Prediction Where will Carlton finish in 2019?

[10571z]

Really hoping Carlton move up the ladder. I recon Bolts is a good coach and could be one of the greats but he has never had much to work with really. He'll end up getting sacked in a few years if things stay the same. Can't really roll with the whole journey thing for to much longer.
Not sure what needs to happen. Just hope that these young guys improve enough in time.

What have you liked? Tbh I think he plays a hugely stagnant poor brand of footy.

 

[Fadge]

As raw picks, when locked in, you’re correct. But that’s just a snapshot in time; presently, we’re not at that snap shot and 5 years from now, who knows how that snapshot will look. Only need to look back to 2015 and turn those picks into players and no club would be trading Schache (pick 2) for Charlie Curnow (pick 12) and Ryan Burton (pick 19).

So sure, everyone can have an opinion, but anyone acting like they’ve got the washup under wraps here already based on this kind of reasoning is just kidding themselves at this point.

Finally, an intelligent, informed response.

Great example old boy, and I have never been conclusive in my judgement of the draft pick swap, just dealing with the facts as we currently have them.

 

[Fadge]

Are you intentionally ignoring the fact the Carlton has Stocker rated 6 in this draft?

Are you ignoring the fact that Adelaide missed the finals with the oldest team in the comp?

As it stands, by Carlton’s reasoning (which is just as realistic as your scenarios) we have this trade:

Carlton in:
2018 Pick 6
2019 pick 9

Carlton out:
2019 pick 1

Understand and appreciate your logic, but the fact 12 clubs passed on him between pick 6 and pick 18, together with the fact Carlton only opted to trade for the draft pick when he was still available at pick 19, means he can't reasonably be considered a number 6 draft pick.

 

[Ambrosia]

Understand and appreciate your logic, but the fact 12 clubs passed on him between pick 6 and pick 18, together with the fact Carlton only opted to trade for the draft pick when he was still available at pick 19, means he can't reasonably be considered a number 6 draft pick.

I doubt Carlton even sees him as a genuine number 6 pick. I mean most sides would consider themselves relatively unlucky to draft a guy at 6 who they rated as the 6th best player.

 

[gillo94]

As raw picks, when locked in, you’re correct. But that’s just a snapshot in time; presently, we’re not at that snap shot and 5 years from now, who knows how that snapshot will look. Only need to look back to 2015 and turn those picks into players and no club would be trading Schache (pick 2) for Charlie Curnow (pick 12) and Ryan Burton (pick 19).

So sure, everyone can have an opinion, but anyone acting like they’ve got the washup under wraps here already based on this kind of reasoning is just kidding themselves at this point.

Well said

 

[HBF]

Nic Newman would have to take that role. Lochie O’Brien tried out last year. Blues will cover that role

We might be able to cover the role, but we cannot cover losing Doc. He is our leader in defence, and we looked terrible at times last year.

 

[HBF]

How is nic Newman an improvement on mullet, Shaw, o’shea?

He’s essentially just the same level. O’brien Is a kid and a little way off yet.

Newman is a better prospect that the 3 you have mentioned. Mullett and O'Shea were terrible last year.

 

[Gethelred]

Carlton rate him at 6, other clubs take another 12 players without taking him. Either PR to justify the trade or Carlton alone rate a player waaaay higher than any other club does.

... or, you know, it's where we rated him, and why we were happy to trade our 2019 first for him.

I mean, we've rather put our money where our mouth is with regards to Stocker. If we've made the move, why would we need PR? Either we're right and it pays off, or it doesn't.

 

[La Dispute]

It’s a compromised top 6 aka we took our players in peripheral areas of need

Doubt the club sees him as the 6th most talented player in the pool overall.

 

[Gethelred]

The term I used was 'on the balance of probabilities'.

Of course the end result is always what you do with the picks.

You picked up Stocker with pick 19. Who knows how much further he was going to fall in draft order?

But right now, if we were to predict the trade, it appears you have swapped pick 2 (being generous to Carlton) for picks 12 and 19.

How many clubs would do that swap of draft picks?

Most clubs are conservative by nature, and rather obviously keep the bird in the hand (2) over the two in the bush (12 and 19). That being said, it depends on several things; the players within the ranges those picks can obtain, and the players likely to go top 5 (the best prospects).

In Andrew McGrath's draft year - from memory - between picks 1-8 the quality was fairly even, with the next level down being of reasonable prospect to pick 30. If next year projects like that year did, you would - in theory - be perfectly happy taking Stocker and ending up with (in 2016, at least) Will Brodie/Jack Bowes/Oliver Florent/Jy Simpkin/Daniel Venables/Harry Perryman/Jordan Galluci/Todd Marshall/Jarrod Berry/Tim English/Sam Powell-Pepper/Will Heyward/Alex Witherden (picks 9-23 in 2016). I don't know about you, but I'd take Stocker and one of that lot over solely Tim Taranto.

And that's given your hypothetical is sitting fairly close to the worst case scenario.

 

[Gethelred]

So what proven players have you added to make your backline any better? You don’t have a good backline by any measure, regardless of whether it is your strongest line.

If you had an attacking game plan this year then that isn’t looking good.

Where do you think problems with your team’s inability to defend and attack lie?

Midfield. It's where it all begins, and if you cannot at least break even with your transition, you're ****ed.

If you are asking how do we resolve the thing, you'd have to look at why the midfield was so lacklustre; a combination of youth, unfamiliarity with the coaching and each other, a towering over-reliance on Cripps for clearances and Curnow for tackling, and a general inability from the youth to lay tackles which stuck and to escape the tackles laid on them. Put simply, we were weak and small, and sides like St Kilda/Sydney/Brisbane/Geelong/WB/Collingwood who have either big bodies through the middle or well hardened mature players who could ignore the tackler and dispose to advantage in a way you just couldn't against a normal midfield. Talent and skill doesn't automatically compensate for 3-5 years time in the gym and on the track.

If the midfield coach is the right man for the job, then we should start to see improvement there, with Fisher, SPS, Cuningham, Kennedy, Williamson into their third and fourth years. You're not going to get consistency from Dow and O'Brien yet, but if the team starts to get on a roll they could improve rapidly. Basically, we need to improve our clearance quality, we need to improve our transition from kickins, and we need to improve on our capacity to move the ball quickly between the arcs.

There is not a backline in the history of the sport that could've withstood the sheer number and quality of entries we were letting in every single week last season, let alone the injury crisis which struck our backline. Fix the problems upfield, deny opposition their ease when going forward, and it'd allow our platoon of tall intercept defenders to do what they're good at, instead of needing to all play hard lockdown, unable to trust the midfield to halve a contest.

 

[jooce8891]

So what proven players have you added to make your backline any better? You don’t have a good backline by any measure, regardless of whether it is your strongest line.

If you had an attacking game plan this year then that isn’t looking good.

Where do you think problems with your team’s inability to defend and attack lie?

its really taken a massive hit with docherty missing the season once again because he's the general that organises the backline and where players are meant to be/standing. but if he didnt, the inclusion of a fit marchbank, williamson, plowman, docherty, jones and to an extent a fit weitering (missed some games due to injury this year) would certainly help the issue of the backline. and the problem clearly is our midfield as it is our weakest part of the ground, a good midfield can make even the worst backlines look good.

 

[parmy2balmey]

what style of play is bolton trotting out this season? he’s the biggest question mark at carlton

 

[My name geoff]

Understand and appreciate your logic, but the fact 12 clubs passed on him between pick 6 and pick 18, together with the fact Carlton only opted to trade for the draft pick when he was still available at pick 19, means he can't reasonably be considered a number 6 draft pick.

I love how your assessment is so predicated on the fact that Stocker can’t be rated at number 6 because he wasn’t a consensus number 6 lol

Carlton rated him 6, that throws your whole argument out the window.

“If Carlton assessed the trade by assuming they would finish any higher than 17th next year based on their 2018 season, that is both deluded and negligent.”

No it’s not deluded and negligent, the only thing that is deluded is that
you think that the fact Carlton got their man at 19 is of more importance than the fact Carlton rated their man at 6. Hence were desperate to get their 6th ranked player.

Carlton assesses the trade based off the FACT that they were getting a guy they rated at 6. That’s all that counts.

Worst case scenario as far as the trade value goes from Carlton’s perspective:

2018 pick 6
2019 pick 18
(Equivalent of pick 2 in points system)

For

2019 pick 1

Criticism will only be valid once we know for sure that Carlton’s rating of Stocker was too high. We won’t know that for a while yet.

 

[WilloTree]

He didn’t say we’d beat you, he said we’d finish above you.

Not that I agree with his statement, but 2018 individual game results have very little to do with it.

We beat Essendon in 2018, so I’m guessing you think we will finish above them in 2019?

Fair enough. Is this better?

14

Fremantle
8 14 0 76.2 32
18

Carlton
2 20 0 59.3 8

 

[mopsy]

Ever considered how the forward line is often dependent on the game plan? The quality of delivery? The speed of play?

Do you honestly think that a team having played a style of game like Carlton has over the past couple of years is going to kick 100+? Look at that zone defence and the lack of communication without the Doc around. Look at the hesitance to push forward and the constant chip-kicking around the backline.

This talk is incredibly overrated as the objective is to simply kick a higher score than the opposition. The problem for the blues wasn't scoring last year. It ended up being the leakage of scores against them.

But no. Bash an area of the field the club has already addressed. Bash what genuinely looks to be an exciting group of forwards moving ahead.

Problem lies in the midfield. End of story.



Oh look! You're trolling here as well.

Quit wasting space with this drivel.

On my own board we have an opposition thread. Its totally ruined by vitriol and point scoring. Seems no one is mature enough to have a sensible discussion about opponents.

The constant need of some posters to add nothing to a debate but vitriol and do nothing but denigrate opponents says an awful lot about those posters.
Personally i try to ignore them, everyone can see they lack the maturity and intelligence to have a sensible debate. So why try.

I can understand getting into it on game day and some banter win or lose but to constantly go out of their ways to score a few cheap points and basically wreck any sort of decent debate is childish.

You dont have to look too far to see the reasons why Carltons fwd line failed. A simple look at stats for the yr and any fool would see they were last for inside fifties
In most cases if the ball aint in the fwd fifty you aint gunna kick goals. They also conceded the sixth most amount of inside fifties which sort of says if you cant lock it in your fwd half your midfield and defense comes under huge pressure and the ball lives up the other end.

There are lots of reasons for this. Injuries, Maturity, Experience depth ball movement and as you say game plan.All easy to see yet it seems some are too stupid to see or failing that too childish.

As a tiger im not defending your footy club, in fact i have a real dislike for you lot, but where do you draw the line. Im just trying to have a decent debate for why things are the way they are without all the insecure dick measuring that goes on around here. I dont come here to just talk tigers there are 18 teams and it would be good to be able to have a proper discussion about all of them.

Sadly it is almost impossible to find a level headed debate without all the childish nonsense that goes on.Good luck next yr i expect improvement but theres still a lot of hard yards to be done id say.

 

[WFGodot]

Well, I absolutely expect improvement and as many as 8-9 wins but possibly as low as 4. An inexperienced list will show flashes of brilliance and then put in a shocker. The fun will come with watching the changing of the guard and break out games from players under 21-22. The real development in terms of ladder position will be 2020. Anything from a low of 16th to a blue sky high of 12th, obviously I prefer the latter...

 

[PP34]

How is nic Newman an improvement on mullet, Shaw, o’shea?

He’s essentially just the same level. O’brien Is a kid and a little way off yet.

O’Shea was one of the worst Carlton players I’ve ever seen.

In his last game he had something like 12 disposals, 10 of them were clangers.

Shaw was horrid too. Mullet never impressed either.

I’d back Newman in to at least be serviceable.

 

[RAPPA]

O’Shea was one of the worst Carlton players I’ve ever seen.

In his last game he had something like 12 disposals, 10 of them were clangers.

Shaw was horrid too. Mullet never impressed either.

I’d back Newman in to at least be serviceable.

Please. Let us not speak of O’Sh’t.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Understand and appreciate your logic, but the fact 12 clubs passed on him between pick 6 and pick 18, together with the fact Carlton only opted to trade for the draft pick when he was still available at pick 19, means he can't reasonably be considered a number 6 draft pick.

If not for Carlton who knows where he would have been drafted? 25? 30?

 

[radiojake]

I love the rationality that pick #19 = pick #6 cos SOS says so

 

[gillo94]

I love the rationality that pick #19 = pick #6 cos SOS says so

Justin Reid rates one higher first round pick to two 1st Round Picks because Justin Reid says so. Justin Reid made a decision on what he though was best for AFC and Sos rated Liam highly and got him. People forgetting he had a broken jaw and missed the championship and still got MVP of TAC cup which Clayton Oliver and Higgins have won, so some prestige to the award considering who has recently won it.

Point was made before, who would you rather have
Josh Shache or Charlie Curnow & Ryan Burton?

 

[gillo94]

If not for Carlton who knows where he would have been drafted? 25? 30?

Says who? Apparently Tigers interested which was pick right after 19

 

[ManOfClay]

Justin Reid rates one higher first round pick to two 1st Round Picks because Justin Reid says so.

Point was made before, who would you rather have
Josh Shache or Charlie Curnow & Ryan Burton?

What stupid logic.

Who would you rather have?

Josh Kelly or Ben Lennon and Blake Acres?

 

[gillo94]

What stupid logic.

Who would you rather have?

Josh Kelly or Ben Lennon and Blake Acres?

Well that’s the unknown.
One example you would rather take the pair and on yours clearly rather take the top pick.

Can we agree will have to wait 5 years to see how it goes to see which logic is the most reasonable for our scenario? Also to see which players are the better established and better performing at AFL level.