Analysis Where are we at?

[Ricmel]

Watching the Zebras on Sunday - seeing King have a scare and looking at the "seconds", I wondered where we are in the premiership window. This has been a difficult year with injuries and what nots to key players. So, if we wiped the slate clean and imagine us starting in 2020 with no injuries, the team looks something like,

Wilkie Battle Geary
Webster Carlisle Roberton
Billings Ross Newnes
King Bruce Parker
Gresham Membrey Sinclair

Marshall Hannebury Steven Steele

Acres ????????

Is this a team that can challenge for top 4? I still feel we are 1 A grade and 1 B+ grade mid away from it. This to me is a team that should challenge for 6th - 10th type positions. And there is not a lot of depth to back this team up. What do you think?

(I know there will be quibbles about who is in and out of this team but the core is there and I don't see a player on the list that changes my opinion.)

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

Watching the Zebras on Sunday - seeing King have a scare and looking at the "seconds", I wondered where we are in the premiership window. This has been a difficult year with injuries and what nots to key players. So, if we wiped the slate clean and imagine us starting in 2020 with no injuries, the team looks something like,

Wilkie Battle Geary
Webster Carlisle Roberton
Billings Ross Newnes
King Bruce Parker
Gresham Membrey Sinclair

Marshall Hannebury Steven Steele

Acres ????????

Is this a team that can challenge for top 4? I still feel we are 1 A grade and 1 B+ grade mid away from it. This to me is a team that should challenge for 6th - 10th type positions. And there is not a lot of depth to back this team up. What do you think?

(I know there will be quibbles about who is in and out of this team but the core is there and I don't see a player on the list that changes my opinion.)

the hope is Billings, Marshall, Gresh and Battle become A grade... that happens we are right up there if they become run of the mill we stay run of the mill...
it can happen very quickly , Gaz Jr was one season a slow lazy inconsistant b grader, in a blink of an eye hes the best in the game ..
what we need is a progression from a good and occasionally great player into a consistantly great player.. and that player who does it might not even be those three ...
Jack Steven is our best player from the last three years back in the day we would have thought Armo, McEvoy, Lynch and Winmar would be the guys to become the stars of our team

 

[Saintbloke]

Until we get a better midfield and another goal kicker, we're not going far up the ladder and will be restricted to battling with those around us in the bottom half of the ladder. We haven't made a lot of progress.

 

[St Neil]

With the exception of the midfield and a second ruckman I think we look OK. Lots of talent, especially with players like Battle, Wilkie, King and Marshall coming on. Great to see improvement among our taller players.

Add in a couple of elite mids and the team could transform quite quickly, especially with natural improvement among our young players. Of course, elite mids aren’t easy to get.

 

[majortinkle]

We need Bytel and this years 1st rounder to be a-grade mids and then we're in the window.....that makes us at least 3 years away

Unless we get some free agent or trade magic which I think is unlikely at the level needed.

 

[Ricmel]

With the exception of the midfield and a second ruckman I think we look OK. Lots of talent, especially with players like Battle, Wilkie, King and Marshall coming on. Great to see improvement among our taller players.

Add in a couple of elite mids and the team could transform quite quickly, especially with natural improvement among our young players. Of course, elite mids aren’t easy to get.

This is about where I think we are. I have faith that M.King will be our Buddy Franklin, that Battle will be our Brian Lake. Carlisle is already an elite CHB. So our spine and forwards and backs are in pretty good shape.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

With the exception of the midfield and a second ruckman I think we look OK. Lots of talent, especially with players like Battle, Wilkie, King and Marshall coming on. Great to see improvement among our taller players.

Add in a couple of elite mids and the team could transform quite quickly, especially with natural improvement among our young players. Of course, elite mids aren’t easy to get.

i think an elite mid is easier to find than an elite big... every draft puts up at least 3 guys who become elite midfielders some times we go multiple years without finding an elite big in the draft

 

[St Neil]

This is about where I think we are. I have faith that M.King will be our Buddy Franklin, that Battle will be our Brian Lake. Carlisle is already an elite CHB. So our spine and forwards and backs are in pretty good shape.

Plus we look good around the ground. It’s the midfield which is the issue. It’s also where games tend to be won and lost.

Hannebery will be fantastic for us but we need to find some real class and pace. Bytel developing would be a huge bonus. Landing a free agent would really kick us along.

 

[plugger66]

Baring injury we have our ruck now which is a huge bonus. No need what so ever for another senior ruck. Just a back up. Again baring injury and king being as good as we think we have our marking forwards settled. Need a class small forward or hope lonie or Parker can improve to at least b grade. Backline looks good for talls. Medium and smalls might need some work. The problem is clearly the midfield. Unless hanners can get to at least 2017 form next year and we keep jack we are still in for a world of hurt. Gresh is good now and should get better. Same will billings but dunstan Ross and even Steele arent the answers. Give Steele an out if he tags because he can be close to elite doing that. Need 2 class mids. Outside with pace. inside with run and carry and at least average kicking.

Not as far away from the top 6 if we can do something to fix the midfield. As for the next premiership side well that’s just a waste of time for saints supporters. Not saying we won’t win one but every single player on our list may or may not be playing when it happens. The current side is about 8 players short of making the last week

 

[St Neil]

i think an elite mid is easier to find than an elite big... every draft puts up at least 3 guys who become elite midfielders some times we go multiple years without finding an elite big in the draft

We seem to have done well with blokes like Marshall and Battle, and they were bargain picks.

For whatever reason the elite mids are eluding us. Or we are not developing well enough. But these things are often cyclical as well.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

We have a good solid team with plenty of depth. ( being tested at the moment ).
If we get Steven back, and acquire/develop a couple of elites, we are looking in really good shape.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

We seem to have done well with blokes like Marshall and Battle, and they were bargain picks.

For whatever reason the elite mids are eluding us. Or we are not developing well enough. But these things are often cyclical as well.

To me , the recruiters seem to be looking for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow ,wanting everything, and tending to go slightly prospective at the start of the draft..."this guy is fast, if we can teach him to play footy, he'll be great ".
Then there is the likes of :
https://www.zerohanger.com/2017-afl-draft-prospects-james-worpel-16798/
https://www.zerohanger.com/2017-afl-draft-prospects-ben-paton-16955/
Going much later.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

Baring injury we have our ruck now which is a huge bonus. No need what so ever for another senior ruck. Just a back up. Again baring injury and king being as good as we think we have our marking forwards settled. Need a class small forward or hope lonie or Parker can improve to at least b grade. Backline looks good for talls. Medium and smalls might need some work. The problem is clearly the midfield. Unless hanners can get to at least 2017 form next year and we keep jack we are still in for a world of hurt. Gresh is good now and should get better. Same will billings but dunstan Ross and even Steele arent the answers. Give Steele an out if he tags because he can be close to elite doing that. Need 2 class mids. Outside with pace. inside with run and carry and at least average kicking.

Not as far away from the top 6 if we can do something to fix the midfield. As for the next premiership side well that’s just a waste of time for saints supporters. Not saying we won’t win one but every single player on our list may or may not be playing when it happens. The current side is about 8 players short of making the last week

i think with small forwards its a bit of the chicken and the egg situation if the big forwards do their job and the midfield keeps the supply up then i think guys like Lonie or Parker could look very much consistant Bgrade players .. but when the big forwards are failing and the midfield are not getting it in there cleanly i think even the likes of Eddie Betts can look below B grade ...
i dont see the small forward role as one you invest big dollars into because if the mids and the tall forwards are quality i think the average small forward will be sufficent

 

[plugger66]

i think with small forwards its a bit of the chicken and the egg situation if the big forwards do their job and the midfield keeps the supply up then i think guys like Lonie or Parker could look very much consistant Bgrade players .. but when the big forwards are failing and the midfield are not getting it in there cleanly i think even the likes of Eddie Betts can look below B grade ...
i dont see the small forward role as one you invest big dollars into because if the mids and the tall forwards are quality i think the average small forward will be sufficent

No I wouldn't pay more than a ham sandwich for a small forward. We need to spend big on the really important position that we lack and thats the midfield. People will say we have heaps in the cap and that's true but when you talk spending big that also means draft picks. Cant waste them on a small foward when we have other issues. Same for a small back.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

No I wouldn't pay more than a ham sandwich for a small forward. We need to spend big on the really important position that we lack and thats the midfield. People will say we have heaps in the cap and that's true but when you talk spending big that also means draft picks. Cant waste them on a small foward when we have other issues. Same for a small back.

look i think the idea is that we know one draft isnt going to fix the issue so we have worked on getting the hardest parts right first ... we have had failures trying to get that part right but i think long term if King becomes what we hope and Battle becomes what we hope finding the mids competent enough to feed them the ball often enough is going to be easier than it would to have the mids and trying to find the bigs to work with them ... look at Judd at Carlton.. best mid in the comp amounts to nothing when you have your key forward as Sentana OHalpin

 

[plugger66]

look i think the idea is that we know one draft isnt going to fix the issue so we have worked on getting the hardest parts right first ... we have had failures trying to get that part right but i think long term if King becomes what we hope and Battle becomes what we hope finding the mids competent enough to feed them the ball often enough is going to be easier than it would to have the mids and trying to find the bigs to work with them ... look at Judd at Carlton.. best mid in the comp amounts to nothing when you have your key forward as Sentana OHalpin

That's fine but we have them now. The talk of letting another draft pick go for another tall makes me want to spew up. Talking Ben king by the way. Like you said Judd couldn't win games because of forwards but plugger couldn't win games because of mids. Its now time for using our high draft picks on the best mid we can find. New or used.

 

[Human Person]

I think we're in a potentially precarious position if we don't play our cards right. Losing Steven in the mid this year has exposed us a bit, and he's not young enough that we can rely on him being around for the next premier stint though. Gresh looks to me to be the air apparent for Steven in the mid, based on X-factor and ability to turn a game. He doesn't have Jack's speed but his disposal is much better. Billings is having a career best year despite not having as much quality around him.

I think we need Lonie back. We're missing some quality link up play to send us inside 50 which he was doing brilliantly before he went down.

Clark is still too early to make a call on for me. He's best suited to playing in the guts, but he doesnt have the body for it yet. Give him another preseason and some time time in the gym and we'll know more. Coff seems to have second year blues, but I wonder if we've found his best position yet. His disposal and decision making off half back are great, but his defensive work isn't up to scratch for a defender, I wonder how he'd go as a high half forward.

Forward line needs a King (or two) but could be awhile before he (or they) can consistently own the key spot.

Not sure if we need to pump more youth in and build for another year or two, or sacrifice picks for established payers and try to go for it. As I said, it's precarious if we do it wrong. Considering the club bought in 4 mature agers last year, I'd assume they want to go for it and bring in established players. But I'm not sure it's the best choice.

I think we're mid table at the moment, and will continue to be without a clear plan for the future.

 

[Ricmel]

I think we're mid table at the moment, and will continue to be without a clear plan for the future.

Trying to be real, I think the earliest we can be top 4 (and therefore seriously challenging) is 2021 but more likely 2022/23. To me that gives us picks and time to find one A grader via the draft - and all our picks next 2 years should be with the intent of finding that player. But we still need to bring in a big name from another club. We keep saying it is easy to find mids but the last A grade mid we found was over 10 years ago.

Club needs to go hard at a free agent sometime in the next 2 years is my view. Otherwise we will likely have another lower half of the 8 dynasty.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

Still think our major issue is age. Our players currently 26 or over are ...
Rowe, Armo, Geary, Brown, Steven, Sav, Hanners, Robbo*, Carlisle, Bruce, Newnes, Ross & Longer

When compared to any finals side, we have a serious lack of quality experienced players. Indeed outside of GC and maybe Carlton, that is probably the worst group of experienced players in the AFL.

Going forward we therefore have SFA leadership, and a lot of ?? about whether young players will develop and fill key roles. For instance, if I am looking at a best 22 for 2021, IMO we have very very few locks.

JWebb, ??, ??
Battle, Carlisle, ??
Billings, Gresh, Hanners
??, King, ??
??, Membery, ??
Marshall, Steele, ??
??, ??, ??, ??

I would like to think that at least 4 of Steven, Clarke, Coff, Parker, Wilkie & our top 10 pick from 2019 draft are on that list too. But realistically we cant be sure on any of these 6. Lets say 4 really make it (+ King who I added above despite not even playing a game).

That still leaves at least 8 spots up for grabs (assuming we are a genuinely good side and not just an average one). For me, the less of these roles we fill with solid but flawed citizens (eg Geary, DMac, Newnes, Sav, Ross, Bruce, Dunstan, Acres, Sincs, Kent, Lonie etc) the better we are as a team. IMO, can have no more than 2-4 of these types as best 22 (not depth) if we want to be top 4.

So our challenge is to find about 4-5 walk up starts over the next 24 -30 months (not counting our top 10 pick this year) to dislodge players in the group above. So something like:

An elite A grade player via trade. Either established (eg Whitfield) or elite talent that emerges (eg Bing)
Another future second round special (eg Hanners / Steele)
A nailed top 10 mid
An relative unknown to really explode (eg Paton, Bytel, White, Long)
Significantly upgrading a solid citizen via trade (eg the Acres for Langdon idea)

So overall where are we currently at? IMO, absolutely no mans land.
We have a below average coach, no currently elite players and we have beaten about 3 or 4 finals teams in 4 years. We also have limited depth (see Sandy results), and too many best 22 players who are B grade / comfortable. We have been in this dead spot between 7-16 for a while, and will almost certainly remain there this year. IMO, we did well to stem the bleeding and recover from the mess we were in post 2011. But almost a decade after our last GF, we are still clearly a long long way off the pace of the top 2-3 teams - both on and off the field (which is where our standard should be set).

So where are we going? That the million dollar question isn't it. I think some really solid foundations have been laid. But for me its time to significantly raise our standards in terms of what we view as acceptable. IMO if we don't shake up a lot of things across the next 6 months, we risk remaining fundamentally average for the foreseeable future.

Just my 2 cents

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

That's fine but we have them now. The talk of letting another draft pick go for another tall makes me want to spew up. Talking Ben king by the way. Like you said Judd couldn't win games because of forwards but plugger couldn't win games because of mids. Its now time for using our high draft picks on the best mid we can find. New or used.

we had the mids with plugger its just getting everyone on the park at the same time never eventuated .. also that period of time the game was much more differant than today Plugger could kick 10 and we would still lose by 6 goals so the mids got it to him enough, he converted enough but we leaked goals ..

i agree with you on our path now to hit the draft and the trades to improve the mids is at the most important right now .. i dont see Ben King a priority short term to get him out of Gold coast now would cost lots (draft pick wise) and not really solve any problems ... thats not to say you dont enquire but its not a high priority for us

 

[majortinkle]

3 years time, Bytel and 2019's 1st rounders are shoo-ins to be the A-graders.......then I think the following lineup could be a top 4 team.....we'd kill for this age profile now....

Mckenzie 26yrs, Carlisle 30, Wilkie 26
Coffield 22, Battle 23, Webster 28
Billings 26, Ross 29, 2019 1st rounder 21
Marshall 26, Steele 26, Bytel 22
Kent 28, King 21, Gresham 24
Lonie 25, Bruce 30, Membrey 28
Clark 23, Acres 26, Parker 26, Long 24

Depth: Marsh 26, White 25, Paton 23, Newnes 29, Sinclair 27, Dunstan 27, Mayo 22

 

[SaintsSeptember]

No I wouldn't pay more than a ham sandwich for a small forward. We need to spend big on the really important position that we lack and thats the midfield. People will say we have heaps in the cap and that's true but when you talk spending big that also means draft picks. Cant waste them on a small foward when we have other issues. Same for a small back.

Right now we need a guy who can play like Boak and a guy who can play like Gaff.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

3 years time, Bytel and 2019's 1st rounders are shoo-ins to be the A-graders.......then I think the following lineup could be a top 4 team.....we'd kill for this age profile now....

Mckenzie 26yrs, Carlisle 30, Wilkie 26
Coffield 22, Battle 23, Webster 28
Billings 26, Ross 29, 2019 1st rounder 21
Marshall 26, Steele 26, Bytel 22
Kent 28, King 21, Gresham 24
Lonie 25, Bruce 30, Membrey 28
Clark 23, Acres 26, Parker 26, Long 24

Depth: Marsh 26, White 25, Paton 23, Newnes 29, Sinclair 27, Dunstan 27, Mayo 22

I'm not convinced that Paton will be just depth. Not by a long shot.

 

[saint_]

3 years time, Bytel and 2019's 1st rounders are shoo-ins to be the A-graders.......then I think the following lineup could be a top 4 team.....we'd kill for this age profile now....

Mckenzie 26yrs, Carlisle 30, Wilkie 26
Coffield 22, Battle 23, Webster 28
Billings 26, Ross 29, 2019 1st rounder 21
Marshall 26, Steele 26, Bytel 22
Kent 28, King 21, Gresham 24
Lonie 25, Bruce 30, Membrey 28
Clark 23, Acres 26, Parker 26, Long 24

Depth: Marsh 26, White 25, Paton 23, Newnes 29, Sinclair 27, Dunstan 27, Mayo 22

What makes you suggest that Bytel will be A-grade when Clark and Coffield are struggling two years in?

 

[majortinkle]

What makes you suggest that Bytel will be A-grade when Clark and Coffield are struggling two years in?

I'm not necessarily - it kind of flows from/proves out my earlier post that said we need him and this years rounders to be A-grade mids to be in a premiership window in 3 years. Somehow naming where the 2 a-graders could come from seems more positive than leaving them anonymous

I am hopeful on Bytel though....