path.

On the other hand, I guess it didn't cost you much in trade terms to add Saad, Williams and Martin.

Pretty much as you say, they cost SFA in terms of trades so we have only given the opportunity of finding 1 player (Saad pick) to get all three in. We have to spend our money on someone so in that regard I think we’ve done a great job. We have 8 mids who were taken in the first round in the last 5 years drafts so if we can’t build a midfield around Cripps after going to the draft that much then we may never do so.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Early days but happy to out on a limb and say that if they took pick 4 to the 2019 draft and grabbed Caleb Serong they'd be better off. Also note that Adelaide traded the pick 4 to GWS and got GWS's first round, which became Luke Pedlar. (Pick 9 in the 2020 draft.) I think Carlton f’ed up.

Anyway as for Carlton it's only a small number of drafted players that are becoming solid contributors at AFL level, which suggests their talent identification or development of these players when they get to the club is bad. Don't see Carlton getting out of midtable unless that changes.

Clubs that don't play finals have to make clear-eyed decisions about players who are 26-27 and older.

Of course you keep picking the A-graders. Carlton will keep picking Cripps. Fremantle will keep picking Fyfe. Sydney keep picking Kennedy and Franklin.

But below that rung, you have to ask whether those mature players are good enough or whether the club would be better served by picking a player 6-7 years younger in that position. If that's not an option because there's simply not the talent coming through to push out those older players who aren't themselves top-liners, that should set off alarm bells.

I think that's the point Kabuki Cornes was making. If Carlton are on the rise and have enough young talent, then it's worth asking whether certain older players still warrant a game. If Carlton simply doesn't have the young talent to push them out, then where does that leave them? That's how teams get stuck between 7th and 14th.

We have 8 mids who were taken in the first round in the last 5 years drafts so if we can’t build a midfield around Cripps after going to the draft that much then we may never do so.

Who are they?

 

[Pablito]

**** what a depressing read, sad thing is there isn't really too much to refute or shoot down.

Soft football club.

 

[outabounds]

It's been such a depressing week. Pretty safe to say we ain't arriving anywhere anytime soon.

 

[BringOn2017]

I don’t think things are that bad. Lost to Richmond and Collingwood by around 3-4 goals, about on par I would think.
From a list management point of view, they will need to retire/move on a few of the older players. Betts and Murphy etc.

Also, get McGovern off your books, free up some more cap space. Spud.

Ill assume Cripps goes and Carlton get two first picks in a trade. That gives you 3 first round (hopefully all 3 in top 10, or at least 2) picks in a midfield dominant draft year.

Add 3 top draft picks in with Weitering, Mckay, Welsh, Saad, Williams, Setterfield, Silvagni and Curnow( if he ever plays again). That’s not a bad mix of 18- 27 year olds to base a team around.

As for Dow, O’Brien and SPS... stick with them. I won’t lie, Dow looks very ordinary. But SPS looks ok and O’Brien has played one game. Maybe someone like Dow will never be a gun mid, but just a role player on the half back or something. That is fine.

There would be at least 8 or 9 other teams whose list I would think needs a lot more years to get right compared to Carlton.

As for club culture, they are being highly competitive in a lot of games which says they are doing something right, they just don’t have that winning mentality yet to grind games out. That also filters to the supporter base, which always assume the worst is going to happen.

my 2 c anyway.

 

[LordLucifer]

Seems like a very thorough analysis to me being an outsider. I think a lot of clubs have exactly the same issues though.You need to throw the coaching staff into the mix and it is complex.

on a side note do your Carlton mates view you as the Grim Reaper for not having the "she'll be right mate" attitude?

Our biggest problem is the player development, I have no doubt that a handful of our players would have kicked on quite significantly if they were at a certain opposition club or two. Clearly we don't have the best development coaches in the business and it is showing onfield.

You are right, the coaching panel needs to be thoroughly reviewed as well, I am not convinced they have the gameday smarts to match it with the other clubs when the heat comes on.

As for being the Grim Reaper ............. yep, got permanently banned from the Carlton board for making these sorts of comments.

 

[LordLucifer]

May not have happened to a fitter player. Is anyone else to blame?

Sorry, can't buy into that line of thinking.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I don’t think things are that bad. Lost to Richmond and Collingwood by around 3-4 goals, about on par I would think.

The next fortnight becomes important. They've got Freo and GC before tougher games against Brisbane and Port.

Two losses and they're 0-6 and that's curtains for 2021. And probably curtains for Teague and several older players.

If they get to 2-4 and then take care of Essendon in R7, they're alive.

 

[fnerd]

Simply have to win this week ,freo got 1/3 of our first choice side out and are at home .
Lose this and they should burn the place down and start again...at least this time round they won't have SOS white anting them from the insde.

 

[Daics35Marvel]

While I’m sure it’s fun to pile on, I’m not sure this thread even fully captures how miserable Carlton are.

since 2013 we haven’t been in the top 8 - not even for a round.

since 2013, we have only been above .500 for 1 week (in 2016 we hit 6-5 then promptly lost 10 straight).

Our best players in the last 20 years:
- Fevola - left club in disgrace
- Judd - knee injury, not even a farewell match
- Koutoufides - phenomenal run, knee injury, never the same again
- Whitnall - kicked 81 goals as a teenager. Essentially out the league at 24 with knee problems
- Waite - Carlton prime crippled by injuries; left and went to North (zero compensation) and promptly played all 25 games his first year
- Docherty - made AA, then back to back knee injuries, now a shell of what he was
- Cripps - made AA, bad run of injuries, now a shell of what he was, likely to leave
- Murphy - AFLCA mvp in 2011. Brownlow favourite in 2012 until he had his collarbone broken; repeated the injury in 2014, never the same again
- Kreuzer - crippled by injuries, never hit his peak
- Betts - forced out by Malthouse, multple AA years at Adelaide
- Curnow - breakout year, kicked 7 goals in his last game, 3 straight knee injuries and may never play again
- Gibbs - left for Adelaide in bad circumstances, completely fell apart
- Nick Stevens - broke his neck, out of the league at 28, horrible post football legacy

Which Carlton players can we even look back on fondly from that run as having had the career they deserved? Kade Simpson (zero AA, a solid journeyman hbf)? After that it’s probably Andrew Carazzo, Heath Scotland and Ed Curnow as the guys who you might remember fondly - with almost all the others’ careers coloured by either their injuries or the nature of their departure.

Really, Sam Walsh should just get out while he can...

Putting aside how sad this post is, the fact that Lance Whitnall is listed as one of the best players over the last 20 years speaks volumes. Talent identification, or lack of it, rather than injuries has been the biggest issue. Wasted top 10 pick after top 10 pick. The one they really did nail, Josh Kennedy, was shipped out in the pursuit of the quick fix.

 

[Thrawn]

May not have happened to a fitter player. Is anyone else to blame?

What are you talking about? Collision injuries have nothing to do with fitness. You could be the fittest person in the world, but if your knee gets hit in a certain way, you can still sprain it. It's just bad luck.

 

[Leeda]

About the same time Port don't choke on Preliminary Final day I dare say.

popular.. never said it was true..

 

[kendrick]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves...

They played Richmond in round 1... A full strength Richmond.. They fell away towards the end but they certainly did control parts of the game.

They then faced Collingwood who won a final last year and have been around the top five teams for the last few years...

They have some injuries to important players already, They do need to beat Freo to be able to stay in the hunt for a finals spot.

I think they should really make a Godfather offer to Clarkson...