Prediction Where will we end up

[Saint believer]

I think we need to buckle in for a hard season ahead as I think this year will not match 2015 for wins and ladder position,

We lost our CHB for the year. Our hopefully forward structure lasted 10 minutes until paddy went down. We enter the season under prepared, as seen in today's match. We have a really tough first 8 rounds with only GWS and Melbourne reasonably winnable.
Generally we will get years into important players but we will not improve as much as those around us.
Melbourne and GCS should both go past us.
Biggest bonus is we will start to look like a younger fast Port and we will have a better indication of those ranked 15 - 25 on our list.

Predict 5 wins finishing 15th

What is your prediction?

 

[Mowman]

With you on this

Predict 5 -6 or 7 wins

Finishing 15th

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

im not exactly sure where we will finish on the ladder. As injuries, form and other teams injuries and form will play a part in it.
But i know one thing. Our rnd 3 NAB practice match form will have no influence whatsoever on our 2016 season.

 

[Nutsngum]

I predict complete inability for anyone to accurately predict anything based on a practice match.

Between 0 and 26 wins

 

[35Saints35]

I agree with both you guys . 15-16th . There will a great victory or two but more often than not frustrating stuff like today . Then I reckon it gets hard for us . Will people want to leave , will people want to come . I do t reckon this upward trajectory is as straight forward as has been suggested

 

[majortinkle]

I think we need to buckle in for a hard season ahead as I think this year will not match 2015 for wins and ladder position,

We lost our CHB for the year. Our hopefully forward structure lasted 10 minutes until paddy went down. We enter the season under prepared, as seen in today's match. We have a really tough first 8 rounds with only GWS and Melbourne reasonably winnable.
Generally we will get years into important players but we will not improve as much as those around us.
Melbourne and GCS should both go past us.
Biggest bonus is we will start to look like a younger fast Port and we will have a better indication of those ranked 15 - 25 on our list.

Predict 5 wins finishing 15th

What is your prediction?

I think we'll beat Melbourne based on today - they were a lot further on than us today, but won't be by week 2.

I still think 10 wins. Won't be unhappy if only get 8. I think Gold Coast are a better pre season team than when it really counts.

 

[maanco]

Wow

 

[bergholt]

Hard to see too many we'll finish above, given we only finished above 4 last year. Carlton and Essendon the obvious ones to repeat. I don't know what to think about Brisbane and Gold Coast. Apart from that every other side looks like they should remain more advanced than us, unless someone can spot a team who will win half as many games as last year.

 

[joop]

Haha, you guys are ******* joking right?

 

[cartel]

Bottom four I think.

I think we over-achieved a tad last year and this year will be a correction, but we won't fall further down the ladder due to natural improvement n the list. If that makes sense.

Next year will be the year to see us rise.

 

[CHBench]

We lost our CHB for the year.

A CHB we've never had.

I hate these NAB games, I've maybe read no more than 30 posts on this board after yesterdays match and I'm done.

Remember in 2009 when Port Adelaide rolled us by about 70 points in the final hit out before the season? Remember when the Dogs rolled us by 40 in the NAB final in 2010? NAB form is never a true indication of anything.

 

[Phoenix_9]

13th-15th is about right, and I've always held this view regardless of yesterday.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

No-one has talked about the vagaries of the fixture. This is why the Bulldogs will have it harder this year as they play more top 8 and top 4 sides compared to last year

As for us, guys we play Carl and Ess twice. That is 4 wins right there - slam dunk.

We play Melbourne twice - I think worst case we split the games so that is 5 wins, (assuming BOTH sides are up and running)

Brisbane is 6

We'll sneak a game or two that we weren't expected to win - that makes 8 wins

Even if it is one or two less wins than above, I still think we'll finish 13th to 15th and that is ok by me, (in the circumstances), as we're one year away from starting to show something

Pick 4-6 in a strong top 10 draft? Yes please...

 

[sonnywalters]

A CHB we've never had.

I hate these NAB games, I've maybe read no more than 30 posts on this board after yesterdays match and I'm done.

Remember in 2009 when Port Adelaide rolled us by about 70 points in the final hit out before the season? Remember when the Dogs rolled us by 40 in the NAB final in 2010? NAB form is never a true indication of anything.

Not sure that is a fair comparison. We were trying yesterday. We finished 18th in 2014 and 14th in 2015. So not sure we can just flick on a switch when the real stuff starts.

Back in 2010 we were a side full of guns and Ross Lyon was openly trying to lose nab cup games.

 

[YEAHFootball]

Somewhere between 10th and 13th is where i'd like to see us finish. If we stagnate for a year then so be it, as long as we don't go backwards.

 

[plugger66]

6 to 8 wins. That means likely 13th to 15th. The sides I see below us are Carlton, Essendon and the Lions. The only other one I can see is the GC but I expect improvement from them If I had to say one number it 6 wins and 15th.

 

[Barrels]

We'll probably have a top 10 pick.

Other than that, who the bloody hell knows?! Jesus, it's MARCH!

 

[aussierulesrules]

Bloody hell, talk about doom and gloom! After yesterday's game I'm just as confident that we'll improve as I was before the game, as there were some real positives for us and we went about as well as we would have hoped to, given the fact we were severely lacking in match-fitness and playing an improving side who were match-fit and in form.

Our midfield is looking like being clearly better and batting much deeper this year, our forward line is likewise looking like being better and deeper (Lonie looks stronger, cleaner, just as sharp and will be able to chase and harrass for longer in games, Billings is class, fitter, stronger and missed more than half of last year, Paddy was pretty much a "liability" in 5 of his 6 games last year and is likely to be much more effective when he plays this year, Bruce is stronger and will hopefully play out the year better than he did in 2015, Gresham will add something and Roo kicked just 29 goals last year, etc) and our backline doesn't look like being any worse than last year and could easily enough be better.

We also have the easiest draw we've had in what may be 15 or so years, albeit with a challenging start to the year, which will be the key for us. Win one or two of our first 5 and I'd be very confident that we'll win at least 8 games.

 

[gringo2011]

Hard to see too many we'll finish above, given we only finished above 4 last year. Carlton and Essendon the obvious ones to repeat. I don't know what to think about Brisbane and Gold Coast. Apart from that every other side looks like they should remain more advanced than us, unless someone can spot a team who will win half as many games as last year.

I actually reckon Brisbane and GCS will go okay, both were decimated by injury last year and you would think they couldn't be so unlucky 2 years straight. Carlton and essendon will struggle all year but there will be others who'll fall away too. It's the kind of year where preparation and injury could be the difference between falling into 8th and finishing bottom 4. I would say there are a good chunk of teams who are competing for the same bank of spots. for example there are quite a few teams who should be top 4 including Hawks, Freo, WCE, Richmond, Geelong, Pies, North. Then there are teams who with improvement could get there but still should make the 8 Dogs, Adelaide, GWS, GCS, Port, Sydney etc. Most of those clubs would think that's where they should be aiming. Then we have the improvers in Brisbane, Melbourne, Saints (realistically GWS and GCS are still here but shouldn't be) who would be expecting to improve or will be considered a failed year. Anyone with little things going wrong could find themselves loosing ground quickly.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I actually reckon Brisbane and GCS will go okay, both were decimated by injury last year and you would think they couldn't be so unlucky 2 years straight.

Brisbane already in a bit of injury trouble with Dayne Beams out for an extended/indefinite period with knee tendonitis and Gold Coast somewhat similar with Swallow and O'Meara out for a while each with their respective knee issues.

 

[Mowman]

No gloom and doom from me, my prediction of around 15th had nothing to do with yesterdays game. Really don't think ladder position matters or determines weather we have improved or had a good year this year. I just want to see games and experience pumped into our boys if we win 6 to 8 games and get a draft pick between 4 -8 and 24 - 28 and Carlisle back next year, we are on the right track.

20 games into
Longer
McCartin
Ross
Dunstan
Lonie
Billings
Sinclaire
Bruce
Newnes

5 to 15 games
Arces
Gresham
Goddard
McKenzie
Rice
White
FREEMAN

We have the makings of a half decent list, this is a slow burn and should be done properly, I'm more then Happy with how the club is going about the rebuild and I am going to enjoy watching these young kids learning their trade, some will come on that we didn't think would make it and a couple who we think would make it might not make it. But we just need to be patience and enjoy the ride GO SAINTS.

 

[gringo2011]

Brisbane already in a bit of injury trouble with Dayne Beams out for an extended/indefinite period with knee tendonitis and Gold Coast somewhat similar with Swallow and O'Meara out for a while each with their respective knee issues.

true but then if they rely to heavily on to few they will struggle again. Brisbane struggled to find tall players who could stand up last year, if they can get some continuity the should be better. GCS seem to need Ablett fit to even bother turning up. If he plays they do. Martin looks like he's finally ready to play at least.

Actually i just looked over their list. If they lose any more mids to the go home factor they might be in trouble. They have a bunch of good older guys who haven't fired, way to many small forwards and their good kids are injury prone. I still think just the improvement from age should make them better but their list looks awfully similar to ours despite being given so many concessions.

 

[STK2020]

Between 5-7 wins so wherever ladder position that is .

 

[SpannaMan]

In probability theory there is a rule of thumb where the average of everyone's thought is usually correct.

Last year in the seaon-in-4-weeks preview we guessed exactly right IIRC. This was despite everyone thinking it was an overestimate. I am happy to back in that theory again this year, so 10 +/- 2 wins.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Apart from that every other side looks like they should remain more advanced than us, unless someone can spot a team who will win half as many games as last year.

Do we really need to "spot them" though, or do we just need to realise that that sort of thing probably happens every single year, usually to teams that cop bad injuries that year? In 2014 for instance Essendon won 12 games, last year they won 6. In 2014 Gold Coast won 10 games, last year they were expected to finally push up into the 8 and yet they won just 4. In 2014 Brisbane won 7 games, they then added Beams and Christensen and won just 4 in 2015. Carlton likewise won 7 in 2014 and just 4 in 2015. That's 4 teams just last year who won approximately half the number of games they won the year before and went backwards as a result. All finished above us in 2014 and were expected by pretty much all in sundry to do so again last year, yet they all finished below us.

As long as we don't go backwards on field as a team (which we certainly could, especially if we had a bad injury run, or get off to a really poor start and the wheels fall off due to lack of confidence/momentum) then there are likely to be teams who finished above us last year who like Essendon/Gold Coast/Brisbane/Carlton last year unexpectedly go backwards and finish below us, especially if we actually improve as a team, which we would certainly be expecting to.