Which team from the bottom 8 will be the bolter of 2020

[n1ck]

"While ladder positioning and percentage have been helpful, simply looking at a team's win totals from the season prior provides excellent insight for clubs looking to crash the Finals party.

And it appears as though 9-10 wins is that 'sweet spot' constituting 22 of the 55 (40%) teams that made the leap. Here, four teams qualify from last year's ladder with all of St Kilda, Fremantle, North Melbourne and Adelaide fitting the win-profile of a team perhaps on the verge of returning to September."

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl...ioned-to-leapfrog-into-the-afl-finals-in-2020

 

[Billy ray]

Hi

 

[nacnud]

I didn't realise there was an assistant coach cull. Who are Melbourne's assistants? Chaplin still there?

Yeah Chaplin's still there, he switched to backline coach. Alan Richardson has come in while we switched a few assistants to different roles, eg. Justin Plapp becoming forwards coach and Max Rooke becoming a development coach (the club hasn't fully updated this on their website, idk why) while Rawlings, Mccartney, Todd viney and Craig Jennings have left. * knows who's replaced them though. As far as I know, the overall number of assistants has been trimmed down as well.

 

[MrFujiMoto]

I think to say injuries are the reason for why we were so s**t last year is too simplistic. Rather, most of our team were very underdone and unfit relative to other teams stemming from inadequate preseason training due to a large number of off season surgeries. Hence why we were in many games until the fourth quarter when the team was supposedly run off their feet.

I don’t think the club are treating this as an excuse, hence the turnover of most of the assistant coaching group.
I’m still pissed off after last year but I can see why we were so poor. There’ll certainly be no excuses for this year either, and if we s**t the bed again I implore everyone on BF to bash the club because poor performances just won’t be acceptable.

Injuries do take their toll for sure. My point was more to illustrate the top teams work out ways to cover them, if they can. Positional changes or game plan changes, both of which take a highly skilled and drilled team to implement and make successful, are two areas that I think are important where the really top sides have an advantage. Other than personnel of course

 

[nacnud]

Injuries do take their toll for sure. My point was more to illustrate the top teams work out ways to cover them, if they can. Positional changes or game plan changes, both of which take a highly skilled and drilled team to implement and make successful, are two areas that I think are important where the really top sides have an advantage. Other than personnel of course

Yeah fair, my comment was more directed at Dez! who seemed to imply that it was just injuries as the reason to why we were so poor last year.

 

[Dez!]

Yeah fair, my comment was more directed at Dez! who seemed to imply that it was just injuries as the reason to why we were so poor last year.

And they were along with close to no pre-season for a majority of our best 22 players.

 

[Bring-Back-Powell]

Gold Coast will play finals footy this year and win an elimination final.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Injuries do take their toll for sure. My point was more to illustrate the top teams work out ways to cover them, if they can. Positional changes or game plan changes, both of which take a highly skilled and drilled team to implement and make successful, are two areas that I think are important where the really top sides have an advantage. Other than personnel of course

I never considered us a top team though. We've played finals once in 12 years, and even though we played in a prelim, we finished 5th in the home and away only guaranteed a finals spot in the 2nd last round. Then we went back to 2nd last. So really, we were never a top team.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Gold Coast will play finals footy this year and win an elimination final.

Is your name Biff Tannen? If so, I'm putting my house on this prediction...

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Crows will have put the whole camp gate to rest, have enough talent to rebound quickly and back into the 8

 

[Holy Rioli]

Yep, Ninthorn with a 108.74% 7th best in 2019, total injustice, humiliated the GWS Giants twice.

Umpires against your mob in R2 is the only reason we didn't play finals.

 

[Yojimbo]

Umpires against your mob in R2 is the only reason we didn't play finals.

When you were 30+ points up in the game in Round 2 I am going to assume they were the same umpires
and they did not just change them in the last quarter. I thought you had two on field generals on the
bench injured and your system failed, then Sicily went a bit Ken Bruce. You should always win those
games, but there is a trend if you go back to the semi in 2016 of Hawthorn being overrun.

 

[MrFujiMoto]

When you were 30+ points up in the game in Round 2 I am going to assume they were the same umpires
and they did not just change them in the last quarter. I thought you had two on field generals on the
bench injured and your system failed, then Sicily went a bit Ken Bruce. You should always win those
games, but there is a trend if you go back to the semi in 2016 of Hawthorn being overrun.

Should never have dropped that game. Umpires or not. Our System fell down terribly

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I guess it's the Swans?

 

[RUNVS]

I guess it's the Swans?

Two rounds in. Right now I would be happy if we get somewhat near the finals.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Two rounds in. Right now I would be happy if we get somewhat near the finals.

Folks are eager to draw a line through the rest of them.

 

[HairyO]

Folks are eager to draw a line through the rest of them.

By round 3 or 4 the top 10 is pretty much set.

 

[CarterS]

Still think it'll be Melbourne and to a lesser extent Fremantle.

 

[Final Siren]

By round 3 or 4 the top 10 is pretty much set.

Last year, the Top 10 after Round 4 included Gold Coast (2nd --> 14th), Hawthorn (4th --> 15th), Essendon (8th --> 13th), and North Melbourne (9th --> 17th).

They were replaced by four teams from R4's Bottom 6! Richmond (14th --> 3rd), West Coast (16th --> 5th), the Bulldogs (13th --> 7th), and Melbourne (15th --> 9th).

 

[HairyO]

Last year, the Top 10 after Round 4 included Gold Coast (2nd --> 14th), Hawthorn (4th --> 15th), Essendon (8th --> 13th), and North Melbourne (9th --> 17th).

They were replaced by four teams from R4's Bottom 6! Richmond (14th --> 3rd), West Coast (16th --> 5th), the Bulldogs (13th --> 7th), and Melbourne (15th --> 9th).

How about any other year in the last 20 where there wasnt a global pandemic ?

 

[Final Siren]

How about any other year in the last 20 where there wasnt a global pandemic ?

Last year people were saying the Top 8 was probably locked in even earlier, because there were fewer rounds!

Here is the last ten years (Round 4 --> end of home & away):

2011 St Kilda 13th --> 6th
2011 North Melbourne 16th --> 9th
2011 Fremantle 4th --> 11th
2011 Melbourne 7th --> 13th
2012 Collingwood 12th --> 4th
2012 Essendon 3rd --> 11th
2013 Carlton 13th --> 9th
2013 North Melbourne 11th --> 10th
2013 Adelaide 8th --> 11th
2013 St Kilda 10th --> 16th
2014 Sydney 13th --> 1st
2014 Richmond 14th --> 8th
2014 Adelaide 15th --> 10th
2014 Collingwood 9th --> 11th
2014 Western Bulldogs 10th --> 14th
2014 Greater Western Sydney 8th --> 16th
2015 Port Adelaide 13th --> 9th
2015 Geelong 16th --> 10th
2015 Greater Western Sydney 2nd --> 11th
2015 Collingwood 3rd --> 12th
2016 St Kilda 12th --> 9th
2016 Port Adelaide 11th --> 10th
2016 Melbourne 10th --> 11th
2016 Gold Coast 5th --> 15th
2017 Sydney 16th --> 6th
2017 Essendon 11th --> 7th
2017 St Kilda 10th --> 11th
2017 Gold Coast 9th --> 17th
2018 Melbourne 12th --> 5th
2018 Adelaide 9th --> 12th
2019 Richmond 13th --> 3rd
2019 Essendon 12th --> 8th
2019 Port Adelaide 11th --> 10th
2019 Fremantle 7th --> 13th
2019 St Kilda 5th --> 14th
2019 Gold Coast 6th --> 18th
2020 Richmond 14th --> 3rd
2020 West Coast 16th --> 5th
2020 Western Bulldogs 13th --> 7th
2020 Melbourne 15th --> 9th
2020 Essendon 8th --> 13th
2020 Gold Coast 2nd --> 14th
2020 Hawthorn 4th --> 15th
2020 North Melbourne 9th --> 17th

 

[HairyO]

Last year people were saying the Top 8 was probably locked in even earlier, because there were fewer rounds!

Here is the last ten years (Round 4 --> end of home & away):

2011 St Kilda 13th --> 6th
2011 North Melbourne 16th --> 9th
2011 Fremantle 4th --> 11th
2011 Melbourne 7th --> 13th
2012 Collingwood 12th --> 4th
2012 Essendon 3rd --> 11th
2013 Carlton 13th --> 9th
2013 North Melbourne 11th --> 10th
2013 Adelaide 8th --> 11th
2013 St Kilda 10th --> 16th
2014 Sydney 13th --> 1st
2014 Richmond 14th --> 8th
2014 Adelaide 15th --> 10th
2014 Collingwood 9th --> 11th
2014 Western Bulldogs 10th --> 14th
2014 Greater Western Sydney 8th --> 16th
2015 Port Adelaide 13th --> 9th
2015 Geelong 16th --> 10th
2015 Greater Western Sydney 2nd --> 11th
2015 Collingwood 3rd --> 12th
2016 St Kilda 12th --> 9th
2016 Port Adelaide 11th --> 10th
2016 Melbourne 10th --> 11th
2016 Gold Coast 5th --> 15th
2017 Sydney 16th --> 6th
2017 Essendon 11th --> 7th
2017 St Kilda 10th --> 11th
2017 Gold Coast 9th --> 17th
2018 Melbourne 12th --> 5th
2018 Adelaide 9th --> 12th
2019 Richmond 13th --> 3rd
2019 Essendon 12th --> 8th
2019 Port Adelaide 11th --> 10th
2019 Fremantle 7th --> 13th
2019 St Kilda 5th --> 14th
2019 Gold Coast 6th --> 18th
2020 Richmond 14th --> 3rd
2020 West Coast 16th --> 5th
2020 Western Bulldogs 13th --> 7th
2020 Melbourne 15th --> 9th
2020 Essendon 8th --> 13th
2020 Gold Coast 2nd --> 14th
2020 Hawthorn 4th --> 15th
2020 North Melbourne 9th --> 17th

So 1 or 2 may move a bit. Every few years theres a team who move up a lot.