Opinion Which players are worth pick 1?

Who would you trade this year's first pick for?

  • De Goey

    Votes: 78 30.4%
  • Bontempelli

    Votes: 198 77.0%
  • P.Cripps

    Votes: 207 80.5%
  • L.Neale

    Votes: 57 22.2%
  • D.Martin

    Votes: 152 59.1%
  • Fyfe

    Votes: 147 57.2%
  • J.Cameron

    Votes: 126 49.0%
  • T.Greene

    Votes: 45 17.5%
  • C.Cameron

    Votes: 10 3.9%
  • H.Andrews

    Votes: 45 17.5%
  • L.Whitfield

    Votes: 88 34.2%
  • Dangerfield

    Votes: 64 24.9%
  • B.Brown

    Votes: 27 10.5%
  • A.Naughton

    Votes: 56 21.8%
  • C.Rozee

    Votes: 36 14.0%
  • J.Gresham

    Votes: 7 2.7%
  • N.Blakey

    Votes: 16 6.2%
  • J.McGovern

    Votes: 33 12.8%
  • B.Grundy

    Votes: 137 53.3%
  • Max Gawn

    Votes: 53 20.6%
  • Tom Lynch

    Votes: 64 24.9%
  • Josh Kelly

    Votes: 96 37.4%
  • Isaac Heeney

    Votes: 34 13.2%
  • Sam Walsh

    Votes: 76 29.6%

  • Total voters
    257
  • This poll will close: .

MF

Good Poster, Shit Bloke
Sep 10, 2006
16,650
10,644
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Liverpool FC
As I suspected, most fans really seem to have an irrational fascination with pick 1. Historically it just doesn’t yield the best player in the draft class, and often not even close.

Consider all the players listed... only one top pick among them. They are best/most valuable players in the league and the vast majority were taken outside the top ten.
It's ridiculous.

Around 50% of the players taken at pick 1 over the last 20 years are B graders.

There'd be at least 20 players I'd give up pick 1 for.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

ThePhreshOne

Club Legend
Apr 5, 2016
1,658
3,641
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Boston Celtics
Bontempelli and Cripps. That's all, Fyfe, Martin and J Cameron would be if they were 2-3 years younger.
 

RUNVS

Hall of Famer
Feb 28, 2007
35,262
32,954
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
It's ridiculous.

Around 50% of the players taken at pick 1 over the last 20 years are B graders.

There'd be at least 20 players I'd give up pick 1 for.
There is usually a reasonably high success rate if pick 1 is a midfielder though. If pick 1 is a key forward then most of the time they are not going to live up to that pick.
 

Hawk_francais

Club Legend
Sep 20, 2015
2,648
5,196
AFL Club
Hawthorn
There is usually a reasonably high success rate if pick 1 is a midfielder though. If pick 1 is a key forward then most of the time they are not going to live up to that pick.
It’s just so funny that we think a player needs to ‘live up’ to their draft position.

A number one pick is merely a bet on the favourite.
 

Procrastinator35

Hall of Famer
Feb 24, 2013
38,796
32,002
The GoldenBrown Heart of Victoria
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Man Utd Green Bay Melb Storm
It’s just so funny that we think a player needs to ‘live up’ to their draft position.

A number one pick is merely a bet on the favourite.
The number 1 pick is projected to be the best pick of the crop....You also have the entire crop from which to chose ...Hence it's desirability & significance.

There are currently 5 players who could win you a big final off their own boot, being proven match-winners in that context: Martin, Fyfe, Cripps, Bontempelli & J. Cameron.

It's not rocket science.....That's what you would pay a number 1 pick for.
 

jsdsgn

Team Captain
Oct 29, 2018
376
423
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Lakers, Packers, Wests Tigers
id honestly only take cripps grundy bont
maybe a few others
wouldnt be taking anyone over age of 26
dangerfield far too old
 

RUNVS

Hall of Famer
Feb 28, 2007
35,262
32,954
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
id honestly only take cripps grundy bont
maybe a few others
wouldnt be taking anyone over age of 26
dangerfield far too old
To be honest I would not even taken anyone over 24. Pick 1 is a big pick, and you want to be getting someone who can go at least 8 years. At 26 there is always the chance they will last less than 5 years.
 

jsdsgn

Team Captain
Oct 29, 2018
376
423
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Lakers, Packers, Wests Tigers
To be honest I would not even taken anyone over 24. Pick 1 is a big pick, and you want to be getting someone who can go at least 8 years. At 26 there is always the chance they will last less than 5 years.
yeah thats true although you could probably pick a random player from the afl and chances are theyre better than most of the recent number 1s
some absolute shockers in the last decade dating back to Watts
 

adammania9

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 18, 2013
9,894
20,262
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
University
Nearly every single one of those players would go for pick one. Draft picks are still dreadfully overrated - you would take an established star every single day of the week.

Only ones I’m skeptical of are the small forwards C Cameron, Rozee and Gresham and also Blakey because I don’t think he’s that good, Dangerfield because of age and Greene because of injury and suspension issues.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Nugett

Premiership Player
Apr 2, 2017
4,225
4,836
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Walsh would be my pick, under 25, has room for improvement, has shown that he could be a great player.

the others, I wouldn’t consider due to age. Great players but long term wouldn’t be worth it. the only one I might consider would be Cameron, but would still like something else to go with it.
 

MF

Good Poster, Shit Bloke
Sep 10, 2006
16,650
10,644
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Liverpool FC
There is usually a reasonably high success rate if pick 1 is a midfielder though. If pick 1 is a key forward then most of the time they are not going to live up to that pick.
A high success rate of them being a good player, yes. A high success rate of them being a star... Still probably 50/50
 

Procrastinator35

Hall of Famer
Feb 24, 2013
38,796
32,002
The GoldenBrown Heart of Victoria
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Man Utd Green Bay Melb Storm
Lets have a look at the number 1 pick from 2000 onwards , with the player who should have been number 1 instead.

2000: Nick Riewoldt…..Excellent choice
2001: Luke Hodge.....Maybe Judd for some but hard to argue with 4 flags & 2 NS; Ablett junior as a F/S also.
2002: Brendan Goddard....Right choice, not a great draft.
2003: Adam Cooney....Right Choice....Another average Draft.

3 of the next 4 are the Blues; & while they didn't blow them, there was clearly better.

2004: Brett Deledio…..Obviously Buddy at 5 should have went number 1
2005: Marc Murphy....Pendlebury at 5 the clear choice.
2006: Bryce Gibbs....Selwood at 7 you'd reckon.
2007: Matt Kreuzer....Dangerfield at 10, Rance at 18.

Might be a good idea for the Demons to avoid Pick 1 wherever possible in future.
2008: Jack Watts.....Yikes, Howler ....20 players in front of him.
2009: Tom Scully....Martin @ 3, Nat Fyfe at 20....What more can you say?

Couldn't say with clarity that any of these were the right choice in hindsight. Maybe Whitfield.
2010: David Swallow….Gaff 4, Prestia 9, Lynch 11 all better.
2011: Jono Patton....Cogs 2, Wingard 6, Greene 11, Mitchell 21 all better.
2012: Lachie Whitfield….Possibly Macrae 6, Grundy 18.
2013 Tom Boyd....Kelly 2, Bont 4, Cripps 13, Merrett 26.
2014: Paddy McCartin….DeGoey 5, Heeney 18.
2015: Jacob Weitering ....Oliver 4, Dunkley 25.
2016: Andy McGrath....Taranto 2, McCluggage 3 & at least 10 others all better.

Still up in the air & too early to call.
2017: Cam Rayner....Stephenson 6, Naughton 9, Kelly 23, Ryan 26, Worpel 45.
2018: Sam Walsh....Early days but looking good.
2019: Matt Rowell ?....My early prediction is Brodie Kemp.

Conclusion.....Pick 1 is absolutely no guarantee of being the best player...Though the best usually go by pick 7.
 

HairyO

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 13, 2015
19,529
20,577
AFL Club
Hawthorn
A one dimensional forward like Brown would never fetch the first pick in the draft.
You could have just written:
"I have never watched Ben Brown play".

Worpel is 20 years old and as good at 20 as anyone in the last decade.

Probably only worth a pick in the low teens given we paid 45 for him.
 

Top Bottom