Prediction Where will Carlton finish in 2019?

Where will Carlton finish in 2019?

  • 16th

    Votes: 74 16.1%

  • 17th

    Votes: 165 35.9%

  • 18th

    Votes: 221 48.0%
  • Total voters
    460

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TooBlue14 said:
So Melb 2012? So 16th and 4 wins. I’d say we could easily have a melb 2016 kind of rise as early as 2019 and 10 wins. But I’ve predicted 8 on my ladder predictor.

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It's 2018 mate.
So currently I think you are 4 years NOW behind 2016 Melbourne.
Hope that clears that up.
 
Whilst I think Carlton will finish 17th, it’s pretty stupid to have a poll with only 16th, 17th or 18th on it.

I reckon Carlton have another 2-3 years of bottom 4 finishes ahead of them. Reason being a real lack of players in their prime due to the 2008-12 drafts being so bad for them.

They do have a lot of promising youth on their list, but as those players start to move into their prime the older players like Murphy will retire. So it won’t be until a large chunk of that promising youth has moved into the 23-28 year old bracket that they’ll be potentially challenging for top 4.

Lot of water to go under the bridge, but if all those high draft picks do fulfill their potential, the Blues are well placed for an extended period of success.
 
AndyLucimitis said:
The way these predictions threads usually work:

My Team - with off-season recruitment and natural growth and improvement in our young players will improve markedly on last year.

All Other Teams - can't see any change. All other 17 teams will finish in the exact same place or lower.
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Add one token ‘riser’ to make you seem unbiased and one or two ‘fallers’ to get the bites
 

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TooBlue14 said:
Simpson past his prime?? Have a laugh. He's apparently our only elite player on our list according to champion data. Teams are still tagging him in games.
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How dare I suggest a player who will be 35 next year is past his prime? Champion data's stats (or perhaps how they evaluate their stats) is pretty subjective and I'm sure you agree given Cripps didn't make it into the elite category. Anyway Simpson playing at his standard consistent level has never correlated with wins for Carlton. Isn't he 3rd on the all time loss record going into next season? As for him getting tagged - well I guess the defensive forward each team seems to have has to play on someone. Who else do Carlton have that was playing in 2018?
 
blitzer said:
Their improvement is entirely predicated on young players improving. Could go either way.
I certainly can't point to other lists and say that Carlton is much stronger than anyone. You can say they have more potential but in terms of actual expected performance in 2019, its a lot of unproven or developing young players that probably aren't ready to shoulder the load for an entire year of AFL. These players are generally backed up by players past their primes eg Murphy, Kreuzer, Simpson, Curnow etc.

I'd predict 18th and 3-4 wins.
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It's their KPPs on both sides of the ground that can cause them to springboard up the ladder. They're all entering their early twenties at once, which is when the big jumps in form for KPPs happen. It can surprise you (like in 2007 when Roughead and Franklin came on at the same time, going from kicking 12 and 31 goals in 2006, to 40 and 73 in 2007, basically showing you how big a jump it can be). That's what could very well happen with Curnow and McKay, and they could have McGovern firing (assuming he can get on the park) on top of that. I feel Weitering has been undeservedly forgotten, as well - because he's 21 next season and poised to start making huge jumps. For their midfield, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Zac Fisher are about to come of age, too.

You can see it all coming together really in 2021 (that'll be coming into their peak):

Midfield
Inside Brigade: Cripps (26), O'Brien (22), Stocker (21), Walsh (21)
Outside Brigade: Petrevski-Seton (23), Fisher (23), Setterfield (23), Dow (22)
Old Brigade: Ed Curnow (32), ... Dale Thomas (34) and Marc Murphy (34) might still be around

Forward
Tall: Casboult (30), Curnow (24), McKay (24)
Small: Fasolo (29), Garlett (25)
Medium: McGovern (27)

Back
Tall: Jones (30), Weitering (24), Marchbank (25)
Small: Docherty (28), Plowman (27)
Probably retired: Kade Simpson (37)

Ruck
Kreuzer (32), Lobbe (32), Phillips (30)

From the above, they need to grab small forwards and ruckman to be ready for that peak. All of their ruckman are so injury prone it's not funny. Will have to seriously start looking into Free Agents to fix that, because it's too late to draft them in time. Small forwards are pretty easy, comparatively. But it's definitely something they have to look at as Fasolo could be a bust due to poor work ethic and Garlett is only one man. It's possible someone else on their list will develop into a good small forward, though. To a lesser degree, they probably want to look at grabbing a couple small defenders, too, but that's something that's easy to find, too. Small forwards and defenders are sprinkled everywhere in a draft, and are cheap to trade for. It's also common as hell to see speedy outside mids (that Carlton have an abundance of) be turned into run-out defenders.

Those are my thoughts, anyway. Carlton are very much on the cusp of going up.
 
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If they got a Dom Tyson/Anthony Miles/Jarryd Lyons in the trade period I think they could do a fair bit of damage. Guys like Fisher and SPS are genuine footy players who could go to even higher levels as long as they don’t have to run through the centre square while their bodies are still maturing. Dow wasn’t ready for AFL footy last season and was thrust in but he’ll be better for the course IMO and hit 400+ touches this season.

Once they can get that inside midfield group functioning at an average level they’re not a bad side at all. It’s just hard for guys with clear talent such as Garlett, Pickett, SPS to influence matches if the team is 18th in inside fifties.

I think they’ll have a solid season and go close to breaking even after the bye rounds with wins and losses. There will be games where Dow and Walsh actually play as elite midfield talents to take pressure off Cripps. Counter attacking wise the team has a fair bit of potential with Curnow having that Jenkins like tank, and O’Brien/Fisher/SPS spreading play after pinpoint plays are setup by the best rebounding defender in the AFL in Docherty.

Definitely think that it will be another tough season as Bolton really has to stamp an identity on this side next season instead of faltering. With Docherty Simpson and now Thomas stationed in the back fifty they can always go back to stacking the defensive fifty with Weitering Plowman Marchbank Jones Williamson etc. and trying to hit teams on the break but that’s not really a style that will help nurture their forwards. This team needs to start winning midfield battles and locking it inside fifty so the likes of Pickett, Garlett, Silvagni, McKay, can progress to being more than 25-30 goal forwards that the likes of Casbiult and Wright topped out as.

I don’t think they’ll get more than 7 wins but that’s because the competition is so even next season. 2 of Dow, Walsh, Kennedy getting 400 contested possessions between them, the team getting to 50 inside fifties more often than not, and 100 from Curnow/McKay/McGovern major success IMO even if they only win 5-6 games like Brisbane did this season.

Gold Coast though, my goodness. They could go 0-11 to start the season. Their list isn’t as bad as people make it out to be but Collins/Corbett/Lukosius/Rankine/Burgess/Miles will probably all be debutants round one. The midfield has to establish some chemistry. The forward line has basically none, even 2 meter peter has minimal continuity at AFL level. Will be a lot of trialling and error for the team, and I can’t see it winning AFL games until after the bye rounds. I don’t think Miles/Brodie/Swalloe/Touk fit into one midfield either.
 
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blitzer said:
How dare I suggest a player who will be 35 next year is past his prime? Champion data's stats (or perhaps how they evaluate their stats) is pretty subjective and I'm sure you agree given Cripps didn't make it into the elite category. Anyway Simpson playing at his standard consistent level has never correlated with wins for Carlton. Isn't he 3rd on the all time loss record going into next season? As for him getting tagged - well I guess the defensive forward each team seems to have has to play on someone. Who else do Carlton have that was playing in 2018?
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Ignoring Champion Data (I agree, it's a poor reference), Kade Simpson hasn't exactly dropped in form despite being 34 years old. For instance, he averaged just over 26 disposals, 5 marks, and 2 tackles in 2018, and most will agree he passed the 'eye test'. His disposal count for this year was actually his second highest total for his career, and he hasn't played less than 20 games a season since 2012 (19 games), 15 games in 2005 before that, showcasing his remarkable durability. Lachie Whitfield averaged just over 26 disposals, 6 marks, and 3 tackles in 2018, and was named All-Australian in 2018 on the half-back flank, so Simpson in comparison is still in the mix as one of the best exiting men in defence, at least compared to younger players playing the same role, obviously.

It's like saying Corey Enright was past his prime in 2016, really. He might've been 35 and forced by the powers that be to retire, but I doubt any Geelong supporter would say he was past it.
 
jackenny said:
It's their KPPs on both sides of the ground that can cause them to springboard up the ladder. They're all entering their early twenties at once, which is when the big jumps in form for KPPs happen. It can surprise you (like in 2007 when Roughead and Franklin came on at the same time, going from kicking 12 and 31 goals in 2006, to 40 and 73 in 2007, basically showing you how big a jump it can be). That's what could very well happen with Curnow and McKay, and they could have McGovern firing (assuming he can get on the park) on top of that. I feel Weitering has been undeservedly forgotten, as well - because he's 21 next season and poised to start making huge jumps. For their midfield, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Zac Fisher are about to come of age, too.

You can see it all coming together really in 2021 (that'll be coming into their peak):

Midfield
Inside Brigade: Cripps (26), O'Brien (22), Stocker (21), Walsh (21)
Outside Brigade: Petrevski-Seton (23), Fisher (23), Setterfield (23), Dow (22)
Old Brigade: Ed Curnow (32), ... Dale Thomas (34) and Marc Murphy (34) might still be around

Forward
Tall: Casboult (30), Curnow (24), McKay (24)
Small: Fasolo (29), Garlett (25)
Medium: McGovern (27)

Back
Tall: Jones (30), Weitering (24), Marchbank (25)
Small: Docherty (28), Plowman (27)
Probably retired: Kade Simpson (37)

Ruck
Kreuzer (32), Lobbe (32), Phillips (30)

From the above, they need to grab small forwards and ruckman to be ready for that peak. All of their ruckman are so injury prone it's not funny. Will have to seriously start looking into Free Agents to fix that, because it's too late to draft them in time. Small forwards are pretty easy, comparatively. But it's definitely something they have to look at as Fasolo could be a bust due to poor work ethic and Garlett is only one man. It's possible someone else on their list will develop into a good small forward, though. To a lesser degree, they probably want to look at grabbing a couple small defenders, too, but that's something that's easy to find, too. Small forwards and defenders are sprinkled everywhere in a draft, and are cheap to trade for. It's also common as hell to see speedy outside mids (that Carlton have an abundance of) be turned into run-out defenders.

Those are my thoughts, anyway. Carlton are very much on the cusp of going up.
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By 2021, sure they might have got their crap together. But this thread is all about 2019 (mostly because they traded away their first pick). I don't think you can ever really bank on 1st or 2nd year players improving a side. League wide there is only a few guys that are true game changers that early in their career. Even guys that have promising first years very regularly have an average 2nd year (or at least no better than their first and with less fanfare because expectations). McKay, Weitering and SPS would be 3 they would be hoping for improvement from in 2019 and actually have enough maturity.
 
blitzer said:
By 2021, sure they might have got their crap together. But this thread is all about 2019 (mostly because they traded away their first pick). I don't think you can ever really bank on 1st or 2nd year players improving a side. League wide there is only a few guys that are true game changers that early in their career. Even guys that have promising first years very regularly have an average 2nd year (or at least no better than their first and with less fanfare because expectations). McKay, Weitering and SPS would be 3 they would be hoping for improvement from in 2019 and actually have enough maturity.
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Honestly, I think the injuries they had in 2018 has caused a recency bias and people forget that it was only in 2017 that Murphy won their Best and Fairest and had a pretty dominant year (averaging like 30 disposals per game), Kreuzer who missed out on a chunk of games in 2018 made the AA squad in 2017, and Docherty who completely missed out on 2018 was AA on the HBF in 2017. I can understand why they went about addressing this by getting Andrew Russell, because they're very much going to improve if they can get the above three on the park next year.

Their midfield is probably going to still be bog average for a little longer, though. Patrick Cripps, Marc Murphy, and Ed Curnow are all the mature-aged players they have in this area, and the only ones in the right age bracket to improve next year to more than "bit-players" in the midfield are SPS and Zac Fisher who will both be 21 in 2019. Will Setterfield is a mystery, really. Dow and O'Brien will either start looking like AFL footballers next year, too; or they will have the dreaded second year blues and look like they're going backwards (like SPS did this year). Dale Thomas is really just okay depth at this stage of his career, but he's Top 22 because Carlton's midfield depth beyond all those already mentioned are made up of guys who'll likely be delisted by 2021. And I agree, Walsh and Stocker aren't likely to pull off a Judd and have immediate impact, although I imagine Walsh will get game time (and is probably better depth than some of the other midfielders on their list), or at least should as the #1 draft pick.

My biggest reservations are actually on Bolton as a coach. I'm almost convinced he's the worst gameday coach in the AFL (tactically), bad enough I rate Alan Richardson as streets ahead (to be fair, Richardson is a pretty astute tactician, he just sucks as a communicator, which is the opposite problem that Bolton has as a coach - being an excellent communicator and horrible tactician).
 
They're terrible, some good mids but that's it.
If Bolton survives this year I'll be surprised.
They went from bad in 2015...to bad in 2016...to terrible in 2017....to utter pathetic in 2018
 
Step back to go forward year for the Blues imo. Still convulsing with list overhaul.

they'll play their GF in Round 1, Q1, and peddle hope/youth like mad, fair enough.

In the meantime they'll continue the 'we're too proud but if you really think so' game in the media re. priority pick.

But onfield they go backwards for mine, and will have PP in their clutches at seasons end (the prime facie bizarre Adelaide/Stocker deal made to get this over the line, smart cookies)

Look for improved ladder position in 2020-2021.
 

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It really depends on how bad the Gold Coast are, but Carlton will finish bottom two.

St Kilda are just slightly more competitive than Carlton, while the additions of Hogan and Lobb immediately result in Fremantle being a couple of tiers above Carlton.
 
Brighton_Diggins said:
anywhere between 10th and 18th. I'm in total agreeance with juddy in his opinion that 90% of the game is between the ears. If we can snag a couple of early wins and stay in one piece on the injury front then I think we may see a new Carlton starting to take shape.

Also, If Andrew Russell is the fitness messiah he's claimed to be that will have a big impact. David teague will also have a significant role to play. I think we will surprise a few sides early/mid way in the season but then possibly fall away.
But as stated, confidence is a funny thing. If things start to work and plans click into gear ....who knows.

It may not be apples with oranges but I keep reminding myself of the pies this year. They really surprised me and Buckley went from zero to hero in a very short space of time. I think we can possibly be that side next year.

yada yada yada....14th.
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I agree.
I also think next year is very hard to read for the Blues. I think the best clue will be how to react to their first win. If they take belief and improve their performance then a good year is possible.

To me the most disappointing thing about the Blues last year is they failed to take anything from the win against the Bombers. I get continuity being a huge issue in a team trying to rise though.

Like GC failing to carry on from their great win against the Swans, they aren't good signs, at least in the short term.
 
TooBlue14 said:
So Melb 2012? So 16th and 4 wins. I’d say we could easily have a melb 2016 kind of rise as early as 2019 and 10 wins. But I’ve predicted 8 on my ladder predictor.

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You're in for disappointment then, we had more talent on the list and actually had a gameplan and went from 2 wins to 4 wins. There's no way in hell Carlton go from 2 wins to 8 in a season especially with how far off the mark they looked in 2018.

It's still going to take time.
 
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