Analysis Which 2016 top 20 picks won't make it?

[Jeremias]

Keep up the good work on that crusade of yours.

You're right. Yay for racism!

Feel better now?

 

[JG22]

Lol at campaigners saying Ainsworth

 

[LynchysMob]

Think whoever is talking rubbish about SPS will eat their words. Has far more grit, determination and talent than Yarran.

 

[Amigo]

Think whoever is talking rubbish about SPS will eat their words. Has far more grit, determination and talent than Yarran.

Comprehension difficulties? Clearly.

 

[Righteo]

SPS is inside/outside so the comparison to Yarran actually falls down pretty quickly...

Not really stats you'd expect of an outside mid/flanker are they?

 

[Righteo]

Although considering the way his name is spelt there I'm suddenly less confident over the veracity of those stats.

 

[HARKER]

SPS is inside/outside so the comparison to Yarran actually falls down pretty quickly...

Not really stats you'd expect of an outside mid/flanker are they?

I don't think Amigo meant ill at all, but sometimes you just have to put the brakes on your argument as all we're left with is:

They're West Australian Aboriginals that were highly rated. That alone means nothing...zero....zilch...No real comparison to see here.

 

[Amigo]

I don't think Amigo meant ill at all, but sometimes you just have to put the brakes on your argument as all we're left with is:

They're West Australian Aboriginals that were highly rated. That alone means nothing...zero....zilch...No real comparison to see here.

Or maybe you should stop being so touchy?

I never said they were exactly alike, they just have their set of similarities, and the initial post I quoted highlighted those similarities to a tee.

 

[HARKER]

Or maybe you should stop being so touchy?

I never said they were exactly alike, they just have their set of similarities, and the initial post I quoted highlighted those similarities to a tee.

Just stop it. It's all ever so boring now and we'll only get these posts wiped anyway and for good reason.

Just try again and move onto bigger and better things. Similarities to a tee.........Please...........

 

[Righteo]

Or maybe you should stop being so touchy?

I never said they were exactly alike, they just have their set of similarities, and the initial post I quoted highlighted those similarities to a tee.

Yeah, and you were wrong. And now you're trying to awkwardly backtrack. Highlighted those similarities to a tee? Lemme see

Both pacey, aboriginal WA players known for their outside game

If we remove the incorrect part from your post it becomes a very tenuous link. They're from WA, pacy and they're aboriginal, thanks for pointing that out.

Might be a good time to employ a noble retreat from this 'argument'. Everything I've seen, read and heard about SPS strongly suggests to me that the only thing holding him back from being a star will be injury; questioning his work ethic because of Chris Yarran is just... nonsensical and a little weird even.

Not a Carlton fan either so you can't accuse me of being touchy

 

[Asgardian]

I would say 6 out of the top 20 will not get to 150 games which si the pass mark as far as I am concerned, under 150 and you are a very so so player who is in and out of the team

Don't like that as a hard & fast rule.

You see players drift along for a few years only to suddenly come to terms with being an AFL footballer, but have left it too late to reach that 150 game pass mark you mention.

Naturally you have to take injuries into account, Nathan Bock for example only got to 140 games, Bowen Lockwood only got to 50 games

 

[Asgardian]

Todd Marshall is probably going to need the most time to grow into an AFL quality physique.

 

[LynchysMob]

Comprehension difficulties? Clearly.

No. For that reason they are not similar. Yarran is none of those things, purely outside and his speed is better where Sam is one of those guys with elite agility moreso who is very inside/outside. I'm a sandgroper by origin. I've seen them play lots.

Reminds me of when people used to compare Jack Martin to soft outside indigenous guys. I'm not PC at all but it becomes glaringly obvious that some people see aboriginal and think they are always going to be outside players. Martin is as hard at the contest as Hodge but is very slight so they try to hold him back. My best mate played state footy with Martin and would laugh at the notion of someone calling him an outside player. I'd say many of SPS former teammates would be the same.

 

[Jeremias]

I'm not PC at all but it becomes glaringly obvious that some people see aboriginal and think they are always going to be outside players.

Correct - and this is a very clear case of exactly that.

Careful though, no doubt you'll shortly be accused of being touchy.

 

[Donakebab]

The biggest similarities they have are they were drafted by Carlton with the dreaded pick #6.

 

[daffo]

damn that pick 6.

 

[marty36]

Don't like that as a hard & fast rule.

You see players drift along for a few years only to suddenly come to terms with being an AFL footballer, but have left it too late to reach that 150 game pass mark you mention.

Naturally you have to take injuries into account, Nathan Bock for example only got to 140 games, Bowen Lockwood only got to 50 games

I find the majority of players under 150 games are so so players that sort of never cement themselves into AFL and arent really important, there are a minority few that are good that dont make 150 but a very small minority. These are the numbers

Year Players not playing 150 out of the top 20

2000 11
2001 9
2002 13
2003 11
2004 13
2005 9
2006 13
2007 12

Average number that dont make it is 11.3 thats over 55%

So by saying 6 wont make it I might be underestimating I have only gone to 2007 as a number are still playing after that and will make the 150 games even some in 2007

There is no doubt its hard to even get drafted but thats not where it stops those that make it are pretty special players

 

[demondavey]

Here's what I see when I look at the top 20..

McGrath - Docherty/Judd
Taranto - Tom Mitchell/giannsiracusa
Mcluggage - cotchin/scully/bruest
Ainsworth - Elliot/Stringer
Setterfield - McCrae
SPS - P.Burgoyne/L.Neale
Scrimshaw - Yeo
Logue - Roughead
Brodie - D.Swallow
Bowes - D.Tyson/McCrae
Florent - Dahlhaus/K.Simpson
Simpkin- Dahlhaus
Venables - Shuey
Perryman - Laird
Gallucci - hartung
Marshall - Westhoff/J.Reiwoldt
Berry - Maynard
SPP - Rohan
English - Cox

Looks like they will all make it.

Why? Because you 'see' certain players in the current crop?

 

[demondavey]

Talls can go astray so English and Marshall are fair suggestions. Neither should play many games in the next 2 years.

I think he's very good but Berry has the profile of someone like Jack Grimes who gets talked up due to leadership but battles a lot of injuries and who's skills and athleticism starts to look pretty ordinary after a few years. Conca and Vlastuin at Richmond are similar types.

Venables has the foot injury and inconsistent form. Strikes me of a bit of a Gary Rohan type.

Simpkin has the broken leg with complicated recovery that can ruin careers.

By the way, not having a go at any of the picks, just providing what I think are comparisons on how it could all go wrong.

Berry is a unit. He will make it.

 

[marty36]

Here's what I see when I look at the top 20..

McGrath - Docherty/Judd
Taranto - Tom Mitchell/giannsiracusa
Mcluggage - cotchin/scully/bruest
Ainsworth - Elliot/Stringer
Setterfield - McCrae
SPS - P.Burgoyne/L.Neale
Scrimshaw - Yeo
Logue - Roughead
Brodie - D.Swallow
Bowes - D.Tyson/McCrae
Florent - Dahlhaus/K.Simpson
Simpkin- Dahlhaus
Venables - Shuey
Perryman - Laird
Gallucci - hartung
Marshall - Westhoff/J.Reiwoldt
Berry - Maynard
SPP - Rohan
English - Cox

Looks like they will all make it.

History pretty much guarantees this will not be the case with 200-2007 only 45% playing 150 games even if this crop is better it would be a good effort if 60-65% make 150 games.

 

[juss]

One thing is for sure, this top 20 like every other will have it's complete duds and let downs, it's just way too early to try and predict who they will be.

 

[Amigo]

Just stop it. It's all ever so boring now and we'll only get these posts wiped anyway and for good reason.

Just try again and move onto bigger and better things. Similarities to a tee.........Please...........

Why don't you stop it? You're the one who can't seem to get over it.

Yeah, and you were wrong. And now you're trying to awkwardly backtrack. Highlighted those similarities to a tee? Lemme see



If we remove the incorrect part from your post it becomes a very tenuous link. They're from WA, pacy and they're aboriginal, thanks for pointing that out.

Might be a good time to employ a noble retreat from this 'argument'. Everything I've seen, read and heard about SPS strongly suggests to me that the only thing holding him back from being a star will be injury; questioning his work ethic because of Chris Yarran is just... nonsensical and a little weird even.

Not a Carlton fan either so you can't accuse me of being touchy

I was never wrong; I just never got that far into the semantics like you did. Also, I never questioned his work ethic, so evidently you're a liar too.

You might not be a Carlton supporter, but clearly you're no different to the ones in this thread. You might as well support them.

No. For that reason they are not similar. Yarran is none of those things, purely outside and his speed is better where Sam is one of those guys with elite agility moreso who is very inside/outside. I'm a sandgroper by origin. I've seen them play lots.

Reminds me of when people used to compare Jack Martin to soft outside indigenous guys. I'm not PC at all but it becomes glaringly obvious that some people see aboriginal and think they are always going to be outside players. Martin is as hard at the contest as Hodge but is very slight so they try to hold him back. My best mate played state footy with Martin and would laugh at the notion of someone calling him an outside player. I'd say many of SPS former teammates would be the same.

If you're not PC then why are you going this far to argue?

Someone posted this:

SPS is a shinning light amost the top 20 picks, people will notice his brilliance quickly, I was surprised he was not taken earlier than our pick 5.
I reckon he's the most talented footballer of the 2016 draft pool.

It reminded me of exactly what people (like Emma Quayle) were saying about Yarran in 2008, who was also a WA aboriginal selected at pick 6 by Carlton, and thought I'd offer a tiny remark "Like Yarran", if only for a bit of sport, and clearly it was enough to make some Carlton fans explode and hurl laughable racist accusations.

Honestly, think what you will; I never said they were exactly alike but if you want to adopt this mindset that I'm driven to prove they're the same kind of player, continue wasting your life away at your leisure.

 

[CsBlue]

Thing is though he's not "Like Yarran".. Much different type of player in fact. Sure they're both talented but so could every other top 10 or even 20 player be described as talented. Not sure where that leaves your comparison... But by all means keep digging the rest of can use the entertainment during preseason

 

[Amigo]

Thing is though he's not "Like Yarran".. Much different type of player in fact. Sure they're both talented but so could every other top 10 or even 20 player be described as talented. Not sure where that leaves your comparison... But by all means keep digging the rest of can use the entertainment during preseason

Except he is in a sense, and I highlighted the similarities. It's evident you're just overly sensitive and in a clear state of denial.

 

[Amigo]

Is this the, "I'm going to have the last word, even if it gets me banned" thread

You've made your point. Everyone has disagreed with you and that's that. Next!

Why describe yourself here?