Strategy Where Will Our Goals Come From In 2015 ?

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There's some very low expectations here. Menzel jsut 25 goals? The forward coach should be pushing these guys in 2015 to get hungry and target 2 goals a game minimum.


Why does everyone here seem happy to accept a mediocre return for each of our forwards? Menzel on roughly 1 goal a game? Hendo penciled in for just 30? I'd seriously be hoping the forward coaches are setting two goal minimums for Menzel and Walker and the expectation that Jones and Hendo kick 50+ should both play the whole year forward. Kruezer on 30 would be about right considering is rucking job. If Thomas plays forward as well then his number should be 45+ especially as he's now 12 months into recovery and should have a full pre-season. If our coaches are not putting these expectations in place then we can expect another year near the bottom of the ladder. Expectation needs to be lifted.
On Menzel, I expect him to spend more time in the middle this year so I reckon avg a little over a goal a game would be a good result. Pointless having expectations on walker and Hendo to kick 50+ when it's really a fanciful dream.
 

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On Menzel, I expect him to spend more time in the middle this year so I reckon avg a little over a goal a game would be a good result. Pointless having expectations on walker and Hendo to kick 50+ when it's really a fanciful dream.
Honestly, I hope Menz doesn't spend more than 30% time on field in the middle. He is too good around goal.
 
Honestly, I hope Menz doesn't spend more than 30% time on field in the middle. He is too good around goal.
So is Nathan Fyfe and Patrick Dangerfield, they would be wasted playing forward pocket. If Menzel has a massive pre season I would hope he becomes a regular on the wing playing as a goal kicking midfielder.
 
Saw Kruzer a few times in Noosa. He is looking lean, too lean for ruck work. I have a feeling they will try him up forward again. Also saw Waite and Hendo surfing but now I'm just bragging ;)
 
It was always spoken that Kruezar could play a ruck rover role like NicNat I never saw it as I didn't think he covered the ground well enough and wasn't quick enough, but perhaps him trimming down is all about trying to fix that.
 
As a ruck rover Kreuzer is miles down the pecking order, far too many ahead of him. Good at it for a ruckman but not for a genuine onballer. He's a ruckman and nothing else. It would be good if he could impact in the forward line but that is yet to be seen.
 
As a ruck rover Kreuzer is miles down the pecking order, far too many ahead of him. Good at it for a ruckman but not for a genuine onballer. He's a ruckman and nothing else. It would be good if he could impact in the forward line but that is yet to be seen.
Kruez and Krippz to play as rotating ruckman/midfielders, a la Cox et Nat.
 
Looking at the most goals players have kicked over the last 3 seasons I got us to 242 goals but i can see us making up the other 88 with improvement.

Forwards-
Henderson 28
Menzel 26
Jones 22
Walker 16
Casboult 15
Kreuzer 10

If each of our forwards can add 10 goals that will give us another 60 goals. I think you can make a case for all 6 to improve.

Between murphy, Simpson, Gibbs, yarran, judd, Everitt and Thomas I think they can kick 125 goals.
 
330 Goals (280)

L. Henderson (51)
L. Casboult (34)
L. Jones (32)

T. Menzel (30)
A. Walker (25)

D. Thomas (22)
B. Gibbs (19)
M. Murphy (17)
C. Judd (14)
M. Kreuzer (13)

K. Jaksch (12)
M. Watson (11)

That's a pretty conservative guesstimation.
That's 280 goals from 12 players.

Which means over 22 games we need to find 50 goals from the rest of our team. Which is only a little over two a game. And that includes players like Everitt, Tutt/Saad?, White, Simpson, Docherty, Buckley who all easily find the goals.

I think it comes down to our big 3 forwards. Henderson, Casboult and Jones have to kick around 120 between them. Menzel will kick 30+ if he plays every game, that is obvious. Murphy, Gibbs Thomas and jUdd are all proven goal scorers. Jaksch/Watson will get a few opportunities up forward and kick a few braces. A. Walker is a big one, if he plays forward - we need goals from him. If he doesn't play forward, we'll need to find 20+ goals form a small forward like Tutt/Ellard.
 

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Don't have to pay him 800k either (or come up with any lucrative 3rd party deals). Worked out well

No, I'm serious against GWS in Canberra I think he kicked 3 goals including 2 in the last quarter from outside 50 that sealed the game. Liam Jones was under utilised by the Dogs IMO. Maybe with Carlton with Casboult and Henderson around him he'll be allot better.
 
No, I'm serious against GWS in Canberra I think he kicked 3 goals including 2 in the last quarter from outside 50 that sealed the game. Liam Jones was under utilised by the Dogs IMO. Maybe with Carlton with Casboult and Henderson around him he'll be allot better.
That's what we are hoping! Time will tell.
 
No, I'm serious against GWS in Canberra I think he kicked 3 goals including 2 in the last quarter from outside 50 that sealed the game. Liam Jones was under utilised by the Dogs IMO. Maybe with Carlton with Casboult and Henderson around him he'll be allot better.
Ah fair enough, he can look good at times. Had a great game against the Pies I believe.
It'll be interesting to see how he goes, just hitting the right age & playing in a different forwardline.
 
Ah fair enough, he can look good at times. Had a great game against the Pies I believe.
It'll be interesting to see how he goes, just hitting the right age & playing in a different forwardline.

He ran down Clinton Young that game
 
330 Goals (280)

L. Henderson (51)
L. Casboult (34)
L. Jones (32)

T. Menzel (30)
A. Walker (25)

D. Thomas (22)
B. Gibbs (19)
M. Murphy (17)
C. Judd (14)
M. Kreuzer (13)

K. Jaksch (12)
M. Watson (11)

That's a pretty conservative guesstimation.
That's 280 goals from 12 players.

Which means over 22 games we need to find 50 goals from the rest of our team. Which is only a little over two a game. And that includes players like Everitt, Tutt/Saad?, White, Simpson, Docherty, Buckley who all easily find the goals.

I think it comes down to our big 3 forwards. Henderson, Casboult and Jones have to kick around 120 between them. Menzel will kick 30+ if he plays every game, that is obvious. Murphy, Gibbs Thomas and jUdd are all proven goal scorers. Jaksch/Watson will get a few opportunities up forward and kick a few braces. A. Walker is a big one, if he plays forward - we need goals from him. If he doesn't play forward, we'll need to find 20+ goals form a small forward like Tutt/Ellard.

Just thought I throw in some stats from a bunch of premiership seasons (3 flags in 4 years) from best dozen goal kickers. Games mentioned for guys less than 20 games in season.

1979 season
Ken Sheldon 53 goals
Mark Maclure 45 goals
Mike Fitzpatrick 36 goals
Rod Galt 36 goals from 14 games
Alex Marcou 34 goals
Wayne Johnston 31 goals
Vin Catoggio 30 goals from 16 games
Wayne Harmes 25 goals
Barry Armstrong 22 goals
Jimmy Buckley 17 goals from 11 games
Percy Jones 14 goals from 18 games
Trevor Keogh 14 goals from 19 games
That's 367 goals from 12 players


1981 season

Peter Bosustow 59 goals
Rod Ashman 41 goals
Peter McConville 35 goals
Mark Maclure 29 goals
Alex Marcou 28 goals from 19 games
Wayn Johsnton 26 goals from 12 games
David McKay 24 goals from 15 games
Mike Fitzpatrick 17 goals
Greg Wells 13 goals
Wayne Hames 11 goals from 15 games
Ken Sheldon 10 goals from 13 games
Phil Maylin 10 goals
That's 303 goals from 12 players


1982 season

Ross Ditchburn 61 goals from 13 games (genuine full forward)
Peter Bosustow 47 goals
Rod Ashman 46 goals
Wayne Johnston 40 goals
Alex Marcou 33 goals
Mike Fitzpatrick 22 goals
David Clarke 21 goals from 9 games
Peter McConville 19 goals
Mark Maclure 18 goals from 12 games
Phil Maylin 17 goals
Jimmy Buckley 14 goals
Wayne Harmes 14 goals
That's 352 goals from 12 players

We need Kruuzer to be the Mike Fitzpatrick of this era as our ruckman and pinch in for around a goal or two a game.
We need Casboult to be something like the David McKay or Rod Galt type of this era.
We need Liam Jones to be as handy as Peter McConville marking type
We need Hendo to be the main key forward like Mark Maclure was in this premiership era
Importantly we need at very least one medium to small forward to bob up with 40 to 60 goals in season and Troy Menzel needs to be our new Peter Bosustow type doing the mercurial and one percenter things.
We need Marc Murphy to be a goal kicking roving type like Rod Ashman
Yarran to be the running goal kicking guy like Alex Marcou and we need Judd, Gibbs, Walker and Dale Thomas to be goal kicking mids or resting forwards like Johnston, Sheldon, Buckley, Harmes and Maylin were.
If we somehow develop 12 players that can kick over 300 goals between them we should be a regular finalist. Allow me to dream :)
 
Total Scoring Kicks Goals Goals / Behinds
Hawthorn Hawks 706 418 59%
Port Adelaide Power 701 362 52%
Sydney Swans 674 351 52%
North Melbourne Kangaroos 642 328 51%
Fremantle Dockers 591 318 54%
Adelaide Crows 600 315 53%
Geelong Cats 618 315 51%
West Coast Eagles 545 300 55%
Richmond Tigers 537 285 53%
Gold Coast Suns 527 278 53%
Carlton Blues 511 276 54%
Essendon Bombers 539 274 51%
Western Bulldogs 499 257 52%
GWS Giants 500 256 51%
Collingwood Magpies 506 252 50%
Brisbane Lions 427 221 52%
St Kilda Saints 420 212 50%
Melbourne Demons 386 190 49%


Top4 Average 680 364 54%
Carlton 511 276 54%
Diff 169 88


Apologies about formatting - I don't know how to post an excel spreadsheet

Stats show that Carlton needs to find another 90 goals to be in same class as top4 sides - that is roughly 4 goals per game. Assuming conversion ratio ( Goals/Behinds) stays around 54% - this means another 180 or so kicks at goal or close to 9 kicks at goal per game more than 2014 season - or 2 kicks at goal per quarter.
 
Saw Kruzer a few times in Noosa. He is looking lean, too lean for ruck work. I have a feeling they will try him up forward again. Also saw Waite and Hendo surfing but now I'm just bragging ;)

This is actually good to hear, big Kreuz has been too big since coming back from injury a while back, which seems partially responsible for his loss of mobility. Lean Kreuz is still bigger than most blokes and certainly still big enough to break some opposition ribs, hopefully this will help him reach something approaching his full potential.
 

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