Where will we finish in 2021 ?

[Gralin]

Far too positive. Please temper your expectations

The Christmas depression hasn't kicked in yet, get back to me on the 25th

 

[almuz]

The players we have moved on might be going under the radar a little. How many times have we kept a power forward quiet thanks to Chip or had a game where momentum has swung thanks to Smith’s goals or bulk meters gained. While we did beat the Tigers this season, Smith was our BOG that game.

Clarko and co will keep us out of the bottom 2 sides. Think we land around the 11 to 16 mark.

 

[DEECEE]

Bottom 6. Grab a couple of good picks in the 2021 draft and set up for 2022.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Rob R]

Probably 13 to 15 but will surprise a few teams. Certainly will see signs of improvement though as the kids get more of a run.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Billyc]

I expect we will finish in the bottom six. We have far too many mediocre players that are likely to get games.

I think finishing bottom four, again, is a real chance if we play the same rubbish game plan. IMO most of our improvement will come from simply changing that.

At the end of the day I'm not too fussed given it's a bumper draft, and so long as we get a good look at guys like DGB, Finn, Greaves, Jeka, Jiath, Downie, Morris, Mitchell, Brockman. They will generate some interest and excitement.

Pretty much agree. My expectation is bottom 6 but not bottom 2. Some factors should help us improve on 2020 but a lot of those factors are common to other clubs and other clubs have greater scope for improvement within their lists. We might overtake a couple sides but I reckon Swans will jump over us. They have the better developing list, courtesy of academy gifts. So I reckon 12-16 is about right. No Sicily all year will hurt and I just can’t see us playing finals with the key position stocks we have.

 

[cryptor]

So hard to say. It's easy to make a case for the possibility that we weren't as bad as we performed, but also easy to dismiss said case...

Our great round 1 win against the Lions - though it was at the MCG.
Our win against Richmond - though they were slow to get going and may have run us down with normal game length.
The overnight drop in our performance once we started hubbing - though other teams hubbed and most didn't dip so sharply and so quickly, so while it might be to blame it certainly doesn't speak to great resiliency on our part.
The fact that we were able to rally for a great win against Gold Coast - though it was Gold Coast.
Plus many more reasons for and against.

I honestly do think we were better than we performed and I do put that mostly down to the terrible hubbing situations endured. While I don't think we showed the level of resiliency Clarko has tried to make the focus of his teams, I do think it will have strengthened the lists ability to be resilient in the future. While some seem to think the players stopped caring last year (and they may have to some degree) I do think they continue to care and have enough pride in themselves and the jumper to want to work hard to regain respect.

The other challenge is the turnover in our best 22. While some of those who've departed were unlikely to be best 22 in 2021 anyway, they still leave massive gaps and create uncertainty. Stratton and Frawley were pretty cooked but they were still pillars of our backline and without them we lose a lot of leadership and experience from it. Particularly costly when you consider the loss of Sicily for most of the season. Smith too will be a big loss despite missing plenty of games.

We have some exciting young talent to come in and claim spots and while I'm sure there will be a couple games that we can win based on them putting in some promising performances, but the nature of them being so inexperienced means they're also likely to be inconsistent.

There's also the matter of the fixture. We finished in the bottom 6 so should end up with a few more double-up games against teams we should be able to beat home or away. We may even get lucky with our double-ups from teams who finished higher up the ladder but could well end up fall (eg. Pies). What games will we end up having to travel interstate for? Who will we get down in Tassie? How many BS "home" games will we get at Marvel against Marvel tennants? A lot of that will influence our ability to get wins.

At this point I think perhaps at best we might be very lucky to be able to crack the 8. But far more likely to finish 9th-12th.

 

[Brant]

To those that have us 14 - 18 (give or take):

When do you see us next challenging for a flag?

 

[almuz]

To those that have us 14 - 18 (give or take):

When do you see us next challenging for a flag?

Tough to say. The 08 Hawks got the choccies maybe a season or two earlier than anticipated. Then teams like the 16 Dogs and even 2017 Tigers came from a fair way back to take the flag.

Even the Power looked in strife and turned their fortunes around this season.

Sometimes things click and teams catch fire and roll into finals from there.

Saying all that - finals hopefully 2022 and start to have a real crack 2023.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Pretty much agree. My expectation is bottom 6 but not bottom 2. Some factors should help us improve on 2020 but a lot of those factors are common to other clubs and other clubs have greater scope for improvement within their lists. We might overtake a couple sides but I reckon Swans will jump over us. They have the better developing list, courtesy of academy gifts. So I reckon 12-16 is about right. No Sicily all year will hurt and I just can’t see us playing finals with the key position stocks we have.

Spot on IMO. No Sicily, Smith or Frawley as quality contributors to the side.

No Sicily in particular is a huge loss, he has been our best player over the last three seasons.

 

[Lawsy]

The draw will be important and then we can really evaluate. As almuz said, '22 should be aiming for finals.
At the end of next year, I'm hoping we don't have any best 22 retiring or leaving which should mean we've settled on the core 28-30 players that will take us forward for the next few years.
It could go pear shaped easily though.
Patton injured again, Kosi or Lewis don't come on and we are behind the 8 ball.
At least we will have improvement from Impey this year plus the addition of Phillips and we should get a look at a few more kids to see where we really stand.

 

[Blackhawk42]

To those that have us 14 - 18 (give or take):

When do you see us next challenging for a flag?

If we snag between 8 to 11 wins in 2021 and add quality mids through the draft and a sneaky Merrett in the FA period then by 2023 i'd say we are a realistic chance.

 

[Tuck In]

9th. Can't be more specific than that without seeing training and preseason reports.

 

[Chubberson]

If we could pluck a decent young ruckman from somewhere I'd be more confident. DGB looks a star in the making. I'm thinking 2022 might be a half decent one. I'll optimistically say 9-12.

 

[hawkdork83]

Where we finish will come down to these things for me:

1. Midfield. Can they get their s**t together. Zero accountability, zero damage last year. That said, we have so much improvement here. If Mitchell can get back to his Brownlow best, and Worpel plays like he did the last three games before injuring himself, we are infinitely better and probably in more games. We are still waiting for O'Meara to put it all together, if he does, that would be a game changer.

I think it's far to suggest our midfield has massive improvement on last year.

2. Key Forward. If one of Lewis or Patton put it together and kick 40 goals, and our midfield fires, we will be in plenty of games. Sadly, I think this is really unlikely and bluntly, wishful thinking.

3. Even if our midfield improves, and one of our key forwards kicks 40 or more, without Sicily I still don't think we have the list to play finals when all is said and done.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

To those that have us 14 - 18 (give or take):

When do you see us next challenging for a flag?

Challenging probably around 2024/2025 if we can have a couple of good drafts next 2 years and develop and trade well to add other pieces.

 

[Billyc]

To those that have us 14 - 18 (give or take):

When do you see us next challenging for a flag?

Agree it’s hard to say as it requires projection on how players - including those like DGB and Downie who have never even played a game - develop. If for example each of DGB, Day, Finn, Worpel, Downie, Scrimshaw and a couple others developed at the best possible rate and our best experienced players stayed fit, a Port Adelaide or Brisbane like turnaround would be possible. If a few of those guys don’t develop well, we could be stuttering mid to lower ladder for a few years. So it really depends on how well we have drafted and how well we develop those players, both of which is basically guesswork right now. Ability to land a free agent or two like Merrett will make a difference too.

In terms of expectations I would currently be pleasantly surprised if we made finals in 2021 or 2022.

 

[Dew2KFC2Flag08]

To those that have us 14 - 18 (give or take):

When do you see us next challenging for a flag?

Outside of drafting Buddy/Cyril level talent that completely fast tracks things, probably 2024 and beyond. Unfortunately don’t think Gunners and Punky are around, but hopefully Titch/Jaeger/Chad can still contribute from 30-32 and enjoy some success.

 

[Hodginator]

Sicily out will really hurt us.

Flag in 2022 though.

 

[Brant]

Sicily out will really hurt us.

Flag in 2022 though.

Yeh, Sicily back + Merrett; DGB killing it as a 3rd Forward.

Should grab a couple on the run.

 

[KermitJagger]

Fair bit of realism going on in the poll I see, thought we might see some more pie in the sky type stuff.

Most people on this board aren't unrealistic, they're just not as down on as many aspects of Hawthorn as you are. You've got to find positives, because if everything is terrible then there's no sense of investment.

 

[Brishawk]

6-12 with some downside risk of a lower finish but little chance of finishing higher. I think our squad will be a lot better performed this year. We will be less experienced and make mistakes but I see Mitchell, Worple, omeara and wingard combining a lot better in the middle which will bring our defensive structures into play and give us a chance to win games. Impey getting back to his best couldn’t hurt either. Where we finish will be determined by how some of the younger players develop this year. Lewis, Jeka, Finn, day, greaves, dgb/kosi, Morris etc. does Moore kick on or return to trend? Do any of our young speedsters find their way into the best 22? Quite a bit unknown but it is almost certain we won’t finish bottom four again. North, Essendon and Adelaide look like taking three of those spots along with Sydney, gc, freo among the favourite for that other bottom four place.

 

[danielG]

Most people on this board aren't unrealistic, they're just not as down on as many aspects of Hawthorn as you are. You've got to find positives, because if everything is terrible then there's no sense of investment.

I think the ladder is generally shaped by 3 things. Firstly the fixture, secondly injuries to key players and thirdly winning or losing tight games early on in the season. If we are basing this purely on the talent on our list I think we're in the lower part of the ladder with only Crows, North, Essendon below us, and maybe on a par with Gold Coast...
If I were to guess I'd say we'd finish 12th. We should get a great prospect from our pick if we don't do anything stupid like trading early picks away. We need to stay the course and fix our list through the draft. Don't trade first or second rounders until we are a contender or top four team. No exceptions. We're in this position because of trading out years of high end picks for the likes of O'Meara and Wingard now we need to take our medicine and live with a bit of short term pain to restock our list

 

[grumbleguts]

I actually think sans hub, the games against richmond and brisbane were more indicative of our true standing in 2020 than the rest of the season. For some reason we didn't cope well with the hub diversion from routine.

 

[Rocket72]

Great timing for this question. It's easy to get excited about new players and think it's all going to improve overnight. Seems people are being pretty sensible. Me, I think we will finish bottom four. In fact, I sort of hope we finish bottom four because it means that we've most likely trialed lots of young players. I'm looking forward to seeing plenty of new players in 2021.

 

[Milkshaker]

I actually think sans hub, the games against richmond and brisbane were more indicative of our true standing in 2020 than the rest of the season. For some reason we didn't cope well with the hub diversion from routine.

I watched these two games at home, unwell a few weeks back. Two games is a small sample size. It is difficult to get a definitive read on how we would have fared in a normal season. In between those wins was the Geelong debacle.

I am going glass half full into 2021.