It's a tough question. Given recent list management decisions, we are in a precarious position when it comes to the forward line, so I thought I'd do a little digging as to what is required for a premiership winning forward line.
To determine the standard required, I've chosen the top 6 goalkickers from the last 5 premiers and calculated the average goals per game.
2020 - Richmond (TOG adjusted)
Lynch - 2.11
Riewoldt - 1.96
Martin - 1.38
Castagna 1.01
Bolton - 0.98
Rioli - 0.83
2019 - Richmond
Lynch - 2.52
Riewoldt - 1.85
Martin - 1.39
Castagna - 1.13
Caddy - 0.94
Lambert - 0.86
2018 - West Coast
Kennedy - 3.07
Darling - 2.29
Ryan - 1.54
Cripps - 1.52
Lecras - 1.39
Rioli 1.17
2017 - Richmond
Riewoldt - 2.35
Martin - 1.48
Butler - 1.30
Castagna - 1.04
Rioli - 1.00
Caddy - 0.96
* Townsend - 3.2 (Outlier of form)
2016 - Western Bulldogs (Bit of an outlier overall)
Stringer - 1.83
Dickson - 1.82
Smith - 1.38
Bontempelli - 1.00
McLean - 0.93
Boyd - 0.87
*Redpath - 2.00 (DNP)
So on average our forward line needs to consist of goalkickers that average...
2.38
1.88
1.40
1.14
1.05
0.94
Which is a total of 8.79 goals per game.
So where does our forward line sit amongst that?
2020 - Fremantle
Taberner - 2.27
Walters - 1.34
Fyfe - 0.89
Schultz - 0.88
Crowden - 0.75
Lobb - 0.74
* Hogan - 0.89 (Goneski and small sample size)
* Sturt - 1.67 (1st year player and small sample size)
So for us to have a premiership winning forward line we need effectively 5-6 players on the list averaging at least one goal a game, and we only currently have 2. So the question is, which players can do that next season?
To determine the standard required, I've chosen the top 6 goalkickers from the last 5 premiers and calculated the average goals per game.
2020 - Richmond (TOG adjusted)
Lynch - 2.11
Riewoldt - 1.96
Martin - 1.38
Castagna 1.01
Bolton - 0.98
Rioli - 0.83
2019 - Richmond
Lynch - 2.52
Riewoldt - 1.85
Martin - 1.39
Castagna - 1.13
Caddy - 0.94
Lambert - 0.86
2018 - West Coast
Kennedy - 3.07
Darling - 2.29
Ryan - 1.54
Cripps - 1.52
Lecras - 1.39
Rioli 1.17
2017 - Richmond
Riewoldt - 2.35
Martin - 1.48
Butler - 1.30
Castagna - 1.04
Rioli - 1.00
Caddy - 0.96
* Townsend - 3.2 (Outlier of form)
2016 - Western Bulldogs (Bit of an outlier overall)
Stringer - 1.83
Dickson - 1.82
Smith - 1.38
Bontempelli - 1.00
McLean - 0.93
Boyd - 0.87
*Redpath - 2.00 (DNP)
So on average our forward line needs to consist of goalkickers that average...
2.38
1.88
1.40
1.14
1.05
0.94
Which is a total of 8.79 goals per game.
So where does our forward line sit amongst that?
2020 - Fremantle
Taberner - 2.27
Walters - 1.34
Fyfe - 0.89
Schultz - 0.88
Crowden - 0.75
Lobb - 0.74
* Hogan - 0.89 (Goneski and small sample size)
* Sturt - 1.67 (1st year player and small sample size)
So for us to have a premiership winning forward line we need effectively 5-6 players on the list averaging at least one goal a game, and we only currently have 2. So the question is, which players can do that next season?