Where will we be at the bye?

[CrowToon]

Our most difficult patch of the season is upon us

6: GWS (H) - Loss
7: Freo (A) - Loss
8: Blues (H) - Win
9: Port (A) - Loss
10: Pies (A) - Loss
11: Eagles (H) - Win
12: Swans (A) - Loss
13: Lions (H) - Loss
14: Hawks (A) - Loss

Bye: Crows 5W - 9L

Now I get it, on our day we would beat Giants or Lions at home. We could beat Port. But we could also lose to Carlton if they somehow discover how to play footy. It's in our DNA. The ledger still comes out similar to the above. Even if we nick a game or two better than expected we are still in the red.

Luckily our draw post-bye really opens up with some easy games and any hard teams we play we do so at home BUT it means to make finals from there we would need to be absolutely perfect post-bye and probably still needing luck and that's just the type of pressure we like to fold under.

Am I being dramatic? Maybe. But we are coached by Matthew Nicks.

Where do you think we will be at the bye?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Far out 1 average loss and everyone PANIC!!!

Lets be realistic we have been dynamite for 4 and half games out of 5 , and completely gassed the last half of last night

GWS - 50/50
Freo - 50/0
Carlton - W
Port - W
Pies - 50/50
WCE - W
Syd - 50/50
Bris - W
Hawks - L

no reason can't be

9W minimum

Remembering in a couple of weeks we regain Rachele and Murray

 

[skam85]

12-2

 

[Scorpus]

I can't see us winning any of the games away from Adelaide Oval, except for maybe against Fremantle.

Of the Adelaide Oval games we should account for Carlton, West Coast and Port Adelaide comfortably. The Lions will be tough and I expect to lose that, and GWS are a 50/50 game if we're being generous

So that would be a rough outcome (splitting the 50/50s) of 7 wins, 7 losses

 

[Captain Furious]

8-6

 

[SugarShane]

I can't see us winning any of the games away from Adelaide Oval, except for maybe against Fremantle.

Fremantle are great at dragging us into their boring scrapfests and then beating us at it.

 

[WetCrow1991]

Far out 1 average loss and everyone PANIC!!!

Lets be realistic we have been dynamite for 4 and half games out of 5 , and completely gassed the last half of last night

GWS - 50/50
Freo - 50/0
Carlton - W
Port - W
Pies - 50/50
WCE - W
Syd - 50/50
Bris - W
Hawks - L

no reason can't be

9W minimum

Remembering in a couple of weeks we regain Rachele and Murray

Rachelle won't be back until the Showdown.

Also, thanks for the laugh.

 

[Cromulant]

Rachelle won't be back until the Showdown.

Also, thanks for the laugh.

What about Rachele ??

 

[Cromulant]

8-6

Yeah i think this is about where I think we'll be.

If we select accordingly next week (big if) I wouldnt be shocked to see us beat the Giants.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

6-8 seems most likely. Should win our home games against Carlton and West Coast as well as the Showdown, but I struggle to see us winning the others. Maybe get a home win against the Giants or Lions or away vs Freo to take us 8-6, but that's the absolute maximum. I've already marked Collingwood and Sydney as losses because Nicks doesn't know how to beat either of them.

 

[AFC979810]

Our finish to the season is extremely manageable.

Get to the bye at 8-6 or 7-7 and we are a great shot at top 6.

 

[Scorpus]

I've already marked Collingwood and Sydney as losses because Nicks doesn't know how to beat either of them.

You can pretty much pencil in the losses against the quality tactical coaches. Already lost to Hardwick and Chris Scott, and are likely to lose to McRae, Fagan, Mitchell and probably Cox

Nicks overall win-loss against those guys
Hardwick: 1-5
C. Scott: 1-6
Fagan: 1-1-5
Mitchell: 1-3
McRae: 0-5
(Longmire so maybe Cox: 0-6)

He's also 1-4 against Longmuir so away that's probably a loss. 1-2 against Kingsley

Already banked his easy wins against:

Lyon: 3-0
B. Scott: 2-2
Clarkson: 4-1

and will probably do so against his usual bunny Michael Voss (3-0) plus Ken Hinkley (4-5)

 

[Scorpus]

Our finish to the season is extremely manageable.

Get to the bye at 8-6 or 7-7 and we are a great shot at top 6.

Post bye we don't face as many of the guys that find it easy to beat Nicks

He comes up against Hardwick, Mitchell and McRae again, and he has an underwhelming record against Beveridge and Goodwin. But Richmond, North, West Coast in that period plus another Hinkley match is good for Nicks

 

[JPetro83]

Copied and pasted and changed it a little. i think our 3-0 start was helped big time by who we played. its still the same old let down crows.

I predict Nicks to be sacked after Hawthorn pump us in Tassie in Round 14. so, we will be 6-8 and COOKED

6: GWS (H) - Loss
7: Freo (A) - Loss
8: Blues (H) - Win
9: Port (A) - Win
10: Pies (A) - Loss
11: Eagles (H) - Win
12: Swans (A) - Loss
13: Lions (H) - Loss
14: Hawks (A) - Loss

 

[WetCrow1991]

What about Rachele ??

Thank my phones autocorrect for that one. It must have been fatigued.

 

[Cyclonus]

I'll be happy to be even W/L at a minimum.

 

[1970crow]

Our most difficult patch of the season is upon us

6: GWS (H) - Loss
7: Freo (A) - Loss
8: Blues (H) - Win
9: Port (A) - Loss
10: Pies (A) - Loss
11: Eagles (H) - Win
12: Swans (A) - Loss
13: Lions (H) - Loss
14: Hawks (A) - Loss

Bye: Crows 5W - 9L

Now I get it, on our day we would beat Giants or Lions at home. We could beat Port. But we could also lose to Carlton if they somehow discover how to play footy. It's in our DNA. The ledger still comes out similar to the above. Even if we nick a game or two better than expected we are still in the red.

Luckily our draw post-bye really opens up with some easy games and any hard teams we play we do so at home BUT it means to make finals from there we would need to be absolutely perfect post-bye and probably still needing luck and that's just the type of pressure we like to fold under.

Am I being dramatic? Maybe. But we are coached by Matthew Nicks.

Where do you think we will be at the bye?

Reckon I had port as a loss in my ladder predictor for the prediction thread, but st the moment, that’s a fairly confident win. Lions at home I reckon is 50:50 too. Tough stretch though.

 

[TRP1996]

Think we'll get through the season on a bit of a knife edge with a relatively even W/L ratio, hovering on the edge of the 8.

We go into Round 23 needing to win our last two matches to make the finals. We lead by five goals at three quarter time. Collingwood charge home in the last. It looks like we'll hold out for 5-point win. Nick Daicos gets a soft free kick at a stoppage on their forward flank. Siren goes. Daicos is too far out, but Mark Keane gives away a stupid 50. Daicos goals. Pies win by 1-point.

Crows crash out. Lose to Norf in the final round. Finish 11th.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Far out 1 average loss and everyone PANIC!!!

Lets be realistic we have been dynamite for 4 and half games out of 5 , and completely gassed the last half of last night

Loving the retcon that we were actually good against the Suns, rather than completely outplayed but kept in it due to their inaccuracy.

We've played two decent teams and looked ordinary against both. Neither is an unquestionable powerhouse. This is a team that yet again can't compete in the mid-tier.

 

[MrBarry]

Loving the retcon that we were actually good against the Suns, rather than completely outplayed but kept in it due to their inaccuracy.

We've played two decent teams and looked ordinary against both. Neither is an unquestionable powerhouse. This is a team that yet again can't compete in the mid-tier.

This is nonsense, look at the stats - it was essentially even.

 

[Southerntakeover]

This is nonsense, look at the stats - it was essentially even.

They had six more scoring shots. The idea that we put on a show in this game, rather than hung in it with a chance to pinch it is the nonsense.

Which is fine. You don't dominate every game, and sometimes you need to sneak a few in to get a top four finish or whatever. In isolation, who cares.

But coupled with the Geelong game we have a pattern which is the same pattern we've had under Nicks for the last five years. A team that doesn't turn up for the games that actually determine your ladder position: the ones against the teams competing in the same mid table crowd.

 

[MrBarry]

They had six more scoring shots. The idea that we put on a show in this game, rather than hung in it with a chance to pinch it is the nonsense.

Which is fine. You don't dominate every game, and sometimes you need to sneak a few in to get a top four finish or whatever. In isolation, who cares.

But coupled with the Geelong game we have a pattern which is the same pattern we've had under Nicks for the last five years. A team that doesn't turn up for the games that actually determine your ladder position: the ones against the teams competing in the same mid table crowd.

I don't agree at all, I was at the game last week and it was extremely even. Look at the stats we beat them in clearances, had more disposals than them and contested possessions were even.

Your trying to create a narrative that isn't true to shit on us. You've also conveniently forgotten they had 7 goals directly from free kicks in a game that was 25-14 in their favour.

 

[Southerntakeover]

I don't agree at all, I was at the game last week and it was extremely even. Look at the stats we beat them in clearances, had more disposals than them and contested possessions were even.

Your trying to create a narrative that isn't true to shit on us. You've also conveniently forgotten they had 7 goals directly from free kicks in a game that was 25-14 in their favour.

It's absolutely true. They had more inside 50s, and six more scoring shots. I don't have access to it, but I read somewhere that the expected score was +5 to them, -10 to them.

Do you genuinely think we were 'dynamite'? They outplayed us.

I don't need to shit on us, we did it ourselves at the oval on Thursday night.

 

[MrBarry]

It's absolutely true.

I don't need to shit on us, we did it ourselves at the oval on Thursday night.

Yeah we did on Thursday but it doesn't change the fact Gold Coast had themselves and the umpires to ensure they were able to win that game last week.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Yeah we did on Thursday but it doesn't change the fact Gold Coast had themselves and the umpires to ensure they were able to win that game last week.

I edited it to add more content.

They ended up winning because of the umpires, because variables sometimes make games closer than the play deserves. They were the better team for most of the day.

It wasn't a game that demonstrates that we're the harlem globetrotters.