Prediction Where do with finish in 2025?

[JT_the_Man]

Bottom 4 I would think would be a low chance, but it wouldn't be a complete shock. I have us 9th-13th.

With being at least as good as last year, we have lost three genuine best 22 players. As well as Hind (15 games). I agree with all three/four moves, but they should technically make us a worse team.

Don’t really think losing Stringer, Heppell and Kelly makes us worse. Forward pressure is instantly improved without Stringer, Prior looks a good Kelly replacement and Shiel is taking over the past his best mid on a back flank role.

Tbh as bad as it sounds I’d argue those departures improve us.

 

[bombre-boy]

Keep making horrendous turnovers and we finish 11-13
Make 2 less turnovers per game and we are close to the 8.

 

[bombreys]

Its a wonder isn't it. I think tons of pundits are just tuned to dismiss Essendon ever being a top 8 team.

We have a hard draw, and a very young list. Yet our team seems stronger now than it's even been.
Wouldn't be surprised now if we finish up 7-8th.

I've sooked and whinged it up as much as anyone in the past, but I love what we've done across the offseason - but I think our team is very overrated by our own fans. Maybe overrated isn't the right term, but people are going too early. We shouldn't be very good in 2025. I think the moves we've made are to ensure we're good/improving by 2027/2028/onwards.

I think going in expecting top 8 will lead to disappointment.

 

[bombreys]

Don’t really think losing Stringer, Heppell and Kelly makes us worse. Forward pressure is instantly improved without Stringer, Prior looks a good Kelly replacement and Shiel is taking over the past his best mid on a back flank role.

Tbh as bad as it sounds I’d argue those departures improve us.

See I tend to agree, I just seem to be seeing more of that opinion than I thought I would. Most people on this forum were adamant last year that Kelly and Heppell were absolutely in our best side and that was why they were being selected.

I think the pressure improves without Stringer, as long as it's Kako coming in (as in a straight swap). I rated Stringer's pressure a touch more than most, I think - he provided 10x pressure than Wright ever will and a lot more than Langford. I do agree with you that if it's Draper FF, Caddy CHF and Langers as the third tall - with three smalls around them, the pressure almost by default improves, before even taking into account how much better Kako's pressure looks than anyone else currently in the side.

 

[Chief Hopper]

See I tend to agree, I just seem to be seeing more of that opinion than I thought I would. Most people on this forum were adamant last year that Kelly and Heppell were absolutely in our best side and that was why they were being selected.

I think the pressure improves without Stringer, as long as it's Kako coming in (as in a straight swap). I rated Stringer's pressure a touch more than most, I think - he provided 10x pressure than Wright ever will and a lot more than Langford. I do agree with you that if it's Draper FF, Caddy CHF and Langers as the third tall - with three smalls around them, the pressure almost by default improves, before even taking into account how much better Kako's pressure looks than anyone else currently in the side.

I'd go further and say Heppel played 1 season too long, and Wright just can't do it anymore (marking). It was like playing with 2 less on our team at times last year.
That and most of our best players were playing injured in 2024 means this year I think is a little different.

 

[Godzke]

I'd say 7-9th at the midseason bye and finishing 10-12th.

 

[windyhill]

It's so even, the afl would be rapt at this. Us ? Stuck in the middle.

 

[Dave]

It's so even, the afl would be rapt at this. Us ? Stuck in the middle.

Bugger that, Flagdons.

 

[Pweter]

Its a wonder isn't it. I think tons of pundits are just tuned to dismiss Essendon ever being a top 8 team.

We have a hard draw, and a very young list. Yet our team seems stronger now than it's even been.
Wouldn't be surprised now if we finish up 7-8th.

 

[Chief Hopper]

Haha I meant, ever been in a while smartarse.

 

[Call Me Cake]

We'll have one more bye than every other side during the season proper bar Gold Coast so that should help with a fade out. The true disadvantage is if we make finals.

However I expect us to take a step back to take two steps forward next year.

 

[Donflicted]

Don’t really think losing Stringer, Heppell and Kelly makes us worse. Forward pressure is instantly improved without Stringer, Prior looks a good Kelly replacement and Shiel is taking over the past his best mid on a back flank role.

Tbh as bad as it sounds I’d argue those departures improve us.

Very much agree

 

[justlookingaround]

Was quite impressed with with what I saw in our preseason games, see us finishing anywhere from 7th to 14th.
The comp is very even but very rarely at the end of the year do you think any teams that missed finals deserved to be there. Still look like we can't defend the whole ground so all of our games we're not getting thrashed in will be close.
I'm gonna go safe option of another 11th placed finish around 11 wins. A little part of me thinks we'll be up the top of the ladder around the halfway mark of the season again.

 

[faible]

Was quite impressed with with what I saw in our preseason games, see us finishing anywhere from 7th to 14th.
The comp is very even but very rarely at the end of the year do you think any teams that missed finals deserved to be there. Still look like we can't defend the whole ground so all of our games we're not getting thrashed in will be close.
I'm gonna go safe option of another 11th placed finish around 11 wins. A little part of me thinks we'll be up the top of the ladder around the halfway mark of the season again.

Percentage is usually a good guide IMO, last year you had a pretty big drop from Freo on 12 wins @ 111% to us on 11 wins @ 93%.

The draw meant our ladder position was a bit artificially high, on Wins and percentage we should have been 14th instead of 11th.

I think we're still in that same range, but could see the teams that finished below us (Saints, Sun, Demons) go past us even if we don't necessary get 'worse'.

If we see some consolidation of younger blokes doing more of the heavy lifting instead of guys like Merrett, and limit the number of 5+ goal losses, I'd say that's a promising springboard for 2026 when we start seeing that younger draft cohort entering their prime years

 

[coastalpipeline]

I think we get our shit together & other teams don't we make the 4.
We win our 1st final and go from there.

 

[naraku]

I think we finish 7th.

I probably don't have a lot of logic, rhyme or reason for this but I think we get a lot of improvement from Hobbs, Tsatas, Caddy etc

Also, I think guys like Lual and Nguyen will surprise- even if they don't play seniors I think they'll push the guys in front of them.

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

Not really being a glass half full person, I think we probably struggle to improve our ladder position over last year. We were only a half game better than 14th last year and our percentage ranked 15th, and was 5% lower than 14th so not really close.
I do accept the concensus view that we look to be an improved, better balanced team , but am not sure if that is enough. I see only 2 teams which finished above us which we might overtake. Collingwood looked vulnerable based on yesterdays showing, and though the Bulldogs list is still pretty good, it doesn't seem like they're a happy ship and Bont and L Jones missing a chunk of early games makes it hard for them. And it's possible that 3 of the teams which finished below us, Melbourne , Adelaide and Gold Coast may improve more. Our draw this year is pretty unfriendly too.
I think our range is 9th to 15th with the lower end being more likely. Hawks game is going to show us how far off the pointy end of the comp we are, but the following week against the Crows will be a real indicator of where we likely finish. We really need to get a result playing them at home while we're pretty close to full strength if we want to be taken at all seriously

 

[fairbump_playon]

Will all the naysayers change their tune after we belt Hawthorn on Friday night?

I’m far more excited about this squad than I have been for a long time. Unfortunately patience is required

Key pieces (Reid, Caddy, Kako etc) need another 50 games before we are a serious contender

Don’t bet but we are good value outsiders this Friday

I just don’t think we will be able to maintain the highs across the year

11th.. but a much better 11th

 

[Happyskeret]

Will all the naysayers change their tune after we belt Hawthorn on Friday night?

I’m far more excited about this squad than I have been for a long time. Unfortunately patience is required

Key pieces (Reid, Caddy, Kako etc) need another 50 games before we are a serious contender

Don’t bet but we are good value outsiders this Friday

I just don’t think we will be able to maintain the highs across the year

11th.. but a much better 11th

Personally I will not truly believe even if we are 5th at the 2 thirds of the season mark! I think with our best team in we will challenge a lot of the other teams but I just don’t believe that will be the case. I got sucked in last year and then when the cats defeated us we dropped our bundle and well the rest is history.

I think we are a much better balanced side this year and I like the direction we are heading but it’s going to require some 1st or 2nd years players to play at a high level over 23 games or so imo to play finals. It’s possible but I just don’t see it.

 

[bombreys]

Percentage is usually a good guide IMO, last year you had a pretty big drop from Freo on 12 wins @ 111% to us on 11 wins @ 93%.

The draw meant our ladder position was a bit artificially high, on Wins and percentage we should have been 14th instead of 11th.

I think we're still in that same range, but could see the teams that finished below us (Saints, Sun, Demons) go past us even if we don't necessary get 'worse'.

If we see some consolidation of younger blokes doing more of the heavy lifting instead of guys like Merrett, and limit the number of 5+ goal losses, I'd say that's a promising springboard for 2026 when we start seeing that younger draft cohort entering their prime years

Agree with almost all of this - though I do think we 'deserved' to finish 11th. I think we earned it. I don't believe too much in the 'predicted' type stats. Though that's just personal opinion.

One thing with the younger guys, there is absolutely that group of 'younger blokes' that should be doing more of the heavy lifting. I suppose they're our older younger guys - Caldwell, Duz, Perkins, etc. I think the real improvement should come in 2027/2028, when the group after that have played a few years/est. 50 games. Just because I think these 'younger younger' guys are probably more talented - or rather have higher potential/ceilings...

Nick Bryan has played 19 AFL games - cbf looking it up, but I'm going to guess he was subbed on or off in 8-10 of those. He's going to need a bit of time to get acclimated to AFL level. You then have Kako (0), Caddy (10), Reid (8) and Tsatas (11), who all look set to be playing pretty large roles in the coming few years. Those five, among others, are where our improvement comes from for mine. When they get to around 50 games in 27/28, I think that's when we start to really improve.

 

[Nifft]

Will all the naysayers change their tune after we belt Hawthorn on Friday night?

We could be on top of the ladder at the halfway mark and a fair amount of people will be waiting to see if we fade again in the later half the season. I wouldn't be surprised if a number of fans continue to be hesitant until the team shows they've broken that hoodoo.

I'm quietly confident that we can be better this year, and I'm excited about some of the younger guys, but there will be that gnawing doubt until we put a consistent season together.

 

[fishardansin]

I'm hoping for
Melbourne 18th
Essendon 17th
St Kilda 16th

 

[TheUnicorn]

My prediction of 4th looking pretty good

 

[brutus76]

Essentank job please