Analysis Where will our goals come from?

Which players on the list can average one goal per game in season 2021?

  • Taberner

    Votes: 82 89.1%
  • Walters

    Votes: 66 71.7%
  • Fyfe

    Votes: 38 41.3%
  • Schultz

    Votes: 39 42.4%
  • Crowden

    Votes: 8 8.7%
  • Lobb

    Votes: 27 29.3%
  • Sturt

    Votes: 53 57.6%
  • Henry

    Votes: 19 20.7%
  • Frederick

    Votes: 9 9.8%
  • Switkowski

    Votes: 11 12.0%
  • Colyer

    Votes: 4 4.3%

  • Total voters
    92

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ilikepotatoes

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It's a tough question. Given recent list management decisions, we are in a precarious position when it comes to the forward line, so I thought I'd do a little digging as to what is required for a premiership winning forward line.

To determine the standard required, I've chosen the top 6 goalkickers from the last 5 premiers and calculated the average goals per game.

2020 - Richmond (TOG adjusted)
Lynch - 2.11
Riewoldt - 1.96
Martin - 1.38
Castagna 1.01
Bolton - 0.98
Rioli - 0.83

2019 - Richmond
Lynch - 2.52
Riewoldt - 1.85
Martin - 1.39
Castagna - 1.13
Caddy - 0.94
Lambert - 0.86

2018 - West Coast
Kennedy - 3.07
Darling - 2.29
Ryan - 1.54
Cripps - 1.52
Lecras - 1.39
Rioli 1.17

2017 - Richmond
Riewoldt - 2.35
Martin - 1.48
Butler - 1.30
Castagna - 1.04
Rioli - 1.00
Caddy - 0.96
* Townsend - 3.2 (Outlier of form)

2016 - Western Bulldogs (Bit of an outlier overall)
Stringer - 1.83
Dickson - 1.82
Smith - 1.38
Bontempelli - 1.00
McLean - 0.93
Boyd - 0.87
*Redpath - 2.00 (DNP)

So on average our forward line needs to consist of goalkickers that average...

2.38
1.88
1.40
1.14
1.05
0.94

Which is a total of 8.79 goals per game.

So where does our forward line sit amongst that?

2020 - Fremantle
Taberner - 2.27
Walters - 1.34
Fyfe - 0.89
Schultz - 0.88
Crowden - 0.75
Lobb - 0.74
* Hogan - 0.89 (Goneski and small sample size)
* Sturt - 1.67 (1st year player and small sample size)

So for us to have a premiership winning forward line we need effectively 5-6 players on the list averaging at least one goal a game, and we only currently have 2. So the question is, which players can do that next season?
 

Johnny Dalmas

Club Legend
Oct 16, 2015
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It's a tough question. Given recent list management decisions, we are in a precarious position when it comes to the forward line, so I thought I'd do a little digging as to what is required for a premiership winning forward line.

To determine the standard required, I've chosen the top 6 goalkickers from the last 5 premiers and calculated the average goals per game.

2020 - Richmond (TOG adjusted)
Lynch - 2.11
Riewoldt - 1.96
Martin - 1.38
Castagna 1.01
Bolton - 0.98
Rioli - 0.83

2019 - Richmond
Lynch - 2.52
Riewoldt - 1.85
Martin - 1.39
Castagna - 1.13
Caddy - 0.94
Lambert - 0.86

2018 - West Coast
Kennedy - 3.07
Darling - 2.29
Ryan - 1.54
Cripps - 1.52
Lecras - 1.39
Rioli 1.17

2017 - Richmond
Riewoldt - 2.35
Martin - 1.48
Butler - 1.30
Castagna - 1.04
Rioli - 1.00
Caddy - 0.96
* Townsend - 3.2 (Outlier of form)

2016 - Western Bulldogs (Bit of an outlier overall)
Stringer - 1.83
Dickson - 1.82
Smith - 1.38
Bontempelli - 1.00
McLean - 0.93
Boyd - 0.87
*Redpath - 2.00 (DNP)

So on average our forward line needs to consist of goalkickers that average...

2.38
1.88
1.40
1.14
1.05
0.94

Which is a total of 8.79 goals per game.

So where does our forward line sit amongst that?

2020 - Fremantle
Taberner - 2.27
Walters - 1.34
Fyfe - 0.89
Schultz - 0.88
Crowden - 0.75
Lobb - 0.74
* Hogan - 0.89 (Goneski and small sample size)
* Sturt - 1.67 (1st year player and small sample size)

So for us to have a premiership winning forward line we need effectively 5-6 players on the list averaging at least one goal a game, and we only currently have 2. So the question is, which players can do that next season?
Nice.

So for Lobb to really make it as a 2nd KPF, he needs to improve at least a full goal a game.

I dont think Fyfe will spend the majority of his time forward. But if he did, he could be a 1.2 - 1.8 goal a game forward.

Schultz & Crowden may get some increase in goals per game because they are still growing im their game.but that is going from0.8 to, say, 1.2 goals/game ... max.

Walters may bounce back up to 1.5-2.0 goals per game which is probs closer to his career average.

But there is quite a bit of work to do.
 

Schauermann

Norm Smith Medallist
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So for us to have a premiership winning forward line we need effectively 5-6 players on the list averaging at least one goal a game, and we only currently have 2. So the question is, which players can do that next season?
Harsh assessment. I was hoping with a few midfield goals (we had so few I can only see improvement) and our forwards getting more used to each other and Longmuir's system we would be ok. Can really see how we achieve the figures above....
 

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Scham

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 19, 2004
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I’d be backing at least 6 of those players to increase their scoring in 2021. There’s plenty of scope but as Yeti said, there’s a lot of work to do too.
 

Monument Hills

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Colyer to step up this year. Or some of Pearced's kicks may still be on their downward arc by next season so don't be surprised if he assists in the tally.
 

Dump Truck

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As it stands I'd delist Colyer, apologise and then draft a speculative KPF.
In this scenario are Banfield/Thomas already delisted? Personally I'd use Banfield's spot for a KPF, but I could see how Colyer could make way. Don't know if the club would do it though.
 

MadMundy

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Mar 29, 2019
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Taberner will kick 35-40+ goals next year with a fully fit season, Walters will get back to his best, Lobb will improve, Fyfe will move more forward.
 

Joao

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In this scenario are Banfield/Thomas already delisted? Personally I'd use Banfield's spot for a KPF, but I could see how Colyer could make way. Don't know if the club would do it though.
Banfield doesn't have a contract so effectively yes. Thomas is Cat B so he can stay as a free hit.

I don't think we would to Colyer. Apparently a good bloke and now we are punting every knob head we can't exactly go around delisting good blokes with a year to run.
 

kp junior

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Nov 3, 2005
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If We’re serious about Fyfe moving forward he might need to slim down a bit. Get back to full hanger taking banana kicking Nat of 2011


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Scatter

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I seriously think Logue could be an excellent forward, probably in the Darling mode (less the flip top head).
Can take a mark, has speed, can pressure, good kick. His couple of games in the forward line in his first season were promising I thought.
Given our abundance of KPD's and intercept defenders, I think he is the man.
 

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Joao

Brownlow Medallist
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I seriously think Logue could be an excellent forward, probably in the Darling mode (less the flip top head).
Can take a mark, has speed, can pressure, good kick. His couple of games in the forward line in his first season were promising I thought.
Given our abundance of KPD's and intercept defenders, I think he is the man.
I like it better than the midfield idea. I agree he was better than expected forward back then.
 

Allikat

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I seriously think Logue could be an excellent forward, probably in the Darling mode (less the flip top head).
Can take a mark, has speed, can pressure, good kick. His couple of games in the forward line in his first season were promising I thought.
Given our abundance of KPD's and intercept defenders, I think he is the man.
if his kicking translates well to goal kicking this could be a great idea. Being in a leading role rather than a chasing role could help protect him from injury too.
 

Cobbler

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Feels weird that we’ve got rid of Hogan, McCarthy and Matera and I actually feel better about our forward line!

Taberber and Lobb as talls.
Fyfe and Sturt as mediums.
Walters, Schultz, Henry, Switta as smalls.

Structure will be important but if we can trust Brayshaw, Cerra, Serong, Tucker to run the midfield having Walters and Fyfe as forwards is great.
 

Kapow!!!

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It really does feel like a retread of the "good old days" when we talked about how we were going to kick winning scores and who was stepping up to help Pav. This all bears a frightening resemblance to the conversations we've had from 2013-2016. And 2005-2009.
 
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Ysaye

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We should be bold and draft the leading goal scorer from every state league.
We don't have a high enough pick to get Logan McDonald.

On a serious note, the problem with most leading state goal scorers is that (at a state league level) they most often rely on qualities that they can't outright rely on at the next level up. Mason Shaw I think ended up passing Logan McDonald after the main season through the finals in terms of goal kicking and he has already been discarded once from an AFL list, one issue being he is not fast enough on a lead at the next level and can't get the separation. Ryan Murphy was the same. Others are not strong enough, tall enough etc.
 

Ysaye

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Basically we need:
  • Walters forward full time
  • Sturt and Henry getting towards their potential - IMO Henry can definitely be a 1.2+ goal player next season, Sturt played as a main leading forward like what he did when he played should be able to get close to 2 goals I feel.
  • Lobb towards that one good year he had forward for GWS where he had 1.2+ goals.
  • Fyfe to play forward a lot of the time and get around 0.8 but most importantly scare the pants off the opposition as a third forward.
Point 2 is the critical one and the one I feel like we are banking on a lot, but I suppose at least Sturt and Henry have their heads generally switched on unlike the players we have ditched so if anyone is going to do it....

Edit: There is the class there, even if it is not in the talls. Also because of the gamestyle that we play, I still believe Frederick, Shultz and/or Bewley are important to add that pressure to the team. Frederick in particular for me is outstanding with his ability to run down players and get through the lines. These guys might not kick the goals but they are super important to the success.
 

Wigarus

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We don't have a high enough pick to get Logan McDonald.

On a serious note, the problem with most leading state goal scorers is that (at a state league level) they most often rely on qualities that they can't outright rely on at the next level up. Mason Shaw I think ended up passing Logan McDonald after the main season through the finals in terms of goal kicking and he has already been discarded once from an AFL list, one issue being he is not fast enough on a lead at the next level and can't get the separation. Ryan Murphy was the same. Others are not strong enough, tall enough etc.

The reason I said it would be bold is because of the exact rationale you posted. It's the same type of thinking that has players like Neale and Caleb Daniel at the bottom of the draft.

They would all be relatively cheap. They have all demonstrated a desire to compete and win. They would all have more appreciation for a list spot than an 18-19 year old. They would all be late draft picks. They have all demonstrated goal sense. They could all be moved on after a single season if they don't work out. They all seem to have more upside than the last key forward we drafted in Dixon. I really don't see the downside. I think that one of the big problems is that everyone seems to over-rate our youth. They have all shown more durability than Sturt for example who keeps being thrown up as a serious option.

Either way, our forward line sucks. Some posters on here even after a year of JLO coaching 'skills' still think that it can be coached into our current squad. I disagree.


Logan McDonald is a perfect example. He isn't the leading wafl goal scorer. He's 4th. He is out of our price range because of POTENTIAL. Because he is young. Alec Waterman is the WAFL leading goal scorer and he already was drafted by a smarter, more successful club.

At the moment, our club is gifting games to high draft picks, basically gambling that they will become legitimate AFL players eventually. The likelihood is that if we drafted Mason Shaw and Logan McDonald at the same time, Shaw would probably be picked ahead of McDonald on merit for the first year or two of his career and that's why clubs won't do it. If the club drafted McDonald they would want him playing AFL from game 1 so he can get AFL experience.
 

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