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Analysis Where to from here?

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Just on this, after watching the replay, It's really striking how frequently Kolodjashnij gets brought up (not just by you) as a player who simply must be dropped. He was - can't say this loudly enough - NOWHERE NEAR our worst player Friday night. Nowhere near. Henderson was much worse. Rohan was (of course) much worse. Dahlhaus was much worse. Guthrie to be honest was worse. Miers was worse. Blicavs was worse. Higgins was worse.

He's not a superstar, but he was not in the main two that need to go. Sorry he just wasn't.

I’ve had Kolo in the gun for years and possibly mark him hard. But the point remains he made at least 4 critical errors that resulted in goals the other night. Henderson was absolutely woeful and clearly WOG but at least he’s been better performed over a period of time (albeit his own finals record isn’t flash).

I agree about all the others. Rohan, Dahlhaus were putrid. Guthrie was extremely soft and ineffective. Blicavs I can’t even recall getting much of it at all. So I agree. But you can’t drop them all.

I based it on what I’ve seen over a period of time, who is the most easily replaced, and probably if I’m being completely honest, my own bias. I accept that others would have differing ideas to myself.

As an aside, there was a period I think early last year (?) when Kolo wasn’t available for a month or so due to injury and our backline looked far more mobile and dynamic. That period also comes to mind.
 
Where to from here? Win 3 finals in a row. The hardest would be the prelim. Long odds now but you need a plan.

Problems

1) Slow ball movement, and poor inside 50 delivery giving Cameron and Hawkins no chance.

2) Lack of defensive intensity around the ball

3) Need more goals from our small forwards and mids. Who is 4th on our goal kicking after the big 3? Smith and Close with 13. Not promising.

4) Haynes, Lever, and Alir. What is that? The sequence of interceptors that are key to their teams and must be nullified.

Solutions

1) if an quick option is on in the middle, take it on.

2) More intensity, pressure and tackling across the whole ground.

3) Drop Dahlhaus and play Duncan forward. Also helps with inside 50 delivery.

4) Left field - play Henderson forward as a defensive tagger. His stats don’t matter. His job is negate Haynes, Lever and Alir. Requires us to bring in ZGuthrie as 7 defender. Tuohy replaces O’Connor.
 
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I’ve had Kolo in the gun for years and possibly mark him hard. But the point remains he made at least 4 critical errors that resulted in goals the other night. Henderson was absolutely woeful and clearly WOG but at least he’s been better performed over a period of time (albeit his own finals record isn’t flash).

I agree about all the others. Rohan, Dahlhaus were putrid. Guthrie was extremely soft and ineffective. Blicavs I can’t even recall getting much of it at all. So I agree. But you can’t drop them all.

I based it on what I’ve seen over a period of time, who is the most easily replaced, and probably if I’m being completely honest, my own bias. I accept that others would have differing ideas to myself.

As an aside, there was a period I think early last year (?) when Kolo wasn’t available for a month or so due to injury and our backline looked far more mobile and dynamic. That period also comes to mind.

Fair enough, good response and appreciate the honesty.

I've really ebbed and flowed on Kolodjashnij over the last few years. I liked him at first, and think he's almost got two personalities as a player. When he was played as a small defender (bizarrely for his size) or a winger, absolutely horrific when the heat goes up. As a key defender, I've always thought him far more stable and reliable. Maybe because he's younger and we need all the young guys we can get I'm more generous.

I can think of two goals that came from him, one where he slipped over late in the second quarter, and when he kicked to to Allir Allir. Although, for the second one, Rohan was right there, so I agree that while you probably shouldn't kick it near their best intercept mark, our alleged third tall was perfectly placed to at least compete for it. So again I'm more forgiving of that one. Can't recall the other two but will take your word for it.
 

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Maybe that’s just how lifelong supporters of the club feel at this stage.
I feel you. This reference has done the rounds at various times throughout my life supporting the Cats. I don’t think the term would wash in this day and age but the sentiment behind it is there. I remember my old man (half facetiously) using the term when describing the Cats’ performance to Gary Ayres who happened to be walking past us in the Footy Park car park the night they handed Port Power their first AFL win in 1997. Only as I got older did I understand the subtext.
 
Any cats members willing to send me there barcode so i can get ticket for fri night game in perth? wou;d be greatly appreciated.
 
Where to from here? Win 3 finals in a row. The hardest would be the prelim. Long odds now but you need a plan.

Problems

1) Slow ball movement, and poor inside 50 delivery giving Cameron and Hawkins no chance.

2) Lack of defensive intensity around the ball

3) Need more goals from our small forwards and mids. Who is 4th on our goal kicking after the big 3? Smith and Close with 13. Not promising.

4) Haynes, Lever, and Alir. What is that? The sequence of interceptors that are key to their teams and must be nullified.

Solutions

1) if an quick option is on in the middle, take it on.

2) More intensity, pressure and tackling across the whole ground.

3) Drop Dahlhaus and play Duncan forward. Also helps with inside 50 delivery.

4) Left field - play Henderson forward as a defensive tagger. His stats don’t matter. His job is negate Haynes, Lever and Alir. Requires us to bring in ZGuthrie as 7 defender. Tuohy replaces O’Connor.
Add Dangerfield with most likely a busted hand... a problem, plus his finals record ain't exactly like Dusty.

Do you bring in Ratugolea for Dalhaus, and send Blitz to permanent Back and rebound. Ratugolea can then chop out in the ruck, and the match-up forward would force Haynes to him this weekend.

I'd probably bring Narkle in for Simpson. Close is border-line, but we need as much pace as possible.
 
Add Dangerfield with most likely a busted hand... a problem, plus his finals record ain't exactly like Dusty.

Do you bring in Ratugolea for Dalhaus, and send Blitz to permanent Back and rebound. Ratugolea can then chop out in the ruck, and the match-up forward would force Haynes to him this weekend.

I'd probably bring Narkle in for Simpson. Close is border-line, but we need as much pace as possible.
Buckley's chance of Close being dropped after his good game v PA.

Also doubt that they'll change the Stanley/Blicavs ruck combo, one of the few areas where we were competitive or better for the whole game.
 
We, as a regional city, should be given exclusive access to the Geelong Falcons Football Factory™. It should be our own Academy!!!
I know your post is a bit tongue in cheek but I think this has some merit to it. Big soccer teams often use their youth teams to develop players playing the system they want to play. We might not get access to the best players but if we get decent players who already know the system and have trained from an early age in the way we play, it can make a difference in the long term and can give us a bit of an advantage of other.
 
I reckon Kreuger worthy of a run as the number 2 behind Blitz. SDK still a few kilos off but should be coming in for a few games. Henry I feel needs to play loose or we're missing out on his best attribute which is intercepting and rebounding
Krueger should come in for Kolo. At least he has a crack and doesn’t stand there like he has absolutely no idea what he’s doing.

He plays with aggression. Exactly what we need.
 
I'm laughing that some of you are only now realising Kolo is a liability panic merchant.. Been saying it for YEARS - he is the same as Blicavs and the rest of our backline - can't handle the pressure. Tom Stewart is the only one with cajones to not shit his dacks when things get hot. Our forward line has turned disfunctional - 3/4 of them do nothing, provide no target, don't impact any contests at all. Cameron looks like he should be in a wheelchair - clearly injured (worry is he will be like this the rest of his career). Stanley being a spud as usual, our mids getting beaten in the contest, not working hard enough, strategy bombing it down the line is still not working (surprise surprise). All an opposition club has to do to beat us = increase the pressure - it's that simple. Thompsons cats used to get better under pressure - this team folds like a paper when even the hint is applied to them.
 
I'd like evidence from head office that the goal is a premiership, not 'staying competitive' or 'being a destination club' or 'playing prelim finals';

I don't think that the clubs stance is purely this - I don't think any club would have a mantra of "Not winning premierships is OK".

I also think that clubs that lay out there "5 year plan" and talk about this many members, a premiership bla bla is great either. Sure, it finally clicked for Richmond in their 3rd 5 year plan but ordinarily, it's a stupid way to go about it.

Their mantra is to contend each year. Contend means shooting for a premiership. While also targeting this, they also have a business to run and keep competitve
 

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Interestingly; I had a quick browse around for comments by Brian Cook to find where he says we need to win a premiership (relatively unsuccessfully too except for when we went out in 2018)

Have a look at this article ahead of this season... not sure it quite played out the way it was expected; from my perspective anyway:


Brian Cook in the fox sports article said:
“The real challenge is how do we provide opportunities for our young players next year, OK? That’ll need a different mentality from some of the senior players who expect to play 22 games. Maybe they won’t, maybe they’ll play 15. I think we’ll expect more flexibility around the expectations of senior players, and how we can bring the young kids through.”
 
I know your post is a bit tongue in cheek but I think this has some merit to it. Big soccer teams often use their youth teams to develop players playing the system they want to play. We might not get access to the best players but if we get decent players who already know the system and have trained from an early age in the way we play, it can make a difference in the long term and can give us a bit of an advantage of other.
Sadly people already think we have an ‘advantage’ with our ground so imagine the squealing if that happened.
 
I stand corrected then.

nonethless we were never favourites in any season. Even in 92 we were always up against the WA state team.

the 94 series was an incredible one of rising up against adversity three weeks in a row with all our injuries. 95 we smashed it in the earlier finals. 92 had some big finals wins as well. We werent just losing all our finals
Ah yes ,the good old days when we only choked in GFs ;)
 
People here seem to be overcomplicating it all. I am an eternal optimist, but it's plain as day that our list is simply too old. To win a flag you need continuity and stability in your 22.

Out of our 11 players over 30, only one (Hawkins) played a full season this year: Hawkins (23 games), Higgins (16), Selwood (22), Smith (22), Dangerfield (14), Henderson (19), Tuohy (19), Blicavs (22), Duncan (11), Rohan (19), Stanley (17).

You can't limp into finals, getting blokes back like Duncan who hasn't played in months, and Tuohy, etc. and expect to make it to the big dance.
 
People here seem to be overcomplicating it all. I am an eternal optimist, but it's plain as day that our list is simply too old. To win a flag you need continuity and stability in your 22.

Out of our 11 players over 30, only one (Hawkins) played a full season this year: Hawkins (23 games), Higgins (16), Selwood (22), Smith (22), Dangerfield (14), Henderson (19), Tuohy (19), Blicavs (22), Duncan (11), Rohan (19), Stanley (17).

You can't limp into finals, getting blokes back like Duncan who hasn't played in months, and Tuohy, etc. and expect to make it to the big dance.

Don't know how you've come to that conclusion when Duncan was our best player on Friday?
 

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Where to from here? Win 3 finals in a row. The hardest would be the prelim. Long odds now but you need a plan.

Problems

1) Slow ball movement
, and poor inside 50 delivery giving Cameron and Hawkins no chance.

2) Lack of defensive intensity around the ball

3) Need more goals from our small forwards and mids. Who is 4th on our goal kicking after the big 3? Smith and Close with 13. Not promising.

4) Haynes, Lever, and Alir. What is that? The sequence of interceptors that are key to their teams and must be nullified.

Solutions

1) if an quick option is on in the middle, take it on.

2) More intensity, pressure and tackling across the whole ground.

3) Drop Dahlhaus and play Duncan forward. Also helps with inside 50 delivery.

4) Left field - play Henderson forward as a defensive tagger. His stats don’t matter. His job is negate Haynes, Lever and Alir. Requires us to bring in ZGuthrie as 7 defender. Tuohy replaces O’Connor.

That to me is by far the biggest problem

You back to the Frem game this year over in Perth - Geel won by about 12 goals

In the last qtr - Geel scored a goal - they went from FB to FF - with about 6 kicks - there was no run by any Geel player - it was all stationary - it was like a game of chess - re the moves - kick it here here their their and the final kick ended with Sav taking the O/H mark in the goalsquare

Geel could do that because Frem are hopeless - come the finals - that has been proven it doesnt work - 2nd half of 19PF is a classic example - 4 goal lead at h/t - Rich turned on the power in the 2nd half with scintillating quick ball movement and Geel fell to bits

I think the real angst for the supporters ( apart from the shocking final;s record ) is C Scott is contracted to 2022 - common sense says - ok we will sit nice and quietly on our cards - we dont have to rush anything - we will see how things pan out to 2022 - but that is not going to happen ( and all clubs are guilty of this over time ) . Even if the Cats bomb out in S/Sets with a lethargic loss to GWS - it doesnt matter because C Scott will be reappointed in the offseason for another 3 yrs till the end of 2025 by Hocking who is his greatest fan and got him the job in the 1st place - and every Geel supporter ( except Geel Crazy ) will be pisssed off about that - but that is what is going to happen - it is an absolute certainty
 
Interestingly; I had a quick browse around for comments by Brian Cook to find where he says we need to win a premiership (relatively unsuccessfully too except for when we went out in 2018)

Have a look at this article ahead of this season... not sure it quite played out the way it was expected; from my perspective anyway:

Just read that article, I have to say I didn't see much evidence that his comments bore any fruit particularly these:
“The real challenge is how do we provide opportunities for our young players next year, OK? That’ll need a different mentality from some of the senior players who expect to play 22 games. Maybe they won’t, maybe they’ll play 15. I think we’ll expect more flexibility around the expectations of senior players, and how we can bring the young kids through.”

Sure some of them got a few games but by and large it appears the MOC has ignored Cookies intentions. Not sure if the club is on the same page here.
 
Just read that article, I have to say I didn't see much evidence that his comments bore any fruit particularly these:
“The real challenge is how do we provide opportunities for our young players next year, OK? That’ll need a different mentality from some of the senior players who expect to play 22 games. Maybe they won’t, maybe they’ll play 15. I think we’ll expect more flexibility around the expectations of senior players, and how we can bring the young kids through.”

Sure some of them got a few games but by and large it appears the MOC has ignored Cookies intentions. Not sure if the club is on the same page here.

That's the interesting thing, we have been bringing the kids/newer players through this year and at a similar rate to what we did back in 2012

This was a post by winty yesterday looking the injection of sub-50 game players this year compared with 10 years ago

Wow, this actually surprised me a bit. Was bored so went back through each game in the 2011 season and this season thus far to see how many players we had each week who had played in less than 50 games at the start of the season (in the 2021 season, Miers, Atkins and Ratugolea all reached the 50 game milestone during the year so I put an asterix next to the games they played after they reached that milestone).

2011

Round 1 - Duncan, T.Hunt, Menzel, Guthrie
Round 2 - Podsiadly, Duncan, T.Hunt, Menzel, Guthrie, Christensen
Round 3 - Podsiadly, Duncan, T,Hunt, Menzel, Christensen
Round 4 - Podsiadly, T.Hunt, Menzel, Christensen
Round 5 - Podsiadly, Duncan, T.Hunt, Menzel
Round 7 - Podsiadly, Duncan, Menzel, Christensen
Round 8 - Podsiadly, Duncan, Menzel, Christensen
Round 9 - Podsiadly, Duncan, T.Hunt, Christensen, Vardy
Round 10 - Podsiadly, T.Hunt, Menzel, Vardy, Cowan
Round 11 - Podsiadly, Duncan, T.Hunt, Menzel, Vardy, Cowan
Round 12 - Podsiadly, Duncan, T.Hunt, Menzel, Vardy
Round 13 - Podsiadly, Duncan, T.Hunt, Menzel, Vardy
Round 14 - Podsiadly, Duncan, T.Hunt, Menzel, Christensen, Gillies, D.Simpson, Motlop, Brown
Round 15 - Podsiadly, Duncan, Menzel, Christensen, Gillies, Vardy, Motlop, Brown
Round 16 - Podsiadly, Duncan, T.Hunt, Menzel, Christensen, Vardy, Motlop
Round 17 - Podsiadly, Hogan, T.Hunt, West, Christensen, Vardy, Motlop
Round 18 - Podsiadly, Duncan, West, Christensen, Cowan
Round 19 - Duncan, West, Christensen
Round 20 - Podsiadly, Duncan, West, Christensen
Round 21 - Podsiadly, Duncan, Menzel, Christensen, Vardy
Round 23 - Podsiadly, Menzel, West, Christensen
Round 24 - Podsiadly, Duncan, Menzel, West, Christensen
Qualifying Final - Podsiadly, Duncan, Menzel, West, Christensen
Preliminary Final - Podsiadly, Duncan, West, Christensen
Grand Final - Podsiadly, Duncan, West, Christensen

Games played that season:
Podsiadly 23, Duncan 21, Christensen 19, Menzel 18, T.Hunt 13, Vardy 9, West 9, Motlop 4, Cowan 3, Brown 2, Gillies 2, Guthrie 2, Hogan 1, Simpson 1

Total games = 127

2021

Round 1 - Miers, Atkins, Clark, Z.Guthrie, Constable
Round 2 - Miers, Atkins, Clark, Z.Guthrie, Constable, Evans
Round 3 - Miers, Atkins, Clark, Constable, Evans, Holmes
Round 4 - Miers, Atkins, Clark, Z.Guthrie, Narkle, Close, Holmes
Round 5 - Miers*, Atkins, Clark, Z.Guthrie, Narkle, Close, Holmes
Round 6 - Miers*, Atkins, Clark, Close, De Koning
Round 7 - Miers*, Atkins, Clark, Close
Round 8 - Miers*, Atkins, Clark, Guthrie, Narkle, Close
Round 9 - Atkins, Ratugolea, Guthrie, Narkle, Simpson, Close
Round 10 - Atkins, Ratugolea, Clark, Z.Guthrie, Narkle, Close, Holmes
Round 11 - Atkins, Ratugolea, Z.Guthrie, Narkle, Close
Round 12 - Atkins, Ratugolea, Clark, Z.Guthrie, Narkle, Close, Holmes
Round 14 - Atkins, Ratugolea, Narkle, Close
Round 15 - Atkins, Ratugolea, Narkle, Close
Round 16 - Atkins, Ratugolea, Narkle, Close
Round 17 - Miers*, Atkins*, Narkle, Close, Holmes
Round 18 - Miers*, Atkins*, Ratugolea, Narkle, Close, Holmes
Round 19 - Miers*, Atkins*, Ratugolea, Narkle, Close
Round 20 - Ratugolea*, Clark, Narkle, Z.Guthrie, Close, Kreuger
Round 21 - Ratugolea*, Clark, Narkle, Z.Guthrie, Close, Holmes, Kreuger
Round 22 - Ratugolea*, Narkle, Z.Guthrie, Close, Simpson, Holmes
Round 23 - Miers*, Atkins*, Close, Simpson, Holmes
Qualifying Final - Miers*, Atkins*, Close, Simpson

Games played this season: Atkins 20, Close 20, Narkle 16, Ratugolea 13, Miers 13, Z.Guthrie 11, Clark 11, Holmes 10, Simpson 4, Constable 3, Kreuger 2, Evans 2, De Koning 1

Total number of games: 126

And here I was thinking we played more kids back in 2011 than we did this year.

I guess having a medical sub this season could tend to skew the figures somewhat since there is an extra player each week, but still...
 
That's the interesting thing, we have been bringing the kids/newer players through this year and at a similar rate to what we did back in 2012

This was a post by winty yesterday looking the injection of sub-50 game players this year compared with 10 years ago
Do you really think that's been done with senior players being omitted or out of necessity through injury?, it doesn't feel like it's been a conscious effort to me. Outside of Higgins ordinary form, a couple of pre-finals rests and injuries It doesn't appear to me at least that this has been the mindset.
 
Where to go from here? Look, the way I read the past 10 years of the history of the GFC is this. I sincerely believe at the top level in the club, this period has not been about winning premierships. They won't say that of course but it is true. And while it leaves us fans frustrated, disappointed, dejected, heartbroken year after year, I don't see it as mismanagement. The period has been about setting the club up for longer term stability, developing a meaningful set of values, a world class stadium and having financial independence. To do this, they chose a coach who they felt they as managers could put a lot of faith in - not just in a football sense but in a whole-club sense. A coach who is part of the management of the club. CS may not be the best gameday coach, but he is loyal, seems to be able to connect both with players but also with the board and with the AFL. He is an excellent ambassador for the club. There is also the relation between the board, Scott and the captain Selwood. Looking at it from the outside, that relation, during the past 10 years, has been as tight as I think I have ever seen at any club. If I would have a guess, I'd say there is almost too much trust going on there, if that is possible. Just like Scott is a very inner-sanctum kind of coach, Selwood I feel is also a kind of inner-sanctum kind of captain. He has a lot of influence and, I think, can literally do no wrong in the eyes of anyone that matters there. He has tested the love a few times, for e.g. when he was done for speeding and cost the club key sponsorship, but just continues on. And I think he has had (along with Dangerfield now) sometimes too much of a say in the longer term direction of the club, especially in recruitment of players. Look, of course he wants the best chance to hold up the cup at least one more time in his career - especially as captain. But as soon as a club is recruiting with the aim of giving their champion players (like Sel and Hawkins) another chance at the ultimate prize, and not for the interests of the club itself, you know something has gone wrong. For me - and I'm a complete outsider obviously - my view would be to ease some of the responsibilities of people like Scott and Selwood. They don't have to do everything. Give them the opportunity to focus on and get better at the things that the club should really expect from them. Scott can become just a better coach. In 2019 I thought they needed to give him a year sabbatical or something to refresh, clear his mind and develop new ideas. He's had too much of a say in recruitment I believe. Wellsy should be left with those decisions, and should be given the draft picks he needs (which often isn't necessarily high ones) to get the right players to the club. Use our experienced players as development coaches for those younger guys - and put some faith in them! Don't kill their confidence by bringing them in to the side and dropping them after 1 or 2 games. Selwood, I think, as good as he is as a player, can still be a better captain. It's about knowing your teammates, what motivates them, how to make each one of them a better person and better player when you're around them. Let's face it, we're very lucky that our club is still in pretty good shape after all these years. Perhaps some of us will be lucky to see another premiership era. So long as the club continues to have good people who have the interests of the club at heart, it won't be as far away as it seems. In time we may look back at this era as one which was hard but which ultimately set us up for longer term success.
 
Do you really think that's been done with senior players being omitted or out of necessity through injury?, it doesn't feel like it's been a conscious effort to me. Outside of Higgins ordinary form, a couple of pre-finals rests and injuries It doesn't appear to me at least that this has been the mindset.
It would be interesting to know what we would have done without injuries, and yes they did kinda force our hands at times but you can also only select players from what's available in front of you.

We also need to remember that the on again & off again VFL season will not have helped the case for a number of our younger players, with the lack of continuity at that level not allowing them to show form for senior selection

But looking at the positive side of our injuries this year, and it's allowed us to rotate players through the side and give those less experienced guys exposure at the top level. Those who are good enough were rewarded with repeated selection, but it's going to be hard for some players to hold a spot when senior players return because a Max Holmes is never going to keep a Mitch Duncan out of the 22
 
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