Where do you make your profits/losses?

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
18,762
23,770
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
New York Jets
Racing or sports?
Which sports?
Are you a favourites or underdogs backer?
Like handicaps?
In play? H2H? Multis? Futures? Player performances? Over/under?

Keen to see where people make and lose their money here.

I have only ever been consistently and repeatable profitable on 3 things:
AFL
(Pick your own line multis and always + lines is a big part of it)
NRL (largely due to premiership futures backing multiple teams when their odds drift)
And ironically MLB baseball based on the stats of the starting pitchers.

Where I lose:
Namely everything else because I'm impatient, usually it's because I back favourites in tennis, cricket, NBA, NFL and while my win rate is high, the odds are low so I never stay ahead.

I also dabble in horse racing but it's a mixed bag, one day I'll be up 400 the next weekend give it all back.

Honestly if I had the discipline of patience and staying within my profitable markets I could probably get a 10-15% yearly ROI. But I dont, so I drip lose over the long term because of all the other stuff.

I do wonder if I should switch to a model of backing outsiders that represent a decent chance. At odds of $2-3+ I only need to be right once every two or 3 times to make a profit.
 

NonPhixion

Blades & Shades
Mar 27, 2018
2,171
2,208
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
when I do my study & analysis during the week I make my profits. I give some back when im pissed on a Fri/Sat night and start putting random bets/multis on, that's the Degen in me.
95% of the time I bet player props, personally find it easier to identify a competitive advantage. Mostly overs markets as my main betting principle is to exploit a particular teams weakness. Generally feel most confident in AFL and use x3 Unit sizes for it compared to everything else.
 

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burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
1,290
1,695
AFL Club
Adelaide
Fights. Boxing and MMA is my strongest though the bookies are closing the gap between them and smart punters. Used to be very easy to profit but theyre setting better lines now

Lose on NBA. No matter how much i research and study something like an injury, wide open missed layups or some random shit will screw me.
 

langdon19

All Australian
Dec 2, 2008
851
525
perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Tgs, much easier on the women’s.
Find I run much better on fri and sat nights but unsure if it’s because I get a bit more study time for the one game after work or unders are easier to hit at night.
 

adammania9

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 18, 2013
10,162
20,898
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
University
I clean up on the Brownlow every year except for last year when I abstained from betting for a while, unfortunately with my data and predictions I would have cleaned up probably more money than any other year.

Otherwise, I usually do very well on the races. If I get on a bad run then I take an extensive break because I tend to become obsessed and always find myself thinking about punting and getting that money back, so I see the best course of action is to exclude myself completely and come back in time with a fresh head.

Lose on multis in every sport so I just stay away from them completely. The multiplying profit margins that favour the bookies often make the odds very deceiving and present terrible value. I just have terrible luck in general with the footy. I try to go full analytical mode and make judgements off stats and evidence but it always blows up in my face. I'll have another go in 2020 but if I get off to a bad start, I'll probably just stick to racing and grand slam tennis which I do well in.
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
31,936
23,946
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Last time in Vegas was below minimum bet for craps so found the nearest roulette table to attempt a quick double up. Wheel was already spinning so I just quickly jammed it on red which resulted in this catcall of 'what you doin cracker?' . I looked up and the only people playing that wheel where these blinged out African Americans....and they couldn't have been more gentlemanly.
 

IKnowtheDog

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2016
6,917
5,697
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Seattle Seahawks
Last time in Vegas was below minimum bet for craps so found the nearest roulette table to attempt a quick double up. Wheel was already spinning so I just quickly jammed it on red which resulted in this catcall of 'what you doin cracker?' . I looked up and the only people playing that wheel where these blinged out African Americans....and they couldn't have been more gentlemanly.
At least there weren’t professional anti-communists at the table
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
613
326
AFL Club
Fremantle
Brownlow and Melb Cup most years, AFL and finding gaps in markets (although this is a quick way to make a heap of cash, it gets you banned quickly as well)

Losing is basically everything else
 

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juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
18,762
23,770
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
New York Jets
I clean up on the Brownlow every year except for last year when I abstained from betting for a while, unfortunately with my data and predictions I would have cleaned up probably more money than any other year.

Otherwise, I usually do very well on the races. If I get on a bad run then I take an extensive break because I tend to become obsessed and always find myself thinking about punting and getting that money back, so I see the best course of action is to exclude myself completely and come back in time with a fresh head.

Lose on multis in every sport so I just stay away from them completely. The multiplying profit margins that favour the bookies often make the odds very deceiving and present terrible value. I just have terrible luck in general with the footy. I try to go full analytical mode and make judgements off stats and evidence but it always blows up in my face. I'll have another go in 2020 but if I get off to a bad start, I'll probably just stick to racing and grand slam tennis which I do well in.
Grand Slam men's is one I forgot about and do well in. Women's tennis and even men's 3 set I don't do well in.
 

LukeParkerno1

Premium Platinum
Sep 23, 2005
110,305
41,648
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Sydney Swans
Womens tennis is usually good for me, and at a nice price.

In terms of losses any racing on country tracks, hence why I've banned myself this year from it.
 

eastaugh36

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 9, 2000
11,931
371
Adelaide
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Glenelg, Redbacks, Lakers
Always finish ahead on racing. So I should as I spend a lot of time each week studying it. Steer clear of short priced favourites especially in SA!
NBA is a tough sport to win on however I play a lot of player props and that has been successful for me. One bookie even limiting my bets on these to a $20 payout max.
Have really concentrated on NHL especially over/unders. The majority of my sports betting would be on this. Once you know the right teams and the goalies you're set. I've got a few sources from America that have amazing records so I'll often just tail them.
 

Minidisc MD

Senior List
Nov 29, 2019
277
357
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
the things I have the most fun on, I generally lose the most on:

A-League single game and over-the-round multis, 20-leg 20 cent multis in the English football buffered out by a Hungarian second division game and Bulgarian derby paying $3,009,122... dogs down the pub on a boring Thursday or Sunday evening with your mates suck the cash out you, but watching the coked-up little f***ers is fun.

I'm a low key betsman (used to do 5 bucks a week and a couple of bucks at the pub, but had rotten outcomes so haven't placed one for a month-odd) but the AFL used to be my thing. still is a bit. generally finals where they're a bit too analytical or get carried away with whatever dickhead i nthe media is the biggest loudmouth.

round 1 of the footy is the best. no real form but six month-old ones, and even then, half the teams stopped being competitive in July. it just goes off the hype of trades while they ignore things like new coach effects (for better or worse), conditions. I always do really well with at least one upset or nail a couple of margins.

when it's a cold, quiet Friday night and I'm down the pub with the old man, I love chucking on a sensible multi. I hate them, but the Eagles are great for a multi. clear forward threats, they always win at home. stuff like 3+ goals for Kennedy, 1 for Darling, 1 or more for someone flakier like a Liam Ryan, and a couple of disposal markets in the midfield and then a McGovern and you get odds of like $7 for shit that generally only loses one leg if it doesn't come up. usually pays for a few rounds or a counter meal, and I'm happy with that.
 

Minidisc MD

Senior List
Nov 29, 2019
277
357
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
For instance, ladbrokes might put a total up for something at 18.5, sports at 15.5. You back Over 15.5 and Under 18.5. you want it to hit the middle. Normally happens in cricket (boundaries) and less common events like six nations totals etc.
hmm, this seems one of those 'tricks' that you try about six times and it never comes off.

isn't this essentially just narrowing your potential and you're still playing god, still relying on statistics which – considering how many statistics are in sport now – not all prior statistics correctly predict the resulted statistic.

people in the UK, when they heard my accent, would always ask me at the pub watching football about the A-League and how amazing the corner markets are. I tried bringing it back to Australia but it was never profitable enough and even with small bets, I just wasn't winning that often either.

so let's say we're talking about corners in the Premier League.

the average is something like 10.

let's say Norwich City usually have 12 corners in their game and Brighton have 8.

betting agency rightfully has the lowest odds for 10 corners – let's say $1.05.

Norwich have a new striker over but also have their best left and right back out meaning there'll surely be more Norwich shots on goal, but also more chance for Brighton to ping shots. there are generally more shots off target. meaning this game is likely to have more corners just because of the average shots off target translating to more corners.

even if you go over 11.5 corners but under 13.5, you still basically only have two chances out of 0-20, and even then the bell curve always favours 7-13, but that 7-13 is just way way more common than say 4 corners or 18 corners so it gets more unlikely.

punting is a mug's game unless you know a dodgy jockey but I just never bought into this sort of way of betting. you're going to have to plunk down a lot of money, still get lucky, and most of the time these things only like like 2.50 and not the $6-7 you'd need them to be to have some fun.
 

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