Preview - Where will Carlton finish in 2019? | Page 3 | BigFooty

Preview Where will Carlton finish in 2019?

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by The Ghost Rider, Dec 5, 2018.

Tags:
?

Where will Carlton finish in 2019?

  1. 16th

    44 vote(s)
    19.8%
  2. 17th

    97 vote(s)
    43.7%
  3. 18th

    81 vote(s)
    36.5%
  1. Rooboys Rool

    Rooboys Rool All Australian

    North Melbourne
    Joined:
    Jan 16
    Posts:
    783
    Whilst I think Carlton will finish 17th, it’s pretty stupid to have a poll with only 16th, 17th or 18th on it.

    I reckon Carlton have another 2-3 years of bottom 4 finishes ahead of them. Reason being a real lack of players in their prime due to the 2008-12 drafts being so bad for them.

    They do have a lot of promising youth on their list, but as those players start to move into their prime the older players like Murphy will retire. So it won’t be until a large chunk of that promising youth has moved into the 23-28 year old bracket that they’ll be potentially challenging for top 4.

    Lot of water to go under the bridge, but if all those high draft picks do fulfill their potential, the Blues are well placed for an extended period of success.
     

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  2. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Summited Everest 30/9/17

    Richmond
    Joined:
    Sep 15
    Posts:
    9,035
    Location:
    Hillary Step
    Other Teams:
    76ers
    Add one token ‘riser’ to make you seem unbiased and one or two ‘fallers’ to get the bites
     
  3. Carson Dial

    Carson Dial Club Legend

    Fremantle
    Joined:
    Aug 17
    Posts:
    1,840
    Location:
    Moondyne
    I think we all know the answer to the OP’s question...unless you’re a Blues fan.
     
    Fadge likes this.
  4. ep2018

    ep2018 Bigfooty Pessimist

    West Coast
    Joined:
    Sep 06
    Posts:
    24,383
    Second last. Only Gold Coast will finish below them.
     
    Cripps4Life likes this.
  5. blitzer

    blitzer Norm Smith Medallist

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Aug 06
    Posts:
    5,461
    Location:
    House
    How dare I suggest a player who will be 35 next year is past his prime? Champion data's stats (or perhaps how they evaluate their stats) is pretty subjective and I'm sure you agree given Cripps didn't make it into the elite category. Anyway Simpson playing at his standard consistent level has never correlated with wins for Carlton. Isn't he 3rd on the all time loss record going into next season? As for him getting tagged - well I guess the defensive forward each team seems to have has to play on someone. Who else do Carlton have that was playing in 2018?
     
    Fadge and Unique Name like this.
  6. jackenny

    jackenny Club Legend

    Gold Coast
    Joined:
    Jun 14
    Posts:
    1,051
    It's their KPPs on both sides of the ground that can cause them to springboard up the ladder. They're all entering their early twenties at once, which is when the big jumps in form for KPPs happen. It can surprise you (like in 2007 when Roughead and Franklin came on at the same time, going from kicking 12 and 31 goals in 2006, to 40 and 73 in 2007, basically showing you how big a jump it can be). That's what could very well happen with Curnow and McKay, and they could have McGovern firing (assuming he can get on the park) on top of that. I feel Weitering has been undeservedly forgotten, as well - because he's 21 next season and poised to start making huge jumps. For their midfield, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Zac Fisher are about to come of age, too.

    You can see it all coming together really in 2021 (that'll be coming into their peak):

    Midfield
    Inside Brigade: Cripps (26), O'Brien (22), Stocker (21), Walsh (21)
    Outside Brigade: Petrevski-Seton (23), Fisher (23), Setterfield (23), Dow (22)
    Old Brigade: Ed Curnow (32), ... Dale Thomas (34) and Marc Murphy (34) might still be around

    Forward
    Tall: Casboult (30), Curnow (24), McKay (24)
    Small: Fasolo (29), Garlett (25)
    Medium: McGovern (27)

    Back
    Tall: Jones (30), Weitering (24), Marchbank (25)
    Small: Docherty (28), Plowman (27)
    Probably retired: Kade Simpson (37)

    Ruck
    Kreuzer (32), Lobbe (32), Phillips (30)

    From the above, they need to grab small forwards and ruckman to be ready for that peak. All of their ruckman are so injury prone it's not funny. Will have to seriously start looking into Free Agents to fix that, because it's too late to draft them in time. Small forwards are pretty easy, comparatively. But it's definitely something they have to look at as Fasolo could be a bust due to poor work ethic and Garlett is only one man. It's possible someone else on their list will develop into a good small forward, though. To a lesser degree, they probably want to look at grabbing a couple small defenders, too, but that's something that's easy to find, too. Small forwards and defenders are sprinkled everywhere in a draft, and are cheap to trade for. It's also common as hell to see speedy outside mids (that Carlton have an abundance of) be turned into run-out defenders.

    Those are my thoughts, anyway. Carlton are very much on the cusp of going up.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2018 at 1:54 AM
  7. Xhoquelin

    Xhoquelin All Australian

    Melbourne
    Joined:
    Dec 16
    Posts:
    783
    Other Teams:
    Arsenal, Charlotte Hornets
    If they got a Dom Tyson/Anthony Miles/Jarryd Lyons in the trade period I think they could do a fair bit of damage. Guys like Fisher and SPS are genuine footy players who could go to even higher levels as long as they don’t have to run through the centre square while their bodies are still maturing. Dow wasn’t ready for AFL footy last season and was thrust in but he’ll be better for the course IMO and hit 400+ touches this season.

    Once they can get that inside midfield group functioning at an average level they’re not a bad side at all. It’s just hard for guys with clear talent such as Garlett, Pickett, SPS to influence matches if the team is 18th in inside fifties.

    I think they’ll have a solid season and go close to breaking even after the bye rounds with wins and losses. There will be games where Dow and Walsh actually play as elite midfield talents to take pressure off Cripps. Counter attacking wise the team has a fair bit of potential with Curnow having that Jenkins like tank, and O’Brien/Fisher/SPS spreading play after pinpoint plays are setup by the best rebounding defender in the AFL in Docherty.

    Definitely think that it will be another tough season as Bolton really has to stamp an identity on this side next season instead of faltering. With Docherty Simpson and now Thomas stationed in the back fifty they can always go back to stacking the defensive fifty with Weitering Plowman Marchbank Jones Williamson etc. and trying to hit teams on the break but that’s not really a style that will help nurture their forwards. This team needs to start winning midfield battles and locking it inside fifty so the likes of Pickett, Garlett, Silvagni, McKay, can progress to being more than 25-30 goal forwards that the likes of Casbiult and Wright topped out as.

    I don’t think they’ll get more than 7 wins but that’s because the competition is so even next season. 2 of Dow, Walsh, Kennedy getting 400 contested possessions between them, the team getting to 50 inside fifties more often than not, and 100 from Curnow/McKay/McGovern major success IMO even if they only win 5-6 games like Brisbane did this season.

    Gold Coast though, my goodness. They could go 0-11 to start the season. Their list isn’t as bad as people make it out to be but Collins/Corbett/Lukosius/Rankine/Burgess/Miles will probably all be debutants round one. The midfield has to establish some chemistry. The forward line has basically none, even 2 meter peter has minimal continuity at AFL level. Will be a lot of trialling and error for the team, and I can’t see it winning AFL games until after the bye rounds. I don’t think Miles/Brodie/Swalloe/Touk fit into one midfield either.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2018 at 2:15 AM
  8. jackenny

    jackenny Club Legend

    Gold Coast
    Joined:
    Jun 14
    Posts:
    1,051
    Ignoring Champion Data (I agree, it's a poor reference), Kade Simpson hasn't exactly dropped in form despite being 34 years old. For instance, he averaged just over 26 disposals, 5 marks, and 2 tackles in 2018, and most will agree he passed the 'eye test'. His disposal count for this year was actually his second highest total for his career, and he hasn't played less than 20 games a season since 2012 (19 games), 15 games in 2005 before that, showcasing his remarkable durability. Lachie Whitfield averaged just over 26 disposals, 6 marks, and 3 tackles in 2018, and was named All-Australian in 2018 on the half-back flank, so Simpson in comparison is still in the mix as one of the best exiting men in defence, at least compared to younger players playing the same role, obviously.

    It's like saying Corey Enright was past his prime in 2016, really. He might've been 35 and forced by the powers that be to retire, but I doubt any Geelong supporter would say he was past it.
     
  9. blitzer

    blitzer Norm Smith Medallist

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Aug 06
    Posts:
    5,461
    Location:
    House
    By 2021, sure they might have got their crap together. But this thread is all about 2019 (mostly because they traded away their first pick). I don't think you can ever really bank on 1st or 2nd year players improving a side. League wide there is only a few guys that are true game changers that early in their career. Even guys that have promising first years very regularly have an average 2nd year (or at least no better than their first and with less fanfare because expectations). McKay, Weitering and SPS would be 3 they would be hoping for improvement from in 2019 and actually have enough maturity.
     
    Fadge and jackenny like this.
  10. jackenny

    jackenny Club Legend

    Gold Coast
    Joined:
    Jun 14
    Posts:
    1,051
    Honestly, I think the injuries they had in 2018 has caused a recency bias and people forget that it was only in 2017 that Murphy won their Best and Fairest and had a pretty dominant year (averaging like 30 disposals per game), Kreuzer who missed out on a chunk of games in 2018 made the AA squad in 2017, and Docherty who completely missed out on 2018 was AA on the HBF in 2017. I can understand why they went about addressing this by getting Andrew Russell, because they're very much going to improve if they can get the above three on the park next year.

    Their midfield is probably going to still be bog average for a little longer, though. Patrick Cripps, Marc Murphy, and Ed Curnow are all the mature-aged players they have in this area, and the only ones in the right age bracket to improve next year to more than "bit-players" in the midfield are SPS and Zac Fisher who will both be 21 in 2019. Will Setterfield is a mystery, really. Dow and O'Brien will either start looking like AFL footballers next year, too; or they will have the dreaded second year blues and look like they're going backwards (like SPS did this year). Dale Thomas is really just okay depth at this stage of his career, but he's Top 22 because Carlton's midfield depth beyond all those already mentioned are made up of guys who'll likely be delisted by 2021. And I agree, Walsh and Stocker aren't likely to pull off a Judd and have immediate impact, although I imagine Walsh will get game time (and is probably better depth than some of the other midfielders on their list), or at least should as the #1 draft pick.

    My biggest reservations are actually on Bolton as a coach. I'm almost convinced he's the worst gameday coach in the AFL (tactically), bad enough I rate Alan Richardson as streets ahead (to be fair, Richardson is a pretty astute tactician, he just sucks as a communicator, which is the opposite problem that Bolton has as a coach - being an excellent communicator and horrible tactician).
     
    Brezsa likes this.
  11. kid_a

    kid_a Club Legend

    West Coast
    Joined:
    Apr 10
    Posts:
    1,694
    Location:
    Gothenburg (swe)
    Other Teams:
    Glory, Hammarby
    They're terrible, some good mids but that's it.
    If Bolton survives this year I'll be surprised.
    They went from bad in 2015...to bad in 2016...to terrible in 2017....to utter pathetic in 2018
     

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  12. PetterdHoisted

    PetterdHoisted Premiership Player

    Richmond
    Joined:
    Apr 14
    Posts:
    3,166
    Step back to go forward year for the Blues imo. Still convulsing with list overhaul.

    they'll play their GF in Round 1, Q1, and peddle hope/youth like mad, fair enough.

    In the meantime they'll continue the 'we're too proud but if you really think so' game in the media re. priority pick.

    But onfield they go backwards for mine, and will have PP in their clutches at seasons end (the prime facie bizarre Adelaide/Stocker deal made to get this over the line, smart cookies)

    Look for improved ladder position in 2020-2021.
     
    kozi likes this.
  13. jameses

    jameses Team Captain

    Hawthorn
    Joined:
    Jun 16
    Posts:
    590
    It really depends on how bad the Gold Coast are, but Carlton will finish bottom two.

    St Kilda are just slightly more competitive than Carlton, while the additions of Hogan and Lobb immediately result in Fremantle being a couple of tiers above Carlton.
     
  14. Alwaysacrow

    Alwaysacrow Club Legend

    Adelaide
    Joined:
    Jul 16
    Posts:
    1,999
    "Tell 'em they're dreaming" :drunk:
     
    Brezsa likes this.
  15. Alwaysacrow

    Alwaysacrow Club Legend

    Adelaide
    Joined:
    Jul 16
    Posts:
    1,999
    Hopefully last, but I predict 16th or 17th.
     
  16. amcre

    amcre Norm Smith Medallist

    Richmond
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    8,381
    16th or 17th fully regretting the Stocker trade when Adelaide make top 8.
     
  17. Isaac Cumming No 1

    Isaac Cumming No 1 Premium Platinum

    GWS
    Joined:
    Mar 18
    Posts:
    7,254
    I agree.
    I also think next year is very hard to read for the Blues. I think the best clue will be how to react to their first win. If they take belief and improve their performance then a good year is possible.

    To me the most disappointing thing about the Blues last year is they failed to take anything from the win against the Bombers. I get continuity being a huge issue in a team trying to rise though.

    Like GC failing to carry on from their great win against the Swans, they aren't good signs, at least in the short term.
     
  18. Milanista28

    Milanista28 Brownlow Medallist

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Dec 14
    Posts:
    10,237
    I can see 8 wins, 13-15 is my tip, They have plenty to work with IMO, They just need some luck in regards to injuries.

    If they finished both 2 with 3 wins or less Bolton isn't up to it.
     
    jooce8891 likes this.
  19. Marc_Remillard

    Marc_Remillard Angel of the Abyss

    Melbourne
    Joined:
    Jan 15
    Posts:
    5,630
    I didn't state that I thought it would happen, only that I'd love to see it happen for the lol from the melt down from Crow fans
     
  20. Dez!

    Dez! Brownlow Medallist

    Melbourne
    Joined:
    Jul 07
    Posts:
    29,216
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    Other Teams:
    Chicago Bulls
    You're in for disappointment then, we had more talent on the list and actually had a gameplan and went from 2 wins to 4 wins. There's no way in hell Carlton go from 2 wins to 8 in a season especially with how far off the mark they looked in 2018.

    It's still going to take time.
     
  21. Alwaysacrow

    Alwaysacrow Club Legend

    Adelaide
    Joined:
    Jul 16
    Posts:
    1,999
    I knew what you meant.
     
  22. Ambrosia

    Ambrosia Norm Smith Medallist

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Mar 10
    Posts:
    8,793
    You think it's logic or bias that has you predicting Adelaide and Essendon so far down the ladder?
     
  23. tugga

    tugga Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
    Joined:
    May 06
    Posts:
    29,250
    Location:
    Yid army
    Other Teams:
    Tottenham,Red Sox,San Antonio Spurs
    I have them 16th with half a dozen wins before really improving a lot in 2020.
     
  24. Thetrader15

    Thetrader15 Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Joined:
    Oct 15
    Posts:
    9,170
    And 20
     
    Morning_Fog likes this.
  25. TooBlue14

    TooBlue14 Club Legend

    Carlton
    Joined:
    Feb 15
    Posts:
    2,902
    More talent on your list? Please take into account what your players were in 2016 compared to what ours are in 2019

    Hogan McGovern --> ? who wins, similar players on and off the field
    Jones Cripps --> Cripps easily AA
    Salem SPS --> right now most people would take SPS but both had not lived up to their potential at these stages. SPS wins in the end.
    Petracca Curnow --> both had huge early years, Curnow been better at the stage of petracca in 2016, Petracca not really gone on with it. Curnow will
    Dawes Casboult --> Similar players on the outer at the same time. Casboult got more to give than Dawes did.
    Viney Ed Curnow --> inside bulls that have a lot of endurance. Viney better disposal. Ed Curnow underrated externally.
    Lumumba Thomas --> Both Ex Collingwood, Thomas reaching his coll form recently off half back. Both to have similar output.
    Trengrove Docherty --> Docherty returning to AA and captain. Wins hands down.
    Brayshaw Dow --> Dow tracking along nicely. Brayshaw early had a blip but is coming good. Dow wont have that and build nicely in 2019.
    Gawn Kruezer --> Kruezer highly rated by Gawn as his toughest opponent. Gawn wins through AA recently. Kruezer in 2017 was better than Gawn in 2016 BUT he hasn't got a lot of time left but Gawn does.
    Tyson Murphy --> Murphy not finishing healthy might not have the years left in him. Tyson wins but Murphy in 2017 was pretty special when injury free.
    Oliver Stocker --> Who knows if Stocker can track like Oliver. Similar players and their draft value did rise late in the piece. Oliver went higher and has the drive. Hopefully Stocker has too. Was 2016 Olivers first year??
    Dunn Plowman --> Plowman is a second hand player from GWS who is underrated externally. Goes to the resting ruck and fills defensive holes. Better than Dunn in 2016 imo.
    Stretch Setterfield --> similar age now as in 2016. Stretch wasn't getting regular AFL time. Setterfield if injury free goes past him in his first year playing regular uninjured footy, easily.
    Kent Obrien --> Kent wins, not enough yet from obrien. but elite kick. better upside than an off cast ken
    Frost Marchbank --> Frost and marchbank have had similar exposure coming from another team. Marchbank rated very high internally. 2019 is his breakout year with weitering. Frost will lose his spot to May in 2019 but in 2016 marchbank will go past his form in 2019.
    Garland Jones --> Couldn't find a match up for jones, not sure where he fits against Melbourne players because you don't have one like him. Nor does anyone. Kamikaze defender. very valuable if he gets it right. Data has him elite until his injury later in 2018.
    Pederson TDK --> TDK still very raw and young Pederson the gap filler forward ruck. Hopefully TDK goes past him. He was valuable to melb in 2016.
    Vince Fisher --> Quick inside outside mids, Vince the better record in 2016, but hes one of the exciting kids to jump up the ranks very quickly in 2019. Had a great 2018 until a player broke his leg with an errant trip.
    Kennedy-Harris Pickett --> Both quick on the outside. Pickett not living up to expectations and has a self imposed extra VFL training schedule until after Christmas. K-H the better player right now and probably not going to see Pickett reach the heights he should.
    Mcdonald McKay --> The Mcs. Harry is building nicely. I would of preffered him to be with Wiedeman but McDonald is the older one and McKay in comparison to McDonald in 2016 is very even.
    Weideman Kerr --> weideman debut year in 2016. Kerr done more in his leading and goals fro the pocket. Not sure if weideman got a game in 2016. Kerr best on track early in preseason. If he steps up and competes for a spot with Mckay, McGovern and Curnow, look out.
    Mcdonald Weitering --> Weitering should smash Oscar to pieces. always gets the toughest opponent while Oscar gets regularly beaten by big bodied forwards. in 2016 was much worse, played an intercept role without his current size. Who knows what weitering could become. Watch round 23 v Adelaide for his best. Could be the bet defender in the AFL by 2020 or the next, Oscar Mcdonald at a minimum.
    Hunt Williamson--> Williamson the better kick, Hunt the more kamikaze runner. I'd prefer the upside of Williamson if he stays injury free
    Neal-Bullen Kennedy --> Keendy and Neal bullen extra mids in the rotation, N-B the better and faster, not a great comparison for size or abilty
    Grimes Fasolo --> Fas could be anything, the next Cameron O'shea or the next Alex Fasolo. Fresh club should do him wonders. Grimes was good in 2007 but was old in 2016 and retired soon after.
    Bugg Bugg --> whos better here. We probably end up with the more mature Bugg who gets his last chance. No more dickheadedness hopefully.
    Spencer Lobbe --> extra mature rucks. Similar. Lobbe was great late in 2018. Hopefully only to be in VFL in 2019 as Kruezer to get all 22 games. knock on wood.
    Kennedy Newman --> Couldn't find a place for Newman above. Best 22 in Sydneys team, should play all 22 in 2019. Kennedy was good in 2016. Averaged a goal a game. Newman could be around the mark. Different players though.
    Garlett Lebois --> Garlett on the way out now but great in 2016. Probably not a small on carltons list anymore. Lebois is the one we have high hopes for and maybe Polson. Garlett wins easily.
    Vanderberg Silvagni --> Silvagni early was great. Been moved around way too much now. Vanderburg was good for Melbourne in 2016 averaged a goal a game and about 13 touches. Silvangi does that and can average that many goals as he did in 2017 but defence and midfield was his go lately and mainly in the VFL which he dominates just like vanderberg. difference in age and an underager in his draft yaer silvangi. His name allows him the time to grow
    Jetta Simpson --> small defenders. Simpson the better but no AA, YET. Maybe his later years he gets one.
    Harmes Lang --> Harmes eaily. But lang has shown glimpses, injurys hurt.
    Garland Garlett --> Our garlett played just as many games as garland in 2016. Garlett the better player right now. Despite the struggles he faces to keep a spot.
    Newton Polson
    Hullett Cuningham
    King Phillips
    King Schumacher
    Kennedy Finbar
    Jones Pickett
    Terlich Macreadie
    Michie Silvagni

    Others i didn't comment on because most of melbournes other players didn't get games. Nor have carltons in 2018. and some only just drafted.

    If you're comparing Carlton 2019 to Melbourne 2016 I think you're way off in terms of talent. Maybe at a stretch, Carlton 2018 v Melbourne 2015 is a better reflection But i expect Carlton in 2019 to have a very similar output to the Melbourne did in 2016 despite Carlton having much more talent on their list in the youth backet than Melbourne did in 2016.
     
    ESKIE likes this.
Back To Top

Share This Page