Which side is closer to a premiership - Carlton or Essendon?

[JayJ20]

Agreed.
But we all know if the losses continue to mount this season there will need to be a fall guy.
Rutten is the “outsider” and will be fed to the lions … nothing surer …

If Essendon haven't changed, then we'll see Rutten kicked out at the end of the year for Clarkson on a huge salary that results in an underdeveloped coaching department because Clarkson's salary is eating up a big chunk of the soft cap. All of this to mitigate the potential reduction in memberships and attendances next year so that the CEO, board members and list managers can save themselves. Then we'll all celebrate an 8th placed finish next year because of the hype Clarkson brings and everyone will call his appointment a success despite another EF thrashing.
Then the year after will see another massive drop now that the hype has settled and it's panic again as if we haven't seen this happen before.

 

[Red Bull]

If Essendon haven't changed, then we'll see Rutten kicked out at the end of the year for Clarkson on a huge salary that results in an underdeveloped coaching department because Clarkson's salary is eating up a big chunk of the soft cap. All of this to mitigate the potential reduction in memberships and attendances next year so that the CEO, board members and list managers can save themselves. Then we'll all celebrate an 8th placed finish next year because of the hype Clarkson brings and everyone will call his appointment a success despite another EF thrashing.
Then the year after will see another massive drop now that the hype has settled and it's panic again as if we haven't seen this happen before.

And all the while, the inner circle continue to have each other’s back’s.
Dodoro promoted to the executive.
Sheedy promoted to immortal.
Madden and Wellman running another internal review.
The old coterie man Brasher giving Harvey to the liniment sniffer’s.
Then there’s the efc media mafia, Watson, Sarah Jones etc continuously banging the drum … it’s bloody beautiful to watch

 

[Falcon3518]

I’m going to go the dark horse option and go Essendon. I have a feeling Blues might do a port Adelaide and have 3-4 years of being a genuine contender but not win a premiership and then drop back down again. Meanwhile bombers are going to get the good picks now, and in 4/5 years when their players hit their prime they’ll win a flag. They are a very young team and the players which will form the next core are around the same age which you need for a proper flag tilt.

 

[morningbrown]

I’m going to go the dark horse option and go Essendon. I have a feeling Blues might do a port Adelaide and have 3-4 years of being a genuine contender but not win a premiership and then drop back down again. Meanwhile bombers are going to get the good picks now, and in 4/5 years when their players hit their prime they’ll win a flag. They are a very young team and the players which will form the next core are around the same age which you need for a proper flag tilt.

Weird prediction but okay. What's causing us to be a perennial contender but not win one? And how are the group of Curnow/Cripps/McKay etc all picked up within a few years not any different to the mystery draftees that Essendon are getting in the future?

 

[Havoc]

Not sure which but you might be waiting a while for either of them to win a premiership.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Not sure which but you might be waiting a while for either of them to win a premiership.

Aye. All the evidence to date suggests the 21stC will not prove memorable for either Club.

 

[Havoc]

Aye. All the evidence to date suggests the 21stC will not prove memorable for either Club.

I remember reading these discussions 10 years ago. Neither club is any closer to a flag now than they were 10 years ago.

 

[Ambrosia]

I’m of the belief A Grade talent wins flags.

Curnow and Cripps answered the injury related questions that hung over their heads before this season and are clearly genuine A graders.

Conversely Stringers body has failed him and his scintillating form from the latter half of 2021 may never be seen again. Also whilst I think Shiel is quite underrated on here it’s clear that the trio of him plus Parish and Merrett isn’t what’s going to catapult Essendon into premiership calculations.

Docherty also joined Saad as one of the best in his position whereas Hind has had a down year leaving Redman’s improvement as more of a net neutral for Essendon. Ridley has also had a fairly average year although it’s very hard to defend in Essendon’s backline.

I prefer Essendon’s up and coming youth in Perkins, Jones, Cox, Durham, Hobbs to the Carlton equivalents but you’d say on the balance of probability the likelihood of any of them reaching Weitering/Curnow/Walsh levels is pretty low.

So to answer the thread question it’s clearly Carlton at this stage.

 

[Milanista28]

Lol Carlton

 

[Deadly Assassin]

Lol Carlton

Essendon aren't much better and I won't be surprised if we overtake both clubs on the premiership ladder in the next 10 years.

 

[Milanista28]

Essendon aren't much better and I won't be surprised if we overtake both clubs on the premiership ladder in the next 10 years.

We suck, your best chance at a flag is this year, next couple years you won't be top 4.

 

[catstorm]

I remember reading these discussions 10 years ago. Neither club is any closer to a flag now than they were 10 years ago.

Yeah but it's hard to tell, 10 years ago Richmond was part of these conversations. Since then you have won 3 flags, so who knows, a club can go from basket case to premiership threat in as little as 2-3 seasons.

 

[evo]

Its not that bad. 2 flags, 4 GFs (3 i went to)
I spent my teens knowing a successful club.
I dont think long suffering kicks in until at least 30 years between flags.

By the time I was 13 Richmond had won 5 flags, then came the 37 years...

 

[citizen-erased]

By the time I was 13 Richmond had won 5 flags, then came the 37 years...

More than halfway there then viva 2038

 

[Black Haze]

Essendon are closer because as bad as they've been, they've still made finals 4 times since the last time Carlton played finals.

It goes without saying they've both been terrible for 20 years, however;

Essendon have made finals 8 times in the last 20 years.
Carlton have made finals 4 times in the last 20 years.

Carlton have also won 5 wooden spoons compared to Essendon's 1.

Having said that, I doubt either of them will win a flag in the next 10 years.

 

[Robertio]

Essendon are closer because as bad as they've been, they've still made finals 4 times since the last time Carlton played finals.

It goes without saying they've both been terrible for 20 years, however;

Essendon have made finals 8 times in the last 20 years.
Carlton have made finals 4 times in the last 20 years.

Carlton have also won 5 wooden spoons compared to Essendon's 1.

Having said that, I doubt either of them will win a flag in the next 10 years.

So Essendon are closer because of what's happened in the past?

 

[Pistol Night]

Ill go with the club with a coach

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

Having said that, I doubt either of them will win a flag in the next 10 years.

If that's the case (and I think you're more likely right than wrong), it's hard to argue one is closer than another.

 

[LoungeLizard]

So Essendon are closer because of what's happened in the past?

Is that what you got out of that post, I got none are close.

 

[Robertio]

Is that what you got out of that post, I got none are close.

I read the whole lot mate, should've stopped at the first line.

 

[citizen-erased]

Blues have the developed spine & midfield to compete as it is

Dons spine is both young & undetermined.
Zerk-Thatcher looks to be one KPD (took 4 seasons to finally have a good back 1/3 of a season....lets see what 2023 brings). The other KPD could be any one of Reid, Cox, Eyre, Brand or someone not on the list

Both rucks are young and developing (Draper and Bryan)

KPF is Wright (happy with him at FF), Jones (CHF or 3rd tall?) & unknown on the CHF front. We went for Marshall, Curnow, King, McKay & Lobb. So clearly an area of need.

Midfield has talent but it's imbalanced. Really need a taller, inside blocking mid who is less ball-hunter/clearance orientated and more defensive minded.
Stocker I feel gives us more of what we have in Caldwell and Parish.
Dunkley & De Goey are the two targets that would sort that out if we weren't such a shambles.....still...$2m a year to play with on this front.

 

[chunkylover53]

Yeah but it's hard to tell, 10 years ago Richmond was part of these conversations. Since then you have won 3 flags, so who knows, a club can go from basket case to premiership threat in as little as 2-3 seasons.

We've seen teams such as Sydney, Melbourne, Bulldogs & Richmond break their Premiership drought in the modern era and fans still can't base predictions on anything but the past.

In 2011 Melbourne lost to Geelong by 180 points, winning just 8 games and finishing 13th.

In 2012, they finished 16th and won 4 games
In 2013, they finished 17th and won 2 games
In 2014, they finished 17th and won 4 games

They won the flag 7 years later and are now regular contenders.

Carlton won 12 games this year, and people still definitively say that they won't win a flag in the next decade.

 

[Black Haze]

If that's the case (and I think you're more likely right than wrong), it's hard to argue one is closer than another.

I still don't see Carlton or Essendon winning a flag in the next 10 years.

 

[boncer34]

I still don't see Carlton or Essendon winning a flag in the next 10 years.

Cool

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I still don't see Carlton or Essendon winning a flag in the next 10 years.

Every team in the competition can win a flag in the next 10 years. Ridiculous thing to say.