Travel When'll we travel overseas again / how to get out of Australia?

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scottishfiction

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long story short, I want to go live in the UK. it's for 'compassionate reasons' but there's no real tangible tie – we obviously aren't married, have never lived together, etc.

I've read some pretty harsh stories about exiting Australia: a guy on ozbargain had a Korean partner, a child born there, and he'd put down money on a deposit for a home, and he had a job lined up there. he only got the go-ahead a couple of hours before heading to the airport. if they're being that harsh on someone with documented connections and a clear pathway to not coming back in the next 18 months, what hope does anyone else have?

I don't really know what to do. there's talk of bubbles with certain Asian countries or New Zealand; do you think any place we could go, Brits could also go? I'd rather see this person for a couple of weeks than not at all.

additionally – I'm able to go live there, but how liberal is the UK Government in letting in new citizens? seems relatively lax, but again, would Australia let me leave if I had a visa?

furthermore, I think it's a good thread to just keep an update on when we can leave. looks like July is the time. I honestly think they'll open it up, but it'll be two weeks of self-paid quarantine, I just can't see the average soft Australian copping this sh*t for what'll be almost 18 months. it'll get to a point where they sort of throw their arms up. I'm not professional though. Frydenburg also threw up January 1 as a potential date. what I would give for that to be the ******* case...
 

revo333

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furthermore, I think it's a good thread to just keep an update on when we can leave. looks like July is the time. I honestly think they'll open it up, but it'll be two weeks of self-paid quarantine, I just can't see the average soft Australian copping this sh*t for what'll be almost 18 months. it'll get to a point where they sort of throw their arms up. I'm not professional though. Frydenburg also threw up January 1 as a potential date. what I would give for that to be the ******* case...
People can throw their arms up all they want, planes are not going to start appearing in the sky straight away.

I think there will be more rage if state boarders are still closed in 2021.

I think Alan Jones said today International travel is very unlikely until the second half of 2021.
 

JG22

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I can't see why you would need to hotel quarantine if you'd been vaccinated which is a real possibility by mid next year.

I've always thought would we need almost a proof of vaccine and if so we're basically free to go. Some ways to punish non vaxxers.
 

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scottishfiction

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I can't see why you would need to hotel quarantine if you'd been vaccinated which is a real possibility by mid next year.

I've always thought would we need almost a proof of vaccine and if so we're basically free to go. Some ways to punish non vaxxers.
apparently airlines are all helping fund this 15-minute tester – you line up (distanced), they test you, and if you're positive you're off to quarantine at home and if you aren't you're free to board. seems a very good idea.
 

puritan

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apparently airlines are all helping fund this 15-minute tester – you line up (distanced), they test you, and if you're positive you're off to quarantine at home and if you aren't you're free to board. seems a very good idea.
Reckon if that style of testing is legit, then that would be ideal.
 

Great8

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QANTAS under the impression that we'll be looking at NZ travel in July and international travel in November

Aligns well with my Nov 17 cruise
Definitely the plan of Qantas. I still think they are being a tad optimistic and even unrealistic as it would take 6-9 months to retrain pilots if they had a concrete start date but hope it comes to fruition.
 
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Seeds

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Definitely the plan of Qantas. I still think they are being a tad optimistic and even unrealistic as it would take 6-9 months to retrain pilots if they had a concrete start date but hope it comes to fruition.
Pilots don’t just lose their skills. plus they would all still be doing domestic flights. There is zero chance retraining for pilots adds a single extra day to borders being closed. not to mention foreign airlines are already flying and will start coming to Australia immediately.
 

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Great8

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Pilots don’t just lose their skills. plus they would all still be doing domestic flights. There is zero chance retraining for pilots adds a single extra day to borders being closed. not to mention foreign airlines are already flying and will start coming to Australia immediately.
You do know that the crew flying domestic 737’s are not qualified to fly 787’s or A380’s and that 65% of the Captains of that fleet have been laid off or haven’t flown for many months. It is also a legal requirement to keep those hours up by flying or doing sim work which many aren’t currently but I believe they will be ramping up training soon.
I work in management for one of the Qantas arms and see the emails AJ sends out and deal with pilots every day and I’m only going by their estimation that it will require 6 months minimum to get the fleet back to a decent capacity. I’ll give you a bit of a rundown from my 20+ years in the industry.

I don’t know how many sims are being discussed as being necessary, but lets assume 5 training, plus a check, so 6 per pilot. I would be surprised if it’s less, but it wouldn’t expect it to be much more. Assuming 100% utilisation of the sim, then you’d basically be able to produce 1 two man crew per day. Of course the sims are never up 100%, they aren’t themselves manned that way (i.e. sim instructors and senior checks), and I’m not accounting for SOs. I expect the real rate would be more like one crew every two days. With 10 aircraft, you’d have about 70 crews. So, 140 days just to cover the sim work.

But, once you start churning crews out, they’ll need recurrent sims, so, that will start to eat into the available sim time.


As for the A380’s I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t return and the QF fleet went to all B787’s and A330’s. For the A380’s if you called it three months to get crews up for which you have Captains, you now have to train up around another 60 or so. That would take about 4 months per person, but the pipeline could only hold about 20 at a time. So perhaps somewhere between 8 months and a year to get them out. But, you probably also don’t have enough Senior Check/Training Captains either, so you’ll need to generate them from somewhere. My guess would be that you could get the entire 380 operation back in around 18 months, starting with about 4 aircraft, and building up to the full 12.

With the current A330 and B737 fleet you could definitely fly the closer International routes with the current staff but it would be a good 6 months to get the B787 staff up to speed to fly all the destinations. As I said, training should be ramping up fron now and hopefully once a concrete date is known there will be be atleast some services to build from. I’d imagine the London and possibly New York routes will be the first to see ULH action
 
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Seeds

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You do know that the crew flying domestic 737’s are not qualified to fly 787’s or A380’s and that 65% of the Captains of that fleet have been laid off or haven’t flown for many months. It is also a legal requirement to keep those hours up by flying or doing sim work which many aren’t currently but I believe they will be ramping up training soon.
I work in management for one of the Qantas arms and see the emails AJ sends out and deal with pilots every day and I’m only going by their estimation that it will require 6 months minimum to get the fleet back to a decent capacity. I’ll give you a bit of a rundown from my 20+ years in the industry.

I don’t know how many sims are being discussed as being necessary, but lets assume 5 training, plus a check, so 6 per pilot. I would be surprised if it’s less, but it wouldn’t expect it to be much more. Assuming 100% utilisation of the sim, then you’d basically be able to produce 1 two man crew per day. Of course the sims are never up 100%, they aren’t themselves manned that way (i.e. sim instructors and senior checks), and I’m not accounting for SOs. I expect the real rate would be more like one crew every two days. With 10 aircraft, you’d have about 70 crews. So, 140 days just to cover the sim work.

But, once you start churning crews out, they’ll need recurrent sims, so, that will start to eat into the available sim time.


As for the A380’s I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t return and the QF fleet went to all B787’s and A330’s. For the A380’s if you called it three months to get crews up for which you have Captains, you now have to train up around another 60 or so. That would take about 4 months per person, but the pipeline could only hold about 20 at a time. So perhaps somewhere between 8 months and a year to get them out. But, you probably also don’t have enough Senior Check/Training Captains either, so you’ll need to generate them from somewhere. My guess would be that you could get the entire 380 operation back in around 18 months, starting with about 4 aircraft, and building up to the full 12.

With the current A330 and B737 fleet you could definitely fly the closer International routes with the current staff but it would be a good 6 months to get the B787 staff up to speed to fly all the destinations. As I said, training should be ramping up fron now and hopefully once a concrete date is known there will be be atleast some services to build from. I’d imagine the London and possibly New York routes will be the first to see ULH action
if There is any additional requirements to retrain Qantas will do that before borders are open. They aren’t going to just lose massive amount of money due to managememt incompetence. And borders aren’t just going to open unexpectedly. There will be many months foward warning. Plus as I said, other airlines that are already flying internationally can fly here. Not to mention domestic planes currently being flown will be diverted to international routes.
 

Great8

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if There is any additional requirements to retrain Qantas will do that before borders are open. They aren’t going to just lose massive amount of money due to managememt incompetence. And borders aren’t just going to open unexpectedly. There will be many months foward warning. Plus as I said, other airlines that are already flying internationally can fly here. Not to mention domestic planes currently being flown will be diverted to international routes.
Qantas still haven’t been given a firm date of opening so as yet there is still a massive amount of training to undertake. If October 31st (which is the date mentioned) ends up being the actual date then yes there should be enough fleet trained to atleast start a few long haul routes just probably not with the A380’s. Other airlines would have similar conundrums but are flying at a greater capacity currently so could come straight back to Australia if required.
The domestic 737’s can most definitely be used for NZ and Pacific with some Bali at the limit of its range and the A330’s can do most of Asia. The Europe and US long haul needs to be done with the 787’s of which currently there is only a few crews that are currently able to fly
Even though optimism within the company is quite high for NZ there is most definitely some concern that Europe and US will be closer to December but as you said there will be other airlines. I’m only looking at it from the Qantas angle though
 

Billy ray

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Hell no
Qantas still haven’t been given a firm date of opening so as yet there is still a massive amount of training to undertake. If October 31st (which is the date mentioned) ends up being the actual date then yes there should be enough fleet trained to atleast start a few long haul routes just probably not with the A380’s. Other airlines would have similar conundrums but are flying at a greater capacity currently so could come straight back to Australia if required.
The domestic 737’s can most definitely be used for NZ and Pacific with some Bali at the limit of its range and the A330’s can do most of Asia. The Europe and US long haul needs to be done with the 787’s of which currently there is only a few crews that are currently able to fly
Even though optimism within the company is quite high for NZ there is most definitely some concern that Europe and US will be closer to December but as you said there will be other airlines. I’m only looking at it from the Qantas angle though
Do you know whether the manufacturers of flight sim machines have increased production at all?
 

Great8

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The trials of the Qantas vaccine E-passports went really well last week and with a few more minor tweaks from developers it should be up and running soon which will be great if this Singapore bubble eventuates in July
 

Seeds

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The trials of the Qantas vaccine E-passports went really well last week and with a few more minor tweaks from developers it should be up and running soon which will be great if this Singapore bubble eventuates in July
The fact they had to do a trial on something so straight foward is really concerning.
 

Great8

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The fact they had to do a trial on something so straight foward is really concerning.
Yeah the IT stuff is well outside my realm of knowledge but obviously there is work involved on getting linked up to every testing lab so results can be uploaded to the app. Trials were done on recent repat flights and it seemed to go smoothly by all reports.
I guess like all these things it’s just a matter of getting all airlines and databases on the same page so to speak and possibly waiting to see which vaccines the various governments deem acceptable or not?
 

Seeds

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Yeah the IT stuff is well outside my realm of knowledge but obviously there is work involved on getting linked up to every testing lab so results can be uploaded to the app. Trials were done on recent repat flights and it seemed to go smoothly by all reports.
I guess like all these things it’s just a matter of getting all airlines and databases on the same page so to speak and possibly waiting to see which vaccines the various governments deem acceptable or not?
Of course there is work involved. But the fact they announced to the public they had to have trials to test it like this was extremely complicated was just bizarre. its like they are just assuming they will fail it the first couple of times so by declaring it a trial then a failure becomes more acceptable. This wasn’t a vaccine trial. It’s a fairly simple IT system.
 

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