Pies and lions pretty tough assignment we haven't got it done against the top teams all year.
Close but not cigar.
I think Freo will win 3 games Gws a chance to lose away against the Suns can't see Dogs losing again.
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Which side fails to play in September?
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Close but not cigar.
I think Freo will win 3 games Gws a chance to lose away against the Suns can't see Dogs losing again.
- Oct 5, 2023
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50 50 hey dewwwwy.
Lol.
Lol.
Bro you literally said it yourself “if hawthorn win “it still wouldn’t of been a 50-50” but they lose and you come in acting all high and mighty.
After the first quarter you probably felt like an idiot, the second you felt like the smartest man ever and the third you weren’t sure.
Hence why it was a 50/50 game, could’ve went either way in the end and it was 14 points.
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They don’t have the easier draw than Freo or GWS. That’s the difference.
Freo’s is still harder than others but they’ve got Carlton, Port, Lions then Dogs.
GWS have North, Suns and Saints
Hawks have Pies, Dees then Lion.
Absolutely brutal run home.
I know which two runs Home I’d be picking and it ain’t the Hawks lol.
They’re screwed if results go as expected
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Agreed.
Multiple possibilities still but I think our best hope is that GWS loses away to the Suns and we knock off one of Collingwood or Brisbane, consigning GWS to 9th on %.
That was never going to go either way. Hawks have proven to fade against good teams in final quarters recently. Bookies knew that, Adelaide knew that, Bigfooty knew it too. Hence Adelaide, in great form, at home, were the favourites and that's how it played out.Hence why it was a 50/50 game, could’ve went either way in the end and it was 14 points.
Dewyyyy's reaction when his mates ask him who's the favourite to win in any given game:
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If the hawks cant beat one of Pies/Brisbane we simply dont deserve to be there
The record would be
1-1 crows
0-2 pies
0-2 Brisbane
0-1 Geelong
0-1 Fremantle
1-0 Giants
1-0 dogs
0-1 Gold Coast
3-8 doesnt cut it despite going 11-1 against the bottom 10
Yeah no
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New username should be the Oracle. Absolutely nailed it.
He’ll say odds know best until it doesn’t benefit his personal perspective.
Adelaide favourites by the bookies = correct and odds are all that matters
Dogs favourites by the bookies = super wrong and shouldn’t be favourites
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Suns can get top 4 if they win all their games and Lions drop one. I don't see lions losing to pies and Dockers. One and one at worst I think. I kind of feel whoever wins pies vs lions will win the premiership. The flag will come from crows, pies or lions.
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Since 2021 we've had team outside the 4 make prelims or better.
2021 Bulldogs made granny
2022 lions made prelims
2023 GWS blues made prelims
2024 lions won flag
Can a team outside the 4 do it again. gws made granny in 2019 also and dees in 2018 made prelims. Dogs in 16 won it. Roos made prelims both 14 and 15.
2021 Bulldogs made granny
2022 lions made prelims
2023 GWS blues made prelims
2024 lions won flag
Can a team outside the 4 do it again. gws made granny in 2019 also and dees in 2018 made prelims. Dogs in 16 won it. Roos made prelims both 14 and 15.
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JHF1870
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The way it looks.
Hawks have to win 2 games/3 and only one is realistic. If Dogs beat Freo they will need to overtakes GWS
Dogs have 14 games for sure. Possibly 15
Freo 15-16
GWS 15
GC 17 wins
Cats 17 wins
Brisbane 15.5 to 16.5
Hawks have to win 2 games/3 and only one is realistic. If Dogs beat Freo they will need to overtakes GWS
Dogs have 14 games for sure. Possibly 15
Freo 15-16
GWS 15
GC 17 wins
Cats 17 wins
Brisbane 15.5 to 16.5
I know what you are saying but I think it's a bit more nuanced than that this year.
Firstly, Hawthorn could win one of those games (for 15 wins) and still miss the finals. IN the 30+ years of the final 8 system, 12 wins has almost always been enough and 13 wins has never missed. Whichever team misses out with 14 or even 15 wins can consider themselves very unlucky.
The next nuance to consider is that according to your data, Hawthorn are 2-2 with teams in the 5-8 bracket, with both of the losses being very close and played interstate. That tells me that at worst Hawthorn are on par with the sides in the 5-8 bracket.
However, the most pertinent point of your data is it shows that Hawthorn will have played 7 games against the top 4. That is much more than any other side. No one should 'blame the draw' but when 2 wins separate 1st and 8th (as they do now), 2 easy fixtures vs 2 top 4 fixtures can mean the difference between minor premiers and missing finals altogether. The closeness of the ladder across the top 9 is unprecedented so I'm not sure it is so easy to say this year that the side that misses out is undeserving. Many of the sides in the 8 have similarly poor records against fellow top 8 teams and those that have better records, have coughed up bad losses to bottom 10 teams in a way that the Hawks haven't, hence the closeness of the ladder between all these sides.
I think the better way of looking at it is that there are 9 deserving sides this year but only 8 can make it (which is probably better than some seasons when there are only 5-6 deserving sides and the others fall in cos 8 have to make it)
BigPond101
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Freo will lose their last 3 games not sure where that leaves them but even if they make finals it will be a 10 goal belting and 3 year JL contract extension.
And for anyone who says "nah Freo will beat Port easily in Adelaide bro" you haven't been following Freo as long as I have and you have no idea happy to help
And for anyone who says "nah Freo will beat Port easily in Adelaide bro" you haven't been following Freo as long as I have and you have no idea happy to help
It is possible that Collingwood could be the team on 15 wins to miss.
Hawthorn then Adelaide could easily be losses and then they need to beat Melbourne in the last round to get beyond 15 wins. Would give Melbourne great motivation.
Lots still to play out.
Hawthorn then Adelaide could easily be losses and then they need to beat Melbourne in the last round to get beyond 15 wins. Would give Melbourne great motivation.
Lots still to play out.
It is a shame that it won't be Collingwood that misses out, as they are clearly the worst side of the top nine teams.
They will get steamrolled by whatever teams play them in the finals, and then they will be gone.
They will get steamrolled by whatever teams play them in the finals, and then they will be gone.
Piggy Smalls
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Have you considered therapy?
Hawthorn will either win the 2025 premiership or not qualify for finals at all
There is no in between.
There is no in between.
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The Feeder Club
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Don't see it happening this year. I just think the top 4 this season are clearly a level above the rest. Freo, GWS etc can be deadly on their day, but I can't see them stringing together 4 finals wins.
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True, I mean its not that unusual for a 5-8 side to make a prelim.
Not sure how you reach that conclusion.
I don't even know who the top 4 will be.
Adelaide should be top 2 from here and Geelong have a fixture that basically sets them into top 4 with a series of soft wins.
Collingwood are struggling and Brisbane have work to do still. Gold Coast can finish top 4.
Actually think there are definitely 9 chances still.
HeHateMe
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So you guys won by 27 off the back of a dominant last quarter compared to hawks winning by 24 off the back off a dominant first quarter.... Should we be reading into this or nahhh now the shoes on the other foot.
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