Analysis Which 2016 top 20 picks won't make it?

[JG22]

People are forgetting Essendon got two very good 2nd rounders. You don't pick a bloke just for 2017.

McGrath was the best in the draft. Anyone with pick 1 was taking him.

Plus they then got two of the best sliders in the draft at 31 (Ridley) and 67 (Clarke).

Their draft was top quality. For a side that doesn't have the worst list to take the best player in the draft is an absolute no brainer.

This really isn't true

 

[LukeParkerno1]

This really isn't true

I'd be surprised if any side wouldn't have taken him.

 

[JG22]

I'd be surprised if any side wouldn't have taken him.

Heard on afl podcast many recruiters had McCluggage at 1

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Heard on afl podcast many recruiters had McCluggage at 1

Surprises me, but both are absolute guns. Personally I'd want McGrath and it wouldn't be close.

Be interesting to see how both go at AFL level.

 

[Dr Whoooooooo]

This really isn't true

He will never know what he doesnt know

They took the safe option actually.
Would of taken some incredible deal for Dodoro to move anyway.

They took the marketing option. Dodoro was a lame duck when it came to the trade table ... all talk no action.

The footy community is a small world ... if you get my drift.

 

[Biggies]

Surprises me, but both are absolute guns. Personally I'd want McGrath and it wouldn't be close.

Be interesting to see how both go at AFL level.

But it was close. In fact up until about 2 days before the draft no one knew who the bombers were drafting which is almost a rarity these days.

Plus according to recent articles more recruiters rated McCluggage as the best of the bunch with McGrath a close second.

Not as cut and dry as you say and only time will tell if the bombers made the right call.

 

[Bombers 2014]

But it was close. In fact up until about 2 days before the draft no one knew who the bombers were drafting which is almost a rarity these days.

Plus according to recent articles more recruiters rated McCluggage as the best of the bunch with McGrath a close second.

Not as cut and dry as you say and only time will tell if the bombers made the right call.

I don'think we'll need to worry about either player not making it.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Thread might be worth applying to recent drafts

2013
Freeman
Scharenburgh
Lennon
Leslie

2012
Whitfield (ASADA - joking)
O'Rourke
Toumpas
Jaksch
Corr
Simpson
Broomhead

2011
Kavanagh
McKenzie
Sumner
Longer
WHE

 

[vozzon]

But it was close. In fact up until about 2 days before the draft no one knew who the bombers were drafting which is almost a rarity these days.

Plus according to recent articles more recruiters rated McCluggage as the best of the bunch with McGrath a close second.

Not as cut and dry as you say and only time will tell if the bombers made the right call.

I think Mcgrath has the potential to have more if an immediate impact but McCluggage still was a gun. From postition id go McCluggage but both seem locks as potential AFL stars. My thinking is Essendon would have picked more for there needs.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

But it was close. In fact up until about 2 days before the draft no one knew who the bombers were drafting which is almost a rarity these days.

Plus according to recent articles more recruiters rated McCluggage as the best of the bunch with McGrath a close second.

Not as cut and dry as you say and only time will tell if the bombers made the right call.

Essendon would have had a far closer look at McCluggage and McGrath than a lot of other clubs who knew they weren't going to be falling to their pick.

 

[bungalow_bill]

This really isn't true

The #1 pick rarely turns out to be the best player. I think McGrath will be a very good player but probably not the best from 2016

 

[harrisendblue]

So we should look foward to sps in a few years then lol

Why would he come to you blokes after you ruined poor yazz?

 

[THE_GUN]

Why would he come to you blokes after you ruined poor yazz?

LOL Yazz was gone way before he come to richmond, He was at Carlton too long to save unfortunately

 

[harrisendblue]

LOL Yazz was gone way before he come to richmond, He was at Carlton too long to save unfortunately

have played 120 games for us and was ready to peak. no the sad truth is that your clubs lack of empathy and compassion for the lad ruined his 2016 season and basically made him retire.

its not the first time you blokes have destroyed player in recent times. Poor rhys mckenzie was another better for the experience of having been at richmond - not.

 

[SickQwon]

have played 120 games for us and was ready to peak. no the sad truth is that your clubs lack of empathy and compassion for the lad ruined his 2016 season and basically made him retire.

its not the first time you blokes have destroyed player in recent times. Poor rhys mckenzie was another better for the experience of having been at richmond - not.

Please stop.

 

[Windhover]

Thread might be worth applying to recent drafts

2013
Freeman
Scharenburgh
Lennon
Leslie

2012
Whitfield (ASADA - joking)
O'Rourke
Toumpas
Jaksch
Corr
Simpson
Broomhead

2011
Kavanagh
McKenzie
Sumner
Longer
WHE

Even the much vaunted 2001 draft had plenty of failures in the top 20:
Luke Molan - 0 games
Ashley Watson - 7 games
Barry Brooks - 10 games
Shane Harvey - 14 games
Daniel Elstone - 0 games

What makes interesting speculation is which of the 2015 draft will be failures, because none have yet identified themselves.

Top of the list of likely failures are:

1. Tom Doedee - 0 games in first season. Crows fans do not seem wild with excitement: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/pick-your-team-for-r1-2017.1145965/page-19. So he has done nothing to harm his chances of failing thus far.

2. Harry MacKay - 0 games in first season. Of course he was injured before the season began, is a tall, is still growing and still only 18 so 0 games is no knock on him at all and there is plenty of hype, hope and expectation for him among Blues fans (including me). Plus his supposedly lesser twin brother (pick 21) hasn't played any games at AFL level either but has been given a contract extension anyway so North are not yet suffering buyer regret.

3.Brayden Fiorini - 2 games in first season for the injury-riddled, poorly performing Gold Coast. On the other hand, in those 2 games at the end of the season he averaged 24.5 disposals, 5.5 marks and 6.5 tackles so he doesn't look like he is going to struggle to get a regular game next year and in years to come.

4. Aaron Francis - 3 games. He was long-term injured early but played rounds 18 to 20. 3 nondescript games according to the stats but hardly a vote of no confidence in him.

5. Sam Weideman - 3 games. Long-term injured but played rounds 20, 22 and 23. Nondescript games according to the stats but already averaging 1 goal and 3 marks a game is perfectly satisfactory for a young KPF.

6. Matthew Kennedy - 3 games. No doubt he will make it from what I have seen of his limited exposure, just maybe not at strong GWS.

7. Harrison Himmelberg - 4 games. Blooded last year rnds 17-20 and didn't look out of place in the GWS line-up. His form probably explains why GWS didn't bother recruiting MacReadie.

8. Ryan Burton - 4 games. Serious long-term injury concerns saw him break into the Hawks side in round 21 and was still there in the qualifying final. If he is over his injury there is clearly no doubting his talent.

9. Charlie Curnow - 6 games. Glandular fever after playing rnds 2-5 and then, after returning to the seniors round 17, injured his knee in rnd 18, crueling Blues chances of an upset win over Swans. Will definitely make it.

10. Wade Milera - 8 games in a first season for a side strong in his type of player is a clear sign Crows MC see a future for the lad. So do Crows fans according to the link above re Doedee.

Of the remaining 10 players in the top 20, all have played 10 games or more and clubs don't just "give" 10 plus games to blood kids who don't justify the pick by their performances. On the other hand Kane Tenace (pick 7, 2003 draft) played 12 games in 2004, 18 in 2005 but only 59 career games so it is still possible for failures from this lot.

It is just that I wouldn't bet on any one of the top 20 picks failing (without serious injury) to play 100 plus games. That is damn good recruiting.

 

[harrisendblue]

Please stop.

i will never stop responding to the sledges of richmond supporters. perhaps the truth hurts when it comes to what happened to poor chris and rhys.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

have played 120 games for us and was ready to peak. no the sad truth is that your clubs lack of empathy and compassion for the lad ruined his 2016 season and basically made him retire.

its not the first time you blokes have destroyed player in recent times. Poor rhys mckenzie was another better for the experience of having been at richmond - not.

How haven't you been banned yet?

 

[bergholt]

i will never stop responding to the sledges of richmond supporters. perhaps the truth hurts when it comes to what happened to poor chris and rhys.

Gee it's boring though

 

[bergholt]

Poll is basically done, here's where we ended up.

130-139: Marshall (pick 16)
120-129:
110-119:
100-109:
90-99: Venables (13), English (19)
80-89: Cumming (20)
70-79: Gallucci (15)
60-69:
50-59: Powell-Pepper (18)
40-49: Scrimshaw (7), Florent (11), Petrevski-Seton (6)
30-39: Perryman (14), Simpkin (12)
20-29: Berry (17), Logue (8), Taranto (2)
10-19: McGrath (1), Setterfield (5), Ainsworth (4)
0-9: McLuggage (3), Bowes (10), Brodie (9)

So five pretty clear predictions for the 5-6 that history suggests won't make it. All were taken with picks 13+ so that suggests the clubs did a reasonable job of sorting the men from the boys.

Interesting that Brodie had so few votes. In a poll with 200+ votes, only 4 thought he wouldn't make it. Strange that he slipped all the way to 9. Maybe that means he's very likely to make it but less likely to be a star? Anyway, check back in 10 years to see if that was justified.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Poll is basically done, here's where we ended up.

130-139: Marshall (pick 16)
120-129:
110-119:
100-109:
90-99: Venables (13), English (19)
80-89: Cumming (20)
70-79: Gallucci (15)
60-69:
50-59: Powell-Pepper (18)
40-49: Scrimshaw (7), Florent (11), Petrevski-Seton (6)
30-39: Perryman (14), Simpkin (12)
20-29: Berry (17), Logue (8), Taranto (2)
10-19: McGrath (1), Setterfield (5), Ainsworth (4)
0-9: McLuggage (3), Bowes (10), Brodie (9)

So five pretty clear predictions for the 5-6 that history suggests won't make it. All were taken with picks 13+ so that suggests the clubs did a reasonable job of sorting the men from the boys.

Interesting that Brodie had so few votes. In a poll with 200+ votes, only 4 thought he wouldn't make it. Strange that he slipped all the way to 9. Maybe that means he's very likely to make it but less likely to be a star? Anyway, check back in 10 years to see if that was justified.

and in conclusion none of us have any idea, either do the recruiters and if a player who has talent fails its going to be more down to bad luck with injuries or the players attitude towards being a professional athlete that will prevent them from succeeding. Additionally the GWS kids might struggle purely because of lack of opportunity, this is an interesting point with the academy kids as to why they would sign up to GWS when they know it will be much harder to get a game, particularly the ones that live on the murray and have no actual connection to the area or the club.

 

[harrisendblue]

Gee it's boring though

Oh well dont read it then. Just scroll down and read the next post.

 

[harrisendblue]

How haven't you been banned yet?

what for ? rhys is on public record and there are many posters who have commented on the treatment chris received at rfc.

why is it that your allowed to troll around without being stopped?

 

[Frank Gallagher]

what for ? rhys is on public record and there are many posters who have commented on the treatment chris received at rfc.

why is it that your allowed to troll around without being stopped?

I like it when you call others "Trolls".

 

[vozzon]

The #1 pick rarely turns out to be the best player. I think McGrath will be a very good player but probably not the best from 2016

I would love to see the recruiters perspective on this. My thinking is they pick the guy most likely to make it at #1 or least risk, but as the draft age is so young you find a few guys always end up better.