Which team is in most trouble age wise - 2018 edition

[RUNVS]

I do this thread every year but I think it usually becomes an interesting discussion. Only problem is this year I suspect the Swans are going to be talked about a lot more based on where we are on the list I made.

Here is the 2017 version https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/which-team-is-in-most-trouble-age-wise-2017-edition.1155491/

So basically, I listed every player on your list that is as of this moment over the age of 29. Now some would say 29 is too young for this list, but I don't think so as 29 is about the minimum age where some players begin to decline in on field performance. Of course then you have guys like Shaun Burgoyne who seems to defy age, but you also have players like Nick Smith, who is only 29 and does not seem to be the player he once was.

Either way though by the time a player is 29 clubs should have at the very least started making preparations for that player no longer being at the club.

So in 2018, which lists do you think are in the most trouble when it comes to the age of their players, and possibly having players who will be able to replace them when they are gone, or worse, not having players in the pipeline who can replace them.

So here it the list

Hawthorn (7)
(Burgoyne 35.2, Roughead 30.11, Puopolo 30.1, Birchall 29.11, Henderson 29.3, Frawley 29.3, Smith 29.0)

Sydney (7)
(McVeigh 32.8, Grundy 31.7, Franklin 30.11, Tippett 30.7, Jack 30.6, Smith 29.6, Kennedy 29.6)

Collingwood (6)
(Wells 32.11, Dunn 30.7, Goldsack 30.7, Pendlebury 29.11, Varcoe 29.8, Mayne 29.2)

Fremantle (6)
(Sandilands 35.0, Johnson 33.2, Mundy 32.5, Pearce 31.8, Ballantyne 30.5, Spurr 30.5)

Adelaide (5)
(Gibson 31.7, Betts 31.1, Douglas 30.10, Jacobs 29.8, MacKay 29.5)

Carlton (5)
(Simpson 33.7, Thomas 30.6, Murphy 30.5, A.Silvagni 30.3, Rowe 30.1)

Geelong (5)
(Ablett Jnr 33.7, Taylor 31.6, Selwood 29.7, Hawkins 29.5, Crameri 29.4)

Gold Coast (5)
(Rischitelli 31.11, Rosa 31.1, Barlow 30.0, Harbrow 29.5, Hanley 29.1)

Port Adelaide (5)
(Westhoff 31.3, Thomas 29.10, Ryder 29.9, Gray 29.9, Boak 29.5)

Richmond (5)
(Hampson 29.9, Grigg 29.8, Houli 29.7, Edwards 29.2, Riewoldt 29.2)

Essendon (4)
(Goddard 32.7, Baguley 30.7, Leuenberger 29.9, Hooker 29.2)

GWS (4)
(Shaw 32.1, Griffen 31.5, Deledio 30.8, Mohr 29.2)

Melbourne (4)
(Vince 32.3, Lewis 31.8, Pedersen 30.9, Jones 29.11)

North Melbourne (4)
(Waite 34.11, Thompson 31.7, Higgins 29.10, Goldstein 29.6)

St Kilda (4)
(Gilbert 31.4, Armitage 29.6, Geary 29.6, Brown 29.0)

Western Bulldogs (4)
(Morris 35.0, Picken 31.5, Dickson 30.3, Suckling 29.5)

West Coast (4)
(Lecras 31.4, Kennedy 30.4, Hrun 30.4, MacKenzie 29.7)

Brisbane (2)
(Hodge 33.6, Martin 31.1)

 

[RUNVS]

For Sydney it is a long list but I hope it is managable

Sydney (7)
(McVeigh, Grundy, Franklin, Tippett, Jack, Smith, Kennedy)

Grundy > Melican/Aliir
McVeigh > Hopefully one of Stoddart or Ling, but maybe keep Jones down back
Tippett > Not sure he is always best 22, but someone like Sinclair or Naismith
Jack > Definitely close to not being best 22, might get pushed out in 2018 by someone like Hayward or Florent
Smith > Not an easy person to replace, don't have an obvious replacement in mind
Kennedy > Always hard to replace, but hopefully one of Heeney or Mills will be able to do the role
Buddy > Still has another 5 years on his contract, but if he goes down or performance drops it is hard to tell who would replace him.

 

[Established1870]

Brisbane.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

From a North age perspective:
Waite (34 years 11 months), Thompson (31 years 8 months) Higgins (29 years 11 months), Goldstein (29 years 6 months).

Higgins is the only one that looks to have a few years left in him, probably the 2-3 year mark. Form wise, only Goldstein appears to be struggling a little bit. 2018 will more than likely be the last year for Waite, Thompson and probably Goldstein.

Replacements:
Higgins - LDU/Simpkin
Thompson - Nielson/Durdin
Waite - McKay/Larkey
Goldstein - Pruess

Higgins and Goldstein replacements appear to be sorted, however Thompson has been a reliable defender for years and his replacements are very inexperienced and KPP's always take a bit longer. Waite's replacements are just as raw as Thompson's and will be the hardest to replace at this stage heading into 2018.

A young list overall, so age is not the problem with the list at the moment.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I know it's a bit of an ask but it would make it easier to answer if you put all their current ages in brackets after their names, as there is a big difference between being say 29yo and 34yo.

Perhaps others could post the ages of those from their club on the list so that you don't have to do all the research yourself, then you could update them in the OP.

For us, Armitage, Geary and Brown are 29yo (Brown only by 2-3 weeks) and Gilbert is 31.

 

[RUNVS]

I know it's a bit of an ask but it would make it easier to answer if you put all their current ages in brackets after their names.

Perhaps others could post the ages of those from their club on the list so that you don't have to do all the research yourself, then you could update them in the OP.

I can do that. Might take a little time and it will be something like 29.8 or something, meaning 29 years and 8 months.

 

[Altum Volantes]

WCE are probably 1 season removed from age itself being a major pressing issue, having shed a number of over 30s last year.

Kennedy is the prime player ‘of age’ now - he is still performing well and should be good for at least a couple more seasons, injury permitting. The club drafted the best available Key forward prospect too which shows an eye to the future.

Next would be Hurn - still an important player and skipper (for now), but probably less crucial than he was this time last year with Yeo’s strong work across half back.

LeCras and MacKenzie - both former club champions - are on new 1 year deals. LeCras had a disappointing 2017 by his standards and will face pressure from the likes of Rioli and Ryan (and maybe Allen) to retain that small/medium marking role.

MacKenzie actually finished the year quite well but Barass if continues to improves his 1 on 1 work I can see him being squeezed out by seasons end.

 

[TedDougChris]

Bulldogs perspective.

Dickson had an injury hit year last year, but started later in this career so we are hoping he still has a few miles left. Very good forward and we would be hoping he improved on last year if we are to improve as a side, and to offset Stringers departure. Players like Greene and Lipinski might be looked at in his spot during the next 12 -18 months.

Suckling annoys some of the supporters, but performed well in our B&F, so clearly the coaches like him. Has obvious strengths and weaknesses. No one at the club can kick like he does, but sometimes used out of position IMO. Nearing the end, hoping he comes under pressure from the kids this year.

Picken - good year, not great. Given his work ethic, expecting a similar year.

Morris is the big concern. Backline general, leader and teacher. Can play tall or small. But is getting increasingly vulnerable to injury. I want him to play forever, but appears to be getting close to the end. We have depth in KPP's, but players like Morris aren't easy to find.

So, Morris and Dickson are our two big concerns, and hardest to replace. Would expect more consistency from Picken and Suckling, but perhaps not at their peak levels in the coming years.

 

[RUNVS]

I know it's a bit of an ask but it would make it easier to answer if you put all their current ages in brackets after their names, as there is a big difference between being say 29yo and 34yo.

Perhaps others could post the ages of those from their club on the list so that you don't have to do all the research yourself, then you could update them in the OP.

For us, Armitage, Geary and Brown are 29yo (Brown only by 2-3 weeks) and Gilbert is 31.

Done. I hope people don't mind the format I chose.

 

[ScarlettFever]

Geelong (5)
(Ablett Jnr 33.7, Taylor 31.6, Selwood 29.7, Hawkins 29.5, Crameri 29.4)

Crameri hasn't played a game for the club, so won't be too hard to replace.

Ablett Jnr's manager reckons he has 5 years left so no problem there. However, if the isn't the case for whatever reason then obviously will be a large loss assuming he plays the same as last year with less injuries and doesn't fall right off the perch.

Selly is an issue. No one will replace him because there isn't many players like him. Just going to have to hope he has a few good years left.

Hawkins is our only main forward which is a blessing and a curse. Maybe without him we might have to try something different which may turn out to be a good thing. Problem is our forward stocks aren't great at the moment. Maybe buzz will continue to improve but that's wishful thinking.

Taylor is another big loss. If he finished at the end of this season, we will likely find our KPD stocks a little low.

 

[RUNVS]

Also if anyone is interested, this is the age breakdown, and as you can see once a player hits 30 or 31 there is a huge drop off

29 to 30 = 36 players
30 to 31 = 21 players
31 to 32 = 15 players
32 to 33 = 6 players
33 to 34 = 4 players
34 to 35 = 1 player
35 to 36 = 3 players

So as you can see, for over half the current 29-year-old players, they will be retired within 2 years.

 

[owen87]

Of the top 8 contenders I’d have said (in no particular order); Geelong, Sydney and West Coast are all on a timer.

Franklin, Kennedy, Smith, Jack & McVeigh are all still best 22 and will be hard to replace.

Kennedy is the big one that anchors WCE’s forward line.

Hawkins, Selwood and Taylor are still very important to the structure of the Geelong side (Ablett we can all guess will be but hasn’t played a game yet).

North probably has the most important older group, but is clearly rebuilding so I don’t think they’ll be too worried about the older brigade.

Hawthorn has some important players such as Roughead, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Birchall and Smith that don’t have clear replacements either.

Most of the rest aren’t heavily reliant on the older group so don’t seem like they’ll be too much worse off.

 

[Gavin Excell]

WCE are probably 1 season removed from age itself being a major pressing issue, having shed a number of over 30s last year.

Kennedy is the prime player ‘of age’ now - he is still performing well and should be good for at least a couple more seasons, injury permitting. The club drafted the best available Key forward prospect too which shows an eye to the future.

Next would be Hurn - still an important player and skipper (for now), but probably less crucial than he was this time last year with Yeo’s strong work across half back.

LeCras and MacKenzie - both former club champions - are on new 1 year deals. LeCras had a disappointing 2017 by his standards and will face pressure from the likes of Rioli and Ryan (and maybe Allen) to retain that small/medium marking role.

MacKenzie actually finished the year quite well but Barass if continues to improves his 1 on 1 work I can see him being squeezed out by seasons end.

Le Cras is still on the list?

Wow

 

[aussierulesrules]

Fair to say we're in a pretty good position in this regard now.

Armitage is the one who I would say is the best of our 4, but we now have Steele, Dunstan and Stevens in our best 22/23 who play a very similar role, and there's already a big doubt on whether it's wise for us to play all 4 of them in the same side- and Armo only played two games this year, and struggled last year off the back of pretty much no preseason and a significant back issue- so we're already in a good position to be able to cover him. That is only likely to improve, if say Freeman and Clark develop as hoped from here as well. There's now huge competition for his spot, where two seasons ago there was basically none.

Geary is obviously captaining the side now, but given the fact he's very ordinary by foot and doesn't offer much offensively, we'll mostly only need to replace his ability to defend and his leadership/experience, and Daniel McKenzie and Bailey Rice are both developing well as future replacement options in the BP- with Rice in particular a much better kick. He was very stiff to not get a debut this year, off the back of good VFL form. Ben Paton who we just drafted may be another potential option down the track. Jarryn is mega-fit though, so could easily enough play for 5 more years.

Like Gears, Nathan Brown is another in our backline who is very average by foot and he offers even less offensively (averaged just 6 disposals and 0.5 marks in his last 10 games this year!), so with the way the game is played these days, I'd say the sooner someone like Hugh Goddard or Logan Austin are putting huge pressure on his spot, the better. Hopefully that will happen this year, with both returning from injury affected seasons.

Gilbert is the only one over 29yo in this group, at 31yo, and he will be harder to replace than most who don't barrack for us probably realise, as he just does what's asked of him week after week, and is able to play literally every position on the ground if we need him to plug a hole, and down back he can play on so many different types. He's also the best suited on our list to the 3rd-tall role down back that he mostly plays, and his tackling and speed are also close to the best in our side. He is of course also wonky by foot and prone to brain-fades though, so the better kicking and decision-making of potential replacement options like Brandon White and Nick Coffield would be welcome. Given that he's generally an extremely fit type and missed a lot of footy in his late 20's, he may be able to squeeze out 3 more seasons, if needed, tho (31/32/33yo).

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Take burgoyne out and the age profile isnt all that bad, rough should have at least 3 years left but we will need a replacement for him in the near future, exactly why were chasing lynch and from all reports are a good chance at getting him. We are working hard getting that age profile where it needs to be so contrary to popular belief were actually not in as much trouble as they think.

 

[Slysh]

Take burgoyne out and the age profile isnt all that bad, rough should have at least 3 years left but we will need a replacement for him in the near future, exactly why were chasing lynch and from all reports are a good chance at getting him. We are working hard getting that age profile where it needs to be so contrary to popular belief were actually not in as much trouble as they think.

Yea no doubt Burgers will hurt us when he leaves but i think we have time to replace the rest of the players on the list. Some will already be on our list and it is just a matter of giving them time and games at the top level.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Of the top 8 contenders I’d have said (in no particular order); Geelong, Sydney and West Coast are all on a timer.

Franklin, Kennedy, Smith, Jack & McVeigh are all still best 22 and will be hard to replace.

Kennedy is the big one that anchors WCE’s forward line.

Hawkins, Selwood and Taylor are still very important to the structure of the Geelong side (Ablett we can all guess will be but hasn’t played a game yet).

North probably has the most important older group, but is clearly rebuilding so I don’t think they’ll be too worried about the older brigade.

Hawthorn has some important players such as Roughead, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Birchall and Smith that don’t have clear replacements either.

Most of the rest aren’t heavily reliant on the older group so don’t seem like they’ll be too much worse off.

Puopolo' s replacement got traded in last year. Impey will play across half back in the short term but will shift forward when the opportunity arises. There's also a guy waiting in the wings who hawks officials and fans are very bullish about ollie hanrahan. Birchall will be hard to fully replace but burton did a great job last year. Not all doom and gloom.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Fair to say we're in a pretty good position in this regard now.

Armitage is the one who I would say is the best of our 4, but we now have Steele, Dunstan and Stevens in our best 22/23 who play a very similar role, and there's already a big doubt on whether it's wise for us to play all 4 of them in the same side- and Armo only played two games this year and struggled last year, off the back of pretty much no preseason and a significant back issue- so we're already in a good position to be able to cover him, and that is only likely to improve, if say Freeman and Clark develop as hoped from here as well.

Geary is obviously captaining the side now, but given the fact he's very ordinary by foot and doesn't offer much offensively, we'll mostly only need to replace his ability to defend and his leadership/experience, and Daniel McKenzie and Bailey Rice are both developing well as future replacement options in the BP- with Rice in particular a much better kick. He was very stiff to not get a debut this year, off the back of good VFL form. Ben Paton who we just drafted may be another potential option down the track. Jarryn is mega-fit though, so could easily enough play for 5 more years.

Like Gears, Nathan Brown is another in our backline who is very average by foot and he offers even less offensively (averaged just 6 disposals and 0.5 marks in his last 10 games this year), so with the way the game is played these days, I'd say the sooner someone like Hugh Goddard or Logan Austin are putting huge pressure on his spot, the better. Hopefully that will happen this year, with both returning from injury affected seasons.

Gilbert is the oldest of this group at 31yo and he will be harder to replace than most who don't barrack for us realise, as he just does what's asked of him week after week, and is able to play literally every position on the ground, if we need him to plug a hole, and down back he can play on so many different types. He's also the best suited on our list to the 3rd-tall role down back, that he mostly plays, and his tackling and speed are also close to the best in our side. He is of course also wonky by foot and prone to brain-fades though, so the better kicking and decision-making of potential replacement options like Brandon White and Nick Coffield would be welcome. Given that he's generally an extremely fit type and missed a lot of footy in his late 20's, he may even be able to squeeze out 3 more seasons if needed tho (31/32/33yo).

Ive always thought Saints would be better without Gilbert

 

[B4Bear]

How can anyone in the poll vote for North?

Not that age should be a metric of measurement for a team.

 

[mike123]

Ablett Jnr's manager reckons he has 5 years left so no problem there.

I don't think his manager is the most reliable source

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Of the top 8 contenders I’d have said (in no particular order); Geelong, Sydney and West Coast are all on a timer.

Franklin, Kennedy, Smith, Jack & McVeigh are all still best 22 and will be hard to replace.

Kennedy is the big one that anchors WCE’s forward line.

Hawkins, Selwood and Taylor are still very important to the structure of the Geelong side (Ablett we can all guess will be but hasn’t played a game yet).

North probably has the most important older group, but is clearly rebuilding so I don’t think they’ll be too worried about the older brigade.

Hawthorn has some important players such as Roughead, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Birchall and Smith that don’t have clear replacements either.

Most of the rest aren’t heavily reliant on the older group so don’t seem like they’ll be too much worse off.

North only have 4 nearing or are 30 and above, with Goldstein having Pruess as a replacement and Thompson having three blokes potentially ready to replace him. Higgins hasn’t even reached 30 yet, with Waite the only one difficult to replace.

Struggling to see how north has the most important older group or even receiving votes, especially considering they have the third youngest list.

 

[Bestbird]

Port have definately gone all in this year when you consider Ryder Westhoff Boak and Gray are entering the drop off zone

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Puopolo' s replacement got traded in last year. Impey will play across half back in the short term but will shift forward when the opportunity arises. There's also a guy waiting in the wings who hawks officials and fans are very bullish about ollie hanrahan. Birchall will be hard to fully replace but burton did a great job last year. Not all doom and gloom.

Connor Glass is the heir apparent to Birchall's role, I'd have thought.

Ollie is one of the most exciting kids I've seen at Box Hill, and I just hope he can put it all together because he is electric.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Ive always thought Saints would be better without Gilbert

I understand why many would have that view, but there's a reason he hasn't been dropped in probably 10 years that I remember though, even through injury-riddled periods, different coaching groups and form slumps.

Defensively he's very good and experienced and he can play on so many different types, and in particular the dangerous types that can be a match-up nightmare, because you need someone who can go with them for speed and on the ground, and also in the air, which he can do. He doesn't lose too many contests, except to the Franklin types, who have say 10kg and height on him, and he's also very good at zoning off and going 3rd-up to spoil. This past season he was even doing our back-up rucking a lot of the time, as Bruce was so terrible at it, so he's probably our best option for that.

When he's in the team and going well we're clearly better for it IMO, and after a few heavily injury affected years (plus the whole Kim Duthie thing, which I think had a big affect on him), this past season was his best in a long time, and heading back towards his 2009/2010 best (where teams started to regularly tag him off HB and he came 3rd in our B&F in 2010, as one of the youngest in the team). He's also now the last remaining one from our grand final teams, so his experience is valuable.

 

[donbooger]

4 of our best 5 players so we are certainly old. We are top 4 though so we are where we should be. Age is only an issue if your old and rubbish.

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