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Where are we going to finish?

Discussion in 'Richmond' started by MR, Jul 29, 2017.

Put it out there
?

Where will we finish?

This poll will close on Sep 2, 2017 at 11:06 PM.
  1. 1st

    9 vote(s)
    5.0%
  2. 2nd

    27 vote(s)
    15.1%
  3. 3rd

    48 vote(s)
    26.8%
  4. 4th

    47 vote(s)
    26.3%
  5. 5th

    29 vote(s)
    16.2%
  6. 6th

    7 vote(s)
    3.9%
  7. 7th

    5 vote(s)
    2.8%
  8. 8th

    1 vote(s)
    0.6%
  9. Out of the 8

    6 vote(s)
    3.4%
  1. Gosha

    Gosha Norm Smith Medallist

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Chelsea FC
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    6,981
    Did a ladder predictor. We'll finish third. GWS away first up then Sydney at the G. Straight sets is a real possibility.
     
    richard parker likes this.

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  2. TigermanM2

    TigermanM2 Premiership Player

    Richmond
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    Mar 13
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    3,294
    I would back us to take Sydney at the G. I know we lost last time we played but we normally beat them at the G and last game round 13 was after our bye and we played poorly for 3 quarters and only went down by 9.
     
  3. Rezza Tiger

    Rezza Tiger All Australian

    Richmond
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    Collingwood
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    Jun 15
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    815
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    Reservoir
    I could have told you that for 20 bucks.
     
    ThaiTiger likes this.
  4. RobsJourney

    RobsJourney Club Legend

    Richmond
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    Joined:
    Oct 10
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    2,150
    Location:
    Melbourne
    We still need to win one more game to be an absolute guarantee for the top 8.

    If we somehow lost all 3 remaining games, there will be a few teams on 13 wins that, as a result, would probably also be on better % than us, and we could end up 9th. Obviously being realistic here, but I don't think it'll come to that.

    I think we'll beat Geelong this weekend though, might even put them to the sword. If we for some reason don't, we'll beat Fremantle who are going to be easing off now that finals are out of the picture, and I think St. Kilda will be out of the race in the last round and, aside from it being Nick Riewoldt's last game, we 'll beat them at the G.
     
  5. parmy2balmey

    parmy2balmey Club Legend

    Richmond
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    Sep 16
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    1,244
    Location:
    under the bain marie
    there is motivation for all 3 games, havent beaten cats in an eternity, owe freo for the after the siren shit sausage, and owe the saints for dp'ing us

    finals should be well off the mind map for this group atm
     
  6. tora tora tora

    tora tora tora Club Legend

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Abers
    Joined:
    Jul 08
    Posts:
    2,783
    Location:
    fnc
    Straights sets win? or loss?
     
  7. tora tora tora

    tora tora tora Club Legend

    Richmond
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    Abers
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    Jul 08
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    2,783
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    fnc
    Cotch & the boys have a bit of a steely resolve. Like they've got unfinished business. As you say: vs cats, dockers & saints there are definite reasons for really wanting to win.
    If they can keep that mindset, the H&A results should go our way. THEN our ladder position might give us a MCG final.
     
  8. prodigy1311

    prodigy1311 All Australian

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Man Utd
    Joined:
    May 13
    Posts:
    897
    most likely 2nd or 3rd.
    Either way we play GWS first up.
    win - play geelong at the G in prelim = GF guarantee
    Lose - play Sydney at G in a semi = Adelaide in Adelaide in a prelim. = No GF..:(
     
  9. Cotchy9

    Cotchy9 Debutant

    Richmond
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    Sep 13
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    130
    If we finish 4th and lose to Crows, does that mean we get the Swans in a semi? Yuck
     
  10. Tiger_4_Life

    Tiger_4_Life Premiership Player

    Richmond
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    Apr 11
    Posts:
    3,516
    Beat gws up there
     
  11. Tiger Toffee

    Tiger Toffee Norm Smith Medallist

    Richmond
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    Everton
    Joined:
    May 14
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    7,530
    Location:
    Punt Rd to Goodison Park
    My guess and more likely is it will be Port Adelaide at the MCG.
     

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  12. Schlurp

    Schlurp Team Captain

    Richmond
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    Joined:
    Aug 09
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    483
    Location:
    Canberra
    Exactly. Our optimal position was always to finish either second or third, thereby eliminating the possibility of playing Adelaide first up in Adelaide. That's not going to happen. So what happens if we finish fourth. We can reasonably expect to lose to Adelaide and then meet the winner of the 1st elimination final played between teams 5 and 8. At the moment, and that's the way I'm extrapolating this theme out, these are Swans and Bulldogs. If the Swans get up, almost a certainty, we could be looking at another straight sets exit.

    We also don't want to finish 5th if the Swans finish 4th. While we could reasonably expect to beat the Doggies, we'd be looking at a game between either Adelaide or Swans the following week. Not a pleasant thought. So our best bet is actually to finish 6th or 7th. As things stand, we would play the Eagles in Melbourne in week 1 and, if we win, play the loser of the Geelong or GWS game in week 2. However, to do that, we would have to lose our next 2 games and have either Port, WCE or the Doggies win all of their last two games. Which is simply dopey.

    While I can see the Swans winning their next two games, I can't see Geelong losing both of theirs, which would have to happen for the Swans to replace them in 3rd place. So it seems that we have had a season where we have been too successful not to miss a place in the finals but not successful enough to avoid playing arguably the two strongest teams in the competition at the pointy end of the year.

    Whatever, I'm proud of the players and the coaching staff and enjoy the ride into our fourth finals series in five years.
     
    TassieTiger1984 likes this.
  13. Tiger Toffee

    Tiger Toffee Norm Smith Medallist

    Richmond
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    Everton
    Joined:
    May 14
    Posts:
    7,530
    Location:
    Punt Rd to Goodison Park
    You do know we can finish 2nd or 3rd still don't you.
     
  14. prodigy

    prodigy Premium Gold

    Richmond
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    Liverpool
    Joined:
    Jun 13
    Posts:
    8,832
    I hate it how people are already writing us off against Adelaide. Haven't you watched how unpredictable this year has been?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Tiger Toffee and Jimmy Jess like this.
  15. Schlurp

    Schlurp Team Captain

    Richmond
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    Joined:
    Aug 09
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    483
    Location:
    Canberra
    So the points at the moment with 2 rounds to go are:
    Crows - 62
    Giants - 56
    Cats 54
    Tiges - 52
    Swans - 48

    Crows to play Swans and Eagles. If they win both, they go to 70 points. If they lose one, they finish on 66 points.
    Giants to play Eagles and Cats (at Skilled). If they win both, they go to 64. If they lose one (on the cards at Skilled) they finish on 60 points.
    Cats to play Pies and GWS. If they win both, they go to 62 points. If they lose one, and it would have to be against GWS, they finish on 58.
    Tiges to play Dockers and Saints. Assuming two wins, we finish on 60 points.
    Swans to play Crows and Carlton. If they win both, they go to 56 points. If they lose one, they finish on 52.

    Giants have a slightly better percentage than us but if we thrash the Dockers, we could end up ahead of them.

    On form, Crows should end up in first place with at least 66 points. We could be battling GWS for second or third place if we end up on 60 points and a higher percentage. The big ask is for the Giants to beat the Cats at Skilled. I'd be happy if they did but I wouldn't be placing my life on that outcome.

    So I understand that 2nd or 3rd are still mathematically possible outcomes. It will be determined by the Cats v Giants game and the percentages we can generate from our last two matches. I suppose the odds are long but we can always look to Leicester City for a precedent.
     
    Jimmy Jess likes this.
  16. This Is Anfield

    This Is Anfield Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Liverpool, England, Furies
    Joined:
    Feb 14
    Posts:
    20,004
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Third after GWS beat Geelong.
    Then we win our first of 6 flags in a row!
     
    Jimmy Jess likes this.
  17. Schlurp

    Schlurp Team Captain

    Richmond
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    Aug 09
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    483
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    Canberra
    That's my best case scenario too.
     
    This Is Anfield likes this.
  18. tugga

    tugga Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
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    Tottenham Hotspur
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    May 06
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    26,979
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    Yid army
    Lose one of the next two and we'll likely finish 5th.
     
  19. tigernsw

    tigernsw All Australian

    Richmond
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    Jun 17
    Posts:
    660
    If Port beat Pies today then next week we need:

    Crows to beat Swans
    Dogs to beat Port
    Tigers to beat Dockers

    Then Top 4 is locked in 100% regardless of what happens in round 23.
    Worry about who we play after we get there. Wouldn't be bothered going in as underdogs when it's not sudden death.
     
  20. Tiges1229

    Tiges1229 Norm Smith Medallist

    Richmond
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    Joined:
    Sep 14
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    8,774
    Stop drinking :)
     
    Schlurp likes this.
  21. Schlurp

    Schlurp Team Captain

    Richmond
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    Aug 09
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    483
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    Canberra
    I think at this point it's reasonable to say that if asked whether we would even be having this conversation 12 months ago I would have said you were deranged. The improvement in our performances this year has been astonishing. I'm enjoying the journey and hoping we continue to destroy other people's perceptions of who we are and what we are capable of. Game on - let's smash them.
     
    tugga likes this.
  22. Tiger Toffee

    Tiger Toffee Norm Smith Medallist

    Richmond
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    Everton
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    May 14
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    7,530
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    Punt Rd to Goodison Park
    Not unless crows beat swans and dogs beat power, then one out of two will see us still top 4.
     
    TigerImposter likes this.
  23. mannym

    mannym Draftee

    Richmond
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    Aug 17
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    If Giants lose this week to Eagles(you never know)
    and lose to Geelong in final week.....

    It's possible that Geelong can finish 2nd
    and Tiges can finish 3rd

    (assuming geelong and tiges win their last 2 games)

    If this happens, we will meet cats at the G in finals.
     
    TigerImposter likes this.
  24. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Straya
    Joined:
    Sep 15
    Posts:
    3,190
    Location:
    Centre half bench
    Collingwood is to Geelong as Geelong is to Richmond. I reckon it's better than a 50% chance of the cats dropping at least one of the next two.
     
  25. fleabitten

    fleabitten Premiership Player

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Portland Trailblazers
    Joined:
    Feb 12
    Posts:
    3,896
    Harnessing the mighty powers of the ladder predictor...

    If we win both, Geelong (who play Collingwood at the G and GWS at SS) has to do the same to finish above us. GWS can afford to drop one game (home game v eagles next week being their other game). I think it's likely that both teams win next week and then the Cats win Rd23, so even two wins leaves us in 4th and traveling to Adelaide.

    If we win one, only Sydney and Port can steal our top four spot, with both needing to win twice. Sydney's other game is against Carlton, so if they can topple the Crows in Adelaide, they'd likely overtake us if we only win one more. Port play the Dogs in Melbourne next week, but if they win that, they have the Suns at home. I think it's quite possible one of Sydney and Port can pull off the road win next week and both should win their last match. I think if we only win one, we're likely to finish 5th.

    If we lose both, we're back with a mess of teams and the possibilities get more complicated. Worst case scenario is 8th, best is clinging on to 4th (highly unlikely). Not sure it matters where we finish if we lose the next two though, as we'd be just making up the numbers.
     
    TigerImposter likes this.