Opinion Which players are worth pick 1?

Who would you trade this year's first pick for?

  • De Goey

    Votes: 77 30.3%
  • Bontempelli

    Votes: 195 76.8%
  • P.Cripps

    Votes: 205 80.7%
  • L.Neale

    Votes: 57 22.4%
  • D.Martin

    Votes: 151 59.4%
  • Fyfe

    Votes: 146 57.5%
  • J.Cameron

    Votes: 124 48.8%
  • T.Greene

    Votes: 45 17.7%
  • C.Cameron

    Votes: 10 3.9%
  • H.Andrews

    Votes: 45 17.7%
  • L.Whitfield

    Votes: 87 34.3%
  • Dangerfield

    Votes: 64 25.2%
  • B.Brown

    Votes: 27 10.6%
  • A.Naughton

    Votes: 56 22.0%
  • C.Rozee

    Votes: 36 14.2%
  • J.Gresham

    Votes: 7 2.8%
  • N.Blakey

    Votes: 16 6.3%
  • J.McGovern

    Votes: 33 13.0%
  • B.Grundy

    Votes: 136 53.5%
  • Max Gawn

    Votes: 52 20.5%
  • Tom Lynch

    Votes: 64 25.2%
  • Josh Kelly

    Votes: 95 37.4%
  • Isaac Heeney

    Votes: 33 13.0%
  • Sam Walsh

    Votes: 75 29.5%

  • Total voters
    254
  • This poll will close: .

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Sixpence

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2009
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Your point still stands... that Walsh is already mixing it with the likes of Riewoldt and Hodge? Get a life.

And why isn’t my point about McGrath worth comment. This time 2017 he was in the same boat as Walsh is now, and yet somehow he’s not on your list of players destined to be all time greats.

Even Whitfield has done nothing. Going into a grand final I’d rather take Deledio, Goddard or Cooney at their peak.
No, that's not my ******* point. I said that he looks likely to break into that group, not that he was already there.

Walsh has shown far more promise in his one season than McGrath has in 3. Comparing the two just because they're both number 1 picks and rising star winners is just ridiculous. Walsh is streets ahead.

You need to watch Whitfield more, he is comfortably better than any of those 3! Don't judge him on his GF performance when his whole team went missing. He is elite.
 

Hawk_francais

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Sep 20, 2015
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No, that's not my ******* point. I said that he looks likely to break into that group, not that he was already there.

Walsh has shown far more promise in his one season than McGrath has in 3. Comparing the two just because they're both number 1 picks and rising star winners is just ridiculous. Walsh is streets ahead.

You need to watch Whitfield more, he is comfortably better than any of those 3! Don't judge him on his GF performance when his whole team went missing. He is elite.
Walsh is nowhere near breaking into any group of champions. You think that a comparison between Sam Walsh and Andy McGrath is ridiculous, but a comparison between Sam Walsh and Luke Hodge is good. Listen to yourself, you sound like an idiot.
 

Sixpence

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2009
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Walsh is nowhere near breaking into any group of champions. You think that a comparison between Sam Walsh and Andy McGrath is ridiculous, but a comparison between Sam Walsh and Luke Hodge is good. Listen to yourself, you sound like an idiot.
Oh FFS, my point is I think Walsh has the ability to break into that elite category at some point in his career. It's not that fu**en hard to understand!
 

Hawk_francais

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Sep 20, 2015
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Oh FFS, my point is I think Walsh has the ability to break into that elite category at some point in his career. It's not that fu**en hard to understand!
So in the end, we are agreeing that while Walsh has done pretty much nothing, he has a lot of potential.

The extraordinary recency bias in your comments makes me wonder if you watched football 2000-2010. Cooney, Goddard and Deledio were some of the better players during that time. While they all petered out towards the end of their career due to injury or playing in terrible sides, at one point or another they were all probably top 5-10 players in the comp. If you're wondering how many players had great, wonderfully promising first years but never got to that level, the answer is: a lot.
 

Sixpence

Norm Smith Medallist
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So in the end, we are agreeing that while Walsh has done pretty much nothing, he has a lot of potential.

The extraordinary recency bias in your comments makes me wonder if you watched football 2000-2010. Cooney, Goddard and Deledio were some of the better players during that time. While they all petered out towards the end of their career due to injury or playing in terrible sides, at one point or another they were all probably top 5-10 players in the comp. If you're wondering how many players had great, wonderfully promising first years but never got to that level, the answer is: a lot.
Great, now you're at the point you would have been if you bothered to ******* read my initial post properly in the first place!

I really can't understand why you've taken so much issue with my inference that Walsh will become elite? I doubt I'm alone in thinking that. He had a bloody good first season, showed more promise than most in their first in a long time. Maybe he won't, time will tell. It's perfectly fine for you to simply disagree. No need to chuck a shit over it.

Not sure what alternate reality you were watching but those 3 have never been top 10 players in the comp! They were all good players, as were some of the other number 1 picks, but they were never THAT good.
 

Hawk_francais

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Great, now you're at the point you would have been if you bothered to ******* read my initial post properly in the first place!

I really can't understand why you've taken so much issue with my inference that Walsh will become elite? I doubt I'm alone in thinking that. He had a bloody good first season, showed more promise than most in their first in a long time. Maybe he won't, time will tell. It's perfectly fine for you to simply disagree. No need to chuck a shit over it.

Not sure what alternate reality you were watching but those 3 have never been top 10 players in the comp! They were all good players, as were some of the other number 1 picks, but they were never THAT good.
Really don't know what to tell you mate.
Plenty of fans and journalists like Sheehan rated those players in their top 10 over the years. 5 or 6 AAs between them... you just don't remember them as being good. Just watch more footy prior to 2016 if you want to make comparisons.

As for 'showed more promise than most in their first in a long time'; it's not really that rare: see Jaeger O'Meara, Clayton Oliver, Jeremy Cameron, Jesse Hogan, Dyson Heppell. All had really good years at 18-19. The follow through is actually the rare part.
 

Sixpence

Norm Smith Medallist
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you just don't remember them as being good.
What an odd comment to make, especially after the part you highlighted, I explicitly mention they were good players. I just don't rate them higher than Whitfield.
As for 'showed more promise than most in their first in a long time'; it's not really that rare: see Jaeger O'Meara, Clayton Oliver, Jeremy Cameron, Jesse Hogan, Dyson Heppell. All had really good years at 18-19. The follow through is actually the rare part.
Jaeger hasn't made that jump due to a serious knee injury, Oliver is well on his way, Cameron is already elite and Heppell and Hogan's first years were no where near as good as Walsh's. None of them are first picks either (bar Jaeger in a mini draft) so not really relevant to this thread.
 

Hawk_francais

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What an odd comment to make, especially after the part you highlighted, I explicitly mention they were good players. I just don't rate them higher than Whitfield.

Jaeger hasn't made that jump due to a serious knee injury, Oliver is well on his way, Cameron is already elite and Heppell and Hogan's first years were no where near as good as Walsh's. None of them are first picks either (bar Jaeger in a mini draft) so not really relevant to this thread.
Enough, you're not even reading.

I'm sure Sam Walsh will be good, but odds are that your post about him being on his way to join the all-time greats is something you'll cringe at in about 12 months when the next hot thing rolls around.
 

Sixpence

Norm Smith Medallist
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Enough, you're not even reading.

I'm sure Sam Walsh will be good, but odds are that your post about him being on his way to join the all-time greats is something you'll cringe at in about 12 months when the next hot thing rolls around.
Yeh, I'm the one not even reading, ok bud. :rolleyes:

Mate, I don't really care if he does or doesn't. It wasn't even really a big part of my initial point. You're the one that's cracked the shits over it. This whole tiresome conversation started with you and whatever strange issue you have with Walsh.
 

TheKITC

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Mar 7, 2009
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Probably one of the most subjective, ill-defined questions I've read on here.

Who a bottom side would trade pick 1 for is vastly different to what other teams would trade it for, with the range opening up significantly the better placed that team is.

Given struggling clubs always end up with pick 1, you'd think said player would want to be an absolute out and out star and be no older than 25. Even then, the needs of Carlton 2018 would be different to Gold Coast 2019 etc etc. You'd think based on this, the Martins, Fyfes and Dangerfields would probably not be considered. That's not saying they aren't bloody stars, just wouldn't make much sense for those clubs (see Ablett and Gold Coast).

If you're going to give pick 1 to a club like 2019 Western Bulldogs, their range would open up significantly. Almost anyone who is having an impact short-medium term and is an A grader would be considered.

Give it to 2019 GWS? They could trade it for literally anyone that going to have a impact over their fortunes in the short term because they are right there.
 

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Virgin Dog

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Oct 29, 2017
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Probably one of the most subjective, ill-defined questions I've read on here.

Who a bottom side would trade pick 1 for is vastly different to what other teams would trade it for, with the range opening up significantly the better placed that team is.

Given struggling clubs always end up with pick 1, you'd think said player would want to be an absolute out and out star and be no older than 25. Even then, the needs of Carlton 2018 would be different to Gold Coast 2019 etc etc. You'd think based on this, the Martins, Fyfes and Dangerfields would probably not be considered. That's not saying they aren't bloody stars, just wouldn't make much sense for those clubs (see Ablett and Gold Coast).

If you're going to give pick 1 to a club like 2019 Western Bulldogs, their range would open up significantly. Almost anyone who is having an impact short-medium term and is an A grader would be considered.

Give it to 2019 GWS? They could trade it for literally anyone that going to have a impact over their fortunes in the short term because they are right there.
Agree that it's highly subjective. Certain clubs wouldn't hesitate to pay Pick 1 for some players, while others would balk at the suggestion. There's a few on the list like Gawn and Brown who I would say are conditionally worth Pick 1. Geelong would definitely pay Pick 1 for Gawn, but a number of clubs wouldn't. The Pies would probably pay Pick 1 for Brown, but not for Gawn.

Then you have other cases where it's highly debatable, with Sam Walsh being the ideal example. He's a former Pick 1, had an outstanding first season, and is surely still worth the same price. But then you'd have to compare him to Matt Rowell, who has arguably been even more impressive in his draft year. I'd say it's not right or wrong no matter which way you take it, but it becomes less certain that Walsh is worth Pick 1 in this particular scenario since you can't expect him to dramatically change a team's performance next year like you would from the likes of Bont, Cripps, Grundy, Neale, etc. Having Walsh at Pick 1 is probably the safe option (rather than going for Rowell), but it's not exactly clear cut.

The only ones I'd say are 100% clearly worth the Pick 1 without any doubt are Bont, Cripps and Grundy. There's strong argument for at least half this list for various reasons, but these are the only 3 I can say with absolute confidence are easily worth that price
 

Jimbojay

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Feb 11, 2017
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There are comfortably over 20 players on the comp who are worth pick 1.

If you had a choice between Walsh and Rowell knowing that Walsh has already shown that he is able to play very well at AFL level and he's less than 12 months out from being a #1 pick himself. Rozee showed himself to be deserving of being a #1 pick too.

Only time it gets questionable is for consideration of whether 3 years of superstar Danger/Dusty/Fyfe and then 2-3 years of them slowing down is worth 15 years of a probable but not certain star of Rowell, which they probably aren't unless pushing for a flag right now.
 

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