Analysis Where are we at?

[Ricmel]

There are quite a few ifs in all of this. I think if you can confidently find around 12 players at B grade plus to form the core of the 2021 team then the club is on the right path to challenge with 2 years to fill in the frame. I think we are not far off this - particularly if Roberton comes back and one of Coffield or Clark comes good. Gotta find something at this years draft.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

There are quite a few ifs in all of this. I think if you can confidently find around 12 players at B grade plus to form the core of the 2021 team then the club is on the right path to challenge with 2 years to fill in the frame. I think we are not far off this - particularly if Roberton comes back and one of Coffield or Clark comes good. Gotta find something at this years draft.

Where would you expect a B grade team to finish on the ladder?

 

[St Kilda Death]

I reckon we are a decent side right now with our best 18 on the park.
We just won this weekend missing our 3 best mids (Steven, Steele, hannebery)
Missing Carlisle, Webster, Geary, Lonie.
That's 7 of our starting 18.
King was showing signs.
If robbo gets back, that's 9 players into our best side from now until round 1 next year! Over half.
Then there's another preseason for Clark to work on his dad bod and coffield to decide he wants to play.

I won't argue we could use another good mid, but couldn't every club?
I also think we need another bigger body up forward.
Both could come from within the club.

Nobody thought the tigers had a premiership squad at the start of 2017.

 

[Premium]

Having a look at our scoring and it looks like it's a common problem with all teams

We average 10 goals a game , however 12 teams out of the 18 score 11 or less
so looking at this if we can improve our average from 10 to 12 we could be playing finals

Magpies = 13.4
Power = 12.4
Crows = 11.8
Dogs = 11.7
Gaints = 13.9
Dockers = 11.3
Roos = 11.9
Bombers = 11.2
Cats = 14.9
Swans = 11.2
Hawks = 11.3
Demons = 9.8
Saints = 10.5
Tigers = 11.2
Lions = 12.4
Eagles = 12.0
Blues = 10.2
Suns = 8.8

 

[majortinkle]

I reckon we are a decent side right now with our best 18 on the park.
We just won this weekend missing our 3 best mids (Steven, Steele, hannebery)
Missing Carlisle, Webster, Geary, Lonie.
That's 7 of our starting 18.
King was showing signs.
If robbo gets back, that's 9 players into our best side from now until round 1 next year! Over half.
Then there's another preseason for Clark to work on his dad bod and coffield to decide he wants to play.

I won't argue we could use another good mid, but couldn't every club?
I also think we need another bigger body up forward.
Both could come from within the club.

Nobody thought the tigers had a premiership squad at the start of 2017.

You and I differ in what we consider a half, but otherwise you make a great point.

Don’t understand how we’re not nearer the top of the injury list caper

 

[St Kilda Death]

You and I differ in what we consider a half, but otherwise you make a great point.

Don’t understand how we’re not nearer the top of the injury list caper

Lol yeah I think I meant "Nearly". Must have got "over" excited.

 

[DarkSaint]

Watching the Zebras on Sunday - seeing King have a scare and looking at the "seconds", I wondered where we are in the premiership window. This has been a difficult year with injuries and what nots to key players. So, if we wiped the slate clean and imagine us starting in 2020 with no injuries, the team looks something like,

Wilkie Battle Geary
Webster Carlisle Roberton
Billings Ross Newnes
King Bruce Parker
Gresham Membrey Sinclair

Marshall Hannebury Steven Steele

Acres ????????

Is this a team that can challenge for top 4? I still feel we are 1 A grade and 1 B+ grade mid away from it. This to me is a team that should challenge for 6th - 10th type positions. And there is not a lot of depth to back this team up. What do you think?

(I know there will be quibbles about who is in and out of this team but the core is there and I don't see a player on the list that changes my opinion.)

Looking at that side there would be a couple of changes that i would make to it.

1. Lonie would be in my starting 22 as he is the only natural small forward that he have.
2. Newnes/Parker/Sinclair spots are in doubt depending on positions and the number of talls we play.

My ideal side would be

Wilkie Battle Geary
Webster Carlisle Roberton
Billings Ross Acres
Kent Bruce Gresham
Lonie King Membrey
Marshall Steven Steele

Hanners, Parker, Sinclair/Newnes (we need a winger), McKenzie/Hind (we need a half back)

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Blake :: Wilkie/Marsh+
Dawson :: Carlisle/Joyce
Baker :: Geary /McKenzie+/White
Goddard :: Webster+/Paton++
Fisher :: Battle++
Gilbert :: Marsh
Ray :: Billings/Newnes/Phillips++
Hayes :: Hannebery/Bytel/Other ++
DalSanto :: Ross/Clark ++
McQualter :: Kent /Long+
Koschitzski :: Membrey /Mayo
Jones :: Steele
Milne :: Parker+
Riewoldt :: King ++
Gram :Savage
King: Marshall +
Montagna:Gresham +/Sinclair/Hind
Schneider:Lonie+
Ball : Dunstan/Steven?
Clarke : Coffield++
Dempster: Acres+
Gardiner:Bruce

Interesting that the 2009 grand final had 9 players who would normally be described as backs.
They win by position 11 to 7, but we have at least 10 positions where i think we should improve just by normal player development.
Not sure where we are going with Steven, i'd really like us to get an upgrade on Dunstan and with Hannebery only a short term solution at his age, and Bytel unknown, we need one there as well.

Our depth still stuns me, there aren't too many on the cutting list come end of year.
Armitage. Its time.
Brown. Still in great form, and other clubs are crazy if they don't look at him.
Austin. Good depth, but do we need it with Joyce,Marsh, Wilkie. Roberton??? ( 50:50?)
Rice. May be close to AFL standard, but he's probably not going to get a chance. ( poor kid should have gone to Carlton ).

Then : Longer leaves us vulnerable for ruck depth if we don't keep him.
No-one else i'd be happy to let go for zilch right now.

Not sure what happens with the Rookies who came in for Bytel, Roberton , and McCartin. What is the minimum time we need to keep them? (ie Rowe ).
If we keep either or both of Roberton or McCartin we have too many on the list.
Rookies we have Pierce. ( Let him go i think ).
Joyce : Probably needs to be elevated or traded/de-listed.
Wilke : Keep at all costs elevate.
Langlands : Needs to play for his career NOW.
Mayo: keep.
Alabakis: Keep

 

[Ricmel]

Having a look at our scoring and it looks like it's a common problem with all teams

We average 10 goals a game , however 12 teams out of the 18 score 11 or less
so looking at this if we can improve our average from 10 to 12 we could be playing finals

And that to mer is an A grade mid. Danger, Bont, Kelly, Gaff, Treloar etc are all worth around 2 goals a game either off their own boot or creating for another. You could argue that Steven is similar - and on his good days he is. But put another A grade mid in the team and I reckon that average goes from 10.5 to 12 and that puts us right in the mix on that measure.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

We're in serious danger of becoming a side like North Melbourne of most of the 2000s. We lack stars but have plenty of solid role players. Billings, Gresham, Marshall and Steele have all shown that they should be B+ players but we don't have anyone that projects to be a superstar. We all hope King will be but tall forwards taken early in the draft have pretty poor success rates, and when you introduce a bad knee injury in the juniors it's even more iffy.

We don't have the Riewoldt, Hayes, Goddard, Dal Santo, Milne, Montagna, Fisher types that made us successful in the first decade of the 2000s, nor do we have senior leaders like Harvey, Burke, Lowe, Thompson, Hamill etc to guide them. I don't really see us landing those types any time soon either. I'd say our best chance at success will be if we can keep the Billings/Gresham/Marshall/Steele/King/Battle/Clark core until they reach their prime and land a few big name free agents to add cream to that crop. Roberton and Steven's issues have put a line through our chances of success in this era.

To sum up...I think we're going to be a middling side for the foreseeable future. We have no competitive advantage on the competition and a series of bad decisions along with some bad luck will mean that we sit in the 6th-16th range for the next half decade.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

Our depth still stuns me, there aren't too many on the cutting list come end of year.
Armitage. Its time.
Brown. Still in great form, and other clubs are crazy if they don't look at him.
Austin. Good depth, but do we need it with Joyce,Marsh, Wilkie. Roberton??? ( 50:50?)
Rice. May be close to AFL standard, but he's probably not going to get a chance. ( poor kid should have gone to Carlton ).

Then : Longer leaves us vulnerable for ruck depth if we don't keep him.
No-one else i'd be happy to let go for zilch right now.

Not sure what happens with the Rookies who came in for Bytel, Roberton , and McCartin. What is the minimum time we need to keep them? (ie Rowe ).
If we keep either or both of Roberton or McCartin we have too many on the list.
Rookies we have Pierce. ( Let him go i think ).
Joyce : Probably needs to be elevated or traded/de-listed.
Wilke : Keep at all costs elevate.
Langlands : Needs to play for his career NOW.
Mayo: keep.
Alabakis: Keep

Disregarding contracts, my cuts would be: (*= contracted and I know they won't be delisted)

Armitage
Brown
Kent*
Longer
McCartin*
Newnes
Pierce
Rice
Rowe
Young*

And unfortunately we'll probably lose Steven and Roberton.

I'd plan for this to be our 2020 lineup (from the current squad)

B: Marsh, Carlisle, Geary
HB: Webster, Wilkie, Coffield
C: Hannebery, Steele, Acres
HF: Parker, Battle, Billings
F: Lonie, Bruce, Membrey

Foll: Marshall, Gresham, Ross
Int: Clark, Hind, McKenzie, Sinclair

It wouldn't be a great team but it would be competitive and could be building towards the future.

 

[plugger66]

Disregarding contracts, my cuts would be: (*= contracted and I know they won't be delisted)

Armitage
Brown
Kent*
Longer
McCartin*
Newnes
Pierce
Rice
Rowe
Young*

And unfortunately we'll probably lose Steven and Roberton.

I'd plan for this to be our 2020 lineup (from the current squad)

B: Marsh, Carlisle, Geary
HB: Webster, Wilkie, Coffield
C: Hannebery, Steele, Acres
HF: Parker, Battle, Billings
F: Lonie, Bruce, Membrey

Foll: Marshall, Gresham, Ross
Int: Clark, Hind, McKenzie, Sinclair

It wouldn't be a great team but it would be competitive and could be building towards the future.

Why would you even want Kent delisted anyway and then include hind and marsh in your best side. Either has done nothing compared to Kent.

 

[soups1982]

We need Bytel and this years 1st rounder to be a-grade mids and then we're in the window.....that makes us at least 3 years away

Unless we get some free agent or trade magic which I think is unlikely at the level needed.

There is zero evidence to suggest St Kilda will be able to develop Bytel and a mid drafted later in the year.

In the original posters team he isn't even referencing Clark or Coffield who were picks 7&8 two years ago.

 

[majortinkle]

There is zero evidence to suggest St Kilda will be able to develop Bytel and a mid drafted later in the year.

In the original posters team he isn't even referencing Clark or Coffield who were picks 7&8 two years ago.

They were talking about now whereas I've pushed us out 3 years.

If you're saying that it is impossible for us to ever develop an a-grade mid then we may as well give up and go home.

Are we the greatest at development - no probably not, but surely it's going too far to say it's not possible

 

[SaintsSeptember]

We're in serious danger of becoming a side like North Melbourne of most of the 2000s. We lack stars but have plenty of solid role players. Billings, Gresham, Marshall and Steele have all shown that they should be B+ players but we don't have anyone that projects to be a superstar. We all hope King will be but tall forwards taken early in the draft have pretty poor success rates, and when you introduce a bad knee injury in the juniors it's even more iffy.

We don't have the Riewoldt, Hayes, Goddard, Dal Santo, Milne, Montagna, Fisher types that made us successful in the first decade of the 2000s, nor do we have senior leaders like Harvey, Burke, Lowe, Thompson, Hamill etc to guide them. I don't really see us landing those types any time soon either. I'd say our best chance at success will be if we can keep the Billings/Gresham/Marshall/Steele/King/Battle/Clark core until they reach their prime and land a few big name free agents to add cream to that crop. Roberton and Steven's issues have put a line through our chances of success in this era.

To sum up...I think we're going to be a middling side for the foreseeable future. We have no competitive advantage on the competition and a series of bad decisions along with some bad luck will mean that we sit in the 6th-16th range for the next half decade.

I hoped that Riewoldt would be good, but tall forwards taken early in the draft have pretty poor success rates.
The senior leaders, especially those who came for $ , ( example : Hammil ), sucked up the Salary cap , meaning the young guns had to be back ended , which left us in the noughty's with nothing .

Fisher wasn't even playing AFL footy at Battle's age.
Montagna was not as good as Clark at that age.

We had rubbish depth with that team. Everyone talked about the few elites in the Saints list, and the dropping off of talent in the playing group. That was with everyone fit.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Disregarding contracts, my cuts would be: (*= contracted and I know they won't be delisted)

Armitage
Brown
Kent*
Longer
McCartin*
Newnes
Pierce
Rice
Rowe
Young*

And unfortunately we'll probably lose Steven and Roberton.

I'd plan for this to be our 2020 lineup (from the current squad)

B: Marsh, Carlisle, Geary
HB: Webster, Wilkie, Coffield
C: Hannebery, Steele, Acres
HF: Parker, Battle, Billings
F: Lonie, Bruce, Membrey

Foll: Marshall, Gresham, Ross
Int: Clark, Hind, McKenzie, Sinclair

It wouldn't be a great team but it would be competitive and could be building towards the future.

Nearly every club has a Joel Tippet/Adam Pattison type backup ruck. I thought we'd be best to keep Longer for that role.
Unless Alabraxis starts to do something good.
No point de-listing Longer then recruiting someone similar.

Newnes won't be delisted, and delisting him won't make our team stronger. I'd delist Long before Newnes.

 

[hayes]

I think we’ll be stuck where we are until we find some midfielders which is still a huge concern, particularly when our best mid is close to 30. Feel like I’ve been saying this for at least half a decade. We can continue to get excited about guys like King, Battle, Carlisle etc but none of it will matter until we find at least two more A grade mids.

Gresh looks like being the next one to make the jump but you can’t guarantee anything based on some of our other young guys who look like taking the next step but disappoint the following season. Steele and Dunstan the main culprits there.

Anything else we do is basically just shuffling deck chairs. We won’t improve until our midfield does.

 

[sunny3193]

Right now we need a guy who can play like Boak and a guy who can play like Gaff.

Draft a guy called Goak or Baff.

 

[Sully111]

In need of players who have good skills. We need good kicks.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

I hoped that Riewoldt would be good, but tall forwards taken early in the draft have pretty poor success rates.

People were hoping Tim Walsh (Pick 4), Tom Williams (6), Mitch Clark (9), Beau Dowler (6), Scott Gumbleton (2), Mitch Thorp (6), Jarrad Grant (5), Tyrone Vickery (8), Jack Watts (1), John Butcher (8), Jon Patton (1), Tom Boyd (1) and Paddy McCartin (1) would be good as well.

The successful tall forwards taken in the top 10 of the draft over that period are: Roughead (2), Franklin (5), Kennedy (4), Daniher (10* FS)

It's a low percentage play.

 

[borderbarry]

I would include White on the hopeful list.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

People were hoping Tim Walsh (Pick 4), Tom Williams (6), Mitch Clark (9), Beau Dowler (6), Scott Gumbleton (2), Mitch Thorp (6), Jarrad Grant (5), Tyrone Vickery (8), Jack Watts (1), John Butcher (8), Jon Patton (1), Tom Boyd (1) and Paddy McCartin (1) would be good as well.

The successful tall forwards taken in the top 10 of the draft over that period are: Roughead (2), Franklin (5), Kennedy (4), Daniher (10* FS)

It's a low percentage play.

Easier to get a midfielder yes.

Cameron -- Selected as a 17 year old under GWS concession Not an applicable method for StKilda.
Hawkins --- Father son. Would be first round under current system.
Ben Brown --- Available to anyone, i wanted him Rookied the year earlier.
Josh Kennedy --- Pick 4
Lance Franklin --- Pick 5.
Tom Lynch --- Pick 11
Jack Darling --- Pick 26.
Jayden Preuss --- Rookie
Finlayson --- Pick 85
Membrey --- Later pick, Delisted free.
Taylor Walker --- Pick 75

Mixed bag currently leading this seasons goal kicking.
Of that lot, I'd rather a Buddy, Kennedy, Tom Lynch or Cameron type

Players like Finlayson or Darling, i don't see as much chop as a "main" full forward.
Anyway if seeing Ben play against us is any indicator, Max should go OK.

 

[saintspremiers]

We desperately need to draft a Stephenson (minus gambling) or Rozee- a first round pick that is an instant gun.
Maybe King & Jimmy Bytel will be that but in their second years, but in the upcoming draft we have to nail our first pick with a here and NOW player.

I’d still go with another top up player or two - of this year’s top up players - Hind, Wilke, Parker & Young the only one that appears to be a likely dud is Young - and maybe he will come good.

Another two top up players and one gun first round pick AND a gun FA and then things could turn in 2020.

Remember we are meant to win the flag in 2020 per our 2014 plan??!!!!!

Our best dream is to play finals in 2020. Can’t see us making finals this year

 

[The_Steadier]

Disregarding contracts, my cuts would be: (*= contracted and I know they won't be delisted)

Armitage
Brown
Kent*
Longer
McCartin*
Newnes
Pierce
Rice
Rowe
Young*

And unfortunately we'll probably lose Steven and Roberton.

I'd plan for this to be our 2020 lineup (from the current squad)

B: Marsh, Carlisle, Geary
HB: Webster, Wilkie, Coffield
C: Hannebery, Steele, Acres
HF: Parker, Battle, Billings
F: Lonie, Bruce, Membrey

Foll: Marshall, Gresham, Ross
Int: Clark, Hind, McKenzie, Sinclair

It wouldn't be a great team but it would be competitive and could be building towards the future.

Jake isn't a full back.

There is a reason he never plays on full forwards- even the super tall ones like brown, lynch, daniher, cox.
Brown always man's them up- despite jake being on paper the ideal matchup.

He's an attacking defender.

What makes him good is his attacking qualities.
Take the opportunity for him to attack away (by making him play man on man at full back) and he's actually nothing special.

He'd get well beaten regularly playing at full back.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Watching the Zebras on Sunday - seeing King have a scare and looking at the "seconds", I wondered where we are in the premiership window. This has been a difficult year with injuries and what nots to key players. So, if we wiped the slate clean and imagine us starting in 2020 with no injuries, the team looks something like,

Wilkie Battle Geary
Webster Carlisle Roberton
Billings Ross Newnes
King Bruce Parker
Gresham Membrey Sinclair

Marshall Hannebury Steven Steele

Acres ????????

Is this a team that can challenge for top 4? I still feel we are 1 A grade and 1 B+ grade mid away from it. This to me is a team that should challenge for 6th - 10th type positions. And there is not a lot of depth to back this team up. What do you think?

(I know there will be quibbles about who is in and out of this team but the core is there and I don't see a player on the list that changes my opinion.)

"Is this a team that can challenge for top 4?"

The answer to that is clearly yes.

The evenness of the competition over the past 3 years indicate that nearly every team, given a reasonable run with injury and the subsequent improvement in confidence that comes from actually winning, are capable of of being Top 4.

We've just passed the halfway mark of the season and it always enlightening to go back and see what the expert predictions were at the start of the season.

The highest anyone had Geelong was 6th and no one predicted Melbourne would finish lower than 5th. Injury and confidence.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-03-13/crystal-ball-aflcomaus-2019-season-predictions