Tasmania Where will the Hawks and Roos go?

[Bunk Moreland]

Thought this was an interesting topic. If the Devils enter the league, Hawthorn and North would vacate Tassie.

It may not even take that, as there's talk around that the Tassie Govt will be keen to exit the deals as soon as 2021, and concentrate on an AFL club.

What will the Hawks and Roos do? Will they simply return to Melbourne? Very possible, but both have very significant deals in place with Tassie and they may well seek to recreate them elsewhere.

I know there's been some talk recently about the deals not being good for Tassie, but that's simply not the case surely - Tassie have repeatedly re-signed onto these deals so it's not as though they could be getting nothing out of it.

Are there any other locations the Hawks or North could look to move to?

Current home game deals

North Melbourne: Hobart (4 games)

Hawthorn: Launceston (4 games)

GWS: Canberra (3 games)

Western Bulldogs: Ballarat (2 games)

Melbourne: Darwin (1 game), Alice Springs (1 game)

St Kilda: Shanghai (1 game)

Gold Coast: Townsville (1 game)

Interestingly, here's Australia's top 20 cities in terms of population in 2018 (just from Wiki, but it's accurate). I've highlighted those that currently don't host any AFL games (excluding Hobart and Launceston).

1 Sydney (5,230k)
2 Melbourne (4,936k)
3 Brisbane (2,462k)
4 Perth (2,059k)
5 Adelaide (1,345k)
6 Gold Coast–Tweed Heads (679k)
7 Newcastle–Maitland (486k)
8 Canberra–Queanbeyan (457k)
9 Sunshine Coast (333k)
10 Wollongong (302k)
11 Geelong (268k)
12 Hobart (232k)
13 Townsville (180k)
14 Cairns (152k)
15 Darwin (148k)
16 Toowoomba (136k)
17 Ballarat (105k)
18 Bendigo (99k)
19 Albury–Wodonga (93k)
20 Launceston (87k)

Given Hawthorn was able to build something so successful in Launceston, which is last on this list, there's some possibilities.

Would the AFL prefer the NSW and Queensland locations were left to the four clubs already there?

Therefore... do Bendigo and Albury / Wodonga become possibilites?

Queen Elizabeth Oval and Lavington Oval would be the most likely I believe. What sort of investment would be required to host 4 AFL games a year?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

20 Launceston (87k)

Given Hawthorn was able to build something so successful in Launceston, which is last on this list, there's some possibilities.....

I don't think you can say Hawks economic success in Tassie occurred because they played in a town as little as 87k.

The Ferry stopping in Launceston and not Hobart, and the Hawks treating 500k+ in Tassie as one big market has a fair bit to do with it, rather than just looking at a town of 87k supporting the Hawks. The Tassie government paying probably a $1m a year premium over standard joint major sponsorship in 2007, to use the jumper as a billboard also had a lot to do with it.

I don't think those factors are easily replicated elsewhere in Oz.

 

[Prince Imperial]

Hawthorn are now a very wealthy club (only behind West Coast) and are making very large profits. They could manage perfectly fine playing all their home matches in Melbourne I reckon.

It's far more problematic for North. I think Cairns is not a bad option for one game, but I'm not sure the Qld govt would subsidise a match there and in Townsville.

 

[BobbyMorri]

I don't think you can say Hawks economic success in Tassie occurred because they played in a town as little as 87k.

The Ferry stopping in Launceston and not Hobart, and the Hawks treating 500k+ in Tassie as one big market has a fair bit to do with it, rather than just looking at a town of 87k supporting the Hawks. The Tassie government paying probably a $1m a year premium over standard joint major sponsorship in 2007, to use the jumper as a billboard also had a lot to do with it.

I don't think those factors are easily replicated elsewhere in Oz.

The Ferry stops in Devonport on the North-West Coast. Launceston may only be 100K(ish), but they are close to the 100K people who also live on the NW Coast of Tassie.

I am sure another team will try NZ again. And some may try and kick GWS out of Canberra. I don't know much about Newcastle but I don't think they have the stadia to host a game atm.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

The Ferry stops in Devonport on the North-West Coast. Launceston may only be 100K(ish), but they are close to the 100K people who also live on the NW Coast of Tassie.

I am sure another team will try NZ again. And some may try and kick GWS out of Canberra. I don't know much about Newcastle but I don't think they have the stadia to host a game atm.

Yes my bad, I knew the Ferry didn't land in Launceston, should have been more specific about that, but I did think that Devonport was only about 50km drive not 100km from Launceston.

I just can't see any secondary market being as profitable as Tassie was for the Hawks for 2007-2021 deals. Pre 2007 they got $500k a game in Tassie like the Saints, but there was no sponsorship component and that's a major reason why the Saints vacated Tassie. Kennett and the Hawks very clever, basically soaked up the saints $$$ per game component (2 x $500k) with the Tassie government was paying the sponsorship component for the billboard on the Hawks jumper.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I think Albury - Wodonga (around 100k) could be an interesting exercise if you could tap into Wagga too (1.5hrs away). Rich, rich footy area.

 

[Rob]

Hawthorn are now a very wealthy club (only behind West Coast) and are making very large profits. They could manage perfectly fine playing all their home matches in Melbourne I reckon.

It's far more problematic for North. I think Cairns is not a bad option for one game, but I'm not sure the Qld govt would subsidise a match there and in Townsville.

Can't see why not if it's different teams. But they obviously are in it for the tourists, and playing GWS isn't going to drag in many. Maybe a game like North v Adelaide or Sydney.

 

[Prince Imperial]

Can't see why not if it's different teams. But they obviously are in it for the tourists, and playing GWS isn't going to drag in many. Maybe a game like North v Adelaide or Sydney.

Yep, maybe. The AFL like promoting GCS there but they don't bring up many fans and are Qlders anyway.

 

[Rob]

Yep, maybe. The AFL like promoting GCS there but they don't bring up many fans and are Qlders anyway.

The problem stems from the fact that teams with large travelling support aren't the teams that have any desire to sell games, and most of them are teams that Melbourne clubs don't want to play away from Melbourne. North aren't going to play a home game against Essendon or Collingwood in North Queensland, even though you could get a few thousand people travelling up for it.
That's why I suggested Sydney or the Crows - both teams that will probably have decent travelling support but not the same appeal in Melbourne.

 

[Professor Knowall]

I think Albury - Wodonga (around 100k) could be an interesting exercise if you could tap into Wagga too (1.5hrs away). Rich, rich footy area.

Yes - I also like this idea, including the Wagga aspect. It has a ready to go venue in Lavington Oval with a 15,000 + capacity.

It's also an area (actually about the one and only area) where North Melbourne actually has a fair level of support, as the O&M was their old zone, where a number of their premiership players in the seventies and nineties were recruited from.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Yes - I also like this idea, including the Wagga aspect. It has a ready to go venue in Lavington Oval with a 15,000 + capacity.

It's also an area (actually about the one and only area) where North Melbourne actually has a fair level of support, as the O&M was their old zone, where a number of their premiership players in the seventies and nineties were recruited from.

Being upgraded too.

https://www.alburycity.nsw.gov.au/i...rojects/lavington-sports-ground-redevelopment

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

This is what Hawks have gotten out of Tassie. I wrote this in a PM to a fellow big footy member when discussing stuff about a Port Joint major sponsorship deal that went belly up last year, and trying to get a premium deal like the Hawks got. Its why I said above that no alternative second market for another club will be as profitable as the Hawks got out of Tassie. A $1m+ sponsorship premium per year for 15 years allows for a lot of flexibility.


Between 2001 and 2002 only Hawks played games in Launceston and then 2003 and 2006 Hawks + Saints. Those games were a straight $500k per game fee and the Tassie government kept all ticket sales revenue and other game day revenue.

There have been 3 x 5 year deals since then for the Hawks, ie 2007-11, 2012-16, 2017-21.

The 2007-11 deal of sponsorship for TASMANIA on the front of jumper + 4 AFL games + preseason games was worth up to $16.5m. From something I posted in November 2013 at these 2 posts -

Mega Thread - Port Forum 'General AFL Talk' Thread

In 2004 the Tasmanian govt put in between $300k-$500k per game http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/York_Park It probably was much less than $500k per game before the 2006 deal where Hawthorn played 1 pre-season game and 4 premiership games each year over 5 years for $15m or $3m a year, $600k per game...

www.bigfooty.com

and
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...afl-talk-thread.995343/page-297#post-30993315

2010 article re negotiations for 2012-16 deal
THE Tasmanian government last night welcomed the opportunity to host more AFL games but remained steadfast in its desire to have its own team.
......
Hawthorn already has a $16.5 million, five-year deal to play one pre-season and four home-and-away games in Launceston, with the Hawks today hosting Adelaide at Aurora Stadium

The hawks got $300k bonus for winning the 2008 flag which was part of the $16.5m. This bonus was raised in the Tassie parliament. From May 2009 article in The Australian.

Under the sponsorship deal, Tasmania has naming rights on the front of player jerseys in return for $1.8 million a year, as well as the right to four Hawks "home" matches at Aurora Stadium for $1.2 million a year. Officially $15 million over five years, the funds are indexed to inflation, and there are performance bonuses which, for example, cost Tasmanian taxpayers an extra $300,000 when the Hawks won the 2008 flag.......

so given inflation was about 2% that $3mil is about $3.25m by 2011 and $1.8m jumper component was at about $1.95m at the end of the deal.

So the Tassie government dropped the price for game fee from $500k to $300k as the Hawks could sell 4 game Tassie memberships, now at about 8,000 and the Hawks keep that revenue ( as match day ticket sales received by government/stadium therefore was reduced) and they got access to other revenue streams eg corporates and advertising.

Then the 2012-16 deal was $18mil

ONE of the harshest critics of Tasmania's multi-million-dollar Hawthorn sponsorship deal will be front and centre today decked out in brown and gold to welcome the team and the Premiership Cup to the state.

Greens leader Nick McKim -- a passionate Hawks supporter and member -- has been a long-time, ardent opponent of the $18 million, five-year deal that has Hawthorn play four roster games a season in Launceston and "Tasmania" branded across its playing jumper.

The 2017-21 deal is worth $19mil
http://www.themercury.com.au/sport/...n/news-story/222e30ba545f12d8905010d23a1c70b6
TASMANIA’S quest for its own AFL team remains on hold until 2021 at least, after the State Government recommitted to a five-year $19 million deal with Hawthorn. Premier Will Hodgman announced the contract extension at the president’s dinner at the MCG before the Hawthorn-Richmond clash last night.

Under the deal, Hawthorn will continue to play four roster games and a pre-season game in Launceston until the end of 2021.Despite committing to the new deal, the Government said a Tasmanian team remained its priority.
http://www.themercury.com.au/sport/...n/news-story/222e30ba545f12d8905010d23a1c70b6

So that's why I said in my previous reply the jumper is worth about $2.5mil as the fee for a home game would now be about $350k/game. But its actually a bit less than that.

So $2.3mil/year for jumper + 4 games x $350k = $3.7mil x 5 years = $18.5mil + bonuses gets to $19mil

When HSBC stopped being the back of the jumper sponsors in October 2012 it was reported they were paying $1.2mil/year ie Hawks got $3mil+ for jumper sponsorship in 2012 and now about $3.5mil if iiNet matched HSBC when they took over the back of the jumper.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sp...opts-for-rugby-golf-focus-20120523-1z5iu.html
HAWTHORN is searching for a new major sponsor after HSBC Bank ended its long-term deal with one of the AFL's power clubs. Both parties yesterday confirmed the multimillion-dollar sponsorship would finish in October, ending an association that began in 2004. Industry sources estimate the deal was worth $1.2 million a season. HSBC was given prime advertising space on the back of the players' guernseys.

I have no doubt Tassie are paying a decent premium for their jumper rights, but $2.5~$2.8mil for a top 6 club for front and back sponsorship is about the market value total fee.

At the end of 2006 season, Vodafone signed a 3 year sponsorship fee worth $5.4mil with Brisbane replacing AAPT, as the major sponsor not a joint major sponsor. So the sponsorship deal component of $1.8mil of the Tassie deal, signed after the 2006 season, which was the starting point, just for the front of jumper component of the Hawks jumper in 2007, was a decent premium.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

When the Whitten Oval upgrade is complete, I wonder if the Bulldogs will simply play their lower rating games there, and leave Ballarat. That would allow North to move back in.

 

[Walshawk]

GWS pull out of Canberra and rebrand Western Sydney, play one game at Wollongong and Newcastle each year around Easter when Showgrounds is out of action.
Hawks to take up three games in Canberra.
Roos to play in Albury. Lavington still won’t be up to AFL standard in 2020, but will be close.
Canberra RAMS to be the 20th club in 2029, playing seven games in Canberra, three in Albury and one in Wagga.
That is all the main population centres covered.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Lots of wild assumptions and wacky ideas in this thread. When in Rome... We know the AFL is against teams playing home games in other established markets, but there might be a way to make it more palatable.

What if Hawthorn sold a home game (against an interstate team) to a Big 4 Vic club. So for example Thursday night just gone could've been hosted by Essendon at the MCG, and next week between the Eagles and Hawks gets played in Perth. Or Collingwood buy Hawthorn's home game vs GWS so a crowd of 15-20k turns into 30-35k. Can't imagine it would bother West Coast or the Giants too much either, it means they don't have to miss out on time at the G as opposed to playing in Bendigo or wherever in the future.

Don't forget the addition of a Tasmanian team would mean a dilution of games in Victoria, so this would be a way for a club to continue playing 16 times in Melbourne when they otherwise wouldn't be able to. Bit tougher for North because buying a Marvel Stadium home game isn't quite as enticing.

 

[abcde12345]

I think statements about GWS leaving Canberra are pretty unrealistic. There are a tonne of positives that come out of the deal with Canberra for the Giants.

First which should be obvious is the money. The ACT are in the eighth season of a ten year deal for $23 million. That comes for a commitment of 3 games a year (and no main jumper sponsorship as far as I'm aware). Comes out to about $750k a game without the jumper sponsorship. Compare this with the Hawks Launceston deal, which comes to about $1m a game or $3.8m pa (thanks to RussellEbertHandball), but includes jumper sponsorship too. You would have to say the GWS Canberra deal compares pretty favourably with this. My search comes up with a $4m deal with Virgin Airlines for the Giants home front jumper sponsorship over 5 years ($800k pa). Puts GWS at $3.1m a season compared to the Hawks at $3.8m a season (and as far as I can tell, Tasmania is the front jumper sponsor for all games, while Virgin Australia is only the front jumper sponsor for home games).

Secondly is that the capital region and much of the Murray is part of the Giants zone. Creates even more purpose in the Giants pursuing the development of the game around Canberra and the Riverina. This is an extremely productive area for AFL talent, and has produced a lot of results for the Giants. Suggestions of the Giants leaving Canberra (their zone) for areas like Newcastle and Woollongong (Swans zone - Heeney is from Newcastle) would not make a lot of sense when considering this. It's way too convenient as a way to keep the Giants stronger on the field, which will obviously be a priority for the AFL.

GWS doesn't have access to their home ground over the Easter period. Canberra is the only major city in the Giants' zone other than Sydney with over 100k people. Really, that is the perfect match for a playing partnership in the AFL, and I can't see it changing unless the Giants start to regularly sell out the Showground (obviously a long way away) and resultingly have more sway in what goes on during the season.

 

[Rob]

GWS pull out of Canberra and rebrand Western Sydney, play one game at Wollongong and Newcastle each year around Easter when Showgrounds is out of action.
Hawks to take up three games in Canberra.
Roos to play in Albury. Lavington still won’t be up to AFL standard in 2020, but will be close.
Canberra RAMS to be the 20th club in 2029, playing seven games in Canberra, three in Albury and one in Wagga.
That is all the main population centres covered.

No way the Giants are leaving Canberra. They've got their faults as a club, but they've done as well there as could possibly be expected.

Never mind that neither Newcastle or Wollongong have no suitable ground (and AFAIK no plans to build one).

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Being upgraded too.

https://www.alburycity.nsw.gov.au/i...rojects/lavington-sports-ground-redevelopment

Seems a bit silly to develop a ground out at the arse end of town when there's a perfectly good oval right next to the town centre and the river (the one that Albury Tigers play at). There's a reason Waverley and Football Park got dumped for stadiums in the city centre. But I've never been to Albury, there's probably a good reason for the development that I'm not aware of.

 

[Walshawk]

Seems a bit silly to develop a ground out at the arse end of town when there's a perfectly good oval right next to the town centre and the river (the one that Albury Tigers play at). There's a reason Waverley and Football Park got dumped for stadiums in the city centre. But I've never been to Albury, there's probably a good reason for the development that I'm not aware of.

Most of the upgrades are to the rest of the precinct, athletics for schools, soccer, netball, etc. Lavington is middle of nowhere. Yes, they should redevelop the oval in the city for AFL and BBL. Lavington is a small pitch leave if to RL.

 

[Walshawk]

No way the Giants are leaving Canberra. They've got their faults as a club, but they've done as well there as could possibly be expected.

Never mind that neither Newcastle or Wollongong have no suitable ground (and AFAIK no plans to build one).

Giants won’t get any traction in Western Sydney unless they are called Western Sydney. If Tassie come in, Canberra could be the 20th club so it is very possible t leaving CANBERRA. Wollongong has a decent ground. Newcastle needs one. Isn’t that the whole point of the AFL, to grow our great game?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Most of the upgrades are to the rest of the precinct, athletics for schools, soccer, netball, etc. Lavington is middle of nowhere. Yes, they should redevelop the oval in the city for AFL and BBL. Lavington is a small pitch leave if to RL.

Good point, didn't realise that. Hopefully the AFL will come to the table and throw some money in the city oval eventually. As others have said it's the logical place for North to send games to if Hobart tells them to leave.

If Tassie come in, Canberra could be the 20th club so it is very possible the Giants will be leaving Sydney.

But this, I don't understand. Why on earth would the Giants leave Sydney because Canberra gets a team? If anything it'd make them more likely to stay. They'll find other ovals to play games at during Easter, whether it be Wollongong or Wagga or Blacktown. Doubt Canberra gets a team anyway, population is too low and they're not mad for the game like Tassie is. Sydney or Perth probably get a third team.

 

[Walshawk]

Good point, didn't realise that. Hopefully the AFL will come to the table and throw some money in the city oval eventually. As others have said it's the logical place for North to send games to if Hobart tells them to leave.


But this, I don't understand. Why on earth would the Giants leave Sydney because Canberra gets a team? If anything it'd make them more likely to stay. They'll find other ovals to play games at during Easter, whether it be Wollongong or Wagga or Blacktown. Doubt Canberra gets a team anyway, population is too low and they're not mad for the game like Tassie is. Sydney or Perth probably get a third team.

Typo. Meant Canberra.
Canberra area has half a million people. Younger, more affluent population than the GC with more interest in footy. Great place for a team, and can actually grow the game unlike WA3

 

[Our Game]

I don't think you can say Hawks economic success in Tassie occurred because they played in a town as little as 87k.

The Ferry stopping in Launceston and not Hobart, and the Hawks treating 500k+ in Tassie as one big market has a fair bit to do with it, rather than just looking at a town of 87k supporting the Hawks. The Tassie government paying probably a $1m a year premium over standard joint major sponsorship in 2007, to use the jumper as a billboard also had a lot to do with it.

I don't think those factors are easily replicated elsewhere in Oz.

The Spirit of Tasmania Ferries dont go to Launceston They berth at Devonport.

 

[CrowdedHouse]

When the Hawks submitted their application for an AFLW licence, they mentioned Gippsland.

If the Hawks were to leave Tassie, I wouldn't be suprised if they looked at developing 20,000 odd seat stadium in a place like Warragul.

Close enough for people in Melbourne outer south-east to travel too, as well as those in the Latrobe Valley and greater Gippsland.

Would be ideal for games against the Suns and Giants, and perfect for their AFLW team (when that happens).

 

[speedpeck23]

AFL need more matches in NSW, Qld... North sell two games into Sydney..one against swans , one against GWS. play at neutral venue North of Sydney.. then away games Swans SCG, Giants at Homebush...effectively get 4 games in Sydney. Hawks do similar thing on Qld Sunshine Coast...4 games Qld.
WinWinWin for Tassie, AFL expansion..and Nth and Hawks..