When will the Carlton FC Arrive?

[Chief]

Part 2 of this thread is here:

When will the Carlton FC Arrive? Part 2

PART 1 of this thread is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/when-will-the-carlton-fc-arrive.1259822/ ============= We're all thinking it. We're watching this story play out for the 4th time in the last 20 years and it's the same story every time. They have a great list of exciting...

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[The 747]

I can see Geelong eyeing off Walsh at the end of next season when his contract runs out and to replace Selwood.

We could offer two gun defenders, Tuohy and Henderson

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Why was SOS sacked? Carlton fans were acting like he was the saviour of the club when suddenly he got sacked and they turned on him.

Weird.

Who turned on him. The club or fans? Most fans were pissed he got the boot because the circumstances seemed very political and not really based on performance at all.

 

[doppleganger]

I couldn't give a toss about what number we picked them up in the draft, it's what they deliver on the field that is of prime importance.

Yep...and the problem for Carlton is the lack of onfield output from the supposedly talented (aka early draft picks) kids.

Carlton fans lapped up the rebuild message back in 2015, happy to accept salary dumps and list cloggers whilst they stockpiled the early draft picks from the draft.

Who would have guessed that surrounding high drafts picks with list cloggers and poor on-field leadership wouldn't have helped development and now in a position where multiple top10 picks may bomb.

 

[bigm386]

Curious if Teague goes why is Liddle safe? Or idiots like Bruce Mathieson who backed Teague.

I wish Fraser Brown came in with a ticket and got rid of these *ing witches hats on the board.

 

[btdg]

Why was SOS sacked? Carlton fans were acting like he was the saviour of the club when suddenly he got sacked and they turned on him.

Weird.

SOS had a very clear plan and had stuck to it well.

His relationship with people at the club grew pretty toxic because of a range of factors:
- the Gibbs trade left us too thin in the midfield too early, and Bolton (who was going into his 3rd year as coach) was left to face the consequences. After Docherty got injured we crashed to 18th again in 2018

- Bolton pushed heavily in the 2018 for us to recruit mature talent. SOS had previously only wanted and targeted blokes who fit that same Windows between Cripps and Weitering/Curnow/McKay (eg: Kelly) and this started tension. Of course, no one wanted to move to the wooden sooner except McGovern. SOS blamed coaching for this (if we were better, they would come). The coaches blamed SOS (if you had found them, we would be better)

- this reached a crisis in 2019 - we went all on on the young midfielders, lost a bunch of close games and were staring another wooden spoon in the eye. Bolton was sacked, Teague came in and won a bunch of games basically by putting 31yo Murphy and 28yo Curnow in the center at the expense of the young guys. This created more tension: SOS felt it was hurting development.

- The coaches and club demanded we chase a mature mid. We went massively in and prised Shiel out of GWS. He was agreed in principle... then flipped to Essendon at the last minute (as he had every right to do), again citing success as a reason. Again, coaches and club blamed SOS for bot getting Shiel. SOS felt he could have got him if on field performances were better = more tension.

- the Brandon Ellis situation. Liddle wanted Ellis. SOS was a but ambivalent (why bring in a sokid but unspectacular outside mid who isn't in the right age bracket) but worked out a deal. When the Shiel pursuit died, Ellis asked for more money. SOS refused and he went to GC. Liddle was furious bc he wanted his Richmond boy. SoS played GC to get Martin instead. More tension

- also brewing: SOS' kids. Jack is a polarising player: great club man, versatile, but with some severe limitations. Probably worth a shot, but he was our only late pick in the 2015 draft (after 4x first rounders). Then Ben... decent (not grwat) talent but off the pace in attitude. SOS ostensibly stayed out of the decisions around him but it was awkward. Particularly in the end Ben was due to be desisted. Given his age and position another year was arguably warranted but he had shown very little... too hard basket, too much tension

So SOS saw out the draft then left. In the end, it comes down to the club blaming SOS for onfield performance and wanting him to target mature and older players, and SOS being unable to get the mature players because of poor on field performance, with a hefty dose of issues with his sons.

In the end, probably some truth to both perspectives. Pity it has ended up quite toxic... and probably also a pity that Gibbs left when he did as quite a bit stems from that imo

 

[btdg]

Yep...and the problem for Carlton is the lack of onfield output from the supposedly talented (aka early draft picks) kids.

Carlton fans lapped up the rebuild message back in 2015, happy to accept salary dumps and list cloggers whilst they stockpiled the early draft picks from the draft.

Who would have guessed that surrounding high drafts picks with list cloggers and poor on-field leadership wouldn't have helped development and now in a position where multiple top10 picks may bomb.

What alternative option was there? What could/should Carlton have done differently. With specifics.

The best answer to that I've seen is Brandon Ellis as a free agent in 2018... which is pretty weak really

 

[LordLucifer]

If the Hawks beat Ess today (2 points down at half-time), next week Pies defeat Freo & Gold Coast roll North, we may fall to second last if we don't beat Adelaide.

Heads will definitely roll if that unsavoury scenario comes to fruition.

 

[bigm386]

If the Hawks beat Ess today (2 points down at half-time), next week Pies defeat Freo & Gold Coast roll North, we may fall to second last if we don't beat Adelaide.

Heads will definitely roll if that unsavoury scenario comes to fruition.

We are an ice-cream dogs chance in hell of beating Adelaide.

They actually compete

 

[Cool Kangas]

We are an ice-cream dogs chance in hell of beating Adelaide.

They actually compete

What’s an ice cream dog?

 

[Gavin Excell]

We are an ice-cream dogs chance in hell of beating Adelaide.

They actually compete

They even tackle

 

[Doss]

What’s an ice cream dog?

I presume it comes in a rottwaffle cone.

 

[Noidnadroj]

What alternative option was there? What could/should Carlton have done differently. With specifics.

The best answer to that I've seen is Brandon Ellis as a free agent in 2018... which is pretty weak really

Carlton should not have brought in so many ordinary players with the justification seemingly being: ‘They didn’t cost us anything’. The list of rejects from 2014-2019 is woeful. There are so many youngsters and mature aged players who have yet to be given an opportunity to secure via the rookie draft, pre-season draft, late draft picks etc…. Carlton’s mistake was not taking enough of these over that 2014-2019 period, and instead filling their list with blokes who’d proven with other teams they were average or worse.

So don’t trade for average players with some sort of strategy of them being ‘depth’ players or ‘insurance’ in the event of injury ….just because they cost u ‘nothing’’.

The list of recycled rubbish over the last 5-6 years will make your eyes water:

Wood
Jacksch
Whiley
Kerridge
Phillips
Schmedts
Palmer
Pickett
Lamb
Mullett
Jarrod Garlett
Lobbe
Lang
Fasolo

And there were another bunch that were borderline …. Pittonet, Newnes, Kennedy, Setterfield, Plowman.

Of course every team has average players… but not many clubs have gone out of their way to clog their list with so many duds from other clubs.

So don’t bring anyone in from another club any more unless they are 100% guaranteed to be in your best 15-players….that’s where I’d start at the Blues. At least Saad and Williams fit that criteria.



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[boncer34]

I presume it comes in a rottwaffle cone.

Hi Doss

 

[Pleasedonot]

What's your point? We finished 11th last year with a young core. Aiming for finals seems an utterly reasonable position to take in the off season.

The team is playing utterly putrid football at the moment, and so will miss the finals. I still don't understand your point.

My point is that a bunch of Carlton people are now coming out and saying "well, it's not like we were ready to play finals this year" when after you got Saad and Williams last year it was seem as a fait accompli among a lot of your supporters.

 

[Pleasedonot]

Common sense would be understanding clubs have to pay the cap minimum and overpaying 18-20 year olds is not a smart move. We did what you’re suggesting with Charlie and sadly he can’t even get on the park. We signed Dow before he had played a game and he became too comfortable.

Saad and Williams are fine players. Martin needs to get some continuity but he’s a really good player when fit. Gov is a big fat bust. It happens. We aren’t getting the best out of them (and 30 others) in any case.

Recruiting Kelly, Guthrie and Cerra in one off season is fantasy stuff. Beginner mode difficulty stuff.

It's perfectly well saying Williams is a "fine player" but you're paying him ridiculous money over a long contract and he's not near producing what you would want for a bloke on that sort of money, and nothing in his history (and he's not a kid anymore) would suggest he will. Think of players on similar contracts across the league - for the most part they are top flight, consistently AA-calibre...he's not that, and I could ultimately be proved wrong, but I don't think he ever will be. So yeah, he's "fine", but you've made a massive investment for a B+ player at best.

 

[La Dispute]

Carlton should not have brought in so many ordinary players with the justification seemingly being: ‘They didn’t cost us anything’. The list of rejects from 2014-2019 is woeful. There are so many youngsters and mature aged players who have yet to be given an opportunity to secure via the rookie draft, pre-season draft, late draft picks etc…. Carlton’s mistake was not taking enough of these over that 2014-2019 period, and instead filling their list with blokes who’d proven with other teams they were average or worse.

So don’t trade for average players with some sort of strategy of them being ‘depth’ players or ‘insurance’ in the event of injury ….just because they cost u ‘nothing’’.

The list of recycled rubbish over the last 5-6 years will make your eyes water:

Wood
Jacksch
Whiley
Kerridge
Phillips
Schmedts
Palmer
Pickett
Lamb
Mullett
Jarrod Garlett
Lobbe
Lang
Fasolo

And there were another bunch that were borderline …. Pittonet, Newnes, Kennedy, Setterfield, Plowman.

Of course every team has average players… but not many clubs have gone out of their way to clog their list with so many duds from other clubs.

So don’t bring anyone in from another club any more unless they are 100% guaranteed to be in your best 15-players….that’s where I’d start at the Blues. At least Saad and Williams fit that criteria.

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Matt Thomas, Todd Banfield, Sam Lonergan, Aaron Edwards, Troy Chaplin, Chris Knights, Orren Stephenson, Tom Derrickx, Addam Maric, Brad Miller, Shaun Hampson, Ricky Petterd, Andrew Moore and Anthony Miles were pretty rubbish too there bud. The Cousins experiment didn't work out as planned, the Tigers also brought in a meth adled Chris Yarran and traded a first rounder for a total zero games.

Every club brings in low cost insurance, and rebuilding clubs do it more often because the players don't cost much, act as depth for a couple of seasons and you need to hit your salary floor somehow. If they manage to cement a spot in your 22 it's a bonus.

This argument was tired in 2018, it's sad it's still being parroted in 2021.

 

[La Dispute]

It's perfectly well saying Williams is a "fine player" but you're paying him ridiculous money over a long contract and he's not near producing what you would want for a bloke on that sort of money, and nothing in his history (and he's not a kid anymore) would suggest he will. Think of players on similar contracts across the league - for the most part they are top flight, consistently AA-calibre...he's not that, and I could ultimately be proved wrong, but I don't think he ever will be. So yeah, he's "fine", but you've made a massive investment for a B+ player at best.

How is Essendon's 600k investment in Devon Smith tracking? Getting good value out of the 800k spent on Dylan Shiel this season?

There are rubbish contracts on every list.

 

[btdg]

Carlton should not have brought in so many ordinary players with the justification seemingly being: ‘They didn’t cost us anything’. The list of rejects from 2014-2019 is woeful. There are so many youngsters and mature aged players who have yet to be given an opportunity to secure via the rookie draft, pre-season draft, late draft picks etc…. Carlton’s mistake was not taking enough of these over that 2014-2019 period, and instead filling their list with blokes who’d proven with other teams they were average or worse.

So don’t trade for average players with some sort of strategy of them being ‘depth’ players or ‘insurance’ in the event of injury ….just because they cost u ‘nothing’’.

The list of recycled rubbish over the last 5-6 years will make your eyes water:

Wood
Jacksch
Whiley
Kerridge
Phillips
Schmedts
Palmer
Pickett
Lamb
Mullett
Jarrod Garlett
Lobbe
Lang
Fasolo

And there were another bunch that were borderline …. Pittonet, Newnes, Kennedy, Setterfield, Plowman.

Of course every team has average players… but not many clubs have gone out of their way to clog their list with so many duds from other clubs.

So don’t bring anyone in from another club any more unless they are 100% guaranteed to be in your best 15-players….that’s where I’d start at the Blues. At least Saad and Williams fit that criteria.

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

"Not bring in ordinary players" is not a strategy itself. It's arguing against what Carlton did. That's not proposing something different.

Again, what would you have done instead?

Let's take the first year of the rebuild (2015 - I know you like to include 2014 because that includes some spectacularly bad decisions to make fun of, but it was part of a totally different set of circumstances at the club).

In 2015, when the season was done, we had 4 players need to be traded (Henderson, Bell, Yarran, Menzel) and three retire (Judd, Carazzo, Ellard).
We then delisted: Cameron Giles, Blaine Johnson, Fraser Russell, Matthew Watson, Tom Fields, Brad Walsh, Robert Warnock, Nick Holman (pre resurgence).

After the player trades are done, you have picks 1, 19, 20, 21, 28 (and a future Geelong first).

If you accept Silvagni, you need to account add 7-15 players just to round out the SENIOR list.

You have been offered the following trades:
- Turn picks 20 and 21 into pick 10 (Charlie Curnow) and a mid-round pick
- Turn the Geelong pick + 28 into pick 8 (Harry McKay)

Assuming you accept Carlton's strategy of wanting the 3x top 10 picks to get the 'bookends' in place, you now need to fill 11 Senior List spots.

Your choices:
- Keep any of the delisted players
- Accept any/all of Kerridge, Plowman, Phillips, Lamb, Sumner (all included in the above pick trades)
- Take Matthew Wright AND Daniel Gorringe in the PSD
- fill the remaining 11 list spots with picks in the 50+ range in the draft.
- Reverse the McKay/Curnow trades and 4 picks in the 20s rather than 2 extra picks in the top 10
- Add any other player traded for in that period, providing you can make a realistic case that they would have considered going to bottom placed Carlton, and you can explain how we beat the trade offered (Eg: maybe we can get Jake Melksham for pick 21).

Now, your proposed strategy was "Don't recruit any players who aren't in your best 15". Let's see how that stacks up?

The best 8 players on Carlton's list at this point are Docherty, Cripps, Murphy, Kreuzer, Simpson, Ed Curnow, Zac Tuohy, Dale Thomas. This is fairly clear-cut.

Players 9-15 are (IMO): Levi Casboult (coming off a career high 26 goals in 22 games), Crippled Andrew Walker (12mths off retirement), 32yo Andrew Carazzo (12mth off retirement), Liam Jones (before his defensive shift), Sam Rowe, Dennis Armfield and Andrejs Everitt.


So again, what's the strategy. If the answer is to make 11 picks at the end of the draft, then the rules are:
- no cherrypicking. It's 11 random picks, not 11 players who have succeeded in hindsight.
- no recycled players, unless there is a clear case that the players were an OBVIOUS best 15 player for Carlton in 2015.

Remember, whoever you choose is going to Carlton to play in a team where Dennis Armfield is a top 10 player once Walker and Kreuzer get injured in the 2015 off-season...

 

[citizen-erased]

I can see Geelong eyeing off Walsh at the end of next season when his contract runs out and to replace Selwood.

Much like McKay, simply can't be allowed to happen.
Those 2 & Weitering are effectively the only top tier talent performing for them at the moment.

He's especially important being the younger of the 3.

 

[btdg]

My point is that a bunch of Carlton people are now coming out and saying "well, it's not like we were ready to play finals this year" when after you got Saad and Williams last year it was seem as a fait accompli among a lot of your supporters.

It was never a 'fait accompli among a lot of supporters'. Most Carlton supporters were reasonably optimistic that having finished 11th and added players, we would challenge for finals. That is not an unreasonable position to hold, at all.

If is also not a contradiction to say that we werent' ready to play finals this year. Nor is it a contradiction to say that was 'expected', either. Most media, and Carlton supporters, thought that this year we would challenge for finals, and ultimately fall short. It's a bit of a transition year, with guys like Murphy and Betts still hanging around, and the young guys having had an awful year last year (with many trapped in the bubble, not playing seniors but no reserves).

In other words, it is ok to 'hope' for a finals challenge, while also suspecting that you are not quite ready.

In practice, I don't think that view has been shown to be wrong, at all. Last 3 weeks aside, we have comfortably beaten most teams outside the 8. We've also been competitive with, but clearly off the pace, all of the teams in the top 8. The last 3 weeks have been woeful: they've also been played in a COVID bubble, all interstate, in the midst of a media feeding frenzy. It seems to be all falling apart a bit - that happens, though sometimes. The players have lost form and confidence in tough circumstances. Now: we're back home, have a much easier run of games coming up; there's a solid chance it flips around and we end up somewhere around 10-12 again once the season is done (or the meltdown continues and we don't, in fairly entertaining fashion I suspect fro most people in this trhead).

So again, I still don't understand the point. Is it that Carlton supporters were wrong to be slightly and reasonably optimistic in the off-season? That's hardly unique to Carlton?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

It's perfectly well saying Williams is a "fine player" but you're paying him ridiculous money over a long contract and he's not near producing what you would want for a bloke on that sort of money, and nothing in his history (and he's not a kid anymore) would suggest he will. Think of players on similar contracts across the league - for the most part they are top flight, consistently AA-calibre...he's not that, and I could ultimately be proved wrong, but I don't think he ever will be. So yeah, he's "fine", but you've made a massive investment for a B+ player at best.

It’s a massive investment no denying. Generally you need to pay overs to recruit free agents as a bottom half club and he’s probably a 650k-700k player otherwise though B+ at best is harsh. He’s another player who we just haven’t seen the best of this year. Comfortable in the move as he’ll be a very good player for a very long time. McGovern’s contract is the true shocker, sadly followed by Charlie but that was unforeseeable.

 

[freddy mercury]

Matt Thomas, Todd Banfield, Sam Lonergan, Aaron Edwards, Troy Chaplin, Chris Knights, Orren Stephenson, Tom Derrickx, Addam Maric, Brad Miller, Shaun Hampson, Ricky Petterd, Andrew Moore and Anthony Miles were pretty rubbish too there bud. The Cousins experiment didn't work out as planned, the Tigers also brought in a meth adled Chris Yarran and traded a first rounder for a total zero games.

Every club brings in low cost insurance, and rebuilding clubs do it more often because the players don't cost much, act as depth for a couple of seasons and you need to hit your salary floor somehow. If they manage to cement a spot in your 22 it's a bonus.

This argument was tired in 2018, it's sad it's still being parroted in 2021.

Why have they won 3 of the last 4 flags and your club don't even look likely for the next 10 years?

 

[Donnini]

Carlton should not have brought in so many ordinary players with the justification seemingly being: ‘They didn’t cost us anything’. The list of rejects from 2014-2019 is woeful. There are so many youngsters and mature aged players who have yet to be given an opportunity to secure via the rookie draft, pre-season draft, late draft picks etc…. Carlton’s mistake was not taking enough of these over that 2014-2019 period, and instead filling their list with blokes who’d proven with other teams they were average or worse.

So don’t trade for average players with some sort of strategy of them being ‘depth’ players or ‘insurance’ in the event of injury ….just because they cost u ‘nothing’’.

The list of recycled rubbish over the last 5-6 years will make your eyes water:

Wood
Jacksch
Whiley
Kerridge
Phillips
Schmedts
Palmer
Pickett
Lamb
Mullett
Jarrod Garlett
Lobbe
Lang
Fasolo

And there were another bunch that were borderline …. Pittonet, Newnes, Kennedy, Setterfield, Plowman.

Of course every team has average players… but not many clubs have gone out of their way to clog their list with so many duds from other clubs.

So don’t bring anyone in from another club any more unless they are 100% guaranteed to be in your best 15-players….that’s where I’d start at the Blues. At least Saad and Williams fit that criteria.



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

We had an obligation to fill 95% of TPP.

How are we going to do that by paying fourth round picks $500k?

 

[Donnini]

Why have they won 3 of the last 4 flags and your club don't even look likely for the next 10 years?

Sure, what about your club though?

 

[La Dispute]

Why have they won 3 of the last 4 flags and your club don't even look likely for the next 10 years?

What's your guess?

I'd say their review at the end of 2016, bringing in Neile Balme, introducing mindfulness as a top-down performance tool, wiping their debit and overhauling their footy department, nailing picks across the board - especially later ND, PSD and rookie selections, the ascension of Dustin Martin as the undisputed greatest finals player of our generation, stumbling upon a gameplan that disrupts any opposition strategy and more important holds up in finals are some pretty clear reasons why they've been successful over the past 5 years.

What's patently clear is recruiting duds (it also has to be noted that Richmond's intention was completely different to ours. The Tigers brought in mature duds in an attempt to scrape into the finals to placate their rabid supporter base, we did it because we were needed immediate depth as players left and our best 22 thinned considerably in the 2015 off-season, as we lost Judd, Carrazoo, Henderson and Yarran. At that point in time our best 22 was already awful) didn't prohibit Richmond's eventual success.