Which side fails to play in September?

[The Nostradamus]

As long as Brisbane or Geelong win it all, I don't care

Nah this is croms year

Or another fairytale dogs year

 

[YeoShuey]

Nah this is croms year

Or another fairytale dogs year

Crows won't win the Grand Final at the MCG against Hawthorn, Brisbane, Geelong types. Just way too good those teams there.

And if Collingwood finish top 4 and they have a final at Adelaide Oval, I wouldn't be so confident they even win Week 1. That is probably the one risky matchup they cannot afford.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Crows won't win the Grand Final at the MCG against Hawthorn, Brisbane, Geelong types. Just way too good those teams there.

And if Collingwood finish top 4 and they have a final at Adelaide Oval, I wouldn't be so confident they even win Week 1. That is probably the one risky matchup they cannot afford.

Probably but I hope they do over those teams you named

They’ve won enough of late

 

[SA HAWK]

Nervous week for Freo supporters.

 

[SA HAWK]

Dogs losses this year are...

Pies @ the MCG - 6 point loss
Freo @ Optus Stadium - 16 point loss
Brisbane @ Norwood - 21 point loss
Gold Coast @ Darwin - 10 point loss
Geelong @ GMHBA - 14 point loss
Hawthorn @ Marvel - 22 point loss
Adelaide @ Marvel - 11 point loss
Brisbane @ Gabba - 10 point loss

So we really aren't that far off. Especially considering most of those games weren't at Marvel.

Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if a 5-8 side wins 2 finals or a top 4 team goes out in straight sets.

 

[Hawkk]

is this a real question? the lowest place double up side is last years grand finalists who are having a winning season in 10th

Yes it is. I’m just fascinated to understand why this is the most difficult draw in history? Is it harder than Hawthorn’s 2013 which as I said featured back to back games against all seven finalists from 2012 in the first seven rounds including away games to Perth and Adelaide in the first five? That season also featured back up games against all sides that made the finals that year (and was a 19-3, 136% year).

These are the percentages after the home and away seasons in each of the last 25 premiers

Brisbane 121%
Collingwood 129%
Geelong 144%
Melbourne 130%
Richmond 129%
Richmond 113%
West Coast 121%
Richmond 118%
W Bulldogs 119%
Hawthorn 158%
Hawthorn 141%
Hawthorn 136%
Sydney 140%
Geelong 157%
Collingwood 141%
Geelong 127%
Hawthorn 131%
Geelong 152%
West Coast 120%
Sydney 116%
Port Adelaide 132%
Brisbane 121%
Brisbane 136%
Brisbane 127%
Essendon 159%

So percentage is usually a pretty good indicator. In the years where a sub 120% team won the flag, there was not a team with a 140% percentage - so they were disproportionately even or weak years. This year, potentially three finalists could have 140% percentages (Adelaide, Geelong, W Bulldogs with Collingwood, Hawthorn and the Gold Coast around 125%)

 

[mighty_lions]

Yes it is. I’m just fascinated to understand why this is the most difficult draw in history? Is it harder than Hawthorn’s 2013 which as I said featured back to back games against all seven finalists from 2012 in the first seven rounds including away games to Perth and Adelaide in the first five? That season also featured back up games against all sides that made the finals that year (and was a 19-3, 136% year).

These are the percentages after the home and away seasons in each of the last 25 premiers

Brisbane 121%
Collingwood 129%
Geelong 144%
Melbourne 130%
Richmond 129%
Richmond 113%
West Coast 121%
Richmond 118%
W Bulldogs 119%
Hawthorn 158%
Hawthorn 141%
Hawthorn 136%
Sydney 140%
Geelong 157%
Collingwood 141%
Geelong 127%
Hawthorn 131%
Geelong 152%
West Coast 120%
Sydney 116%
Port Adelaide 132%
Brisbane 121%
Brisbane 136%
Brisbane 127%
Essendon 159%

So percentage is usually a pretty good indicator. In the years where a sub 120% team won the flag, there was not a team with a 140% percentage - so they were disproportionately even or weak years. This year, potentially three finalists could have 140% percentages (Adelaide, Geelong, W Bulldogs with Collingwood, Hawthorn and the Gold Coast around 125%)

Who cares who they played first 7 rounds that’s irrelevant, you played west coast twice that finished 13th and north Melbourne twice that finished 10th and there was 1 less double up game for you to play because there was only 5 double ups vs 6 Brisbane have played

Both west coast and north has losing seasons, I have no idea what you are on about you played 2 bottoms teams twice out of 5

One of the stupidest posts I’ve ever had to read

 

[Hawkk]

Who cares who they played first 7 rounds that’s irrelevant, you played west coast twice that finished 13th and north Melbourne twice that finished 10th and there was 1 less double up game for you to play because there was only 5 double ups vs 6 Brisbane have played

Both west coast and north has losing seasons, I have no idea what you are on about you played 2 bottoms teams twice out of 5

One of the stupidest posts I’ve ever had to read

Actually it does. Especially when you back up after an extended finals series.

Anyway let’s see where the Lions go - ‘with the most difficult draw in AFL history.’

Maybe they’ll defy history and win it with their awful percentage, being smoked by 14 goals six rounds before the start of the finals series. Or maybe they won’t. I guess we will wait and see but from a Lions perspective here is hoping they don’t have too many home finals because that could be an issue in September

For me, its quite clearly Geelong, Adelaide and then a gap to a cluster of teams that have 115-125%

 

[SA HAWK]

Hawks aren't on our level. They're an easy kill for the top 4 come finals.

Put a fit and in form Weddle & Day in our team and i would be very confident of beating Geelong.

You haven’t beaten a decent side in half a season.

Another inflated ladder position due to easy home games and an easy draw.

Only reason you are a chance.

Imagine if Smith or Holmes only played 6 games for the season no way you would be top 4.

 

[mighty_lions]

Actually it does. Especially when you back up after an extended finals series.

Anyway let’s see where the Lions go - ‘with the most difficult draw in AFL history.’

Maybe they’ll defy history and win it with their awful percentage, being smoked by 14 goals six rounds before the start of the finals series. Or maybe they won’t. I guess we will wait and see but from a Lions perspective here is hoping they don’t have too many home finals because that could be an issue in September

For me, its quite clearly Geelong, Adelaide and then a gap to a cluster of teams that have 115-125%

Who knows how we will go we might be on the same trajectory as the hawks who had the real “most difficult draw in history” in 2013 when they played 10th and 13th twice out of 5

 

[Hawkk]

Put a fit and in form Weddle & Day in our team and i would be very confident of beating Geelong.

You haven’t beaten a decent side in half a season.

Another inflated ladder position due to easy home games and an easy draw.

Only reason you are a chance.

Imagine if Smith or Holmes only played 6 games for the season no way you would be top 4.

That was up to the Carlton game…




Our record so far this season has been much better. We are 5-1 with Day (83.33%) and 10-6 without him (62.5%). So regardless of how we go for the rest of the year that shows enormous progress.

 

[Hawkk]

Who knows how we will go we might be on the same trajectory as the hawks who had the real “most difficult draw in history” in 2013 when they played 10th and 13th twice out of 5

You really could be - it’s just a shame you didn’t win 19 games, lose 3 and have a 136% season.

I’m just happy that you stole that draw in Hobart because the game needs Brisbane in the finals

But your season to date has been far from convincing. Premiership standard teams don’t get belted by 14 goals, like i said, weeks out from the finals.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Put a fit and in form Weddle & Day in our team and i would be very confident of beating Geelong.

You haven’t beaten a decent side in half a season.

Another inflated ladder position due to easy home games and an easy draw.

Only reason you are a chance.

Imagine if Smith or Holmes only played 6 games for the season no way you would be top 4.

Nonsense.
In order to have an easier portion of the draw we had to have had another section that was hard.

Before bye.

Beat Pies, Hawks, Crows, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Dogs.
First 3 away from home. Lost to both Lions and Giants by single digits. That's every club competing for finals before the bye and the 4 hardest were away from home for a 3-1 return.

Weddle has played 15 games, that's roughly 70% of games.
And isn't fit to shine the boots of Smith or Holmes.

 

[mighty_lions]

You really could be - it’s just a shame you didn’t win 19 games, lose 3 and have a 136% season.

I’m just happy that you stole that draw in Hobart because the game needs Brisbane in the finals

But your season to date has been far from convincing. Premiership standard teams don’t get belted by 14 goals, like i said, weeks out from the finals.

See what you can do with an easy draw, 19-3 not a bad season right there

 

[Hawkk]

Nonsense.
In order to have an easier portion of the draw we had to have had another section that was hard.

Before bye.

Beat Pies, Hawks, Crows, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Dogs.
First 3 away from home. Lost to both Lions and Giants by single digits. That's every club competing for finals before the bye and the 4 hardest were away from home for a 3-1 return.

Weddle has played 15 games, that's roughly 70% of games.
And isn't fit to shine the boots of Smith or Holmes.

I agree with this. Objectively Geelong has not had an easier draw that Hawthorn. It’s about line ball.

The real difference is that Geelong have belted teams (like they should) and have not thrown away games against contenders like Hawthorn (they were in winning positions against the Cats, Crows, Dockers and Suns). The Cats have a ruthless streak that Hawthorn clearly lack.

If Hawthorn miss the top 4 they really have themselves to blame for not holding on against the Suns, Dockers and Crows despite leading by 5pts, 13pts and 8pts at 3/4 time.

Edit: I just noticed that we played Fremantle, Adelaide, the Gold Coast and now Brisbane away in the space of about 12 rounds. Maybe we have claims for ‘the most difficult draw in AFL history’ too

 

[mighty_lions]

You really could be - it’s just a shame you didn’t win 19 games, lose 3 and have a 136% season.

I’m just happy that you stole that draw in Hobart because the game needs Brisbane in the finals

But your season to date has been far from convincing. Premiership standard teams don’t get belted by 14 goals, like i said, weeks out from the finals.

Who lost by 14 goals?

 

[SA HAWK]

Nonsense.
In order to have an easier portion of the draw we had to have had another section that was hard.

Before bye.

Beat Pies, Hawks, Crows, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Dogs.
First 3 away from home. Lost to both Lions and Giants by single digits. That's every club competing for finals before the bye and the 4 hardest were away from home for a 3-1 return.

Weddle has played 15 games, that's roughly 70% of games.
And isn't fit to shine the boots of Smith or Holmes.

Easy draw with easy home games and i bet you choke like you have every year except 2022 since around 2012.

You ain’t that good.

And the speed you replied is hilarious

 

[Hawkk]

See what you can do with an easy draw, 19-3 not a bad season right there

True. But even with that draw the Lions don’t get a 19-3 season. But they probably don’t draw to North either (see what I did there)

5 losses at the Gabba doesn’t help either…

 

[YeoShuey]

My preferred Premiership order at the moment.

1. Hawthorn / Geelong
2. Brisbane
3. Everyone else. No thanks.

 

[Hawkk]

Who lost by 14 goals?

Well 11 goals.

AFL Tables - Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions - Sat, 26-Jul-2025 1:20 PM - Match Stats

Doesn’t change much though. Not many teams lose a round 21 game by 11 goals and salute later in the season. Even with ‘the most difficult draw in VFL/AFL history.’

Like I said, on demonstrated form they are a long way behind Adelaide and Geelong.

 

[SA HAWK]

Well 11 goals.

AFL Tables - Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions - Sat, 26-Jul-2025 1:20 PM - Match Stats

Doesn’t change much though. Not many teams lose a round 21 game by 11 goals and salute later in the season. Even with ‘the most difficult draw in VFL/AFL history.’

Like I said, on demonstrated form they are a long way behind Adelaide and Geelong.

Their draw has been very tough and mounting injuries are tough.

If they go back to back will be one of the great premierships.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Easy draw with easy home games and i bet you choke like you have every year except 2022 since around 2012.

You ain’t that good.

And the speed you replied is hilarious

Late night football my man.
Wasn't even the first to reply.

And so what if we are? We give ourselves a shot every year.
Much better than rebuilding for 5-8 years for a 3-4 year window where you hope you get it together like a lot of other clubs.

Trying to knock a club that gives its fans finals football every year isn't the crushing blow you think it should be.

 

[Hawkk]

Their draw has been very tough and mounting injuries are tough.

If they go back to back will be one of the great premierships.

No doubting that. My argument is that on demonstrated form I have doubts they will.

It’s also why I’m not sold on our chances this year either — percentage, top 4 for attack and defence is a better indicator than wins and losses imo.

 

[mighty_lions]

Well 11 goals.

AFL Tables - Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions - Sat, 26-Jul-2025 1:20 PM - Match Stats

Doesn’t change much though. Not many teams lose a round 21 game by 11 goals and salute later in the season. Even with ‘the most difficult draw in VFL/AFL history.’

Like I said, on demonstrated form they are a long way behind Adelaide and Geelong.

We’ve beaten Geelong twice and Adelaide I have no idea how we ended up losing

There have been 20 instances of premiers losing by more than what we have including Richmond in 2017

 

[SA HAWK]

Late night football my man.
Wasn't even the first to reply.

And so what if we are? We give ourselves a shot every year.
Much better than rebuilding for 5-8 years for a 3-4 year window where you hope you get it together like a lot of other clubs.

Trying to knock a club that gives its fans finals football every year isn't the crushing blow you think it should be.

Credit to the club for that not knocking them at all.

Your supporters have a smug superior attitude and can **** right off.