Which team from the bottom 8 will be the bolter of 2020

PurpleThunder

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Oct 12, 2019
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Decent options for wing, such as?

From an outside (and non-WA) perspective it feels to me that Freo hasn't been this bad since pre 2003.
Stephen Hill if fit. Bewley is having a very strong pre-season. There's other players who can potentially rotate through like Acres.

If you think this is the worst list since pre-2003 you really don't know what you're talking about. It's miles better then the start of rebuild lists around 2017 or 2008.
 

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Capriati

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Stephen Hill if fit. Bewley is having a very strong pre-season. There's other players who can potentially rotate through like Acres.

If you think this is the worst list since pre-2003 you really don't know what you're talking about. It's miles better then the start of rebuild lists around 2017 or 2008.
You're right that I don't really know enough about all things Fremantle to make an assessment, hence why I asked the question.

I didn't mean the list is at it's worst, but the club as a whole. My assessment was on the basis that Fremantle have just lost 2 of their best players who are right in the window to be in the prime of their careers, plus getting rid of important people at the club this year in the CEO and Senior Coach as well as using an entire year of draft picks + significant 2020 deficit on 3 good picks that may not be ready for AFL in 2020. All of those things led me to belief that things will get worse for Freo in 2020 before they start to get better.

As a Fremantle fan, what would you consider the 'pass mark' for Freo in 2020?
 
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La Dispute

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I think it’s too early for Carlton to push into the 8. Some like to look at Brisbane’s ascension and equate their back half of 2018 with our back half of 2019, but the reality is their rise is the exception rather than the rule.

We will push and beat some good teams, but we will also lose to plenty of lower ranked teams which is symptomatic of reasonably young teams following a few hideous developmental years.
 

PurpleThunder

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You're right that I don't really know enough about all things Fremantle to make an assessment, hence why I asked the question.

I didn't mean the list is at it's worst, but the club as a whole. My assessment was on the basis that Fremantle have just lost 2 of their best players who are right in the window to be in the prime of their careers, plus getting rid of important people at the club this year in the CEO and Senior Coach as well as using an entire year of draft picks + significant 2020 deficit on 3 good picks that may not be ready for AFL in 2020. All of those things led me to belief that things will get worse for Freo in 2020 before they start to get better.

As a Fremantle fan, what would you consider the 'pass mark' for Freo in 2020?
We sacked a coach and CEO we didn't believe were right for the club. It would have been far worse if we kept them on regardless. Garlick has previous experience at the Bulldogs, so I'm not particularly worried on that end. J-Lo I have some concerns about, but that's because he's a new coach, so no idea whether he'll be a Pagan or Drum or anything in between. It'll be premature to say he's going to lead the club to ruin.

Ed Langdon I'm not too fussed about. As I mentioned I think his loss will be covered by Aish, and I can do without that godawful kicking. Brad Hill hurts, but a fit Stephen Hill would minimise that damage by quite a bit. Also he'd be towards the backend of his prime, not entering it.

The performances shouldn't decline. As I said one of those two wings should be covered, and losing Hill will probably mean dropping back to being average there rather then great. Plus we get back Hogan, Taberner and Pearce which is a huge positive compared to where we were at the backend of this season. Brayshaw and Cerra should both be significantly better, and provided we're getting that development from the kids we already had before this draft we'll be a better team despite the losses.

Pass mark should still be competing for that finals berth towards the back end of the season.
 

Capriati

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We sacked a coach and CEO we didn't believe were right for the club. It would have been far worse if we kept them on regardless. Garlick has previous experience at the Bulldogs, so I'm not particularly worried on that end. J-Lo I have some concerns about, but that's because he's a new coach, so no idea whether he'll be a Pagan or Drum or anything in between. It'll be premature to say he's going to lead the club to ruin.

Ed Langdon I'm not too fussed about. As I mentioned I think his loss will be covered by Aish, and I can do without that godawful kicking. Brad Hill hurts, but a fit Stephen Hill would minimise that damage by quite a bit. Also he'd be towards the backend of his prime, not entering it.

The performances shouldn't decline. As I said one of those two wings should be covered, and losing Hill will probably mean dropping back to being average there rather then great. Plus we get back Hogan, Taberner and Pearce which is a huge positive compared to where we were at the backend of this season. Brayshaw and Cerra should both be significantly better, and provided we're getting that development from the kids we already had before this draft we'll be a better team despite the losses.

Pass mark should still be competing for that finals berth towards the back end of the season.
All those things suggest a lack of stability at the club which doesn't bode well for Fremantle in the immediate future i.e. 2020. I just had a look at betting markets and they have Freo 17th in odds to make the top 8 in 2020 at $7 behind Adelaide at $5 and in front of the Suns at $21. I think all the new people from CEO down to the players will be great for Freo over the next 2+ years, I'm just not convinced that it will have immediate results. I guess it is just one of those things that we will have to agree to disagree and see how things pan out next season.
 

TheShardMan

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Im expecting us to struggle this year. 6-7 wins imo. transition year, new coach, 2 of top 5 in bnf leaving, lots of youth, etc.

ive prepares myself for bottom 4. and im fine with it. 2021 is when we'll start pushing.
 

Wayne Swan

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Carlton, I don't know anything about them but their supporters talk up their list like it's flag quality so they must make the eight as a minimum.

For every team that pushes up into the eight, a team has to drop out, who is dropping out?
 

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HairyO

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Saints have accumulated some great coaching staff and picked up some top players. Would be very surprised if they didnt move up a fair bit.

Hawks only need minor improvement to get in to the 8. 5 through 8 seems far more likely than top 4.
 

freo1

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You're right that I don't really know enough about all things Fremantle to make an assessment, hence why I asked the question.

I didn't mean the list is at it's worst, but the club as a whole. My assessment was on the basis that Fremantle have just lost 2 of their best players who are right in the window to be in the prime of their careers, plus getting rid of important people at the club this year in the CEO and Senior Coach as well as using an entire year of draft picks + significant 2020 deficit on 3 good picks that may not be ready for AFL in 2020. All of those things led me to belief that things will get worse for Freo in 2020 before they start to get better.

As a Fremantle fan, what would you consider the 'pass mark' for Freo in 2020?

Losing Hill is a loss, but Langdon was not "one of our best players". Anyone who thinks that obviously didn't watch any Freo games. His skills were deplorable and we will be better without him. He was great at receiving the ball and breaking lines but he would consistently put the ball onto the chest of an opponent, by which time all his team mates were running forward to create options. His turnovers were deadly to us. Having a poorly skilled winger is like using Hayden Ballantyne as your key forward, doesn't work.

Freo's issue is depth, which we are building nicely. Until we lost our spine with injury last year we were in the 8 and doing ok to probably finish 7th or 8th. Any team who loses their spine is in trouble. we had out Pearce, Hogan, Tabener, Cox, Ryan and Wilson for the back end of the season.

It's an "if" but if we stay fit and players develop as they should Freo wont be world beaters but will be alright.
 

juss

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Bolter implies a big jump into the 8 and I think Melbourne coming from 17th hit that brief well.

Just don't know how much they have learnt over the successful year of 2018 and the failure of 2019. If they have worked things out then I think the side is talented enough to make the big jump.

Those that just missed the 8 like Hawks for example I wouldn't classify as a bolter because even if they make the 8, realistically weren't that far off and will only be jumping a few spots.
 

Freomaniac

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What makes you think freo will significantly improve?

I think that Fremantle will go backwards due to the loss of Hill and Langdon, however like this year could still get a couple of good wins against top teams at home


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Ah the bigfooty bastardization philiosiphy.

In 2018, freo finished 14th with 8 wins with no tall forwards in our forwardline.

In 2019, we were Predicted to finish bottom 2, hell wooden spooners despite getting a key forward in Jesse Hogan and Key forward/ruckman in rory lobb.

Despite losing hill and Langdon, I still think our current best 22 is good enough to feed the fowardline to kick 12-15 goals a game.
 

Pykie

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North Melbourne play winning football. Short on quality defenders and depth in my eyes, but a friendly run with injuries should see them improve greatly
I don’t think we’re short on depth at all, the depth has just been completely destroyed by season long injuries over the last 2 seasons.

Our VFL side will be bloody formidable if we can just get 85% of the list fit at single point in time.
 

Dez!

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Pretty confident we will be back playing finals, got nearly everyone doing a full pre-season which will do wonders plus adding ready-made guys like Langdon and Tomlinson (more Langdon) with some young faces like Jackson, Pickett and Rivers.
 

Capriati

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I’m liking what I am hear coming out of north Melbourne.

There was an article in the herald sun today and it sounds like there is a big focus on discipline and effort. Rhys has had some time to settle in to his new role as head coach and got some good wins and experience under his belt going into a new season. Good signs for 2020


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Capriati

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Ah the bigfooty bastardization philiosiphy.

In 2018, freo finished 14th with 8 wins with no tall forwards in our forwardline.

In 2019, we were Predicted to finish bottom 2, hell wooden spooners despite getting a key forward in Jesse Hogan and Key forward/ruckman in rory lobb.

Despite losing hill and Langdon, I still think our current best 22 is good enough to feed the fowardline to kick 12-15 goals a game.
Supporters of every bottom 8 team are in this thread saying exactly the same thing as you ‘IF x happens we are in with a shot’.

All I’m saying is In my opinion Freo is not one of the front runners for a big leap in 2020 because;

a) new coach without senior coach experience yet- needs some time to settle in to his new role
B) introducing a new game plan (you would think moving away from RtB game style under new coach)
C) losing 2 players who were in the prime early mid 20’s age -Feel free to talk down Langdons ball use, he was solid best 22 for freo

Dockers are on the right track, I just think that 2020 is a year too early.
 

Rod Stroker

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To the team that we fielded most weeks this year (to get us to 9 wins), we could potentially add any or all of (with games played for us this year in brackets):

Hill (0)
Ryder (0)
Jones (0)
Howard (0)
Butler (0)

Roberton (0)
King (0)
Bytel (0)
Hannebery (5)
Geary (5)
Webster (8)

With Bruce, Newnes and Acres being the only regulars this year that we've lost so far.

By round 23 we could also have as many as 17 on our list who have played 100 games, so we're starting to get our list profile to the stage where we need to be contending for finals.

Finally, we played just 11 games at Marvel this year, whereas we have 14 there next season, which ought to help. Especially as we're likely to field a much quicker team.
For me the question mark on the Saints rising is their forward line, kicking enough goals to win games. Bruce is a big loss, Ryder is not a natural forward or noted goal kicker (only averages 0.7 goals a game), and King hasn't played a game yet.
 

aussierulesrules

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For me the question mark on the Saints rising is their forward line, kicking enough goals to win games. Bruce is a big loss, Ryder is not a natural forward or noted goal kicker (only averages 0.7 goals a game), and King hasn't played a game yet.
Yeah obviously our forward line will be different next season, but the thing is that it's not just Bruce out from there and a King/Ryder in, it's Bruce AND Acres out, and say King and Ryder in.

And while Bruce kicked 36 goals from his 22 games, Acres (who effectively played that 3rd-tall marking and/or forward/ruck role a lot in the last two seasons) kicked just 6 goals, from his 19 games (playing mostly forward).

So between the two of them, they kicked 42 goals, from 41 games. So a goal a game.

Ryder this season (despite still doing so much rucking that he got 381 hitouts), kicked 15 goals from his 17 games- so almost a goal a game- and I don't imagine it will be any great stretch for King to average a goal a game (especially given what we saw by the supposedly inferior Ben this year), so while Bruce's goals will be missed, a lot of that will hopefully be cancelled out by how many more goals we'll get from the likes of King/Ryder/Marshall/Battle, compared to the 0.3 per game we got from Acres this year.
 

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