Strategy Where Will Our Goals Come From In 2015 ?

[LordLucifer]

Since 2000, the average AFL score has shrunk continuously, from more than 15 goals per team per game to barely 12.5 now. This is despite constant improvement in conditions at all grounds, and from 2001 the utility of a ground, now called Etihad Stadium, where conditions don't matter at all.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...e-have-all-the-goals-gone-20140716-ztrb0.html

If we take those stats by Greg Baum as gospel, then all we need to do in 2015 to win a large percentage of our matches is kick 15-goals per game. This equates to an overall tally of 330 goals being needed for the whole season to achieve those results.

Bearing in mind we have made some dramatic changes to the playing list, who is going to kick how many next year to get us to 330 ??

Jones - 40
Casboult - 25
Menzel - 35
Walker - 20
Mids - 30

 

[HARKER]

If Henderson is fit, I'd have him at the top of that tree.

Gibbs should start adding to his tally along with Murphy who had a pretty lean year kicking goals.
Yarran is always good for at least 20 also.

 

[LordLucifer]

If Henderson is fit, I'd have him at the top of that tree.

How many then ??

Can you list where the goals will come from individually or collectively to get us up to 330 ??

 

[HARKER]

How many then ??

Can you list where the goals will come from individually or collectively to get us up to 330 ??

You wouldn't put him down for at least 20? Kicked 17 on one leg this year.

Who can realistically estimate where to goals will come from at this stage?

For all we know, Rowe may be thrown forward and become our leading goal-kicker.

 

[LordLucifer]

You wouldn't put him down for at least 20? Kicked 17 on one leg this year.

Who can realistically estimate where to goals will come from at this stage?

For all we know, Rowe may be thrown forward and become our leading goal-kicker.

Not sure whether Henderson will be a forward or a defender next year, if he plays forward you'd have to expect 35-40 from him but gee, with the addition of another couple of potential forwards, its anyone's guess where they will all play.

 

[HARKER]

Not sure whether Henderson will be a forward or a defender next year, if he plays forward you'd have to expect 35-40 from him but gee, with the addition of another couple of potential forwards, its anyone's guess where they will all play.

Henderson will settle forward and no need for Rowe to go anywhere but to get stronger and be our brute down back.

Goals? It's just too hard to say as we haven't even settled our line-up yet.

 

[thylacine60]

Have said for 20 years that kicking 100 points puts you well on the way to winning. Would love to know the % of teams that lose a match after kicking 15-17 goals.

 

[LordLucifer]

Have said for 20 years that kicking 100 points puts you well on the way to winning. Would love to know the % of teams that lose a match after kicking 15-17 goals.

Normally 20-goals per game and you would win just about every week, however, the average score per game has dropped quite dramatically to 12.5.

Therefore, the benchmark I'm putting out there is 15 per game as it would appear to be the scoreline that would win you way more matches than you'd lose.

330 goals is a heap to find especially if it is spread across the whole list, naturally there will be certain players who will shoulder a large proportion of the booty but I'm not sure where all of it will come from.

 

[thylacine60]

Does a good job by your defence come into it?

 

[LordLucifer]

Does a good job by your defence come into it?

Has a huge impact on the match for sure but if you look purely at the numbers, 330 should be the overall target for the season.

 

[Blueboiiz]

*May have just substituted Jarrad Waite for Liam Jones.

 

[LordLucifer]

View attachment 88279
*May have just substituted Jarrad Waite for Liam Jones.

Still 60-goals short too !!

 

[Cringle]

If he plays more than 10 games... Watson.

But other than that It'll be out of Henderson and Menzel.

 

[Faz 2000]

Still 60-goals short too !!

Which may well be an accurate prediction...

I feel like it's Hendo time. We need it to be Hendo time. Can he play forward all year, hold down CHF, play 20+ games and kick 45-50? To do that he needs to kick 1-2 in quieter weeks and grab a few handfuls along the way.

Levi can and should do better than a goal per game, and if Jones is going to play he's going to need to go at 2 goals/game, I think. Can't expect much more from Gibbs, Murph, Yarran collectively. Expecting Menz to go nuts is probably hoping for too much, but I think he's good for 30-35.

 

[dumb]

even once you write all the names down, they still have to play some sort of proper role to get the most out of themselves.
walker has proved he can kick 50+ in a year, but has spent some time away from the forward line. i would nominate him as the nominal FF (lead-up/sit on his head).
one/two of watson/jones/casboult alongside out of the square, when they aren't with henderson pushing up the ground.
+ menzel. i half expect us to try and manufacture a forward pocket from someone like armfield - all of garlett's pace, but without the scaredness, or goal sense for that matter.

we're not short of options, but the problem is they're not exactly proven performers. henderson might be talented but we can't bank on him kicking a score just yet.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

This year Carlton scored from 49.8% of inside 50s, 4th in the comp. Only North, Hawthorn & Geelong's forward line were more dangerous.
This could drop off with the changes, but Waite & Garlett really just played cameo roles this year anyway

 

[ShanDog]

Possible ways we can get to that 330 goal mark:

Hendo - 45
Menzel - 30
Cas - 25
Jones - 25
Yarran - 25
Walker - 25
Gibbs - 20
Judd - 20
Kreuzer - 20
Everitt - 15
Thomas - 15
Bell - 15
Murphy - 15
Docherty - 10
Tuohy - 5
Simpson - 5
Misc others - 15 (any and all who bob up and kick a goal throughout the season)

Few notes on this though - Hendo needs to have a big year, and significant improvement for Casboult too. Cas only kicked the 15 for 2014, but it wouldn't be TOO outrageous to see him go from that to 25.

Having some other targets with him, Jones should be able to kick 25; he managed 22 with the Dogs in 2013.

I'm also making the assumption that Kreuzer, Walker and Judd all spend a decent amount of time up forward for the year too.

Most of the other major goalkickers I have put down as adding a couple to their previous year's tally, so not much of a stretch, but I guess it's statistically doubtful they will ALL improve their output!

Realistically? I think we will struggle to kick 330 goals for the year. Our permanent forwards will all need to have career-best years, which is highly likely, but I don't know if they will kick enough between them to carry the team to 330.

 

[LordLucifer]

Realistically? I think we will struggle to kick 330 goals for the year. Our permanent forwards will all need to have career-best years, which is highly likely, but I don't know if they will kick enough between them to carry the team to 330.

Fair comment but it also raises another concern, we won 7 games last year which means we will need to win at least 5 more in 2015 to seriously challenge for a spot in the eight.

If we are of the opinion that kicking 330 goals is beyond us, then how will we score heavily enough to win those extra games or are we going to pin our hopes on the defence holding the opposition for the best part ??

 

[Blue By Blood]

Fair comment but it also raises another concern, we won 7 games last year which means we will need to win at least 5 more in 2015 to seriously challenge for a spot in the eight.

If we are of the opinion that kicking 330 goals is beyond us, then how will we score heavily enough to win those extra games or are we going to pin our hopes on the defence holding the opposition for the best part ??

You just need to score more than the opposition on the day. We lost a heap of tight ones last year, so if we can play with more poise in the dying minutes of matches then I can't see why we wouldn't push for the finals.

 

[kingkingston]

our players

 

[LordLucifer]

You just need to score more than the opposition on the day. We lost a heap of tight ones last year, so if we can play with more poise in the dying minutes of matches then I can't see why we wouldn't push for the finals.

Yes, that is an outstanding observation hence the reason why I'm asking about where our goals are going to come from.

As far as the tight ones are concerned, that may be a little easier said than done though.

 

[El Topo]

Fair comment but it also raises another concern, we won 7 games last year which means we will need to win at least 5 more in 2015 to seriously challenge for a spot in the eight.

If we are of the opinion that kicking 330 goals is beyond us, then how will we score heavily enough to win those extra games or are we going to pin our hopes on the defence holding the opposition for the best part ??

I don't think it's too much of a stretch to think that we can turns 2014's close losses into 2015's close wins. Factor in an actual pre-season for most of the list, another year's experience under MM, better balance across the field, the purging of negative/inconsistent elements from the playing group and the natural progression most of the boys, and all of a sudden we look much more threatening.

 

[Azul]

Stats that actually matter:

tackles: 18th
Mark Whiley: 5.5/game (2nd after Carrazzo)
*Jason Tutt: 4.6

Get some guys in that actually put pressure on the opposition and you'll stem the flow of goals conceded.

 

[Blue By Blood]

Yes, that is an outstanding observation hence the reason why I'm asking about where our goals are going to come from.

As far as the tight ones are concerned, that may be a little easier said than done though.

Yep, fair call. I think a fit Hendo could be in for a big year, but unlike the teams with a genuine star power forward, our forward line will be unpredictable (almost as unpredictable as Levi's kicking). I am genuinely bullish about our midfield kicking more goals this year. Gibbs should continue to improve, Murphy should become more of a goal kicking mid if he has a full pre-season, and we have more options to run through there now so some can push forward and get goals.

We need break-out years from Casboult and Jones and hope that Walker can play mainly up forward and contribute 30-40 goals. I agree about losing all those close games. Our lack of polish and panicking in the dying minutes was painful to watch.

 

[slashin_velvet]

*May have just substituted Jarrad Waite for Liam Jones.

Failed to mention the sneaky inclusion of tom boyd too