Where will Geelong finish in 2011?

How will Geelong go next year?

  • Top 4 and seriously contend

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Top 4 and get easily bundled out (ie WB this year)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 5-8 and do some damage

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 5-8 and go down easily (ie Bombers 09, Hawks 10)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 9-13th (just outside)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 14-17th (bottom 4)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
  • Poll closed .
Joined
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Thread starter #1
I'm predicting a Brisbane 05/West Coast 08 type collapse.

Lost Ablett
Perhaps losing Bomber Thompson
Looking like they will lose Milburn and Rooke

Already slowing down without these losses.

Their midfield of Bartel, Selwood, Ling, Chapman and maybe Corey still looks decent but Corey has struggled lately and the other 3 will cop a lot of attention.

Another year older for Scarlett, Mooney and Ottens.


I reckon they'll finish 9th-13th but may sneak into the 5th-8th spot.
 

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The Emu

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#2
5th-13th, you basically gave yourself a 2/3 chance of being correct. Considering 14-17th is VERY unlikely. They will finish between 3rd and 6th.
 

maximus steel

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#7
Still got Selwood, Chapman, Bartel, Johnson, Scarlett, Taylor, Enright....
My tip is 3rd-6th depending on improvement of clubs like Fremantle, Hawthorn, Carlton.
 

carntheroos4eva

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#8
I don't want to upset the Geelong fans as they have had a huge week already.

I reckon to be fair you guys will finish in the 8 but it won't be top 4.
 

Catsace

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#11
Looking at how bad the 8th and 9th teams have been in 2009-2010 i cannot see how we'll miss the 8, even with the loss of Ablett.

It took Hawthorn a painful run of 4 losses in a row in 2009 to eliminate themselves from finals contention with a 9-12-1 record, and North just missed out this year with 11-11 and a terrible percentage as they won against the weaker teams and generally were thrashed by the top sides. Even in 2006, where Geelong was lampooned by all and sundry to have had a terrible year, we did finish 10-11-1 and that is knocking on the door of the 8.

A new coach usually revitalises a side, and Geelong have several young eager players to bring in which can add pace to a side that still boasts considerable mature talent. Bartel, Selwood, Taylor, Scarlett, Enright, S.Johnson (if fully fit), Varcoe and Kelly make a pretty classy core, and surely this would be good enough to make at least top 5. To be honest the Dogs and even the Saints have windows that are open no more wide than Geelong's is, they will be pressing to maintain the rage and stay at the top of the tree as well.

Hawthorn, Carlton and Freo stand to be the sides that should step up in 2011, and maybe even the Demons, although there is a quantum leap from promise to delivery, as they may find.
 

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Big Bad Buddy

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#12
Geelong will still feature up high in the rankings, minus the loss of Ablett, they really haven't lost anyone else that is a quality player (yet), and they have several stars in the midfield and all over the ground.

The loss of Ablett, leaves a spot open for a young kid to make his way into the side and develop confidence and build skill i.e Christensen, Menzel, Motlop etc.

Anywhere from fourth to eighth IMO.

Geelong's worse problem is their talls; Mooney, Ottens, Milburn, Scarlett - all reaching the end of their careers in the next 1-2 years.

Blake and West(?) reportable wanting to leave the club in search of greater opportunities, all those talls on the outer isn't a good sign for Geelong.
 

STC

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#14
Ling & Ottens are done.

Milburn, Scarlett, Mooney & Joel Corey almost done.

Ablett gone.

They won't make the 8.
Given that we were a free kick away from a Grand Final and finished only half a game behind Collingwood (with a superior percentage), I somehow doubt that losing Ablett is going to push us outside the 8. If they are done, then we will only benefit from replacing them. Given we did so well with them all so far below their best...
 

The Panther

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#15
Given that we were a free kick away from a Grand Final and finished only half a game behind Collingwood (with a superior percentage)
You were more than a freekick away from the GF. As that stands, making the GF this year has little bearing on next year.

Brisbane made the GF in 04 & fell off the perch a year later. You're done.
 

STC

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#17
You were more than a freekick away from the GF. As that stands, making the GF this year has little bearing on next year.

Brisbane made the GF in 04 & fell off the perch a year later. You're done.
Had the Mooney free kick not occurred, Ling kicks the winning goal, we beat St Kilda and play the Bulldogs who we'd beaten by 101 points a few weeks earlier in the prelim. I think it's safe to say we would have beaten them again.

Like I said, if we were that close to a GF, I fail to see how we drop out of the top 8 just by losing players who, in your own words, are done and all had bad finals series. Brisbane may have capitulated but I just don't think we will. I'm glad you're confident though.
 

Higs

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#18
Had the Mooney free kick not occurred, Ling kicks the winning goal, we beat St Kilda and play the Bulldogs who we'd beaten by 101 points a few weeks earlier in the prelim. I think it's safe to say we would have beaten them again.

Like I said, if we were that close to a GF, I fail to see how we drop out of the top 8 just by losing players who, in your own words, are done and all had bad finals series. Brisbane may have capitulated but I just don't think we will. I'm glad you're confident though.
I was about to write something similar, one contentious umpiring decision going the other way and suddenly you make a GF, possibly win a premiership and people are writing you in for top 4 again.

IMO the loss of Ablett will hurt but not as much as everyone thinks and Geelong are still a bloody good side even if some players are starting to reach their twilight. 3rd - 5th
 
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#19
Had the Mooney free kick not occurred, Ling kicks the winning goal, we beat St Kilda and play the Bulldogs who we'd beaten by 101 points a few weeks earlier in the prelim. I think it's safe to say we would have beaten them again.

Like I said, if we were that close to a GF, I fail to see how we drop out of the top 8 just by losing players who, in your own words, are done and all had bad finals series. Brisbane may have capitulated but I just don't think we will. I'm glad you're confident though.
Why bother responding to it?
 

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Moderator #20
I reckon 5-8 with the capacity to inflict some damage in the finals. My reasons:

(1) Geelong fielded the oldest teams in the league this year, followed by the Bulldogs and St. Kilda*. The core of their side will be 26-31 next year which means they will make the finals. They are a hardened veteran unit.

(2) Unfortunately for them they have lost their star player in his prime (at least that gives them salary cap relief). A fair chunk of Ablett's 700+ possessions may have been cheap, but his 44 goals will be harder to replace.

(3) Their best young players are Selwood, Varcoe and Taylor (all A grade). Hogan and Duncan look promising but Hawkins hasn't lived up to expectations and can be a liability against good opposition. Podsiadly dominated at KP & Docklands but struggled on the other grounds and won't get any better. I haven't seen much of their newest players (Laidler, Menzel, etc).

(4) Mooney, Scarlett and Ottens are over 30. Depth in ruck and key positions looks thin. Replacing these blokes will be difficult.

*Average age of the most recent Geelong side: 27y, 210d. Bulldogs: 26y, 352d. St. Kilda: 26y, 190d.
 

donbooger

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#21
We nearly fished top this year.

Losing Ablett is significant, but not enough to drop out of the top 3 teams and into the rest of you rabble.

I would expect something similar to this year in the finals, underdogs against Saints and Pies but clean up anyone else.

In 2012 we will be start to stuggle with the home & away season though.
 
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#24
Geelong finished 2nd on the ladder. To not finish top 4 that means 3 teams will have to "surpass" them.

St. Kilda aren't improving
Bulldogs going backwards
Sydney could
Freo should (9 home wins + 5/6 away wins)
Hawthorn could

Individually, each of those clubs could think they'd have good odds at surpassing Geelong. Collectively I'd say only 2 will go better than Geelong (so they finish 4th). Not everyone meets their expectations (Then again, Geelong could make me look real bad by completely dropping off next season, but I doubt it)
 
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