Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise? - 2025 edition

Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise?


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Gawn, May and Petracca are very hard to replace though. In fact Gawn can't be replaced as he is that good.

Also I am 36, in 50 years time I will need someone to take over this thread since I will be dead :p
True, but Petracca is still in his 20s, so a bit early to worry about his retirement.

So that leaves just the other two. Gawn should have 3 years and May 2.

The one team I wouldn't be worried about is Geelong. They're incredible and always attract or recruit top end talent.

I'm not getting any younger and they've never been bad in my lifetime !
 

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We should be in first place.

Our most important players from 2024: Stanley, Bews, Duncan, Cam Guthrie and Blicavs - are all close to the end. Most of them close to All Australian last year.
Cats had 7 players 33 and over season 2024 and still managed to push the premiers in a preliminary final. 3 of the seven left in 2024 Rohan, Hawkins and toohey only have to transition off the next three this year probably Duncan, Stanley and Blicavs. If they can do that , get games into the young prospects like knevitt, Clark, Conway, mullin ..etc and still play finals that is a pretty good effort. The list will look pretty balanced age wise after that then we can get to work addressing the over representation of role players on our list guys like Bowes, atkins, oconnor..etc who we might be able to trade for something to fill holes.
 
Cats had 7 players 33 and over season 2024 and still managed to push the premiers in a preliminary final. 3 of the seven left in 2024 Rohan, Hawkins and toohey only have to transition off the next three this year probably Duncan, Stanley and Blicavs. If they can do that , get games into the young prospects like knevitt, Clark, Conway, mullin ..etc and still play finals that is a pretty good effort. The list will look pretty balanced age wise after that then we can get to work addressing the over representation of role players on our list guys like Bowes, atkins, oconnor..etc who we might be able to trade for something to fill holes.
Yeah we've been cycling out 3 veterans for younger players each season for a few years now. The year before they retire they become less important. Just like Hawkins, Tuohy and Rohan were no longer crucial in 2024, the same will be true for Stanley, Duncan and Bews in 2025. Blicavs is useful but his output is down from his peak. Cam Guthrie would need a miracle to get back to being an important player.

So while on paper it still looks old, mid to late year our only old veterans locked in to the best 22 might be down to Dangerfield, Cameron and Stewart.

Our young and prime aged players largely had a good 2024 season but we need them to keep progressing and for a bunch to reach consistency (Bowes, Bruhn, Mullin, Henry etc). And for the Smith gamble to pay off. If we stay up the top end of the ladder, then free agents will still want to come down as the more important retirements take place.
 
1. Sydney - 7 - Reid
32+ - Rampe
29-32 – Hamling, Fox, Adams, Lloyd, Cunningham, Grundy

27-29 – Heeney, Papley, Melican, Mills, Francis, Ladhams
25-27 – Florent, Paton, Hayward, McLean, Amartey, Wicks, McCartin
23-25 – Blakey, McInerney, Rowbottom, Jordon, Ch.Warner
21-23 – Campbell, McDonald, Gulden, Roberts, Co.Warner, Sheldrick
Under 21 – Cleary


For Sydney I am not too worried right now. The 27-29 age bracket is going to hurt in 5 years time but for now everything is looking okay. Rampe is in slow decline so we have been working on finding replacements for him and the only player in the 29-32 range who will be hard to replace is Grundy.

Hopefully Sydney will be in contention to lose Grand Finals for the next few years at least.
 
Richmond would be in trouble if Lynch is injured. Prestia can be covered as he is not the player he was and the others Vlastuin, Nank and Broad are still very good footballers and not 'old'. MacIntosh is not best 22 anymore.

But we have 10 players under 21 who are not listed, 7 of those from this years bumper draft between picks 1-33, and two top 1-6 picks next season. Strike rate is pretty good in those numbers generally.

Could take a year or two before they come good, but with 24 players under the 24 year cut off, it's not a bad place to start a rebuild.
 
Richmond would be in trouble if Lynch is injured. Prestia can be covered as he is not the player he was and the others Vlastuin, Nank and Broad are still very good footballers and not 'old'. MacIntosh is not best 22 anymore.

But we have 10 players under 21 who are not listed, 7 of those from this years bumper draft between picks 1-33, and two top 1-6 picks next season. Strike rate is pretty good in those numbers generally.

Could take a year or two before they come good, but with 24 players under the 24 year cut off, it's not a bad place to start a rebuild.

I actually think Richmond's main problem is the other way around. Not enough experience to protect and guide the younger players.
 
I actually think Richmond's main problem is the other way around. Not enough experience to protect and guide the younger players.
Not if the main core group of older players stay injury free.

There is a lot of concentration on this years draft, but there are a lot of players who mainly through injury have been hampered who are not young bodies anymore and will be getting games this year, whether they are AFL quality we won't know just year but a few have shown good signs.

Young players who have missed large chunks of a season of development injured like Gibcus 2 years missed, Clarke 1, Fawcett 1, Brown 1, Smith 1, Lefau, Bauer, Young, Hayes-Brown, a couple of mid season draftees like Blight and Gray, have all decent AFL sized bodies so are fit and training well.

Gibcus, Clarke and Lefau are coming back from ACL's so might not be available early on but at some stage they will be.

Smillie and in particular Lalor are big bodies so a bit different to most young draftees, Lalor in particular, 18 years old...
 

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Not if the main core group of older players stay injury free.

There is a lot of concentration on this years draft, but there are a lot of players who mainly through injury have been hampered who are not young bodies anymore and will be getting games this year, whether they are AFL quality we won't know just year but a few have shown good signs.

Young players who have missed large chunks of a season of development injured like Gibcus 2 years missed, Clarke 1, Fawcett 1, Brown 1, Smith 1, Lefau, Bauer, Young, Hayes-Brown, a couple of mid season draftees like Blight and Gray, have all decent AFL sized bodies so are fit and training well.

Gibcus, Clarke and Lefau are coming back from ACL's so might not be available early on but at some stage they will be.

Smillie and in particular Lalor are big bodies so a bit different to most young draftees, Lalor in particular, 18 years old...
That's the big one for me - injuries to more experienced players.

If the older guys stay fit-ish, then the cubs should be protected. Plus there is a fairly sizable group of younger players who should be physically and football developed enough to hold down a spot playing AFL each week.

The problem is that the Tigers have a lot of guys that get injured (Lynch, Prestia Gibcus etc), and also some that just haven't proven their AFL credentials even though they have had a few years (Sonsie). If the 2021 crop can stand up this season then the club has a good age situation. If they continue to not play to the standard as a group then we're in trouble. Having said that I reckon Brown looks the goods, and things sound like they are clicking for others.

Interesting situation re age profile for Richmond - could easily argue it looks bad, or really good. I'm hoping some of the developing players step right up and prove to be good AFL standard. Ross, Mansell, Brown, Banks, McAuliff, Ralphsmith, Rioli, Clarke, Sonsie, Bauer, Miller my obvious contenders. Young (1 on 1) and Blight (intercepting) both have well above AFL KPD traits, but haven't shown the whole package. Then there are a heap of guys who have shown something, who aren't the 2024 draftees. So a long list of solid potential, but a short list of genuine proven class in the younger guys (Brown maybe the exception).
 
That's the big one for me - injuries to more experienced players.

If the older guys stay fit-ish, then the cubs should be protected. Plus there is a fairly sizable group of younger players who should be physically and football developed enough to hold down a spot playing AFL each week.

The problem is that the Tigers have a lot of guys that get injured (Lynch, Prestia Gibcus etc), and also some that just haven't proven their AFL credentials even though they have had a few years (Sonsie). If the 2021 crop can stand up this season then the club has a good age situation. If they continue to not play to the standard as a group then we're in trouble. Having said that I reckon Brown looks the goods, and things sound like they are clicking for others.

Interesting situation re age profile for Richmond - could easily argue it looks bad, or really good. I'm hoping some of the developing players step right up and prove to be good AFL standard. Ross, Mansell, Brown, Banks, McAuliff, Ralphsmith, Rioli, Clarke, Sonsie, Bauer, Miller my obvious contenders. Young (1 on 1) and Blight (intercepting) both have well above AFL KPD traits, but haven't shown the whole package. Then there are a heap of guys who have shown something, who aren't the 2024 draftees. So a long list of solid potential, but a short list of genuine proven class in the younger guys (Brown maybe the exception).
Reckon you missed the best of the lot, Campbell, but agree with that.
 
Dogs profile might not be the oldest but their key players in defence and mids are getting on. Hense the recent drafting choices. Could fall with injuries or in general decently quick for a bit
 
Pretty relevant given the thread topic. However, AFL ratings are obviously not infallible.

Should add I believe all their ages are for the end of 2025. Went through Carlton players and they are all 1 year younger than what is listed.

 
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Can we stop referring to "List age profiles" as some supposed measure of success and start evaluating the skill sets, experience in big games and endurance capacities of playing lists rather than basing so much TRIPE on age.

I'm trying to remember the last really super young (as in all of them young) side that won a flag. I haven't checked but Sheedy's baby bombers must have been young I suppose, but all the sides I'm seeing win flags in the last 25 years have been hardened, match fit and well coached units.

I get that some people want to predict the future 5-7 years in advance but defining a club by the age of its players is just too simple....and footy's anything but that.
 
Can we stop referring to "List age profiles" as some supposed measure of success and start evaluating the skill sets, experience in big games and endurance capacities of playing lists rather than basing so much TRIPE on age.

I'm trying to remember the last really super young (as in all of them young) side that won a flag. I haven't checked but Sheedy's baby bombers must have been young I suppose, but all the sides I'm seeing win flags in the last 25 years have been hardened, match fit and well coached units.

I get that some people want to predict the future 5-7 years in advance but defining a club by the age of its players is just too simple....and footy's anything but that.
Especially in the current era where champions often play very good football for at least a few years in their 30s.

Premiership sides are getting older than ever. Sides are contending for longer than ever.

Well run clubs are proving the "rebuilding on the run" method can work. Free agency keeps list regeneration possibilities wide open, while poor clubs will happily "top up" the strong ones to get picks.

Hell, the success seen in rookie and mid season drafts is another spanner in the works.

There's probably a 20 year delay in how the average Joe updates their thinking though, relative to how clubs evolve in real time.
 
Geelong still had 3 of their top 5 and 7 of their top 10 aged 25 or under.

Doesn't mean all is perfect, but plenty who have 6+ years of footy left had very good seasons.
It's obligatory to mention Geelong in these threads but at the same time we all know you will find some young stars and stay in contention.

Neale, Smith, Dempsey, Ollie Henry for starters.
 
We have to mention Geelong in these threads but at the same time we all know you will find some young stars and stay in contention.
More in reference to the BnF results. Troublesome because 3 veterans were there? Admittedly, they are absolute guns even now.

Holmes, Smith, Dempsey, Stengle, Miers, SDK, Neale, both Henry's and Zuthrie are going to determine how well we're going in a few years.

Plus whether we can land a star FA.
 
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Reckon you missed the best of the lot, Campbell, but agree with that.
Damn! You are right, missed Campbell. I still reckon Brown looks absolutely like a steal.

Anyway, lot of potential in thelist without 2024 draftees. But alos a lot of risk in that list. It'll be interesting to see how they go this year. Same thread next year might show the Tigers very differently.
 
So looking just at sheer numbers and not the quality of, the teams in most ‘trouble’
Pies 12
Cats 11
Dees 10
Blues 10

Surprised blues had that many older players tbh

Sheer numbers are not the only factor though. Also need to take into account the quality of the older players and the quality of the younger players coming through.
 
Of course

That part is subjective so for now just looking at sheer numbers
Well it was subjective to draw the line at 29 y.o instead of 30, for one thing.

To give further information to the objective head count, concerning Geelong: Bews, C.Guthrie, Martin and Stanley won't be best 22. Duncan could also be on that list.

So move the line up to 30, acknowledge who's best 22 and suddenly that worrying "11" is down to 4 or 5.
 

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Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise? - 2025 edition

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