Which side fails to play in September?

[PerthBoy86]

Scan next week, which will see if he returns or not. He’s currently reloading after being in a de loading phase. Which is just minor moving around. They’ll find out next week but they seem confident.

When's the earliest? Having that outside run will be important.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

When's the earliest? Having that outside run will be important.

Most likely if he plays at all it’ll be R23/24 so 3-4 weeks. I’d say more unlikely.

Hawks backline is the one place they can afford to lose someone.

Scrimshaw rolls back into the team after injury, as does Sicily and easily cover Weddle.

The main focus was getting Day back to help Newcombe and it’s a lot easier having two A grade mids than 1. Then you’ve got Ward, Worpel, Nash, Moore, Watson etc who can all go through there.

Forwardline with Lewis is finally fully fit, the deciding factor will be do they play 4 talls, or 3 and drop someone.

 

[Wojcinski]

going by the ladder predictor and only tipping favourites and I've got the Hawks on 14 wins, 1 win outside the 8. Would be crazy to see a team win 14 and not make the 8 though

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

I have to say I am a bit surprised by Suns 90%. Suns usually fade out late in the season.

Yes, if Suns beat Lions on Sat. Unfortunately that is unlikely. One win from the last 12 QClashes or something lit that.

For me Suns are actually a primary candidate to miss out. As usual, injuries could play a significant role which teams misses out. As for Suns, Rioli is now out most probably for regular season and Miller and W. Graham are still missing at least 1-2 more games. On a positive note, it does look like Collins and Weller are back.

Expected wins against Essendon and Richmond take Suns to 13 wins. Suns are still not convincing on the road, but one win from Port and Blues away games is a must.

It could go down to the home game against GWS. Again, Suns did not beat GWS in years. That last quarter against GWS in the first encounter in Sydney could haunt Suns.

I reckon you make it. Will beat GWS imo and at least one of Port or blues. Maybe both.

It's your time.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

going by the ladder predictor and only tipping favourites and I've got the Hawks on 14 wins, 1 win outside the 8. Would be crazy to see a team win 14 and not make the 8 though

Thing is what determines favourites.

For example Hawthorn play three teams that are above them, despite also being 5th. So the gap is marginal (2 games behind Pies, 1.5 off Brisbane and 1 off Adelaide.)

Recent success against all 3 clubs including a win against Adelaide this year.

All 3 games well and truly 50-50. With the hardest being Brisbane in Brisbane, considering Hawthorn haven’t played there in quite some time.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Thing is what determines favourites.

For example Hawthorn play three teams that are above them, despite also being 5th. So the gap is marginal (2 games behind Pies, 1.5 off Brisbane and 1 off Adelaide.)

Recent success against all 3 clubs including a win against Adelaide this year.

All 3 games well and truly 50-50. With the hardest being Brisbane in Brisbane, considering Hawthorn haven’t played there in quite some time.

No way they're 50 50 otherwise you'll start $1.90 as will the other 3. You'll be underdogs in every game. No chance in he'll it's 50 50 being at Adelaide, Brisbane and against us with players returning and after we beat you easily already. You could win them obviously but they're not 50 50.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

No way they're 50 50 otherwise you'll start $1.90 as will the other 3. You'll be underdogs in every game. No chance in he'll it's 50 50 being at Adelaide, Brisbane and against us with players returning and after we beat you easily already. You could win them obviously but they're not 50 50.

You realise $$ is not an appropriate idea on it?

Comparing a betting system, which is influenced by the agency and the people who are betting. To realistic odds or ideas. Is probably ignorant. Not necessarily that they will be way off, but that there is a lot of potential variables not considered, and other things that add to it, whether evening odds or furthering them.

Hawthorn have beaten Adelaide this year. Twice last year including a belting at Adelaide Oval. (No chance in hell?)

Last patch of games

ADE
HAW by 3
HAW by 66
HAW by 27
ADE by 3
HAW by 32
4-1

With losses against Collingwood and Brisbane this year, during a period where Hawthorn were playing at their worst for the season. Taking into consideration form now, recent form all together & (for example) returns of Lewis, Day, Sicily etc.

Last patch of games v these 2

COL
COL by 51
HAW by 66
HAW by 5
HAW by 32
COL by 6
COL by 4
HAW by 19
HAW by 5
HAW by 34
6-3

BRL
BRL by 33
HAW by 25
HAW by 25
HAW by 5
HAW by 12
HAW by 28
5-1

Hawthorn were playing an injured Sicily, no Day, Lewis, Scrimshaw and generally playing a worse brand of footy than earlier in the year, late last year and now.

The idea of them being 50-50 games is that you take into consideration this years recent games, general recent games, current form, returning players etc

With Hawthorn being 1/3 against those 3 this year, good recent success, good current form, returning players (Day, Lewis, Sicily etc).

Outside of your opinion and betting odds, whilst blissfully ignoring certain things. There’s no way you can actually say that it’s ridiculous to think they’re 50/50 contests between top 5 teams currently.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

You realise $$ is not an appropriate idea on it?

Comparing a betting system, which is influenced by the agency and the people who are betting. To realistic odds or ideas. Is probably wrong.

Hawthorn have beaten Adelaide this year. Twice last year including a belting at Adelaide Oval. (No change in hell?).

Last patch of games

ADE
HAW by 3
HAW by 66
HAW by 27
ADE by 3
HAW by 32
4-1

With losses against Collingwood and Brisbane this year, during a period where Hawthorn were playing at their worst for the season. Taking into consideration form now, recent form all together & (for example) returns of Lewis, Day, Sicily etc.

Last patch of games v these 2

COL
COL by 51
HAW by 66
HAW by 5
HAW by 32
COL by 6
COL by 4
HAW by 19
HAW by 5
HAW by 34
6-3

BRL
BRL by 33
HAW by 25
HAW by 25
HAW by 5
HAW by 12
HAW by 28
5-1

Hawthorn were playing an injured Sicily, no Day, Lewis, Scrimshaw and generally playing a worse brand of footy than earlier in the year, late last year and now.

The idea of them being 50-50 games is that you take into consideration this years recent games, general recent games, current form, returning players etc

With Hawthorn being 1/3 against those 3 this year, good recent success, good current form, returning players (Day, Lewis, Sicily etc).

Outside of your opinion and betting odds you can’t actually say that it’s ridiculous to think they’re 50/50 contests between top 5 teams currently.

It is ridiculous. Adelaide have Been great this year you barely beat them. Home Ground advantage is huge. GABBA too. At worst they're 60/40, Bare minimum. Form obviously plays a part but if you were to play right now Crows would be about a 70 percent chance to win that game and be priced no more than $1.60 amd in all likelihood would be more around the 1
40 to 1.50 mark or in between.

You only have wins over GWS and Adelaide in Tassie to my knowledge and that was a while ago now. Most yiur wins have been against teams 9th or lower.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Lions would be priced at no more than 1
45 at home and Pies would be about 1.40 as of right now. Betting odds or not there's no cha ve it's 50-50.

No way you'd get lions at $1.90 at home. No way any of them would be 1.90.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

It is ridiculous. Adelaide have Been great this year you barely beat them. Home Ground advantage is huge. GABBA too. At worst they're 60/40, Bare minimum. Form obviously plays a part but if you were to play right now Crows would be about a 70 percent chance to win that game and be priced no more than $1.60 amd in all likelihood would be more around the 1
45 to 1.50 mark.

You only have wins over GWS and Adelaide in Tassie to my knowledge and that was a while ago now. Most yiur wins have been against teams 9th or lower.

Yes Hawthorn barely beat them. But it was also a low scoring game, Hawthorn have gotten better and smashed them at Adelaide Oval last year. It’s not ridiculous to say it’s a 50/50 game cause he likely is. Difficult or not.

Again pricing doesn’t matter, that’s simply a betting agency and the people who bet who determine it.

Hawthorn also beat the Dogs.

3-5 I believe v top 9 teams.

 

[Jugada]

Dockers miss out. Dogs only need to make up 1 win on them before the final round

 

[Xtreme]

Geelong will go out in straight sets, thus they fail to play in September- take it to the bank!!

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Yes Hawthorn barely beat them. But it was also a low scoring game, Hawthorn have gotten better and smashed them at Adelaide Oval last year. It’s not ridiculous to say it’s a 50/50 game cause he likely is. Difficult or not.

Again pricing doesn’t matter, that’s simply a betting agency and the people who bet who determine it.

Hawthorn also beat the Dogs.

3-5 I believe v top 9 teams.

Hence I said most your wins have been against teams 9th or lower. Dogs are trash who have they beat above them? gws maybe. Adelaide have gotten better as well. Last year makes no difference to this year Crows didn't play finals and haven't for 8 years. This year they will.

Who have you beaten since you've got better? Nobodies. You were flying early in the season when you beat the Giants. They have gotten better.

You would need a dramatic change of form to beat Adelaide in Adelaide or Brisbane in Brisbane. You couldn't beat Freo at Optus..

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Geelong will go out in straight sets, thus they fail to play in September- take it to the bank!!

Cats vs GWS in week 2 perhaps. You could be right. Huge match at Kardinia Park I mean MCG.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hence I said most your wins have been against teams 9th or lower. Dogs are trash who have they beat above them? gws maybe. Adelaide have gotten better as well. Last year makes no difference to this year Crows didn't play finals and haven't for 8 years. This year they will.

Who have you beaten since you've got better? Nobodies. You were flying early in the season when you beat the Giants. They have gotten better.

You would need a dramatic change of form to beat Adelaide in Adelaide or Brisbane in Brisbane. You couldn't beat Freo at Optus..

Early season Hawthorn weren’t performing well but were winning.

Pies/Lions few week period was the worst the team performed and included carrying injuries, system issues etc.

Since then Hawks are 5-1 and 2-1 v top 9 teams.

Hawthorn should’ve beaten Freo given the dominance for three quarters.

Hawthorn then add Day back, Lewis aswell who didn’t play in that game and now plays his 2nd. Sicily/Scrimshaw both play their third game since injury.

Last year makes a difference because Hawthorn not only beat Adelaide this year but also last year twice Inc at Adelaide Oval. You can’t say the Lions/Pies games over a month ago matter but the more recent win over Adelaide doesnt. You’re contradicting your own opinions by doing this.

The simple answer is they’re 50-50 games, look at recent form, look at who’s coming back for which clubs, and look at recent records between clubs as a guide.

Nothing stands out to say it’s significantly one sided, that’s ridiculous. The reason they’re 50-50 games is because Hawthorn have beaten Adelaide in Adelaide last year, and play well at AO generally speaking. The unknown of the Gabba since Hawthorn haven’t played there in quite some time and neutral ground game with Collingwood.

Besides the betting agencies you’ve not given any good indication that it shouldn’t be considering close/50-50 games.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Besides the betting agencies you’ve not given any good indication that it shouldn’t be considering close/50-50 games.

I don't really understand what you're saying here. Odds are a function of probability. If the betting odds have one team as favourite, by definition the probability of that team winning is more than 50% according to those setting the odds. That would be professional bookmakers that set opening markets, which are then further informed by punters placing bets. So literally 100s of eyes on it, versus your one set of eyes. Currently the market says the probability of a Hawthorn win is about 41%.
If you really think it's 50% you should be piling on the brown and gold. Or even better, could you set up a book and offer the rest of us even money on an Adelaide win? You won't be short of takers

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I don't really understand what you're saying here. Odds are a function of probability. If the betting odds have one team as favourite, by definition the probability of that team winning is more than 50% according to those setting the odds. That would be professional bookmakers that set opening markets, which are then further informed by punters placing bets. So literally 100s of eyes on it, versus your one set of eyes. Currently the market says the probability of a Hawthorn win is about 41%.
If you really think it's 50% you should be piling on the brown and gold. Or even better, could you set up a book and offer the rest of us even money on an Adelaide win? You won't be short of takers

The thing is, generally speaking the point is they’re 50-50 games or close enough to it.

Betting odds aren’t exactly science, they’re helpful sure but again taking into consideration a bunch of other things you can draw your own conclusions.

Which is who’s returning? What’s the form like of both teams? Recent history against each other? Etc

And if there isn’t a significant gap in them, then it’s likely a close / 50-50 game.

Hawthorn have had good amounts of returning players the last few weeks which will be important for their run home and finals. Their form has been strong the last 6 games for example. Their recent history against all 3 clubs mentioned is also strong.

Hence why it gets to a 50-50 game. Itll be there or there abouts

 

[The Feeder Club]

The thing is, generally speaking the point is they’re 50-50 games or close enough to it.

Betting odds aren’t exactly science, they’re helpful sure but again taking into consideration a bunch of other things you can draw your own conclusions.

Which is who’s returning? What’s the form like of both teams? Recent history against each other? Etc

And if there isn’t a significant gap in them, then it’s likely a close / 50-50 game.

Hawthorn have had good amounts of returning players the last few weeks which will be important for their run home and finals. Their form has been strong the last 6 games for example. Their recent history against all 3 clubs mentioned is also strong.

Hence why it gets to a 50-50 game. Itll be there or there abouts

I still don't understand why you would think all those factors you cite (player availability, recent form etc) aren't taken into account by those setting the odds. Like if Butters goes rogue in the showdown and concusses Adelaide's best six players so they can't play against you next week, the probability of an Adelaide win will decrease and the odds will change accordingly. But currently, it isn't a 50-50 game.

Anyway, good luck to the hawks

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I still don't understand why you would think all those factors you cite (player availability, recent form etc) aren't taken into account by those setting the odds. Like if Butters goes rogue in the showdown and concusses Adelaide's best six players so they can't play against you next week, the probability of an Adelaide win will decrease and the odds will change accordingly. But currently, it isn't a 50-50 game.

Anyway, good luck to the hawks

It does to an extent, but there’s a large unknown about it too. It’s just yet another opinion. So you can take it into consideration but it’s not the be all.

You haven’t exactly argued against what I’ve actually brought up tho.

 

[The Feeder Club]

It does to an extent, but there’s a large unknown about it too. It’s just yet another opinion. So you can take it into consideration but it’s not the be all.

You haven’t exactly argued against what I’ve actually brought up tho.

What have you brought up? The conversation started because a poster said if you did a ladder prediction based on only tipping favourites, the hawks will lose 3 of their remaining games. That's factual.

You're the one that took umbrage with facts and are trying to argue that underdogs have the same probability of winning as favourites, and that those other teams shouldn't be favourites anyway because don't people realise, Will Day is back or something.

There's nothing to argue about.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

What have you brought up? The conversation started because a poster said if you did a ladder prediction based on only tipping favourites, the hawks will lose 3 of their remaining games. That's factual.

You're the one that took umbrage with facts and are trying to argue that underdogs have the same probability of winning as favourites, and that those other teams shouldn't be favourites anyway because don't people realise, Will Day is back or something.

There's nothing to argue about.

It isn’t factual because being a favourite is subjective. Unless you use the simple definition of who is higher on the ladder.

And it’s not arguing that at all, it’s about looking into games beyond a broad spectrum.

Again as I brought up:

The idea of them being 50-50 games is that you take into consideration this years recent games, general recent games, current form, returning players etc

Who is returning? What’s the form like of both teams? Recent history against each other? Etc

And if there isn’t a significant gap in them, then it’s likely a close / 50-50 game.

The reason these are important is because it takes into account form so who’s playing well, recent history and games between the two clubs, but also looking at a teams side, who returns, who is missing.

This is done as some clubs have good records against others, which is important because there’s always the adage that teams have bogey sides, or teams who play them better than others, as an example.

The return and missing players are important, if a team has returning stars their expectations rise, if they have more outs and injuries they lower.

The point of this is that if there isn’t significant difference between the two, so both teams performing well form wise, one side have an advantage in recent games head to head, home ground advantage, and returning/missing players. Unless it’s a significant differential you can’t categorically say that it is or isn’t.

 

[HairyO]

Hawks. Lots of suspect players.

Name 6 ?

 

[cactuscall]

It isn’t factual because being a favourite is subjective. Unless you use the simple definition of who is higher on the ladder.

Semantics! It is a fact that of each game this round, one team is the favourite to win. JFC.

And no it isn't determined by ladder position, another fact.

 

[kaiserchief13]

 

[The Feeder Club]

It isn’t factual because being a favourite is subjective. Unless you use the simple definition of who is higher on the ladder.

And it’s not arguing that at all, it’s about looking into games beyond a broad spectrum.

Again as I brought up:




The reason these are important is because it takes into account form so who’s playing well, recent history and games between the two clubs, but also looking at a teams side, who returns, who is missing.

This is done as some clubs have good records against others, which is important because there’s always the adage that teams have bogey sides, or teams who play them better than others, as an example.

The return and missing players are important, if a team has returning stars their expectations rise, if they have more outs and injuries they lower.

The point of this is that if there isn’t significant difference between the two, so both teams performing well form wise, one side have an advantage in recent games head to head, home ground advantage, and returning/missing players. Unless it’s a significant differential you can’t categorically say that it is or isn’t.

You seem to have some basic comprehension problems that are beyond my capacity to reason with. I won't be replying again. Good luck to the hawks